<p>作者：安东尼·J·庞普利亚诺，专业资本管理创始人兼首席执行官；翻译：Shaw &amp; 金色财经</p>
<p><strong>黄金、债券和比特币反映了当前金融市场的真实趋势。</strong> 我们最近看到黄金价格暴跌至每盎司 4100 美元，债券价格持续上涨，而自冲突爆发以来，比特币上涨了约 8%。</p>
<p>那么，为什么会发生这一切？这三种资产类别为我们预示了什么未来趋势？</p>
<p>我们可以从债券开始。多年来，数万亿美元流入美国国债市场。美国国债因其极高的流动性、几乎为零的信用风险、可预测的回报以及州和地方税收的优势而对投资者极具吸引力。** 通常，在不确定性加剧的时期，避险需求会推高国债价格并压低收益率。** 这种需求源于投资者希望避免在股票和公司债券中可能出现的大额损失。美国政府被广泛视为金融市场的最终安全网，因此国债被认为是风险最低的资产。** 然而，在伊朗冲突期间，市场的反应却截然不同：**** 国债收益率上升，价格下跌。** 这主要是由于油价的急剧上涨，带来了滞涨的典型风险。** 滞涨风险使得美联储对降息感到犹豫，通胀担忧重新浮现。** 通胀担忧改变了投资者的决策逻辑，阻止他们积极推高国债价格并压低收益率。自 2 月 28 日以来，美国国债实际上成为主要资产中表现最差的之一，完全违背了传统市场逻辑。但如果债市的这种异常表现伴随着一种罕见而极端的威胁呢？如果购买美国国债可能招致导弹攻击呢？这并非假设。昨晚，伊朗议会议长在推特上发布了一条措辞极为强烈的推文，内容如下：“除了军事基地，所有资助美国军事预算的金融实体都是合法目标。美国国债沾染了伊朗人民的鲜血。购买这些债券等同于邀请对你的总部和资产进行攻击。我们正在监控你的投资组合。这是最后通牒。” 这个威胁有多严重？我无法判断。但金融机构可能成为与美国直接军事冲突的国家的目标这一想法令人不安。这一声明会阻止人们购买美国国债吗？可能不会。但历史上发生过更离奇的事情。这一最新威胁只是伊朗应对当前冲突的又一个例子。他们继续向美国军事基地和邻近中东国家的能源设施发射导弹和无人机，封锁霍尔木兹海峡，并攻击试图穿越这一危险水域的多艘船只。就在这个周末，伊朗还威胁要切断海峡的海底互联网电缆。这一策略让我想起了一条在 Reddit 上广为流传的帖子，解释了为什么你永远不应该与失去理智的人对抗：“永远不要与不可预测、精神不稳定或不讲道理的人打架。这些人往往不受约束，会使用 ‘卑鄙’ 的手段将你拖入他们的层次，而你无论如何都会失败。他们更危险，因为他们不可预测且无所畏惧。” 这种不可预测性，加上他们造成最大破坏的意图，使美国处于一种不寻常的境地。我们可以随时停止轰炸该国并宣布胜利，但没有保证伊朗会停止攻击其邻国或放弃其核武器计划。在这种高度不确定的时期，黄金价格应该迅速上涨是合乎逻辑的。投资者通常会转向避险资产，希望对抗因融资战争而导致的货币贬值风险。但在这场冲突中，情况并非如此。黄金价格暴跌，自冲突开始以来下跌了约 13%。一些人可能将这种抛售归因于美联储可能加息，但我不同意。我更倾向于相信，东方世界的个人、机构和国家正面临流动性危机。这些正是过去两年大量购买黄金的群体。因此，随着美元走强，这些黄金持有者可能因流动性需求而出售黄金——这是筹集现金的最简单方式。这将我们引向比特币。这种加密货币在这场冲突中成为一个被忽视的赢家。Ash Crypto 数据显示：“自美伊冲突爆发以来，比特币相对于黄金上涨了 34%。” 这种强劲表现受到多种因素的推动，但我真心相信，世界正在认识到比特币作为一种非主权、去中心化资产的魅力——它可以在几秒钟内转移到世界任何地方。在我们即将进入的未来，不依赖空运的价值储存的吸引力显而易见。因此，在这场战争结束之前，我的判断是：油价将继续上涨，债券和黄金将保持压力，而比特币将超越其他价值储存。这可能不是投资者在冲突爆发前所预期的，但这就是现实。教科书理论无法改变真实市场。记住这一点：一旦伊朗战争结束，金融市场必然会迅速反弹。特朗普总统在周五晚些时候告诉记者，美国即将逐步结束冲突，而股市在盘后交易中几乎瞬间上涨，这清楚地证明了这一点。因此，投资者现在正在进行一场赌博。我们愿意接受多大的回撤来押注特朗普政府达成停火？我们都知道，在风向变化时持有头寸可能会带来可观的回报，但精确的时机几乎是不可能的。这意味着你要么接受投资组合的回撤，要么退出市场，冒着错过反弹的风险。每个投资者都有不同的策略。但有一点是不可否认的……金融资产的运动正受到中东的炸弹、国内油价和白宫占有者的推文的支配。生活在这个时代真是令人惊叹。</p>

