<h2>关键要点</h2>
<ul>
<li>比特币是一种稀缺的价值储存工具。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>在战争时期，类似资产往往表现良好。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>一位加密货币内部人士正在有力地反驳这一观点。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>我们更看好的 10 只股票 ›</li>
</ul>
<p>当重大冲突或战争爆发时，许多投资者会选择投资于黄金或土地等硬资产——任何无法被急需支付账单的政府凭空创造的资产。</p>
<p>因此，你可能会认为美国与伊朗的冲突会让加密货币内部人士争相购买像 <strong>比特币</strong>（CRYPTO: BTC）这样的稀缺资产。但著名的加密投资者、BitMEX 交易所的联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 却表示，他在 3 月 10 日的_Coin Stories_播客中称，他现在不会投入一美元购买该币。</p>
<p><em><strong>人工智能会创造出世界上第一个万亿富翁吗？</strong> 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知的公司报告，该公司被称为 “不可或缺的垄断”，提供 Nvidia 和 Intel 都需要的关键技术。<strong>继续 »</strong></em></p>
<p>他还声称，战争有利于比特币的广泛观点是不准确的。那么，是什么阻止他在此时购买该币呢，如果不是对伊朗的攻击？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MDcyMC9iaXRjb2luLW1lZXRzLXdhbGwtc3RyZWV0LmpwZwI2dz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MDcyMC9iaXRjb2luLW1lZXRzLXdhbGwtc3RyZWV0LmpwZwI2dz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>货币印刷往往推动比特币</h2>
<p>在详细阐述他的比特币立场时，Hayes 认为，战争并不是推动比特币价格上涨的因素——而是战争有时产生的货币印刷使得该币上涨。Hayes 表示，当美联储开始印钞时，他会再次开始购买比特币，并且他还提到，冲突持续的时间越长，比特币和股票大幅下跌的风险就越大。</p>
<p>让我们更详细地分析一下他所说的内容。</p>
<p>简而言之，比特币与赋予其价值的因素之间的关系在很大程度上取决于流动性。当中央银行扩大货币供应量（广义上衡量流通现金、储蓄和近现金工具的指标）时，像加密货币这样的风险资产往往会上涨。比特币在这一模式下表现出异常的忠诚，其牛市与全球流动性扩张的时期始终重叠，通常存在几个月的滞后期。</p>
<p>但 Hayes 的模型存在一个问题。美联储目前并没有放松（增加流通货币的数量），也没有暗示会这样做。</p>
<p>消费者价格在 2 月份同比上涨了 2.4%，而由于伊朗邻近霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输中断可能即将引发的能源冲击，可能会使这一数字令人恐惧地上升。如果能源成本急剧上升并保持高位，随着冲突的持续，这种可能性越来越大，通货膨胀可能在年底达到 3%，远高于美联储的 2% 目标。因此，目前看来，冲突使得降息的可能性降低，而不是增加，这与 Hayes 的理论所需的情况正好相反。</p>
<p>这意味着，等待印钞信号再购买的投资者可能会面临漫长的等待，他们可能因此错失一些收益。</p>
<h2>不要试图预测未来</h2>
<p>你不需要像 Arthur Hayes 那样采取相同的比特币投资策略。实际上，最好是采取长期的视角，因为无论美联储今年是否放宽政策，无论其行动的原因如何，比特币的供应动态将继续自动收紧。</p>
<p>由于比特币挖矿，每天只有大约 450 个新币进入市场，而在 2028 年初的下次减半事件中，这一数字将减半。从现在到那时，流动性的变化可能会在价格上升或下降，但无论发生什么，未来进入市场的新供应量将永远不会像现在这样多，因此未来的买家将争夺更少的币，这在长期内会使价格偏向上涨。</p>
<p>Hayes 可能是对的，认为比特币宏观驱动的上涨最佳条件是在美联储开始降息之后。但大多数投资者没有等待完美宏观信号的奢侈。更实际的方法是通过定期购买，无论价格是上涨还是下跌，逐步建立头寸，然后持有多年，以捕捉稀缺性带来的长期顺风。那就是我将继续做的事情。</p>
<p>战争并不会使比特币成为买入的理由，但其稀缺性确实如此。而稀缺性并不需要美联储的许可来获得收益，尽管偶尔可能会有所帮助。</p>
<h2>你现在应该购买比特币股票吗？</h2>
<p>在你购买比特币股票之前，请考虑以下几点：</p>
<p>_Motley Fool Stock Advisor_分析团队刚刚确定了他们认为现在投资者应该购买的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong>……而比特币并不在其中。这 10 只入选的股票在未来几年可能会产生巨大的回报。</p>
<p>考虑一下 <strong>Netflix</strong> 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1000 美元，<strong>你现在将拥有 508,877 美元</strong>！* 或者 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1000 美元，<strong>你现在将拥有 1,115,328 美元</strong>！*</p>
<p>现在，值得注意的是，<em>Stock Advisor_的总平均回报率为 936%——相比之下，标准普尔 500 指数的回报率为 189%。** 不要错过最新的前 10 名单，加入由个人投资者为个人投资者建立的投资社区，获取_Stock Advisor</em>。**</p>
<p><strong>查看这 10 只股票 »</strong></p>
<p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回报截至 2026 年 3 月 19 日。</em></p>
<p><em>Alex Carchidi 持有比特币的头寸。Motley Fool 持有并推荐比特币。Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
<p>本文中表达的观点和意见仅代表作者个人观点，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点。</p>

