<p>惠誉上周五的报告。情景分析突显了油价上行风险的规模，霍尔木兹海峡的长期干扰可能将布伦特原油推向 120 美元，并使市场保持波动。</p>
<p>摘要：</p>
<ul>
<li>惠誉概述了与霍尔木兹海峡关闭持续时间相关的油价情景</li>
<li>在六个月的干扰下，布伦特预计在 2026 年平均为 120 美元/桶</li>
<li>三个月关闭情景指向约 100 美元/桶的平均价格</li>
<li>基本情况仍为 70 美元/桶，假设仅为暂时性干扰</li>
<li>在长期关闭期间，价格可能飙升至 130–170 美元/桶</li>
<li>预计霍尔木兹海峡的运输量损失约为 1500 万桶/日</li>
<li>在长期干扰情景中预计需求减少</li>
<li>国际能源署的储备释放预计将缓解近期供应冲击</li>
</ul>
<p>惠誉评级已为 2026 年概述了一系列油价情景，突显了霍尔木兹海峡干扰的持续时间如何显著重塑全球能源前景。</p>
<p>在其最新分析中，该机构估计，如果霍尔木兹海峡在明年有效关闭六个月，布伦特原油的平均价格可能高达 120 美元/桶。即使是较短的三个月干扰，价格仍会大幅上涨，预计 2026 年布伦特的平均价格约为 100 美元/桶。</p>
<p>这两种情景与惠誉的基本情况有显著差异，后者假设干扰较为暂时，并预测平均价格为 70 美元/桶。该基线考虑了当前危机驱动的短期价格飙升，随后随着供应条件正常化，价格预计在年底前回落至 60 美元/桶。</p>
<p>然而，在更严重的干扰情景下，价格动态变得更加波动。惠誉预计，在关闭期间，油价将急剧飙升，在长期六个月的干扰中，价格可能在 130 至 170 美元/桶之间平均。即使在较短的干扰情景中，价格在高峰时也预计接近 130 美元，随后在年内回落至 90 美元/桶。</p>
<p>这些预测的核心驱动因素是供应干扰的规模。惠誉估计，霍尔木兹海峡的关闭将使市场上约 1500 万桶/日的运输量消失，即使假设仍有一些有限的流动继续。</p>
<p>在这些条件下，为了平衡市场，该机构预计将出现需求减少和供应侧响应的组合。在三个月的情景中，需求预计下降约 2.5%，而六个月的干扰可能导致约 5.5% 的更深度收缩。还假设国际能源署协调的战略储备额外释放将有助于抵消冲击。</p>
<p>尽管有这些缓解因素，惠誉强调，油市可能仍将高度波动。地缘政治风险溢价仍然较高，关于冲突持续时间和供应干扰程度的不确定性继续主导前景。</p>
<p>接下来会发生什么？</p>
<p>现在市场的关键变量是持续时间。</p>
<p>如果霍尔木兹海峡相对快速地重新开放，油市可能会遵循惠誉的基本情况，出现一次急剧但暂时的价格飙升，随后随着供应链正常化和战略储备的部署而回落。</p>
<p>然而，如果干扰持续超过几个月，动态将发生显著变化。长期关闭将迫使市场通过需求减少、更高的价格和更激进的政策响应进行更深层次的再平衡。在这种情况下，油价可能会持续交易于地缘政治溢价之上，130 美元以上的价格飙升将变得更加频繁。</p>
<p>市场还将密切关注缓解措施的有效性。战略储备释放、沙特阿拉伯的东西管道等替代出口路线，以及非海湾生产者的供应响应可能会在边际上帮助稳定价格，但不太可能完全抵消霍尔木兹海峡流量的损失。</p>
<p>另一个关键风险是升级。如果霍尔木兹以外的基础设施，如红海航线或关键出口终端，受到持续压力，供应冲击可能进一步加深，推动价格接近惠誉预测的上限。</p>
<p>最终，油价的走势将取决于当前的危机是否仍然是一个有限的干扰，还是演变为全球能源流动的更长期结构性变化。目前，市场可能对地缘政治发展和供应调整的迹象保持高度敏感。</p>

