<p>作者：Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<p>2 年期国债收益率飙升至超过联邦基金利率目标，给投资者带来了更深层次的担忧交易模式</p>
<p>周四，2 年期收益率超过了联邦基金利率目标，而国债收益率曲线继续趋平。</p>
<p>周四美国债券市场出现的令人担忧的发展让一些投资者将其与 2008 年金融危机前的情况进行了比较。</p>
<p>当前的问题始于由于美国与以色列对伊朗的战争导致的油价上涨，这增加了滞涨的风险以及 2026 年美联储加息的前景。布伦特原油（BRN00），全球油价基准，周四一度突破每桶 119 美元，因波斯湾的油气基础设施遭到攻击。西德克萨斯中质原油期货（CLJ26）一度突破每桶 100 美元。</p>
<p>但即使油价飙升、股价下跌，通常在市场不安时被视为避风港的国债也没有持续反弹。相反，中东战争可能演变为全面能源危机的担忧使得政策敏感的 2 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD02Y 在周四超过了美联储的利率目标。债券收益率与价格呈反向关系，价格下跌时收益率上升。</p>
<p>债券市场的抛售导致国债收益率曲线出现了交易员所称的 “熊市趋平” 模式。这实际上早在 2 月初就已经开始。通常，当债券交易员为未来艰难的经济环境做好准备时，这种模式就会出现。</p>
<p>这三种发展——油价超过每桶 100 美元、2 年期收益率超过联邦基金利率以及债券市场的熊市陡峭化动态——让一些投资者感到紧张。</p>
<p>根据彭博社的数据，上一次这三种情况同时出现是在 2008 年春末。大约四到五个月后，雷曼兄弟倒闭，开启了 2008 年金融危机最严重的阶段。标准普尔 500 指数 SPX 在那一年下跌了 38.5%。广泛的抵押贷款违约也导致许多美国人失去家园。</p>
<p>当前的环境与那段令人不安的时期既有相似之处，也有不同之处。2008 年危机是由房地产泡沫破裂和次贷市场崩溃引发的，而目前投资者则关注与伊朗的持续战争，该战争始于 2 月 28 日，以及私人信贷行业压力加大的迹象。投资者已经受到股票和债券双重下跌的影响，这对任何持有 60-40 投资组合的退休储蓄者来说都是双重打击。</p>
<p>经济学家德里克·唐（Derek Tang）表示：“当前的环境让我想起 2007-2008 年，当时金融系统确实出现了裂痕。” 现在的坏消息是 “我们正面临能源价格冲击，而美联储因通胀风险而受到限制，这使得降息变得更加困难。” 这一切发生在美国衰退的可能性正在增加之际，这对风险资产来说 “并不健康”。“这就是为什么人们现在处于刀尖上的原因。”</p>
<p>周四，与利率路径预期相关的 2 年期收益率一度上涨 21.8 个基点，达到近 3.96% 的日内高点，因基础政府票据被积极抛售。最后的利率为 3.87%，高于美联储的利率目标区间 3.5% 至 3.75%。</p>
<p>2 年期收益率的上升速度快于基准 10 年期收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y，后者几乎没有变化，维持在 4.25%——导致国债收益率曲线出现熊市趋平模式。周四，2 年期和 10 年期国债收益率之间的差距从前一天的 51.5 个基点缩小至约 46.9 个基点，且较 2 月初的 74 个基点有所下降。</p>
<p>曲线的熊市趋平已经对金融机构造成了伤害，这些机构依赖于短期利率借款以长期利率放贷，以及因其现金类特性而持有 2 年期国债的退休年龄投资者。随着国债的抛售，其收益率上升，因此这些年长投资者本可以等待以更低的价格和更高的收益率购买。熊市趋平对更广泛投资者的意义在于它传递了关于利率可能上升路径和负面经济前景的信号。</p>
<p>2 年期利率正在定价一个情景，即 “美联储将在未来几年进入加息周期，” 纽约投资管理公司 FedWatch Advisors 的创始人本·埃蒙斯（Ben Emons）表示，他补充说他并不认同这一观点。</p>
<p>然而，2008 年金融危机的重演并不一定会发生，因为 “我们尚未进入滞涨，经济对油价的依赖程度也不如当时，” 埃蒙斯在电话采访中表示。“我们有私人信贷问题，但这与当时的次贷危机有所不同。银行系统比以前更具韧性。”</p>
<p>目前，联邦基金期货交易者预计今年不改变借贷成本的概率为 77.3%，预计到 12 月加息的可能性为 6.4%。周三，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）为加息的想法增添了一些可信度，称官员们已经讨论过他们的下一步是否应该提高利率，尽管这并不是目前中央银行的基本情景。</p>
<p>另见：道琼斯指数在鲍威尔明确表示没有急于拯救市场后下跌近 800 点</p>
<p>-Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<p>本文由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>03-19-26 1523ET</p>