GLXY

<p>比特币交易所 BitMEX 的联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 反对普遍认为战争会推动比特币价格上涨的观点。他表示，推动比特币价值的并不是冲突，而是货币印刷。目前，美联储并未放宽货币政策，这可能会阻碍比特币的价格增长。Hayes 建议在美联储增加流动性之前再考虑投资比特币。然而，他也承认比特币的稀缺性是长期价值的驱动因素，建议无论短期价格波动如何，都应采取逐步投资的方式</p>

<h2>Key Points</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关键要点</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>Bitcoin is a scarce store of value.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>比特币是一种稀缺的价值储存工具。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Similar assets tend to do well during times of war.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>在战争时期，类似资产往往表现良好。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>One crypto insider is convincingly disputing that view.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>一位加密货币内部人士正在有力地反驳这一观点。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin ›</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>我们更看好的 10 只股票 ›</li>
</ul>
</div><p>When a major conflict or war breaks out, many investors respond by running toward hard assets like gold or land -- anything that can't be conjured from thin air by a government with urgent bills to pay.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当重大冲突或战争爆发时，许多投资者会选择投资于黄金或土地等硬资产——任何无法被急需支付账单的政府凭空创造的资产。</p>
</div><p>Thus, you might expect that the U.S. conflict with Iran would have crypto insiders scrambling to load up on scarce assets like <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(CRYPTO: BTC). But not Arthur Hayes, a famous crypto investor and the co-founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange, who said on the <em>Coin Stories</em> podcast on March 10 that he would not put even a single dollar into the coin right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，你可能会认为美国与伊朗的冲突会让加密货币内部人士争相购买像 <strong>比特币</strong>（CRYPTO: BTC）这样的稀缺资产。但著名的加密投资者、BitMEX 交易所的联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 却表示，他在 3 月 10 日的_Coin Stories_播客中称，他现在不会投入一美元购买该币。</p>
</div><p><em><strong>Will AI create the world's first trillionaire?</strong> Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an &#34;Indispensable Monopoly&#34; providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. <strong>Continue »</strong></em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>人工智能会创造出世界上第一个万亿富翁吗？</strong> 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知的公司报告，该公司被称为 “不可或缺的垄断”，提供 Nvidia 和 Intel 都需要的关键技术。<strong>继续 »</strong></em></p>
</div><p>He also claimed that the widespread idea that war is favorable for Bitcoin is inaccurate. So what exactly is it that's stopping him from buying the coin here, if not the attack on Iran?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他还声称，战争有利于比特币的广泛观点是不准确的。那么，是什么阻止他在此时购买该币呢，如果不是对伊朗的攻击？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MDcyMC9iaXRjb2luLW1lZXRzLXdhbGwtc3RyZWV0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F860720%2Fbitcoin-meets-wall-street.jpg&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Money printing tends to move Bitcoin</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>货币印刷往往推动比特币</h2>
</div><p>Elaborating on his Bitcoin stance, Hayes argued that war is not something that lifts Bitcoin's price -- it's the money printing that wars sometimes generate that sends the coin higher. Hayes says that he will start buying Bitcoin again when the Federal Reserve starts running the presses, and also that the longer the conflict drags on, the greater the risk of there being a major plunge for Bitcoin as well as for stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在详细阐述他的比特币立场时，Hayes 认为，战争并不是推动比特币价格上涨的因素——而是战争有时产生的货币印刷使得该币上涨。Hayes 表示，当美联储开始印钞时，他会再次开始购买比特币，并且他还提到，冲突持续的时间越长，比特币和股票大幅下跌的风险就越大。</p>
</div><p>Let's unpack what he's saying in a bit more detail.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们更详细地分析一下他所说的内容。</p>
</div><p>In short, the relationship between Bitcoin and what gives a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin its value comes down, in large part, to liquidity. When central banks expand the money supply (a broad measure of circulating cash, savings, and near-cash instruments), risk assets like crypto tend to climb. Bitcoin has tracked this pattern with unusual fidelity, and its bull markets have consistently overlapped with periods of expanding global liquidity, often with a lag period of a few months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简而言之，比特币与赋予其价值的因素之间的关系在很大程度上取决于流动性。当中央银行扩大货币供应量（广义上衡量流通现金、储蓄和近现金工具的指标）时，像加密货币这样的风险资产往往会上涨。比特币在这一模式下表现出异常的忠诚，其牛市与全球流动性扩张的时期始终重叠，通常存在几个月的滞后期。</p>
</div><p>But there's a problem with Hayes' model. The Fed isn't easing (increasing the amount of circulating money in the supply) right now, and it isn't hinting at it either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Hayes 的模型存在一个问题。美联储目前并没有放松（增加流通货币的数量），也没有暗示会这样做。</p>
