<p>当 伊朗战争爆发 时，许多人认为这场战争会迅速解决。三周过去，这一假设正在崩溃。</p>
<p>受益于霍尔木兹海峡关闭的股票与需要其开放的股票之间的差距已扩大至超过 32 个百分点，这一分歧表明投资者正在重新调整以应对持续数月而非数天的冲突。</p>
<p>一篮子 10 个受益于霍尔木兹海峡关闭或严重中断的公司——能源炼油商、化肥生产商、化工、国防和无人机公司——平均上涨了 17.55%。</p>
<p>一篮子 10 个受益于海湾航运正常化的公司——邮轮公司、航空公司、物流公司和黄金——平均下跌了 15.35%。</p>
<h2>霍尔木兹 ‘重新开放’ 与 ‘关闭’ 股票篮子比较：这 20 只股票迄今表现如何</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/17162133/image-370-1024x641.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/17162133/image-370-1024x641.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Country ETF Tracker 的伊朗战争市场筛选器</p>
<h2>‘霍尔木兹关闭’ 篮子：谁在海峡关闭时获胜</h2>
<p>能源炼油商、化肥生产商、国防相关技术公司和无人机制造商主导了这一篮子。</p>
<p>它们的共同特征是：每个公司都直接或间接受益于高油价、海上中断或增加的军事开支。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>行业</th>
<th>自 2 月 27 日收盘以来的回报</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Red Cat Holdings</strong> (NASDAQ: RCAT)</td>
<td>国防 / 无人机</td>
<td>+40.95%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>CF Industries Holdings</strong> (NYSE: CF)</td>
<td>化肥 / 天然气</td>
<td>+25.53%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>LyondellBasell Industries</strong> (NYSE: LYB)</td>
<td>石化</td>
<td>+24.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Marathon Petroleum Corp.</strong> (NYSE: MPC)</td>
<td>炼油</td>
<td>+18.15%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Karman Space &amp; Defense</strong> (NYSE: KRMN)</td>
<td>国防 / 航空航天</td>
<td>+16.06%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Valero Energy Corp.</strong> (NYSE: VLO)</td>
<td>炼油</td>
<td>+15.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Palantir Technologies Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: PLTR)</td>
<td>国防科技 / 人工智能</td>
<td>+12.84%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Phillips 66</strong> (NYSE: PSX)</td>
<td>炼油 / 中游</td>
<td>+12.25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Chevron Corp.</strong> (NYSE: CVX)</td>
<td>综合能源</td>
<td>+6.33%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Mosaic Co.</strong> (NYSE: MOS)</td>
<td>化肥 / 钾肥</td>
<td>+3.81%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>Red Cat Holdings</strong> 以 40.95% 的涨幅领先于这一篮子股票——这一显著的涨幅是由于对军事无人机系统需求预期的激增所驱动。</p>
<p>化肥生产商 <strong>CF Industries Holdings Inc.</strong> 和 <strong>Mosaic Co.</strong> 受益于通过海湾的氨和钾肥供应链面临严重中断。</p>
<p>像 <strong>Marathon Petroleum Corp.</strong> 和 <strong>Valero Energy Corp.</strong> 这样的炼油商因中东精炼产品流动中断而受益于裂解价差的扩大，推动了国内加工商的炼油利润。</p>
<p><strong>Palantir Technologies Inc.</strong> 上涨了 12.84%，因为国防人工智能合同的投机上升。</p>
<h2>‘霍尔木兹重新开放’ 篮子：谁需要海峡开放</h2>
<p>航空公司、邮轮运营商和地面货运公司构成了这一篮子的核心。</p>
<p>更高的航空燃油成本、重新规划的航运路线以及消费者对国际旅行信心的减弱对每个公司造成了叠加的冲击。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>行业</th>
<th>回报</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Alaska Air Group Inc.</strong> (NYSE: ALK)</td>
<td>航空公司</td>
<td>−23.80%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Carnival Corp.</strong> (NYSE: CCL)</td>
<td>邮轮公司</td>
<td>−20.14%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings</strong> (NYSE: NCLH)</td>
<td>邮轮公司</td>
<td>−17.37%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>American Airlines Group Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AAL)</td>
<td>航空公司</td>
<td>−17.05%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>United Parcel Service Inc.</strong> (NYSE: UPS)</td>
<td>货运 / 物流</td>
<td>−15.48%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Newmont Corp.</strong> (NYSE: NEM)</td>
<td>黄金开采</td>