美国布伦特原油期货基金

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

英国石油

<p>惠誉评级预测，如果霍尔木兹海峡关闭六个月，布伦特原油价格可能在 2026 年达到每桶 120 美元，而如果关闭时间缩短至三个月，平均价格将约为 100 美元。基准情况假设为暂时性中断，价格为 70 美元。长期关闭可能导致价格飙升至 130-170 美元，原因是每日运输量损失 1500 万桶。预计需求减少和战略储备释放将缓解影响，但由于地缘政治风险，油市的波动性仍然可预见</p>

<p>Fitch’s note from Friday. Scenarios highlight the scale of upside risk to oil prices, with prolonged Hormuz disruption potentially driving Brent toward $120 and keeping markets volatile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠誉上周五的报告。情景分析突显了油价上行风险的规模，霍尔木兹海峡的长期干扰可能将布伦特原油推向 120 美元，并使市场保持波动。</p>
</div><p>Summary:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摘要：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Fitch outlines oil price scenarios tied to duration of Hormuz closure</li>
<li>Brent seen averaging $120/bbl in 2026 under six-month disruption</li>
<li>Three-month closure scenario points to ~$100/bbl average</li>
<li>Base case remains $70/bbl, assuming only temporary disruption</li>
<li>Prices could spike to $130–$170/bbl during extended closure</li>
<li>Estimated loss of ~15mb/d in transit volumes through Hormuz</li>
<li>Demand destruction expected in prolonged disruption scenarios</li>
<li>IEA reserve releases seen cushioning near-term supply shock</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>惠誉概述了与霍尔木兹海峡关闭持续时间相关的油价情景</li>
<li>在六个月的干扰下，布伦特预计在 2026 年平均为 120 美元/桶</li>
<li>三个月关闭情景指向约 100 美元/桶的平均价格</li>
<li>基本情况仍为 70 美元/桶，假设仅为暂时性干扰</li>
<li>在长期关闭期间，价格可能飙升至 130–170 美元/桶</li>
<li>预计霍尔木兹海峡的运输量损失约为 1500 万桶/日</li>
<li>在长期干扰情景中预计需求减少</li>
<li>国际能源署的储备释放预计将缓解近期供应冲击</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Fitch Ratings has outlined a range of oil price scenarios for 2026, highlighting how the duration of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could significantly reshape the global energy outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠誉评级已为 2026 年概述了一系列油价情景，突显了霍尔木兹海峡干扰的持续时间如何显著重塑全球能源前景。</p>
</div><p>In its latest analysis, the agency estimates that Brent crude could average as high as $120 per barrel next year if the Strait remains effectively closed for six months. A shorter, three-month disruption would still push prices materially higher, with Brent seen averaging around $100 per barrel for 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其最新分析中，该机构估计，如果霍尔木兹海峡在明年有效关闭六个月，布伦特原油的平均价格可能高达 120 美元/桶。即使是较短的三个月干扰，价格仍会大幅上涨，预计 2026 年布伦特的平均价格约为 100 美元/桶。</p>
</div><p>Both scenarios mark a sharp departure from Fitch’s base case, which assumes a more temporary disruption and forecasts an average price of $70 per barrel. That baseline incorporates a near-term spike driven by the current crisis, followed by a gradual easing as supply conditions normalise and prices fall back toward $60 per barrel by year-end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两种情景与惠誉的基本情况有显著差异，后者假设干扰较为暂时，并预测平均价格为 70 美元/桶。该基线考虑了当前危机驱动的短期价格飙升，随后随着供应条件正常化，价格预计在年底前回落至 60 美元/桶。</p>
</div><p>Under the more severe disruption scenarios, however, price dynamics become significantly more volatile. Fitch expects oil to spike sharply during the period of closure, with prices potentially averaging between $130 and $170 per barrel in a prolonged six-month disruption. Even in a shorter disruption scenario, prices are seen holding near $130 during the peak before easing back toward $90 per barrel later in the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在更严重的干扰情景下，价格动态变得更加波动。惠誉预计，在关闭期间，油价将急剧飙升，在长期六个月的干扰中，价格可能在 130 至 170 美元/桶之间平均。即使在较短的干扰情景中，价格在高峰时也预计接近 130 美元，随后在年内回落至 90 美元/桶。</p>
</div><p>The core driver behind these projections is the scale of supply disruption. Fitch estimates that a closure of the Strait would remove around 15 million barrels per day of transit volumes from the market, even assuming some limited flows continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些预测的核心驱动因素是供应干扰的规模。惠誉估计，霍尔木兹海峡的关闭将使市场上约 1500 万桶/日的运输量消失，即使假设仍有一些有限的流动继续。</p>