</div><p>Consumer prices rose 2.4% year over year in February, and the potentially imminent energy shock from the disruption to oil traffic in the Iran-adjacent Strait of Hormuz threatens to push that figure frighteningly higher. If energy costs rise sharply and stay elevated, which is more and more likely with every day the conflict continues, inflation could reach 3% by year's end, well above the Fed's 2% target. Therefore at present it appears to be the case that the confrontation is making interest rate cuts less likely, not more, which is the opposite of what Hayes' thesis requires to green light buying Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消费者价格在 2 月份同比上涨了 2.4%，而由于伊朗邻近霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输中断可能即将引发的能源冲击，可能会使这一数字令人恐惧地上升。如果能源成本急剧上升并保持高位，随着冲突的持续，这种可能性越来越大，通货膨胀可能在年底达到 3%，远高于美联储的 2% 目标。因此，目前看来，冲突使得降息的可能性降低，而不是增加，这与 Hayes 的理论所需的情况正好相反。</p>
</div><p>This means that investors waiting for a printing press signal before buying may be in for a long wait, and they might miss out on some gains as a result.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着，等待印钞信号再购买的投资者可能会面临漫长的等待，他们可能因此错失一些收益。</p>
</div><h2>Don't try to predict the future</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不要试图预测未来</h2>
</div><p>You don't need to tie yourself to taking the same approach to investing in Bitcoin as Arthur Hayes. It's actually probably best to take a longer-term perspective, because whether the Fed loosens policy this year, and regardless of the reasons for its course of action, Bitcoin's supply dynamics will continue to tighten on autopilot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你不需要像 Arthur Hayes 那样采取相同的比特币投资策略。实际上，最好是采取长期的视角，因为无论美联储今年是否放宽政策，无论其行动的原因如何，比特币的供应动态将继续自动收紧。</p>
</div><p>Only about 450 new coins enter the market each day as a result of Bitcoin mining, and that figure will get cut in half at the next halving event in early 2028. Changes in liquidity might boost or depress the coin's prices between now and then, as well as afterward. No matter what happens, there will never again be as much new supply entering the market as there is now, so future buyers will be competing over a smaller quantity of coins, which biases the price to the upside over the very long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于比特币挖矿，每天只有大约 450 个新币进入市场，而在 2028 年初的下次减半事件中，这一数字将减半。从现在到那时，流动性的变化可能会在价格上升或下降，但无论发生什么，未来进入市场的新供应量将永远不会像现在这样多，因此未来的买家将争夺更少的币，这在长期内会使价格偏向上涨。</p>
</div><p>Hayes may well be right that the optimal conditions for a Bitcoin macro-driven rally arrives after the Fed begins cutting rates. But most investors don't have the luxury of waiting for a perfect macro signal. The more practical approach is to build a position gradually by buying at regular intervals whether the price is up or down, and then hold it for years so as to capture the long-term tailwinds that scarcity provides. And that's what I will continue doing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hayes 可能是对的，认为比特币宏观驱动的上涨最佳条件是在美联储开始降息之后。但大多数投资者没有等待完美宏观信号的奢侈。更实际的方法是通过定期购买，无论价格是上涨还是下跌，逐步建立头寸，然后持有多年，以捕捉稀缺性带来的长期顺风。那就是我将继续做的事情。</p>
</div><p>The war doesn't make Bitcoin a buy, but its scarcity does. And scarcity doesn't need permission from the Federal Reserve to pay off, though it sure might help once in a while.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>战争并不会使比特币成为买入的理由，但其稀缺性确实如此。而稀缺性并不需要美联储的许可来获得收益，尽管偶尔可能会有所帮助。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy stock in Bitcoin right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该购买比特币股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你购买比特币股票之前，请考虑以下几点：</p>
</div><p>The <em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> analyst team just identified what they believe are the <strong>10 best stocks</strong> for investors to buy now… and Bitcoin wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>_Motley Fool Stock Advisor_分析团队刚刚确定了他们认为现在投资者应该购买的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong>……而比特币并不在其中。这 10 只入选的股票在未来几年可能会产生巨大的回报。</p>
</div><p>Consider when <strong>Netflix</strong> made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, <strong>you’d have $508,877</strong>!* Or when <strong>Nvidia</strong> made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, <strong>you’d have $1,115,328</strong>!*</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑一下 <strong>Netflix</strong> 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1000 美元，<strong>你现在将拥有 508,877 美元</strong>！* 或者 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1000 美元，<strong>你现在将拥有 1,115,328 美元</strong>！*</p>
</div><p>Now, it’s worth noting <em>Stock Advisor’s</em> total average return is 936% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 189% for the S&amp;P 500. <strong>Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with <em>Stock Advisor</em>, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，值得注意的是，<em>Stock Advisor_的总平均回报率为 936%——相比之下，标准普尔 500 指数的回报率为 189%。** 不要错过最新的前 10 名单，加入由个人投资者为个人投资者建立的投资社区，获取_Stock Advisor</em>。**</p>
</div><p><strong>See the 10 stocks »</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看这 10 只股票 »</strong></p>
</div><p><em>*Stock Advisor returns as of March 19, 2026.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回报截至 2026 年 3 月 19 日。</em></p>
</div><p><em>Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Alex Carchidi 持有比特币的头寸。Motley Fool 持有并推荐比特币。Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
</div><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文中表达的观点和意见仅代表作者个人观点，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点。</p>
</div>