<td>−14.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: JBHT)</td>
<td>卡车运输 / 货运</td>
<td>−14.16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>United Airlines Holdings Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: UAL)</td>
<td>航空公司</td>
<td>−12.32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.</strong> (NYSE: RCL)</td>
<td>邮轮公司</td>
<td>−9.22%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: ODFL)</td>
<td>LTL 货运</td>
<td>−9.18%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>重新开放篮子捕捉到那些盈利模型依赖于开放供应链、廉价燃料和全球旅行正常化的公司。</p>
<p><strong>Alaska Air Group Inc.</strong> 下跌了 23.80%——在两个篮子中降幅最大——因为航空燃油成本飙升，跨大西洋和跨太平洋航线的经济状况恶化。过去三周，篮子中的三家主要美国航空公司损失了 12% 到 24% 的市值。</p>
<p>邮轮公司受到的打击几乎同样严重。<strong>嘉年华公司</strong> 股价下跌 20.14%，因为海湾航线变得不可行，燃料成本预测大幅上调。</p>
<p><strong>挪威邮轮公司</strong> 股价下跌 17.37%。</p>
<p>物流公司——<strong>联合包裹服务公司、老德明货运公司</strong> 和 <strong>J.B.亨特运输服务公司</strong>——股价均下跌 9% 至 16%，因为全球货运中断和衰退需求风险同时施压。</p>
<p>美国家庭在油泵前的情况也是如此。根据 AAA 的数据，周二全国普通汽油的平均价格上涨至每加仑 3.79 美元，为 2023 年 10 月以来的最高水平。</p>
<h2>伊朗战争可能持续多久？预测市场和分析师的看法</h2>
<p>关于持续时间的最强信号来自预测市场，交易者大幅降低了快速解决的概率。</p>
<p>Polymarket 目前认为霍尔木兹海峡的交通在 4 月 30 日前恢复正常的概率为 26%。</p>
<p>这意味着参与者认为该水道在至少六周内仍然会功能性中断的概率为 74%。</p>
<p>到本月底，美国海军护航的概率仅为 20%。</p>
<p>“我们最初估计冲突将持续 1 至 3 周，最多两个月。随着战争的发展，我们现在预计会接近两个月，尽管动态仍然是自我限制的，”<strong>Dan Alamariu</strong>，Alpine Macro 的首席地缘政治策略师，本周在一份报告中表示。</p>
<p>“伊朗似乎越来越在主导节奏。该政权愿意承受惩罚以施加经济和政治压力，” 他补充道。</p>
<p>上周，高盛将其布伦特原油价格预测上调 20%，预计 3 月平均为每桶 100 美元，4 月降至 85 美元，假设中断持续三周。</p>
<p>该银行警告称，如果关闭延续到两个月，其年末预测将从每桶 71 美元上调至 93 美元。</p>
<p><strong>泰勒·古德斯皮德</strong>，埃克森美孚的首席经济学家，告诉 CNBC，存在 “更多的情景，以及更可能的情景，其中霍尔木兹海峡有效关闭的时间更长”，而不是正常交通迅速恢复的情景。</p>
<p>在外交或海军力量改变霍尔木兹海峡的现状之前，这两个篮子的价差是华尔街对这场战争持续时间的最清晰实时衡量。</p>
<p><em>照片：来自 Shutterstock.com 的 Below the Sky</em></p>

美国油气勘探与生产 ETF - iShares

美国布伦特原油期货基金

<p>正在进行的伊朗战争导致市场发生重大变化，受益于霍尔木兹海峡关闭的股票与依赖其开放的股票之间的差距达到了 33 点。一篮子能源和防御类股票平均上涨了 17.55%，而与运输相关的股票则下跌了 15.35%。分析师预测冲突将持续，霍尔木兹海峡继续受到干扰的可能性为 74%。高盛也上调了其布伦特原油价格预测，预计由于冲突对石油供应的影响，3 月份的平均价格将达到每桶 100 美元</p>

<p>When the Iran war erupted, many assumed it would have a quick resolution. Three weeks on, that assumption is crumbling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当 伊朗战争爆发 时，许多人认为这场战争会迅速解决。三周过去，这一假设正在崩溃。</p>
</div><p>The spread between stocks that benefit from a closed Strait of Hormuz and those that need it open has ballooned to more than 32 percentage points, a divergence that suggests investors are repositioning for a conflict measured in months, not days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>受益于霍尔木兹海峡关闭的股票与需要其开放的股票之间的差距已扩大至超过 32 个百分点，这一分歧表明投资者正在重新调整以应对持续数月而非数天的冲突。</p>
</div><p>A basket of 10 names positioned for a closed or severely disrupted Strait — energy refiners, fertilizer producers, chemicals, defense and drone companies — has risen an average of 17.55%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一篮子 10 个受益于霍尔木兹海峡关闭或严重中断的公司——能源炼油商、化肥生产商、化工、国防和无人机公司——平均上涨了 17.55%。</p>
</div><p>A basket of 10 names positioned for Gulf shipping normalization — cruise lines, airlines, logistics companies and gold — has fallen an average of 15.35%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一篮子 10 个受益于海湾航运正常化的公司——邮轮公司、航空公司、物流公司和黄金——平均下跌了 15.35%。</p>
