<p>TradingKey - 由于伊朗战争引发的油价驱动的通胀冲击，市场对美联储降息的广泛预期已完全破灭，债券交易员现在正忙于调整他们的策略。</p>
<p>上周，主要央行关于通胀的警告导致短期收益率飙升，交易员们彻底抹去了对 2026 年进一步美联储宽松的预期，押注降息的策略遭到严重打击。</p>
<p>截至上周五，全球基准原油价格维持在自 2022 年以来的最高水平，市场情绪发生了戏剧性的逆转——一度交易员甚至预计到十月底美联储加息的概率为 50%。</p>
<p>周一，交易员进一步加大了对美联储加息的押注，预计年内将加息 20 个基点。</p>
<p>数据显示，市场对美联储今年行动的预期已从一周前的 25 个基点降息和上周五的 8 个基点加息，转变为目前的 20 个基点加息。</p>
<p>Natixis 北美区美国利率策略负责人 John Briggs 表示：“只要中东战争处于升级模式而非降级模式，市场对通胀的担忧将超过对增长的担忧，这在近期供应冲击的历史背景下是合理的——现在是观望的好时机，让尘埃落定，然后再重新评估。”</p>
<h2>地缘政治冲突升级扰动全球债券市场</h2>
<p>中东冲突引发全球债券市场的剧烈波动。由于油价飙升推动了通胀预期，全球债券市场的价值在 3 月份蒸发了超过 2.5 万亿美元，标志着自 2022 年 9 月以来最大的月度下降，滞胀的阴影笼罩市场。</p>
<p>根据彭博社汇编的数据，截至 3 月 23 日，全球政府、企业和证券化债务的总市场价值已从 2 月底的近 77 万亿美元降至 74.4 万亿美元，月度下降 3.1%。这一趋势显著异常，打破了在地缘政治动荡期间资本流入债券以寻求安全的常规。</p>
<p>两年期美国国债收益率回升至 3.9% 以上，触及自去年 7 月以来的最高水平。去年 7 月，由于就业数据疲软，国债收益率曲线的前端急剧下跌，开启了持续七个月的下行趋势；然而，自伊朗袭击以来，这些损失已完全抹去。</p>
<p>Finom Group 首席市场策略师 Seth Golden 在一篇帖子中指出，两年期国债收益率已与联邦基金利率脱钩，联邦基金期货市场正在增加对今年加息的押注，这种情况与 2022 年相似。</p>
<p>他表示，2022 年的加息对消费者经济没有产生显著影响，当时受到财政驱动因素的缓冲，特别是政府转移支付和税收立法——这种缓冲至今仍在持续。</p>
<p>他补充说，美联储主席提名人 Kevin Warsh 可能会主张利用美联储工具箱中的其他工具来应对再通胀风险，而不仅仅依赖于利率调整。</p>
<h2>中央银行陷入加息困境</h2>
<p>债券抛售的加速蔓延，市场迅速消化滞胀预期，导致多个中央银行被迫在经济下行期间加息，陷入困境。持续高企的油价迫使主要中央银行重新评估其货币政策路径，全球加息预期迅速升温。</p>
<p>法国外贸银行的利率策略团队在上周的一份客户报告中指出，如果能源价格保持高位且劳动力市场稳定，美联储可能会在 4 月的政策会议上发出加息信号。</p>
<p>在欧元区，市场预计 4 月加息 25 个基点的概率约为 71%，普遍预期欧洲央行几乎肯定会在 6 月底之前加息。就在本周一，欧洲央行副行长 Luis de Guindos 也发出了鹰派信号，暗示该行可能会采取行动以应对伊朗战争的影响而加息。</p>
<p>香港东华银行高级经济学家 Nguyen Trinh 指出，通胀压力的上升限制了中央银行的政策操作空间，迫使一些中央银行在经济下行期间加息以遏制通胀，防止本国货币贬值。</p>
<p>StoneX Group 首席市场策略师 Kathryn Rooney Vera 表示，市场开始定价即将到来的滞胀冲击，战争拖得越久，油价可能越高。</p>
<p>与此同时，全球经济将在本周迎来自中东战争爆发以来的首次 “全面检查”，多个国家将发布一系列初步的 3 月份 PMI 数据。这组数据被视为战争对全球经济影响的关键指标，将为市场提供观察企业活动和经济信心变化的重要窗口。</p>
<p>周二，包括澳大利亚、日本、印度、欧元区、英国和美国在内的主要全球经济体将同时发布初步 PMI 数据，形成 “全球 PMI 日”。</p>
<p>行业专家普遍预计，由于能源价格飙升和供应链中断，许多国家的制造业和服务业 PMI 数据可能会同步走弱，制造业面临的压力可能尤其显著。分析师指出，这是战争开始以来市场首次收到定量证据，以评估对全球经济的累积影响。</p>
<p>标准普尔全球市场情报的首席商业经济学家 Chris Williamson 强调，尽管当前市场关注点集中在战争带来的通胀压力上，但中央银行也需要警惕其带来的衰退风险。因此，PMI 数据中反映的需求疲软和信心下降的信号将成为政策制定者的关键关注点。</p>
<p>了解更多</p>

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<p>正在进行的伊朗战争大幅改变了市场对美联储降息的预期，交易员们现在预计由于油价飙升导致的通胀上升，年底前将加息 20 个基点。全球债券市场经历了显著的波动，价值损失超过 2.5 万亿美元，中央银行面临在经济下行压力下加息的压力。分析师表示，持续高企的油价可能迫使中央银行调整货币政策，预计美国和欧元区都将加息</p>

<p>TradingKey - Following the oil-price-driven inflationary shock triggered by the war in Iran, widespread market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been completely dashed, and bond traders are now scrambling to adjust their strategies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 由于伊朗战争引发的油价驱动的通胀冲击，市场对美联储降息的广泛预期已完全破灭，债券交易员现在正忙于调整他们的策略。</p>
</div><p>Last week, warnings from major central banks regarding inflation sent short-term yields surging, leading traders to completely erase expectations for further Fed easing through 2026, as strategies betting on rate cuts were broadly hammered.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，主要央行关于通胀的警告导致短期收益率飙升，交易员们彻底抹去了对 2026 年进一步美联储宽松的预期，押注降息的策略遭到严重打击。</p>