道琼斯美国指数

和顺石油

<p>投资者注意到美国债券市场出现了令人担忧的模式，这让人想起了 2008 年金融危机。2 年期国债收益率已超过美联储的目标，而由于地缘政治紧张局势，油价飙升。这导致国债收益率曲线出现熊市平坦化，预示着未来可能面临经济困难。专家警告称，当前环境中能源价格上涨和衰退风险增加，可能会影响金融稳定，尽管 2008 年危机的重演并不是必然的</p>

<p>By Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Vivien Lou Chen</p>
</div><p>The 2-year Treasury yield spikes above the fed-funds rate target and produces a deeper, worrisome trading pattern for investors</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 年期国债收益率飙升至超过联邦基金利率目标，给投资者带来了更深层次的担忧交易模式</p>
</div><p>The 2-year yield rose above the fed-funds rate target, while the Treasury curve continued to flatten on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，2 年期收益率超过了联邦基金利率目标，而国债收益率曲线继续趋平。</p>
</div><p>Troubling developments that unfolded in the U.S. bond market on Thursday had some investors drawing comparisons with the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四美国债券市场出现的令人担忧的发展让一些投资者将其与 2008 年金融危机前的情况进行了比较。</p>
</div><p>The current problems start with rising oil prices as a result of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, which is raising the risk of stagflation and the prospect of a 2026 interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Brent crude (BRN00), the global oil benchmark, briefly blew past $119 a barrel on Thursday as attacks escalated on oil-and-gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. West Texas Intermediate crude-oil futures (CLJ26) briefly crossed $100 a barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前的问题始于由于美国与以色列对伊朗的战争导致的油价上涨，这增加了滞涨的风险以及 2026 年美联储加息的前景。布伦特原油（BRN00），全球油价基准，周四一度突破每桶 119 美元，因波斯湾的油气基础设施遭到攻击。西德克萨斯中质原油期货（CLJ26）一度突破每桶 100 美元。</p>
</div><p>But even as oil prices have spiked and stock prices have come down, Treasurys, often seen as a haven during times of market unease, haven't rallied on a continual basis. Instead, fears that the war in the Middle East could morph into a full-blown energy crisis pushed the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD02Y above the Federal Reserve's interest-rate target on Thursday. Bond yields move inversely with prices, rising as prices fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但即使油价飙升、股价下跌，通常在市场不安时被视为避风港的国债也没有持续反弹。相反，中东战争可能演变为全面能源危机的担忧使得政策敏感的 2 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD02Y 在周四超过了美联储的利率目标。债券收益率与价格呈反向关系，价格下跌时收益率上升。</p>
</div><p>The bond-market selloff has caused the Treasury yield curve to exhibit what traders describe as a &#34;bear-flattening&#34; pattern. This actually began back in early February. Typically, the pattern emerges when bond traders are bracing for a difficult economic environment ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>债券市场的抛售导致国债收益率曲线出现了交易员所称的 “熊市趋平” 模式。这实际上早在 2 月初就已经开始。通常，当债券交易员为未来艰难的经济环境做好准备时，这种模式就会出现。</p>
</div><p>The confluence of these three developments - oil above $100 a barrel, a 2-year yield above the fed funds rate and a bear-steepening dynamic in the bond market - is making some investors nervous.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这三种发展——油价超过每桶 100 美元、2 年期收益率超过联邦基金利率以及债券市场的熊市陡峭化动态——让一些投资者感到紧张。</p>
</div><p>The last time all three of those things unfolded simultaneously was in the late spring of 2008, according to Bloomberg data. About four or five months later, Lehman Brothers collapsed, ushering in the most acute phase of the 2008 financial crisis. The S&amp;P 500 SPX declined 38.5% that year. Widespread mortgage defaults also resulted in many Americans losing their homes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据彭博社的数据，上一次这三种情况同时出现是在 2008 年春末。大约四到五个月后，雷曼兄弟倒闭，开启了 2008 年金融危机最严重的阶段。标准普尔 500 指数 SPX 在那一年下跌了 38.5%。广泛的抵押贷款违约也导致许多美国人失去家园。</p>
</div><p>The current environment includes both similarities and differences to that troubling time. Whereas the 2008 crisis was triggered by the bursting of a housing bubble and the subsequent collapse of the subprime mortgage market, investors are currently focused on the continued war with Iran, which began on Feb. 28, as well as signs of increasing stress in the private-credit industry. Already, investors have been impacted by twin declines in stocks and bonds, which amount to a double-whammy for anybody holding their retirement savings in a 60-40 portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前的环境与那段令人不安的时期既有相似之处，也有不同之处。2008 年危机是由房地产泡沫破裂和次贷市场崩溃引发的，而目前投资者则关注与伊朗的持续战争，该战争始于 2 月 28 日，以及私人信贷行业压力加大的迹象。投资者已经受到股票和债券双重下跌的影响，这对任何持有 60-40 投资组合的退休储蓄者来说都是双重打击。</p>
