<p>自阿拉伯石油禁运以来，未曾见过的运动正在重塑商品市场——而伊朗战争和霍尔木兹海峡封锁持续的时间越长，造成的损害就越深。</p>
<p>黄金价格正面临自 1973 年 12 月以来对布伦特原油的最糟糕月度表现——这一冲击波正在以历史性的力量撕裂矿业部门。</p>
<h2>黄金 - 石油比率暴跌 43%——自 1973 年以来最糟糕的月度跌幅</h2>
<p>黄金，由 <strong>SPDR 黄金 ETF</strong> 追踪 (NYSE: GLD)，截至周四早晨下跌了 13%，每盎司跌至 4580 美元——这是自 2008 年 10 月雷曼兄弟刚刚倒闭、全球市场自由落体以来的最糟糕绝对月度跌幅。</p>
<p>但黄金的绝对下降几乎是对与油价相比所发生的相对变化的分散注意力。</p>
<p>黄金与布伦特原油的比率——一盎司黄金可以购买的原油桶数——在本月内暴跌了 43%，大约降至 40。</p>
<p>这是黄金自 1973 年 12 月以来对石油的最糟糕月度表现，当时阿拉伯国家切断了对西方的原油出口，重塑了整个全球商品秩序。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/19120243/image-434-1024x568.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/19120243/image-434-1024x568.png"/></p>
<h2>为什么黄金在伊朗战争期间下跌</h2>
<p>传统市场智慧认为，在地缘政治压力时期，黄金会上涨。安全避风港需求，论点是，当不确定性激增时，推动黄金价格上涨。</p>
<p>然而，伊朗战争颠覆了这一剧本。</p>
<p>黄金并不是在任何冲突中都会上涨的简单避风港资产。黄金是一种对利率敏感的资产，而现在，利率正是问题所在。</p>
<p>由于霍尔木兹海峡的干扰和更广泛的能源冲击，油价上涨重新点燃了市场几个月以来认为已经消退的通胀担忧。</p>
<p>在冲突之前，交易员们预计 2026 年美联储将降息两次。</p>
<p>这一预期现在已经消失。</p>
<p>取而代之的是，一个更令人担忧的情景正在获得关注：如果能源冲击持续，直接加息的风险重新进入视野。</p>
<p>根据 Polymarket 的数据显示，今年美联储加息的概率为 17%——这比伊朗战争开始前的概率翻了一番。</p>
<p>这与 2025 年历史性的黄金反弹形成鲜明对比。当时，通胀下降和激进的降息预期推动黄金达到历史高位。</p>
<p>现在，同样的机制正在反向运作。</p>
<h2>黄金矿业的历史性解构</h2>
<p>由 <strong>VanEck 黄金矿业 ETF</strong> 追踪 (NYSE: GDX)，在 19 天内损失了 29% 的价值，从每月高点 117 美元跌至周四的 82 美元。</p>
<p>黄金矿业部门现在正朝着自 2008 年 10 月雷曼兄弟破产以来最糟糕的月度崩溃迈进。</p>
<p>几周前，这似乎是不可想象的，因为矿业曾是华尔街最热门的行业。</p>
<p>GDX ETF 在 2025 年 2 月到 2026 年 2 月的收盘之间飙升了近 200%，受到近五十年来最强劲的黄金反弹的推动。</p>
<p>黄金本身在 2025 年回报了 64.6%——这是自 1979 年以来的最佳年度表现。到 2026 年 1 月底，现货黄金达到了每盎司 5589 美元的历史最高点。</p>
<p>这一反弹似乎势不可挡。</p>
<p>然后伊朗战争开始，彻底打破了整个看涨金属的叙事。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/19121449/image-436-1024x568.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/19121449/image-436-1024x568.png"/></p>
<h2>矿业利润的双重挤压</h2>
<p>黄金矿业公司通过其销售黄金的价格与从地下开采黄金的成本之间的差额来赚取利润。</p>
<p>当黄金价格下跌而能源成本同时飙升时，这一利润空间就会受到双重打击。</p>
<p>自伊朗战争开始以来，批发柴油价格——重型矿业设备的主要燃料——上涨了 61%。</p>
<p>能源通常占主要黄金矿业运营总现金成本的 15%–20%。柴油价格上涨 61% 并不会线性压缩利润空间——在高成本矿山中，它可能完全消除利润。</p>
<p>黄金与石油的比率——一个广泛使用的矿业部门盈利能力的代理指标——以鲜明的方式展示了损害。</p>
<p>商品市场上最后一次出现如此规模的失调是在阿拉伯石油禁运后的直接后果中——当时，突如其来的政治性能源冲击引发了原油价格的同时飙升，并重新定价了通胀预期，这对无收益资产和能源密集型行业造成了毁灭性影响。</p>
<p>历史似乎有一种不舒服的押韵习惯。</p>
<p><em>照片：Shutterstock</em></p>

