<p>作者：马克·霍尔伯特</p>
<p>输球球队的球迷更可能抛售股票，而赢家则不太可能买入</p>
<p>平均而言，股市在疯狂三月期间的表现明显逊色于三月和四月的所有交易日。</p>
<p>疯狂三月来了——所以你可能想在每年 NCAA 一级男子大学篮球锦标赛于 4 月 6 日结束之前减持股票。</p>
<p>这与越来越多的研究结果有关，这些研究记录了在重大体育赛事（包括足球、板球、橄榄球和篮球等）期间股市表现低于平均水平。这些研究可以追溯到一项著名的 2007 年《金融学杂志》上的研究，标题为《体育情绪与股票回报》。</p>
<p>在广受关注的体育赛事期间，股市低于平均回报的原因在于那些支持输球球队的投资者的行为。这些投资者的情绪往往会显著低落，导致他们更可能抛售股票持有，而不太可能买入。最终结果是，股市在这些赛事期间经历低于平均水平的回报。</p>
<p>你可能会想知道，为什么这种负面影响不会被支持赢球球队的投资者的积极情绪所抵消。毕竟，每一次失利都有相应的胜利。然而，研究人员发现几乎没有证据表明这种抵消效应，可能是因为胜利仅意味着球队能够继续参加下一轮比赛，而失利则意味着球队完全出局。因此，根据研究人员的说法，支持输球球队的投资者会比支持赢球球队的投资者更感沮丧。</p>
<p>看看上面的图表。它绘制了自 1982 年以来所有疯狂三月赛事中不同市场指数的平均每日回报，并将其与三月和四月所有交易日的平均回报进行了比较。正如你所看到的，市场 SPX DJIA 在疯狂三月期间的表现明显逊色于三月和四月的所有交易日。（我选择将图表基于自 1982 年以来的数据，因为据《时代》杂志报道，那是 ESPN 解说员布伦特·穆斯伯格首次使用 “疯狂三月” 这个术语来指代 NCAA 锦标赛的时候。）</p>
<p>尤其值得注意的是纳斯达克综合指数 COMP 的表现，它反映了市场中尤其容易受到投资者情绪变化影响的部分。自 1982 年以来，该指数在所有疯狂三月赛事期间实际上产生了平均亏损，而在三月和四月的所有交易日则平均获得收益。</p>
<p>此外，体育情绪今天应该比近年来对市场的影响更大。这是因为输球球队的球迷不仅会因为球队输掉比赛而感到沮丧，还会因为与输掉体育博彩相关的金钱损失而感到不满。咨询公司 H2 Gambling Capital 预计，美国体育博彩在今年的锦标赛期间将接受约 40 亿美元的投注。作为对比，预计二月份超级碗的投注额为 14 亿美元。</p>
<p>底线是：如果你支持的球队参加了疯狂三月锦标赛，尤其是如果你在结果上下注了钱，那么在锦标赛结束之前请保持观望。</p>
<p>马克·霍尔伯特是 MarketWatch 的定期撰稿人。他的霍尔伯特评级跟踪支付固定费用进行审计的投资通讯。他的联系方式是 mark@hulbertratings.com</p>
<p>更多：大学橄榄球 9 年？这位蒙大拿州的外线卫是最新一位坚持留在一级的学生运动员。</p>
<p>此外：NFL 的海豚队支付创纪录的 9920 万美元以将一名球员从他们的球队中移除</p>
<p>-马克·霍尔伯特</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>03-18-26 0810ET</p>

费城交易所 半导体 ETF - iShares

纳斯达克 OMX 交易所

纳斯达克 100 指数 ETF - Invesco

<p>根据研究，股市在三月疯狂期间的表现往往较差。那些支持输掉比赛的球队的投资者更可能出售股票，从而导致低于平均水平的回报。赢得比赛的球队的球迷并不能抵消这种影响，因为失利带来的情绪冲击更为显著。历史数据显示，自 1982 年以来，纳斯达克等指数在三月疯狂期间平均出现亏损。今年由于投注增加，负面情绪可能会更强烈。建议投资者在比赛于 4 月 6 日结束之前暂缓交易</p>