GDXW

紫金矿业

20 年期以上美国国债 ETF - iShares

<p>黄金、债券和比特币反映了当前金融市场的真实趋势。黄金价格已暴跌至每盎司 4100 美元，而债券价格则在上涨，自冲突开始以来，比特币上涨了约 8%。通常被视为安全的美国国债因滞胀风险和来自伊朗的威胁表现不佳。黄金价格已下跌约 13%，这可能与东方世界的流动性需求有关。相比之下，比特币相对于黄金上涨了 34%，突显了其在市场动荡中作为去中心化资产的吸引力</p>

<p>Author: Anthony J. Pompliano, Founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management; Translated by: Shaw &amp; Jinse Finance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安东尼·J·庞普利亚诺，专业资本管理创始人兼首席执行官；翻译：Shaw &amp; 金色财经</p>
</div><p><strong>Gold, bonds, and Bitcoin are reflecting the true trends of the current financial markets.</strong> We have recently seen gold prices plummet to $4,100 per ounce, bond prices continue to rise, and Bitcoin has risen by about 8% since the outbreak of the conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>黄金、债券和比特币反映了当前金融市场的真实趋势。</strong> 我们最近看到黄金价格暴跌至每盎司 4100 美元，债券价格持续上涨，而自冲突爆发以来，比特币上涨了约 8%。</p>
</div><p>So why is all this happening? What future trends do these three asset classes foreshadow for us?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，为什么会发生这一切？这三种资产类别为我们预示了什么未来趋势？</p>
</div><p>We can start with bonds. Over the years, trillions of dollars have flowed into the US Treasury market. U.S. Treasury bonds are highly attractive to investors due to their extremely high liquidity, near-zero credit risk, predictable returns, and tax advantages at the state and local levels. **Typically, during periods of heightened uncertainty, safe-haven demand drives up Treasury prices and suppresses yields.** This demand stems from investors' desire to avoid potentially large losses in stocks and corporate bonds. The U.S. government is widely regarded as the ultimate safety net for financial markets, thus Treasury bonds are considered the lowest-risk asset. **However, during the Iran conflict, the market reacted quite differently:** **Treasury yields rose, and prices fell.** This was due to a sharp rise in oil prices, which brought the typical risk of stagflation. **Stagflation risk made the Federal Reserve hesitant to cut interest rates, and inflation concerns resurfaced.** Inflation concerns altered investors' decision-making logic, preventing them from aggressively pushing up Treasury prices and suppressing yields. Since February 28, U.S. Treasury bonds have actually been one of the worst-performing major assets, completely contrary to conventional market logic. But what if this abnormal performance in the bond market is accompanied by a rare and extreme threat? What if buying U.S. Treasury bonds could invite a missile attack? This is not hypothetical. Last night, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament posted a tweet with extremely strong language, which read as follows: &#34;Apart from military bases, all financial entities that fund the US military budget are legitimate targets. US Treasury bonds are stained with the blood of the Iranian people. Buying these bonds is tantamount to inviting attacks on your headquarters and assets. We are monitoring your investment portfolios. This is an ultimatum.