</div><h2>Hormuz ‘Reopen’ vs. ‘Closed’ Stock Basket Comparison: How These 20 Stocks Fared So Far</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>霍尔木兹 ‘重新开放’ 与 ‘关闭’ 股票篮子比较：这 20 只股票迄今表现如何</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/17162133/image-370-1024x641.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/17162133/image-370-1024x641.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Country ETF Tracker’s Iran War Market Screener</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Country ETF Tracker 的伊朗战争市场筛选器</p>
</div><h2>The ‘Hormuz Closed’ Basket: Who Wins When Strait Stays Shut</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>‘霍尔木兹关闭’ 篮子：谁在海峡关闭时获胜</h2>
</div><p>Energy refiners, fertilizer producers, defense-adjacent technology companies, and drone manufacturers dominate this basket.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源炼油商、化肥生产商、国防相关技术公司和无人机制造商主导了这一篮子。</p>
</div><p>Their shared characteristic: each benefits directly or indirectly from elevated oil prices, maritime disruption, or increased military spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它们的共同特征是：每个公司都直接或间接受益于高油价、海上中断或增加的军事开支。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company</th>
<th>Sector</th>
<th>Return Since Feb. 27 close</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Red Cat Holdings</strong> (NASDAQ: RCAT)</td>
<td>Defense / Drones</td>
<td>+40.95%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>CF Industries Holdings</strong> (NYSE: CF)</td>
<td>Fertilizers / Nat. Gas</td>
<td>+25.53%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>LyondellBasell Industries</strong> (NYSE: LYB)</td>
<td>Petrochemicals</td>
<td>+24.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Marathon Petroleum Corp.</strong> (NYSE: MPC)</td>
<td>Refining</td>
<td>+18.15%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Karman Space &amp; Defense</strong> (NYSE: KRMN)</td>
<td>Defense / Aerospace</td>
<td>+16.06%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Valero Energy Corp.</strong> (NYSE: VLO)</td>
<td>Refining</td>
<td>+15.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Palantir Technologies Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: PLTR)</td>
<td>Defense Tech / AI</td>
<td>+12.84%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Phillips 66</strong> (NYSE: PSX)</td>
<td>Refining / Midstream</td>
<td>+12.25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Chevron Corp.</strong> (NYSE: CVX)</td>
<td>Integrated Energy</td>
<td>+6.33%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Mosaic Co.</strong> (NYSE: MOS)</td>
<td>Fertilizers / Potash</td>
<td>+3.81%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>行业</th>
<th>自 2 月 27 日收盘以来的回报</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Red Cat Holdings</strong> (NASDAQ: RCAT)</td>
<td>国防 / 无人机</td>
<td>+40.95%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>CF Industries Holdings</strong> (NYSE: CF)</td>
<td>化肥 / 天然气</td>
<td>+25.53%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>LyondellBasell Industries</strong> (NYSE: LYB)</td>
<td>石化</td>
<td>+24.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Marathon Petroleum Corp.</strong> (NYSE: MPC)</td>
<td>炼油</td>
<td>+18.15%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Karman Space &amp; Defense</strong> (NYSE: KRMN)</td>
<td>国防 / 航空航天</td>
<td>+16.06%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Valero Energy Corp.</strong> (NYSE: VLO)</td>
<td>炼油</td>
<td>+15.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Palantir Technologies Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: PLTR)</td>
<td>国防科技 / 人工智能</td>
<td>+12.84%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Phillips 66</strong> (NYSE: PSX)</td>
