<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/SARB.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1536" height="1024" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/SARB.png"/></p>
<p>南非兰特本周正在复苏，收复自二月份以来的一些近期损失。美元/南非兰特汇率降至 16.62，较本月高点 16.96 略有回落。那么，在南非储备银行（SARB）和美联储的利率决策之前，这一对汇率会继续下跌还是反弹呢？</p>
<h2>南非兰特上涨，消费者通胀下降</h2>
<p>在国家统计局发布最新通胀报告后，美元/南非兰特对继续强劲下跌趋势。</p>
<p>该报告显示，在伊朗战争开始之前，南非的通胀在二月份有所降温。二月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）较上月的 3.5% 上升了 3%。这一报告略好于中位数预期的 3.1%。</p>
<p>剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心通胀，从一月份的 3.4% 降至二月份的 3%。然而，这两个指标在环比上升了 0.4% 和 0.7%。</p>
<p>尽管如此，二月份的通胀报告被视为无效，因为它发生在伊朗战争开始之前。这场战争可能会对南非及其他国家的通胀产生影响，因为它推高了原油、天然气和化肥的价格。</p>
<p>因此，分析师认为，SARB 将在即将于 3 月 26 日召开的会议上维持 6.75% 的利率不变。暂停降息将帮助官员评估持续战争对国内通胀的影响。</p>
<p>持续的战争导致南非兰特和债券被外国人抛售。数据显示，上周非居民出售了 24.5 亿美元的政府债券，这是自 2019 年以来最大的资金外流。这是一个重大转变，因为这些投资者在年初的前两个月购买了债券和股票。</p>
<h2>美联储利率决策</h2>
<p>美元/南非兰特对的最直接催化剂将是即将到来的美联储利率决策，该决策将在今天晚些时候公布。</p>
<p>经济学家预计中央银行将维持利率在 3.50% 至 3.75% 之间不变。</p>
<p>杰罗姆·鲍威尔和其他官员对通胀表示担忧，预计随着能源价格的上涨，通胀将在未来几个月继续上升。分析师认为，如果油价保持在 95 美元以上，通胀将上升至 3%。</p>
<p>尽管如此，银行对滞涨表示担忧，即高通胀与高失业率同时出现的情况。最新数据显示，二月份失业率上升至 4.4%。</p>
<p>另一份报告显示，去年第四季度经济增长速度低于预期。</p>
<h2>美元/南非兰特技术分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/USDZAR-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="3574" height="2106" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/USDZAR-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>美元/南非兰特图表 | 来源：TradingView</em></p>
<p>日线图显示，美元对南非兰特汇率在过去两个月反弹，从 15.64 的低点上升至本月的 16.95 高点。</p>
<p>这一反弹发生在该对形成双底形态和颈线位于 16.42，即今年二月份的最高水平之后。</p>
<p>本周它回落，因为油价基本稳定。然而，它仍然高于 50 日和 100 日指数移动平均线（EMA）。它也保持在超级趋势指标之上。</p>
<p>因此，该对在未来几天可能会恢复上升趋势，可能达到年初至今的高点 16.95。突破该水平将指向更多的涨幅，可能达到关键阻力位 17.50。</p>
<p>这篇文章最初发表于 Invezz，标题为 “南非在美联储和 SARB 决策前复苏的美元/南非兰特预测”。</p>

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<p>南非兰特正在恢复，美元/南非兰特汇率从 16.96 的高点下降至 16.62。这一变化是由于一份报告显示，2 月份消费者通胀率降至 3%。分析师预计，南非储备银行将在对持续的伊朗战争引发的通胀担忧中维持 6.75% 的利率。预计美联储也将维持 3.50% 至 3.75% 之间的利率不变。技术分析表明，如果美元/南非兰特汇率突破 16.95，可能会继续上涨，最终达到 17.50</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/SARB.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/SARB.png"/></p>
<p>The South African rand is staging a comeback this week, paring back some of the recent losses that started in February. The USD/ZAR exchange rate dropped to 16.62, down modestly from this month's high of 16.96. So, will the pair continue falling or rebound ahead of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>南非兰特本周正在复苏，收复自二月份以来的一些近期损失。美元/南非兰特汇率降至 16.62，较本月高点 16.96 略有回落。那么，在南非储备银行（SARB）和美联储的利率决策之前，这一对汇率会继续下跌还是反弹呢？</p>
</div><h2>South African rand rises as consumer inflation falls</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>南非兰特上涨，消费者通胀下降</h2>
</div><p>The USD/ZAR pair continued its strong downward trend on Wednesday after the country’s statistics agency published the latest inflation report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在国家统计局发布最新通胀报告后，美元/南非兰特对继续强劲下跌趋势。</p>
</div><p>This report showed that the country’s inflation cooled in February before the Iran war started. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3% in February compared with 3.5% a month earlier. This report was slightly better than the median estimate of 3.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该报告显示，在伊朗战争开始之前，南非的通胀在二月份有所降温。二月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）较上月的 3.5% 上升了 3%。这一报告略好于中位数预期的 3.1%。</p>
</div><p>Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, dropped from 3.4% in January to 3% in February. However, the two gauges rose 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively on a month-on-month basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心通胀，从一月份的 3.4% 降至二月份的 3%。然而，这两个指标在环比上升了 0.4% 和 0.7%。</p>