<p>By Mark Hulbert</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：马克·霍尔伯特</p>
</div><p>Fans of losing teams are more likely to dump shares than winners are to buy</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>输球球队的球迷更可能抛售股票，而赢家则不太可能买入</p>
</div><p>On average, the stock market has performed significantly worse during March Madness than during all days in March and April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均而言，股市在疯狂三月期间的表现明显逊色于三月和四月的所有交易日。</p>
</div><p>March Madness is here - so you might want to lighten up on stocks until the annual NCAA Division I men's college basketball tournament ends on April 6.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疯狂三月来了——所以你可能想在每年 NCAA 一级男子大学篮球锦标赛于 4 月 6 日结束之前减持股票。</p>
</div><p>That's because of a growing body of research documenting below-average stock-market performance during major sports tournaments (including soccer, cricket, rugby and basketball, among others). This body of work traces to a now-famous 2007 study in the Journal of Finance entitled &#34;Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这与越来越多的研究结果有关，这些研究记录了在重大体育赛事（包括足球、板球、橄榄球和篮球等）期间股市表现低于平均水平。这些研究可以追溯到一项著名的 2007 年《金融学杂志》上的研究，标题为《体育情绪与股票回报》。</p>
</div><p>The source of the stock market's below-average returns during widely followed sports tournaments is the behavior of investors whose favorite team has lost and thereby eliminated from competition. Their mood tends to darken considerably, leading them to be more likely to sell their stock holdings and less likely to buy. The net result is that the stock market experiences below-average returns during the tournaments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在广受关注的体育赛事期间，股市低于平均回报的原因在于那些支持输球球队的投资者的行为。这些投资者的情绪往往会显著低落，导致他们更可能抛售股票持有，而不太可能买入。最终结果是，股市在这些赛事期间经历低于平均水平的回报。</p>
</div><p>You might wonder why this negative effect isn't counterbalanced by the more upbeat mood of investors whose favorite team has won. For every loss there is a corresponding win, after all. But the researchers found little evidence of this counterbalancing effect, perhaps because a win only means that the team survives to play another round in the tournament - in contrast to a loss meaning that the team is out altogether. For this reason, according to the researchers, investors who are fans of a losing team will be more demoralized than the winning team's fans will be exuberant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可能会想知道，为什么这种负面影响不会被支持赢球球队的投资者的积极情绪所抵消。毕竟，每一次失利都有相应的胜利。然而，研究人员发现几乎没有证据表明这种抵消效应，可能是因为胜利仅意味着球队能够继续参加下一轮比赛，而失利则意味着球队完全出局。因此，根据研究人员的说法，支持输球球队的投资者会比支持赢球球队的投资者更感沮丧。</p>
</div><p>Look at the chart above. It plots different market indices' average daily returns during all March Madness tournaments since 1982, and compares them with those indices' average returns for all days during March and April. As you can see, the market SPX DJIA on average has performed significantly worse during March Madness than during all days in March and April. (I chose to base the chart on data back to 1982 because, according to Time magazine, that is when ESPN announcer Brent Musburger made the term &#34;March Madness&#34; famous when referring to the NCAA tournament.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看看上面的图表。它绘制了自 1982 年以来所有疯狂三月赛事中不同市场指数的平均每日回报，并将其与三月和四月所有交易日的平均回报进行了比较。正如你所看到的，市场 SPX DJIA 在疯狂三月期间的表现明显逊色于三月和四月的所有交易日。（我选择将图表基于自 1982 年以来的数据，因为据《时代》杂志报道，那是 ESPN 解说员布伦特·穆斯伯格首次使用 “疯狂三月” 这个术语来指代 NCAA 锦标赛的时候。）</p>
</div><p>Particularly telling is the performance of the Nasdaq composite COMP, which reflects the segment of the market that is especially prone to changes in investor mood. That index has actually produced an average loss during all March Madness tournaments since 1982, in contrast to an average gain during all of March and April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尤其值得注意的是纳斯达克综合指数 COMP 的表现，它反映了市场中尤其容易受到投资者情绪变化影响的部分。自 1982 年以来，该指数在所有疯狂三月赛事期间实际上产生了平均亏损，而在三月和四月的所有交易日则平均获得收益。</p>
</div><p>If anything, furthermore, sports sentiment should be having a bigger impact today than in recent years. That's because losing teams' fans will be upset not just because their teams have lost, but because of the monetary losses associated with losing their sports bets. The consulting firm H2 Gambling Capital projects that U.S. sportsbooks will take in about $4 billion in bets during this year's tournament. To put that in context, that compares to an estimated $1.4 billion in bets during February's Super Bowl.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，体育情绪今天应该比近年来对市场的影响更大。这是因为输球球队的球迷不仅会因为球队输掉比赛而感到沮丧，还会因为与输掉体育博彩相关的金钱损失而感到不满。咨询公司 H2 Gambling Capital 预计，美国体育博彩在今年的锦标赛期间将接受约 40 亿美元的投注。作为对比，预计二月份超级碗的投注额为 14 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The bottom line: If your favorite team is in the March Madness tournament, and especially if you have bet money on the outcome, sit on your hands until the tournament is over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>底线是：如果你支持的球队参加了疯狂三月锦标赛，尤其是如果你在结果上下注了钱，那么在锦标赛结束之前请保持观望。</p>
</div><p>Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马克·霍尔伯特是 MarketWatch 的定期撰稿人。他的霍尔伯特评级跟踪支付固定费用进行审计的投资通讯。他的联系方式是 mark@hulbertratings.com</p>
</div><p>More: 9 years in college football? This Montana linebacker is the latest Division I student-athlete who's sticking around.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更多：大学橄榄球 9 年？这位蒙大拿州的外线卫是最新一位坚持留在一级的学生运动员。</p>
</div><p>Plus: The NFL's Dolphins are paying a record $99.2 million to get a player off their team</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外：NFL 的海豚队支付创纪录的 9920 万美元以将一名球员从他们的球队中移除</p>
</div><p>-Mark Hulbert</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-马克·霍尔伯特</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>03-18-26 0810ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>03-18-26 0810ET</p>
</div>

How March Madness basketball could bust your portfolio bracket

- 在 "March Madness" 期间，股市表现显著低于常规水平。  
- 球迷情绪对市场影响显著，尤其是输球的球迷更倾向于抛售股票。  
- 预计今年赛事将产生约 40 亿美元的博彩收入，进一步影响市场情绪。

三月疯狂篮球赛事如何可能影响你的投资组合表现