<td>炼油 / 中游</td>
<td>+12.25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Chevron Corp.</strong> (NYSE: CVX)</td>
<td>综合能源</td>
<td>+6.33%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Mosaic Co.</strong> (NYSE: MOS)</td>
<td>化肥 / 钾肥</td>
<td>+3.81%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p><strong>Red Cat Holdings</strong> leads the basket with a 40.95% gain — a striking move driven by surging demand expectations for military drone systems.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Red Cat Holdings</strong> 以 40.95% 的涨幅领先于这一篮子股票——这一显著的涨幅是由于对军事无人机系统需求预期的激增所驱动。</p>
</div><p>Fertilizer producers <strong>CF Industries Holdings Inc.</strong> and <strong>Mosaic Co.</strong> gain as ammonia and potash supply chains routed through the Gulf face severe disruption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>化肥生产商 <strong>CF Industries Holdings Inc.</strong> 和 <strong>Mosaic Co.</strong> 受益于通过海湾的氨和钾肥供应链面临严重中断。</p>
</div><p>Refiners like <strong>Marathon Petroleum Corp.</strong> and <strong>Valero Energy Corp.</strong> benefit from crack spread expansion as Middle Eastern refined product flows are disrupted, pushing up refinery margins for domestic processors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像 <strong>Marathon Petroleum Corp.</strong> 和 <strong>Valero Energy Corp.</strong> 这样的炼油商因中东精炼产品流动中断而受益于裂解价差的扩大，推动了国内加工商的炼油利润。</p>
</div><p><strong>Palantir Technologies Inc.</strong> is up 12.84% as defense AI contract speculation rises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Palantir Technologies Inc.</strong> 上涨了 12.84%，因为国防人工智能合同的投机上升。</p>
</div><h2>The ‘Hormuz Reopen” Basket: Who Needs The Strait Open</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>‘霍尔木兹重新开放’ 篮子：谁需要海峡开放</h2>
</div><p>Airlines, cruise operators, and surface freight companies form the core of this basket.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>航空公司、邮轮运营商和地面货运公司构成了这一篮子的核心。</p>
</div><p>Higher jet fuel costs, rerouted shipping lanes, and weakening consumer confidence in international travel have hit each name with compounding force.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更高的航空燃油成本、重新规划的航运路线以及消费者对国际旅行信心的减弱对每个公司造成了叠加的冲击。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company</th>
<th>Sector</th>
<th>Return</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Alaska Air Group Inc.</strong> (NYSE: ALK)</td>
<td>Airlines</td>
<td>−23.80%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Carnival Corp.</strong> (NYSE: CCL)</td>
<td>Cruise Lines</td>
<td>−20.14%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings</strong> (NYSE: NCLH)</td>
<td>Cruise Lines</td>
<td>−17.37%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>American Airlines Group Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AAL)</td>
<td>Airlines</td>
<td>−17.05%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>United Parcel Service Inc.</strong> (NYSE: UPS)</td>
<td>Freight / Logistics</td>
<td>−15.48%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Newmont Corp.</strong> (NYSE: NEM)</td>
<td>Gold Mining</td>
<td>−14.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: JBHT)</td>
<td>Trucking / Freight</td>
<td>−14.16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>United Airlines Holdings Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: UAL)</td>
<td>Airlines</td>