&#34; How serious is this threat? I cannot judge. But the very idea that financial institutions could become targets of countries engaged in direct military conflict with the United States is unsettling. Will this statement deter people from buying US Treasury bonds? Probably not. But even more bizarre things have happened in history. This latest threat is just another example of Iran's strategy for dealing with the current conflict. They continue to launch missiles and drones at US military bases and energy facilities in several neighboring Middle Eastern countries, have blocked the Strait of Hormuz, and attacked numerous ships attempting to cross this dangerous waterway. And just this weekend, Iran also threatened to cut the undersea internet cable in the strait. This strategy reminds me of a long-circulated Reddit post explaining why you should never confront someone who has lost their temper: &#34;Never get into a fight with someone who is unpredictable, mentally unstable, or unreasonable. These people are often unrestrained and will use 'despicable' tactics to drag you down to their level, and you'll lose no matter what. They are more dangerous because they are unpredictable and fearless.&#34; This unpredictability, coupled with their intent to cause maximum destruction, has put the United States in an unusual position. We can stop bombing the country and declare victory at any time, but there's no guarantee that Iran will stop attacking its neighbors or abandon its nuclear weapons program. In such times of heightened uncertainty, gold prices should logically rise rapidly. Investors often turn to safe-haven assets, hoping to hedge against the risk of currency devaluation caused by financing war. But in this conflict, this is not the case. Gold prices have plummeted, falling approximately 13% since the conflict began. Some might attribute this sell-off to a potential Federal Reserve interest rate hike, but I disagree. I'm more inclined to believe that individuals, institutions, and nations in the Eastern world are facing a liquidity crisis. These are precisely the groups that have been buying gold heavily over the past two years. Therefore, with the dollar strengthening, these gold holders are likely selling their gold due to liquidity needs—the easiest way to raise cash. This brings us to Bitcoin. This cryptocurrency has become an overlooked winner in this conflict. Ash Crypto data shows that &#34;Bitcoin has risen 34% relative to gold in the 23 days since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict.&#34; This strong performance is driven by multiple factors, but I genuinely believe the world is recognizing the allure of Bitcoin as a non-sovereign, decentralized asset—it can be transferred anywhere in the world in seconds. In the future we are about to enter, the appeal of a store of value that doesn't rely on air transport is self-evident. Therefore, before this war ends, my judgment is: oil prices will continue to rise, bonds and gold will remain under pressure, while Bitcoin will outperform other stores of value. This may