GDXY

紫金矿业

黄金 ETF - SPDR

<p>黄金价格本月迄今已下跌 13%，至每盎司 4,580 美元，创下自 1973 年 12 月以来与布伦特原油的最差月度表现，黄金与布伦特原油的比率暴跌 43%。由于伊朗持续的战争，矿业股票在 19 天内下跌了 29%，成为自 2008 年 10 月以来该行业最糟糕的一个月。油价上涨和通胀担忧正在影响黄金作为避险资产的地位，同时矿业利润因能源成本上升而受到挤压。VanEck 黄金矿业 ETF 也出现了显著下跌，反映出商品市场的动荡</p>

<p>A movement unseen since the Arab oil embargo is reshaping commodity markets — and the longer the Iran war and the Hormuz blockade hold, the deeper the damage runs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自阿拉伯石油禁运以来，未曾见过的运动正在重塑商品市场——而伊朗战争和霍尔木兹海峡封锁持续的时间越长，造成的损害就越深。</p>
</div><p>Gold prices are facing their worst monthly performance against Brent crude since December 1973 — and the shockwave is tearing through the mining sector with historic force.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金价格正面临自 1973 年 12 月以来对布伦特原油的最糟糕月度表现——这一冲击波正在以历史性的力量撕裂矿业部门。</p>
</div><h2>Gold-Oil Ratio Crashes 43% — Worst Monthly Drop Since 1973</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黄金 - 石油比率暴跌 43%——自 1973 年以来最糟糕的月度跌幅</h2>
</div><p>Gold, tracked by the <strong>SPDR Gold Shares</strong> (NYSE: GLD), is down 13% month-to-date, falling to $4,580 per ounce as of Thursday morning — its worst absolute monthly drop since October 2008, when Lehman Brothers had just collapsed and global markets were in freefall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金，由 <strong>SPDR 黄金 ETF</strong> 追踪 (NYSE: GLD)，截至周四早晨下跌了 13%，每盎司跌至 4580 美元——这是自 2008 年 10 月雷曼兄弟刚刚倒闭、全球市场自由落体以来的最糟糕绝对月度跌幅。</p>
</div><p>But the absolute decline in gold is almost a distraction from what is happening in relative terms compared to oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但黄金的绝对下降几乎是对与油价相比所发生的相对变化的分散注意力。</p>
</div><p>The gold-to-Brent ratio — the number of barrels of crude an ounce of gold can buy — has crashed 43% month-to-date to roughly 40.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金与布伦特原油的比率——一盎司黄金可以购买的原油桶数——在本月内暴跌了 43%，大约降至 40。</p>
</div><p>That is gold’s worst monthly performance against oil since December 1973, when Arab states cut off crude exports to the West and rewired the entire global commodity order.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是黄金自 1973 年 12 月以来对石油的最糟糕月度表现，当时阿拉伯国家切断了对西方的原油出口，重塑了整个全球商品秩序。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/19120243/image-434-1024x568.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/19120243/image-434-1024x568.png"/></p>
<h2>Why Gold Is Falling During The War In Iran</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么黄金在伊朗战争期间下跌</h2>
</div><p>The conventional market wisdom holds that gold rises in times of geopolitical stress. Safe-haven demand, the argument goes, pushes bullion higher when uncertainty spikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>传统市场智慧认为，在地缘政治压力时期，黄金会上涨。安全避风港需求，论点是，当不确定性激增时，推动黄金价格上涨。</p>
</div><p>The Iran war has turned that playbook on its head.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，伊朗战争颠覆了这一剧本。</p>
</div><p>Gold is not a simple safe-haven asset that rises in any conflict. Gold is an interest-rate-sensitive asset, and right now, interest rates are the problem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金并不是在任何冲突中都会上涨的简单避风港资产。黄金是一种对利率敏感的资产，而现在，利率正是问题所在。</p>
</div><p>Rising oil prices, driven by the Strait of Hormuz disruption and the broader energy shock, are reigniting inflationary fears that markets had spent months assuming were behind them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于霍尔木兹海峡的干扰和更广泛的能源冲击，油价上涨重新点燃了市场几个月以来认为已经消退的通胀担忧。</p>
</div><p>Before the conflict, traders had priced in two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在冲突之前，交易员们预计 2026 年美联储将降息两次。</p>
</div><p>That expectation has now evaporated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一预期现在已经消失。</p>
</div><p>In its place, a more alarming scenario is gaining traction: if the energy shock persists, the risk of outright rate hikes re-enters the picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>取而代之的是，一个更令人担忧的情景正在获得关注：如果能源冲击持续，直接加息的风险重新进入视野。</p>
</div><p>According to Polymarket, there is a 17% chance of a Fed rate hike this year – that’s more than double the odds seen prior to the start of the war in Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Polymarket 的数据显示，今年美联储加息的概率为 17%——这比伊朗战争开始前的概率翻了一番。</p>
</div><p>This is the mirror image of the 2025 historic gold rally. Then, falling inflation and aggressive rate-cut expectations propelled gold to record territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这与 2025 年历史性的黄金反弹形成鲜明对比。当时，通胀下降和激进的降息预期推动黄金达到历史高位。</p>
</div><p>Now, the same mechanism is working in reverse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，同样的机制正在反向运作。</p>