This Crypto Insider Is Waiting to Buy Bitcoin – and It Has Nothing to Do With War

- Arthur Hayes 认为战争并不提升比特币价格，关键在于货币印刷。  
- 当前美联储并未放宽货币政策，通胀上升使利率下降可能性降低。  
- 投资者应持续定期增持比特币，以抓住未来稀缺带来的机会。

nasdaq

Hut 8 Mining

Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF

Galaxy Digital

Riot Platforms

Marathon Digital

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC - ETF

Coinbase

2 倍做多 MARA ETF - GraniteShares

Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF

WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

2 倍做多加密货币行业 ETF - Direxion

VanEck Bitcoin ETF

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF

Fidelity Ethereum Fund

区块链 ETF - Amplify

CoinShares Bitcoin ETF

GraniteShares 2x Long MSTR Daily ETF

2 倍做多 MSTR ETF - T-Rex

21Shares Ethereum ETF

IShares Ethereum Trust ETF

Leverage Shares 2x Cpd Acclrtd MSTRMnETF

Bitwise MARA Option Income Strategy ETF

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

Franklin Ethereum ETF

纳斯达克 NexGen 经济 ETF - Reality Shares

VanEck Ethereum ETF

Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF

2 倍做多 COIN ETF - GraniteShares

Proshares Ether Strategy ETF

Franklin Bitcoin ETF

ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF

Grayscale Bitcoin Adopters ETF

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - ETF

2 倍做多 Coinbase ETF - Leverage Shares

Bitwise Ethereum ETF

Valkyrie Bitcoin and Ether Strategy ETF

这位加密货币业内人士正在等待购买比特币——这与战争无关