</div><p>The current environment &#34;does remind me of 2007-2008, when you did have cracks in the financial system,&#34; said economist Derek Tang of Monetary Policy Analytics in Washington. The bad news now is &#34;we are going into an energy-price shock and the Fed's hands are tied because of inflation risks, which make it harder to cut rates.&#34; This is all happening as the chance of a U.S. recession is growing, which is &#34;not healthy&#34; for risk assets. &#34;That's why people are on a knife's edge right now.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家德里克·唐（Derek Tang）表示：“当前的环境让我想起 2007-2008 年，当时金融系统确实出现了裂痕。” 现在的坏消息是 “我们正面临能源价格冲击，而美联储因通胀风险而受到限制，这使得降息变得更加困难。” 这一切发生在美国衰退的可能性正在增加之际，这对风险资产来说 “并不健康”。“这就是为什么人们现在处于刀尖上的原因。”</p>
</div><p>On Thursday, the 2-year yield, which is tied to expectations for the path of interest rates, jumped by as much as 21.8 basis points to an intraday high of almost 3.96% as the underlying government note aggressively sold off. The rate was 3.87% at last check, above the Fed's interest-rate target of between 3.5% and 3.75%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，与利率路径预期相关的 2 年期收益率一度上涨 21.8 个基点，达到近 3.96% 的日内高点，因基础政府票据被积极抛售。最后的利率为 3.87%，高于美联储的利率目标区间 3.5% 至 3.75%。</p>
</div><p>The 2-year yield climbed at a faster pace than the benchmark 10-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y, which was little changed at 4.25% -producing a bear-flattening pattern of the Treasury curve. The difference between 2- and 10-year Treasury yields shrank to around 46.9 basis points on Thursday from 51.5 basis points a day ago, and is down from 74 basis points in early February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 年期收益率的上升速度快于基准 10 年期收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y，后者几乎没有变化，维持在 4.25%——导致国债收益率曲线出现熊市趋平模式。周四，2 年期和 10 年期国债收益率之间的差距从前一天的 51.5 个基点缩小至约 46.9 个基点，且较 2 月初的 74 个基点有所下降。</p>
</div><p>The curve's bear flattening is already hurting financial institutions, which rely on borrowing at short-term rates to lend at long-term rates, and retirement-age investors who held the 2-year Treasury note because of its cash-like qualities. As the note sells off, its yield rises so those older investors could have waited to buy at a lower price and higher yield. The bear-flattening's significance to investors more broadly rests in the signals it sends about the likely upward path for interest rates and a negative economic outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>曲线的熊市趋平已经对金融机构造成了伤害，这些机构依赖于短期利率借款以长期利率放贷，以及因其现金类特性而持有 2 年期国债的退休年龄投资者。随着国债的抛售，其收益率上升，因此这些年长投资者本可以等待以更低的价格和更高的收益率购买。熊市趋平对更广泛投资者的意义在于它传递了关于利率可能上升路径和负面经济前景的信号。</p>
</div><p>The 2-year rate is pricing in a scenario in which &#34;the Fed will have to move into a rate-hiking cycle for the next few years,&#34; said Ben Emons, founder of the New York-based investment management firm FedWatch Advisors, who added that he does not share this view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 年期利率正在定价一个情景，即 “美联储将在未来几年进入加息周期，” 纽约投资管理公司 FedWatch Advisors 的创始人本·埃蒙斯（Ben Emons）表示，他补充说他并不认同这一观点。</p>
</div><p>However, a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis is not necessarily in the cards because &#34;we're not in stagflation yet and the economy is not as reliant on oil prices as it was back then,&#34; Emons said in a phone interview. &#34;We have private-credit issues, but there's a difference between that and the subprime crisis at the time. The banking system is far more resilient than before.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，2008 年金融危机的重演并不一定会发生，因为 “我们尚未进入滞涨，经济对油价的依赖程度也不如当时，” 埃蒙斯在电话采访中表示。“我们有私人信贷问题，但这与当时的次贷危机有所不同。银行系统比以前更具韧性。”</p>
</div><p>Fed-funds futures traders currently see a 77.3% chance of no change in borrowing costs this year and a 6.4% likelihood of one rate hike by December. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell lent some credence to the idea of a hike by saying officials have deliberated on whether their next move should be to lift rates, although this is not currently the central bank's base-case scenario.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，联邦基金期货交易者预计今年不改变借贷成本的概率为 77.3%，预计到 12 月加息的可能性为 6.4%。周三，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）为加息的想法增添了一些可信度，称官员们已经讨论过他们的下一步是否应该提高利率，尽管这并不是目前中央银行的基本情景。</p>
</div><p>See also: Dow falls nearly 800 points after Powell makes one thing clear: There's no rush to rescue the market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见：道琼斯指数在鲍威尔明确表示没有急于拯救市场后下跌近 800 点</p>
</div><p>-Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Vivien Lou Chen</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>03-19-26 1523ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>03-19-26 1523ET</p>
</div>

投资者发现了一个自 2008 年危机前以来未曾见过的市场模式