</div><p>By last Friday, as global benchmark crude oil prices remained at their highest levels since 2022, market sentiment underwent a dramatic reversal—at one point, traders even priced in a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至上周五，全球基准原油价格维持在自 2022 年以来的最高水平，市场情绪发生了戏剧性的逆转——一度交易员甚至预计到十月底美联储加息的概率为 50%。</p>
</div><p>On Monday, traders further ramped up bets on Fed rate hikes, pricing in a 20-basis-point increase by the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周一，交易员进一步加大了对美联储加息的押注，预计年内将加息 20 个基点。</p>
</div><p>Data shows that market expectations for Fed action this year have shifted from a 25-basis-point cut a week ago and an 8-basis-point hike last Friday to a 20-basis-point hike currently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据显示，市场对美联储今年行动的预期已从一周前的 25 个基点降息和上周五的 8 个基点加息，转变为目前的 20 个基点加息。</p>
</div><p>John Briggs, Head of US Rates Strategy at Natixis North America, stated: &#34;As long as the war in the Middle East is in escalation mode rather than de-escalation mode, market concerns over inflation will outweigh concerns over growth, which is reasonable given the history of recent supply shocks—now is a good time to sit on the sidelines, let the dust settle, and then reassess.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Natixis 北美区美国利率策略负责人 John Briggs 表示：“只要中东战争处于升级模式而非降级模式，市场对通胀的担忧将超过对增长的担忧，这在近期供应冲击的历史背景下是合理的——现在是观望的好时机，让尘埃落定，然后再重新评估。”</p>
</div><h2>Escalating Geopolitical Conflict Roils Global Bond Markets</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>地缘政治冲突升级扰动全球债券市场</h2>
</div><p>The conflict in the Middle East is triggering severe volatility in global bond markets. Driven by soaring oil prices that have pushed up inflation expectations, global bond market value evaporated by more than $2.5 trillion in March, marking the largest monthly decline since September 2022 as the specter of stagflation looms over the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中东冲突引发全球债券市场的剧烈波动。由于油价飙升推动了通胀预期，全球债券市场的价值在 3 月份蒸发了超过 2.5 万亿美元，标志着自 2022 年 9 月以来最大的月度下降，滞胀的阴影笼罩市场。</p>
</div><p>According to data compiled by Bloomberg, as of March 23, the total market value of global government, corporate, and securitized debt has fallen from nearly $77 trillion at the end of February to $74.4 trillion, a monthly decline of 3.1%. This trend is notably anomalous, breaking the convention of capital flowing into bonds for safety during periods of geopolitical turmoil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据彭博社汇编的数据，截至 3 月 23 日，全球政府、企业和证券化债务的总市场价值已从 2 月底的近 77 万亿美元降至 74.4 万亿美元，月度下降 3.1%。这一趋势显著异常，打破了在地缘政治动荡期间资本流入债券以寻求安全的常规。</p>
</div><p>The two-year U.S. Treasury yield returned above 3.9%, touching its highest level since last July. In July of last year, the front end of the Treasury yield curve plunged sharply due to weak employment data, initiating a steady seven-month downward trend; however, these losses have been entirely erased since the attack on Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>两年期美国国债收益率回升至 3.9% 以上，触及自去年 7 月以来的最高水平。去年 7 月，由于就业数据疲软，国债收益率曲线的前端急剧下跌，开启了持续七个月的下行趋势；然而，自伊朗袭击以来，这些损失已完全抹去。</p>