<td>−12.32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.</strong> (NYSE: RCL)</td>
<td>Cruise Lines</td>
<td>−9.22%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: ODFL)</td>
<td>LTL Freight</td>
<td>−9.18%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>行业</th>
<th>回报</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Alaska Air Group Inc.</strong> (NYSE: ALK)</td>
<td>航空公司</td>
<td>−23.80%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Carnival Corp.</strong> (NYSE: CCL)</td>
<td>邮轮公司</td>
<td>−20.14%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings</strong> (NYSE: NCLH)</td>
<td>邮轮公司</td>
<td>−17.37%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>American Airlines Group Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AAL)</td>
<td>航空公司</td>
<td>−17.05%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>United Parcel Service Inc.</strong> (NYSE: UPS)</td>
<td>货运 / 物流</td>
<td>−15.48%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Newmont Corp.</strong> (NYSE: NEM)</td>
<td>黄金开采</td>
<td>−14.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: JBHT)</td>
<td>卡车运输 / 货运</td>
<td>−14.16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>United Airlines Holdings Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: UAL)</td>
<td>航空公司</td>
<td>−12.32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.</strong> (NYSE: RCL)</td>
<td>邮轮公司</td>
<td>−9.22%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: ODFL)</td>
<td>LTL 货运</td>
<td>−9.18%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>The reopen basket captures names whose earnings models depend on open supply chains, cheap fuel and global travel normalization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重新开放篮子捕捉到那些盈利模型依赖于开放供应链、廉价燃料和全球旅行正常化的公司。</p>
</div><p><strong>Alaska Air Group Inc.</strong> has fallen 23.80% — the sharpest decline across both baskets — as jet fuel costs surge and the economics of transatlantic and transpacific routes deteriorate. The three major U.S. airlines in the basket have lost between 12% and 24% of their value over the past three weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Alaska Air Group Inc.</strong> 下跌了 23.80%——在两个篮子中降幅最大——因为航空燃油成本飙升，跨大西洋和跨太平洋航线的经济状况恶化。过去三周，篮子中的三家主要美国航空公司损失了 12% 到 24% 的市值。</p>
</div><p>Cruise lines have been hit almost as hard. <strong>Carnival Corp.</strong> is down 20.14% as Gulf itineraries become unviable and fuel-cost forecasts are revised sharply higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>邮轮公司受到的打击几乎同样严重。<strong>嘉年华公司</strong> 股价下跌 20.14%，因为海湾航线变得不可行，燃料成本预测大幅上调。</p>
</div><p><strong>Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd</strong>. has shed 17.37%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>挪威邮轮公司</strong> 股价下跌 17.37%。</p>
</div><p>Logistics names — <strong>United Parcel Service Inc., Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.</strong> and <strong>J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.</strong> — have all fallen between 9% and 16% as global freight disruption and recessionary demand risk weigh simultaneously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>物流公司——<strong>联合包裹服务公司、老德明货运公司</strong> 和 <strong>J.B.亨特运输服务公司</strong>——股价均下跌 9% 至 16%，因为全球货运中断和衰退需求风险同时施压。</p>