</div><p>Still, February's inflation report is seen as a lame duck as it happened before the Iran war started. This war will likely have an impact on inflation in South Africa and other countries as it has pushed crude oil, natural gas, and fertilizer prices higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，二月份的通胀报告被视为无效，因为它发生在伊朗战争开始之前。这场战争可能会对南非及其他国家的通胀产生影响，因为它推高了原油、天然气和化肥的价格。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, analysts believe that SARB will leave interest rates unchanged at 6.75% in the upcoming meeting on March 26. Pausing its rate cuts will help officials assess the impact of the ongoing war on inflation in the country.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，分析师认为，SARB 将在即将于 3 月 26 日召开的会议上维持 6.75% 的利率不变。暂停降息将帮助官员评估持续战争对国内通胀的影响。</p>
</div><p>The ongoing war has led to South African rand and bonds being sold by foreigners. Data shows that non-residents sold $2.45 billion of government bonds last week, the biggest outflow since 2019. This is a big turnaround as these investors bought bonds and stocks in the first two months of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持续的战争导致南非兰特和债券被外国人抛售。数据显示，上周非居民出售了 24.5 亿美元的政府债券，这是自 2019 年以来最大的资金外流。这是一个重大转变，因为这些投资者在年初的前两个月购买了债券和股票。</p>
</div><h2>Federal Reserve interest rate decision</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美联储利率决策</h2>
</div><p>The most immediate catalyst for the USD/ZAR pair will be the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which comes later today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/南非兰特对的最直接催化剂将是即将到来的美联储利率决策，该决策将在今天晚些时候公布。</p>
</div><p>Economists expect the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家预计中央银行将维持利率在 3.50% 至 3.75% 之间不变。</p>
</div><p>Jerome Powell and other officials are concerned about inflation, which is expected to keep rising in the coming months as energy prices jump. Analysts believe that inflation will rise to 3% if oil prices remain above $95.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>杰罗姆·鲍威尔和其他官员对通胀表示担忧，预计随着能源价格的上涨，通胀将在未来几个月继续上升。分析师认为，如果油价保持在 95 美元以上，通胀将上升至 3%。</p>
</div><p>Still, the bank is concerned about stagflation, a situation where high inflation coincides with a high unemployment rate. The most recent data showed that the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，银行对滞涨表示担忧，即高通胀与高失业率同时出现的情况。最新数据显示，二月份失业率上升至 4.4%。</p>
</div><p>Another report showed that the economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the fourth quarter of last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一份报告显示，去年第四季度经济增长速度低于预期。</p>
</div><h2>USD/ZAR technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元/南非兰特技术分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/USDZAR-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/USDZAR-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>USDZAR chart |Source: TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>美元/南非兰特图表 | 来源：TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>The daily timeframe chart shows that the USD to ZAR exchange rate has rebounded in the past two months, moving from a low of 15.64 to a high of 16.95 this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日线图显示，美元对南非兰特汇率在过去两个月反弹，从 15.64 的低点上升至本月的 16.95 高点。</p>
</div><p>This rebound happened after the pair formed a double-bottom pattern and a neckline at 16.42, its highest level in February this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一反弹发生在该对形成双底形态和颈线位于 16.42，即今年二月份的最高水平之后。</p>
</div><p>It has now pulled back this week as oil prices have largely stabilized. Still, it remains above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). It has also remained above the Supertrend indicator.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周它回落，因为油价基本稳定。然而，它仍然高于 50 日和 100 日指数移动平均线（EMA）。它也保持在超级趋势指标之上。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the pair will likely resume the uptrend in the coming days, potentially to the year-to-date high of 16.95. A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to the key resistance level at 17.50.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，该对在未来几天可能会恢复上升趋势，可能达到年初至今的高点 16.95。突破该水平将指向更多的涨幅，可能达到关键阻力位 17.50。</p>
</div><p>The post USD/ZAR forecast as South Africa rebounds ahead of Fed, SARB decisions appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这篇文章最初发表于 Invezz，标题为 “南非在美联储和 SARB 决策前复苏的美元/南非兰特预测”。</p>
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美元/南非兰特的预测：南非在美联储和南非储备银行决策前反弹