</div><p>Seth Golden, chief market strategist at Finom Group, noted in a post that the two-year Treasury yield has decoupled from the federal funds rate, and the federal funds futures market is increasing bets on a rate hike this year, a situation mirroring 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Finom Group 首席市场策略师 Seth Golden 在一篇帖子中指出，两年期国债收益率已与联邦基金利率脱钩，联邦基金期货市场正在增加对今年加息的押注，这种情况与 2022 年相似。</p>
</div><p>He stated that the 2022 rate hikes did not have a significant impact on the consumer economy, which was cushioned by fiscal-driven factors at the time, specifically government transfer payments and tax legislation—a buffer that continues to persist today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示，2022 年的加息对消费者经济没有产生显著影响，当时受到财政驱动因素的缓冲，特别是政府转移支付和税收立法——这种缓冲至今仍在持续。</p>
</div><p>He added that Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh might advocate for utilizing other tools in the Federal Reserve's toolkit to address reflation risks, rather than relying solely on interest rate adjustments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充说，美联储主席提名人 Kevin Warsh 可能会主张利用美联储工具箱中的其他工具来应对再通胀风险，而不仅仅依赖于利率调整。</p>
</div><h2>Central Bank Caught in Rate Hike Dilemma</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中央银行陷入加息困境</h2>
</div><p>The bond sell-off is accelerating its spread as markets rapidly digest stagflation expectations, leaving multiple central banks caught in the dilemma of being forced to raise interest rates during an economic downturn. Persistently high oil prices are compelling major central banks to reassess their monetary policy paths, and global rate hike expectations are heating up quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>债券抛售的加速蔓延，市场迅速消化滞胀预期，导致多个中央银行被迫在经济下行期间加息，陷入困境。持续高企的油价迫使主要中央银行重新评估其货币政策路径，全球加息预期迅速升温。</p>
</div><p>BNP Paribas' interest rate strategy team noted in a client report last week that if energy prices remain high and the labor market stays stable, the Federal Reserve may signal a rate hike at its April policy meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法国外贸银行的利率策略团队在上周的一份客户报告中指出，如果能源价格保持高位且劳动力市场稳定，美联储可能会在 4 月的政策会议上发出加息信号。</p>
</div><p>In the Eurozone, markets see a roughly 71% probability of a 25-basis-point hike in April, with widespread expectations that the European Central Bank is almost certain to raise rates by at least the end of June. Just this Monday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos also issued hawkish signals, suggesting the bank might take action to raise rates in response to the impacts of the war in Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在欧元区，市场预计 4 月加息 25 个基点的概率约为 71%，普遍预期欧洲央行几乎肯定会在 6 月底之前加息。就在本周一，欧洲央行副行长 Luis de Guindos 也发出了鹰派信号，暗示该行可能会采取行动以应对伊朗战争的影响而加息。</p>