</div><p>To balance the market under these conditions, the agency expects a combination of demand destruction and supply-side responses. In the three-month scenario, demand is projected to fall by around 2.5%, while a six-month disruption could trigger a deeper contraction of roughly 5.5%. Additional releases from strategic reserves — including those coordinated by the International Energy Agency — are also assumed to help offset the shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这些条件下，为了平衡市场，该机构预计将出现需求减少和供应侧响应的组合。在三个月的情景中，需求预计下降约 2.5%，而六个月的干扰可能导致约 5.5% 的更深度收缩。还假设国际能源署协调的战略储备额外释放将有助于抵消冲击。</p>
</div><p>Despite these mitigating factors, Fitch emphasises that oil markets are likely to remain highly volatile. The geopolitical risk premium remains elevated, and uncertainty around the duration of the conflict and the extent of supply disruption continues to dominate the outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管有这些缓解因素，惠誉强调，油市可能仍将高度波动。地缘政治风险溢价仍然较高，关于冲突持续时间和供应干扰程度的不确定性继续主导前景。</p>
</div><p>What happens next?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下来会发生什么？</p>
</div><p>The key variable for markets now is duration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在市场的关键变量是持续时间。</p>
</div><p>If the Strait of Hormuz is reopened relatively quickly, the oil market may follow something close to Fitch’s base case, a sharp but temporary spike followed by a retracement as supply chains normalise and strategic reserves are deployed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果霍尔木兹海峡相对快速地重新开放，油市可能会遵循惠誉的基本情况，出现一次急剧但暂时的价格飙升，随后随着供应链正常化和战略储备的部署而回落。</p>
</div><p>However, if disruption persists beyond a few months, the dynamics shift meaningfully. A prolonged closure would force a deeper rebalancing of the market through demand destruction, higher prices, and more aggressive policy responses. In this scenario, oil would likely trade with a sustained geopolitical premium, with spikes above $130 becoming more frequent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果干扰持续超过几个月，动态将发生显著变化。长期关闭将迫使市场通过需求减少、更高的价格和更激进的政策响应进行更深层次的再平衡。在这种情况下，油价可能会持续交易于地缘政治溢价之上，130 美元以上的价格飙升将变得更加频繁。</p>
</div><p>Markets will also closely monitor the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Strategic reserve releases, alternative export routes such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, and supply responses from non-Gulf producers could help stabilise prices at the margin — but are unlikely to fully offset the loss of Hormuz flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场还将密切关注缓解措施的有效性。战略储备释放、沙特阿拉伯的东西管道等替代出口路线，以及非海湾生产者的供应响应可能会在边际上帮助稳定价格，但不太可能完全抵消霍尔木兹海峡流量的损失。</p>
</div><p>Another key risk is escalation. If infrastructure outside Hormuz, such as Red Sea routes or key export terminals, comes under sustained pressure, the supply shock could deepen further, pushing prices toward the upper end of Fitch’s projections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个关键风险是升级。如果霍尔木兹以外的基础设施，如红海航线或关键出口终端，受到持续压力，供应冲击可能进一步加深，推动价格接近惠誉预测的上限。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, the path of oil prices will hinge on whether the current الأزمة remains a contained disruption or evolves into a more prolonged structural shift in global energy flows. For now, markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to both geopolitical developments and signs of supply adjustment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，油价的走势将取决于当前的危机是否仍然是一个有限的干扰，还是演变为全球能源流动的更长期结构性变化。目前，市场可能对地缘政治发展和供应调整的迹象保持高度敏感。</p>
</div>

ICYMI: Fitch sees Brent at $120 if Hormuz closure persists in 2026

Investinglive

美国油气勘探与生产 ETF - iShares

标普全球能源股指数 ETF - iShares

能源业 ETF - Vanguard

油气服务 ETF - Market Vectors

油气开采 ETF - SPDR

能源业 ETF - SPDR

西方石油

炼油公司指数 ETF - VanEck Vectors

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

标普油气设备与服务 ETF - SPDR

美国石油设备与服务 ETF - iShares

惠誉预计，如果霍尔木兹海峡在 2026 年持续关闭，布伦特原油价格可能会达到 120 美元