</div><h2>A Historic Unwind For Gold Miners</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黄金矿业的历史性解构</h2>
</div><p>The VanEck Gold Miners ETF — as tracked by the <strong>VanEck Gold Miners ETF</strong> (NYSE: GDX) — has shed 29% of its value in 19 days, from a monthly high of $117 to $82 as of Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由 <strong>VanEck 黄金矿业 ETF</strong> 追踪 (NYSE: GDX)，在 19 天内损失了 29% 的价值，从每月高点 117 美元跌至周四的 82 美元。</p>
</div><p>The gold mining sector is now on track for the worst monthly collapse since the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in October 2008.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金矿业部门现在正朝着自 2008 年 10 月雷曼兄弟破产以来最糟糕的月度崩溃迈进。</p>
</div><p>It would have seemed unthinkable just weeks ago, as miners were Wall Street’s hottest sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几周前，这似乎是不可想象的，因为矿业曾是华尔街最热门的行业。</p>
</div><p>The GDX ETF had surged nearly 200% between February 2025 and the close of February 2026, carried by the most powerful gold rally in nearly five decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GDX ETF 在 2025 年 2 月到 2026 年 2 月的收盘之间飙升了近 200%，受到近五十年来最强劲的黄金反弹的推动。</p>
</div><p>Gold itself returned 64.6% in 2025 — its best annual performance since 1979. By late January 2026, spot gold had reached an all-time high of $5,589 per ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金本身在 2025 年回报了 64.6%——这是自 1979 年以来的最佳年度表现。到 2026 年 1 月底，现货黄金达到了每盎司 5589 美元的历史最高点。</p>
</div><p>The rally seemed unstoppable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一反弹似乎势不可挡。</p>
</div><p>Then the Iran war began and it crashed the entire bullish metal narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后伊朗战争开始，彻底打破了整个看涨金属的叙事。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/19121449/image-436-1024x568.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/19121449/image-436-1024x568.png"/></p>
<h2>The Double Squeeze On Mining Margins</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>矿业利润的双重挤压</h2>
</div><p>Gold mining companies earn profits from the difference between the gold price they sell it for and the cost of extracting it from the ground.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金矿业公司通过其销售黄金的价格与从地下开采黄金的成本之间的差额来赚取利润。</p>
</div><p>When gold prices fall and energy costs surge simultaneously, that margin is attacked from both directions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当黄金价格下跌而能源成本同时飙升时，这一利润空间就会受到双重打击。</p>
</div><p>Since the war in Iran began, wholesale diesel prices — the primary fuel for heavy mining equipment — have risen 61%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自伊朗战争开始以来，批发柴油价格——重型矿业设备的主要燃料——上涨了 61%。</p>
</div><p>Energy typically accounts for 15%–20% of total cash costs at major gold mining operations. A 61% surge in diesel does not compress margins linearly — it can eliminate them entirely at higher-cost mines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源通常占主要黄金矿业运营总现金成本的 15%–20%。柴油价格上涨 61% 并不会线性压缩利润空间——在高成本矿山中，它可能完全消除利润。</p>
</div><p>The gold-to-oil ratio — a widely used proxy for mining sector profitability — illustrates the damage in stark terms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金与石油的比率——一个广泛使用的矿业部门盈利能力的代理指标——以鲜明的方式展示了损害。</p>
</div><p>The last time the commodity market saw a dislocation of this magnitude was in the immediate aftermath of the Arab oil embargo — when a sudden, politically-imposed energy shock triggered a simultaneous surge in crude prices and a repricing of inflation expectations that proved devastating for non-yielding assets and energy-intensive industries alike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商品市场上最后一次出现如此规模的失调是在阿拉伯石油禁运后的直接后果中——当时，突如其来的政治性能源冲击引发了原油价格的同时飙升，并重新定价了通胀预期，这对无收益资产和能源密集型行业造成了毁灭性影响。</p>
</div><p>History, it seems, has an uncomfortable habit of rhyming.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史似乎有一种不舒服的押韵习惯。</p>
</div><p><em>Photo: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Gold Eyes Worst Month Against Oil Since 1973; Mining Stocks Slump Most Since 2008

benzinga_article

YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF

纽蒙特矿业

2 倍做多金矿指数 ETF - Direxion

Kinross Gold

黄金矿 ETF - Sprott

2 倍做空金矿指数 ETF - Direxion

金矿股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

初级黄金矿股 ETF

中金黄金

山东黄金

2 倍做空小型金矿指数 ETF - Direxion

Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF

阿尼科伊格尔矿业

Gold.com

金矿小盘股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

2 倍做多小型金矿指数 ETF - Direxion

全球黄金矿业股 MSCI ETF - iShares

黄金正经历自 1973 年以来对石油表现最差的一个月；矿业股票出现自 2008 年以来的最大跌幅