</div><p>Nguyen Trinh, a senior economist at Donghua Bank in Hong Kong, pointed out that higher inflationary pressures have constrained central banks' policy maneuvering room, forcing some to raise interest rates during an economic downturn to curb inflation and prevent domestic currency depreciation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>香港东华银行高级经济学家 Nguyen Trinh 指出，通胀压力的上升限制了中央银行的政策操作空间，迫使一些中央银行在经济下行期间加息以遏制通胀，防止本国货币贬值。</p>
</div><p>Kathryn Rooney Vera, Chief Market Strategist at StoneX Group, stated that the market is beginning to price in the impending stagflation shock, and the longer the war drags on, the higher oil prices may rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>StoneX Group 首席市场策略师 Kathryn Rooney Vera 表示，市场开始定价即将到来的滞胀冲击，战争拖得越久，油价可能越高。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the global economy will face its first &#34;comprehensive check-up&#34; this week since the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, as multiple countries release a flurry of preliminary March PMI data. This data set is seen as a key indicator of the war's impact on the global economy and will provide the market with an important window to observe changes in corporate activity and economic confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，全球经济将在本周迎来自中东战争爆发以来的首次 “全面检查”，多个国家将发布一系列初步的 3 月份 PMI 数据。这组数据被视为战争对全球经济影响的关键指标，将为市场提供观察企业活动和经济信心变化的重要窗口。</p>
</div><p>On Tuesday, major global economies including Australia, Japan, India, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US will simultaneously release preliminary PMI data, forming a &#34;Global PMI Day.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二，包括澳大利亚、日本、印度、欧元区、英国和美国在内的主要全球经济体将同时发布初步 PMI 数据，形成 “全球 PMI 日”。</p>
</div><p>Industry experts generally expect that, due to surging energy prices and supply chain disruptions, manufacturing and services PMI data in many countries may weaken in tandem, with the pressure on manufacturing likely to be particularly significant. Analysts pointed out that this will be the first time in the three weeks since the war began that the market has received quantitative evidence to gauge the cumulative impact on the global economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>行业专家普遍预计，由于能源价格飙升和供应链中断，许多国家的制造业和服务业 PMI 数据可能会同步走弱，制造业面临的压力可能尤其显著。分析师指出，这是战争开始以来市场首次收到定量证据，以评估对全球经济的累积影响。</p>
</div><p>Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, emphasized that while current market focus is concentrated on the inflationary push from the war, central banks also need to be wary of the recessionary risks it brings. Therefore, signals of weak demand and declining confidence reflected in the PMI data will also be a key focus for policymakers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔全球市场情报的首席商业经济学家 Chris Williamson 强调，尽管当前市场关注点集中在战争带来的通胀压力上，但中央银行也需要警惕其带来的衰退风险。因此，PMI 数据中反映的需求疲软和信心下降的信号将成为政策制定者的关键关注点。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
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A 20-Basis-Point Rate Hike? Iran War Rewrites Fed Monetary Policy, Global Bond Markets Under Pressure

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20 个基点的加息？伊朗战争重塑美联储货币政策，全球债券市场面临压力