</div><p>The gas pump tells the same story for American households. The national average for regular gasoline rose to $3.79 per gallon on Tuesday, the highest since October 2023, according to AAA.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国家庭在油泵前的情况也是如此。根据 AAA 的数据，周二全国普通汽油的平均价格上涨至每加仑 3.79 美元，为 2023 年 10 月以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><h2>How Long Could The Iran War Last? What Prediction Markets And Analysts Are Saying</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伊朗战争可能持续多久？预测市场和分析师的看法</h2>
</div><p>The sharpest signal on duration comes from prediction markets, where traders have sharply marked down the probability of a quick resolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于持续时间的最强信号来自预测市场，交易者大幅降低了快速解决的概率。</p>
</div><p>Polymarket currently assigns a 26% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Polymarket 目前认为霍尔木兹海峡的交通在 4 月 30 日前恢复正常的概率为 26%。</p>
</div><p>This means participants believe there is a 74% chance the waterway remains functionally disrupted for at least six more weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着参与者认为该水道在至少六周内仍然会功能性中断的概率为 74%。</p>
</div><p>The odds of a U.S. Navy escort by the end of this month stand at just 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到本月底，美国海军护航的概率仅为 20%。</p>
</div><p>“We initially estimated the conflict to last 1–3 weeks, with a maximum of two months. As the war unfolds, we now expect something closer to roughly two months, though the dynamics remain self-limiting,” said <strong>Dan Alamariu</strong>, chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro, in a note this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们最初估计冲突将持续 1 至 3 周，最多两个月。随着战争的发展，我们现在预计会接近两个月，尽管动态仍然是自我限制的，”<strong>Dan Alamariu</strong>，Alpine Macro 的首席地缘政治策略师，本周在一份报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>“Iran seems increasingly to be dictating the tempo. The regime is willing to absorb punishment to inflict economic and political pain,” he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“伊朗似乎越来越在主导节奏。该政权愿意承受惩罚以施加经济和政治压力，” 他补充道。</p>
</div><p>Last week, Goldman Sachs revised its Brent price forecast upward by 20%, projecting an average of $100 per barrel in March, declining to $85 in April, on the assumption of a three-week disruption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，高盛将其布伦特原油价格预测上调 20%，预计 3 月平均为每桶 100 美元，4 月降至 85 美元，假设中断持续三周。</p>
</div><p>The bank warned that if the closure extends to two months, its end-of-year forecast would rise from $71 to $93 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该银行警告称，如果关闭延续到两个月，其年末预测将从每桶 71 美元上调至 93 美元。</p>
</div><p><strong>Tyler Goodspeed</strong>, chief economist at ExxonMobil, told CNBC that there are “many more scenarios, and more probable scenarios, in which the Strait remains effectively closed harder for longer” than there are scenarios where normal traffic resumes quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>泰勒·古德斯皮德</strong>，埃克森美孚的首席经济学家，告诉 CNBC，存在 “更多的情景，以及更可能的情景，其中霍尔木兹海峡有效关闭的时间更长”，而不是正常交通迅速恢复的情景。</p>
</div><p>Until either diplomacy or naval force changes the facts on the ground in the Strait, the spread between these two baskets is the clearest real-time measure of how long Wall Street expects this war to last.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在外交或海军力量改变霍尔木兹海峡的现状之前，这两个篮子的价差是华尔街对这场战争持续时间的最清晰实时衡量。</p>
</div><p><em>Photo: Below the Sky on Shutterstock.com</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片：来自 Shutterstock.com 的 Below the Sky</em></p>
</div>

Markets Fear Prolonged Iran War – These 2 'Hormuz Stock Baskets' Show Why

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市场担心伊朗战争的长期化——这两个 “霍尔木兹股票篮子” 揭示了原因