not have been what investors expected before the conflict broke out, but it is the reality. Textbook theories cannot change the real market. Remember this: once the Iran war ends, financial markets will inevitably rebound sharply. The fact that President Trump told reporters late Friday that the US was about to gradually end the conflict, and the stock market rose almost instantly in after-hours trading, is clear evidence of this. So investors are now playing a gamble. How much drawdown are we willing to accept to bet on the Trump administration reaching a ceasefire? We all know that holding positions when the wind changes can yield substantial returns, but precise timing is almost impossible. This means you either have to accept portfolio drawdowns or stay out of the market and risk missing out on the rebound. Every investor has a different strategy. But one thing is undeniable… the movement of financial assets is being dictated by bombs in the Middle East, domestic oil prices, and tweets from the White House occupant. It's truly remarkable to live in this era.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们可以从债券开始。多年来，数万亿美元流入美国国债市场。美国国债因其极高的流动性、几乎为零的信用风险、可预测的回报以及州和地方税收的优势而对投资者极具吸引力。** 通常，在不确定性加剧的时期，避险需求会推高国债价格并压低收益率。** 这种需求源于投资者希望避免在股票和公司债券中可能出现的大额损失。美国政府被广泛视为金融市场的最终安全网，因此国债被认为是风险最低的资产。** 然而，在伊朗冲突期间，市场的反应却截然不同：**** 国债收益率上升，价格下跌。** 这主要是由于油价的急剧上涨，带来了滞涨的典型风险。** 滞涨风险使得美联储对降息感到犹豫，通胀担忧重新浮现。** 通胀担忧改变了投资者的决策逻辑，阻止他们积极推高国债价格并压低收益率。自 2 月 28 日以来，美国国债实际上成为主要资产中表现最差的之一，完全违背了传统市场逻辑。但如果债市的这种异常表现伴随着一种罕见而极端的威胁呢？如果购买美国国债可能招致导弹攻击呢？这并非假设。昨晚，伊朗议会议长在推特上发布了一条措辞极为强烈的推文，内容如下：“除了军事基地，所有资助美国军事预算的金融实体都是合法目标。美国国债沾染了伊朗人民的鲜血。购买这些债券等同于邀请对你的总部和资产进行攻击。我们正在监控你的投资组合。这是最后通牒。” 这个威胁有多严重？我无法判断。但金融机构可能成为与美国直接军事冲突的国家的目标这一想法令人不安。这一声明会阻止人们购买美国国债吗？可能不会。但历史上发生过更离奇的事情。这一最新威胁只是伊朗应对当前冲突的又一个例子。他们继续向美国军事基地和邻近中东国家的能源设施发射导弹和无人机，封锁霍尔木兹海峡，并攻击试图穿越这一危险水域的多艘船只。就在这个周末，伊朗还威胁要切断海峡的海底互联网电缆。这一策略让我想起了一条在 Reddit 上广为流传的帖子，解释了为什么你永远不应该与失去理智的人对抗：“永远不要与不可预测、精神不稳定或不讲道理的人打架。这些人往往不受约束，会使用 ‘卑鄙’ 的手段将你拖入他们的层次，而你无论如何都会失败。他们更危险，因为他们不可预测且无所畏惧。” 这种不可预测性，加上他们造成最大破坏的意图，使美国处于一种不寻常的境地。我们可以随时停止轰炸该国并宣布胜利，但没有保证伊朗会停止攻击其邻国或放弃其核武器计划。在这种高度不确定的时期，黄金价格应该迅速上涨是合乎逻辑的。投资者通常会转向避险资产，希望对抗因融资战争而导致的货币贬值风险。但在这场冲突中，情况并非如此。黄金价格暴跌，自冲突开始以来下跌了约 13%。一些人可能将这种抛售归因于美联储可能加息，但我不同意。我更倾向于相信，东方世界的个人、机构和国家正面临流动性危机。这些正是过去两年大量购买黄金的群体。因此，随着美元走强，这些黄金持有者可能因流动性需求而出售黄金——这是筹集现金的最简单方式。这将我们引向比特币。这种加密货币在这场冲突中成为一个被忽视的赢家。Ash Crypto 数据显示：“自美伊冲突爆发以来，比特币相对于黄金上涨了 34%。” 这种强劲表现受到多种因素的推动，但我真心相信，世界正在认识到比特币作为一种非主权、去中心化资产的魅力——它可以在几秒钟内转移到世界任何地方。在我们即将进入的未来，不依赖空运的价值储存的吸引力显而易见。因此，在这场战争结束之前，我的判断是：油价将继续上涨，债券和黄金将保持压力，而比特币将超越其他价值储存。这可能不是投资者在冲突爆发前所预期的，但这就是现实。教科书理论无法改变真实市场。记住这一点：一旦伊朗战争结束，金融市场必然会迅速反弹。特朗普总统在周五晚些时候告诉记者，美国即将逐步结束冲突，而股市在盘后交易中几乎瞬间上涨，这清楚地证明了这一点。因此，投资者现在正在进行一场赌博。我们愿意接受多大的回撤来押注特朗普政府达成停火？我们都知道，在风向变化时持有头寸可能会带来可观的回报，但精确的时机几乎是不可能的。这意味着你要么接受投资组合的回撤，要么退出市场，冒着错过反弹的风险。每个投资者都有不同的策略。但有一点是不可否认的……金融资产的运动正受到中东的炸弹、国内油价和白宫占有者的推文的支配。生活在这个时代真是令人惊叹。</p>
</div>

Gold, Bonds, and Bitcoin: Three Revealers of the Truths of the Financial Markets

- 金价骤降至 $4,100 ，债券收益上升，Bitcoin 在冲突中上涨约 8%。
- 美国国债面临伊朗威胁，或导致金融市场动荡与不确定性加剧。
- 预计战后金融市场将强劲反弹，投资者正面临重要选择。

黄金、债券和比特币：揭示金融市场真相的三大揭示者