<p>一位加密货币分析师此前曾警告交易者和投资者，最近比特币（BTC）价格的飙升可能是一个假象，现在他分享了新的更新。确认他之前的预测是准确的，这位分析师现在提供了比特币在持续熊市中真正走向的见解。</p>
<p><strong>比特币价格接下来将走向何方</strong></p>
<p>DeFi 研究员和市场分析师 Sherlock 在 X 上分享了他上周早些时候发布的分析的新更新。在这份新报告中，Sherlock 提出了一个相当不祥的比特币价格预测，暗示全球最大的加密货币即将朝着约 53,000 美元的新低迈进。</p>
<p>他强调，53,000 美元的水平并不是一个随机的看跌目标，而是经过多重数据信号汇聚后确立的一个点，这也对应于比特币下一个每周支撑位。根据 Sherlock 的说法，比特币上周接近 76,000 美元的历史高点是他所预期的偏差，尽管一些交易者希望反弹能够成为可持续的突破。</p>
<p>分析师指出，如果每周蜡烛图在 72,500 美元以下收盘，预计将确认这一偏差趋势。Sherlock 还提到了 1 月份的价格走势，当时比特币价格攀升至 94,500 美元，然后大约下跌了 38%。通常，在加密市场术语中，这种行为被称为 “假突破”，即价格短暂突破关键阻力位，诱使交易者入场，然后迅速反转。</p>
<p>目前，比特币价格徘徊在 68,100 美元左右，比上周创下的 76,000 美元的前高低了超过 10%。在美国联邦储备委员会（FED）发布鹰派立场的报告后，这种加密货币在一天内经历了急剧且意外的崩溃。在那天短暂下跌至 70,000 美元水平后，比特币继续走低。</p>
<p>CoinMarketCap 的数据显示，BTC 的下跌还受到地缘政治紧张局势加剧的进一步推动，此前美国总统唐纳德·特朗普向伊朗发出了 48 小时的最后通牒，导致风险资产普遍抛售。</p>
<p><strong>回顾比特币的 76,000 美元假象</strong></p>
<p>在他之前的分析中，Sherlock 警告交易者不要被短期比特币价格的飙升所诱惑。他指出，在 2026 年 1 月的最后一次重大偏差中，许多交易者进行了多头操作，结果在接下来的五周内比特币价格崩溃，遭受了重大损失。</p>
<p>分析师曾警告，如果比特币未能在每周图表上收盘高于 74,500 美元，那么其短暂反弹将不过是一个偏差，而不是真正的突破。Sherlock 补充道，考虑到上周的 FOMC 会议和市场共识预计将再次暂停加息，比特币的前景远非看涨。他将比特币之前的反弹形容为一个陷阱，可能是为了诱使投资者和交易者过早进入多头头寸。</p>

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<p>一位加密货币分析师警告称，比特币最近飙升至 76,000 美元是一次偶然现象，预测将回落至约 53,000 美元。分析师 Sherlock 强调，这一目标是基于多个数据信号，并与比特币的下一个支撑位相一致。他指出，价格下跌受到地缘政治紧张局势和美国联邦储备委员会鹰派立场的加剧影响。Sherlock 警告交易者不要被短期的价格波动误导，建议近期的反弹是对过早做多头寸的陷阱</p>

<p>A crypto analyst who previously warned traders and investors that the recent Bitcoin (BTC) price surge could be a fluke has shared a new update. Confirming that his earlier prediction was accurate, the analyst now provides insight on where Bitcoin is really headed as it continues to navigate the ongoing bear market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一位加密货币分析师此前曾警告交易者和投资者，最近比特币（BTC）价格的飙升可能是一个假象，现在他分享了新的更新。确认他之前的预测是准确的，这位分析师现在提供了比特币在持续熊市中真正走向的见解。</p>
</div><p><strong>Where The Bitcoin Price Is Headed Next</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特币价格接下来将走向何方</strong></p>
</div><p>DeFi researcher and market analyst Sherlock has taken to X to share a fresh update on an analysis he published earlier last week. In this new report, Sherlock presented a rather foreboding Bitcoin price forecast, suggesting that the world’s largest cryptocurrency is heading toward new lows around $53,000 soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DeFi 研究员和市场分析师 Sherlock 在 X 上分享了他上周早些时候发布的分析的新更新。在这份新报告中，Sherlock 提出了一个相当不祥的比特币价格预测，暗示全球最大的加密货币即将朝着约 53,000 美元的新低迈进。</p>
</div><p>He emphasized that the $53,000 level was not a random bearish target but a point established after multiple data signals converged, which also corresponds to Bitcoin’s next weekly support level. According to Sherlock, Bitcoin’s record high last week near $76,000 was a deviation he had anticipated despite some traders hoping that the rebound could become a sustainable breakout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他强调，53,000 美元的水平并不是一个随机的看跌目标，而是经过多重数据信号汇聚后确立的一个点，这也对应于比特币下一个每周支撑位。根据 Sherlock 的说法，比特币上周接近 76,000 美元的历史高点是他所预期的偏差，尽管一些交易者希望反弹能够成为可持续的突破。</p>
</div><p>The analyst noted that the weekly candle on the chart is expected to confirm this deviation trend if it closes below $72,500. Sherlock also drew parallels to a January price movement, when the Bitcoin price climbed to $94,500 before crashing by approximately 38%. Usually, in crypto market terms, this type of action is called a “fakeout,” which is when the price briefly breaches key resistance levels, enticing traders to enter positions, before rapidly reversing in the opposite direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师指出，如果每周蜡烛图在 72,500 美元以下收盘，预计将确认这一偏差趋势。Sherlock 还提到了 1 月份的价格走势，当时比特币价格攀升至 94,500 美元，然后大约下跌了 38%。通常，在加密市场术语中，这种行为被称为 “假突破”，即价格短暂突破关键阻力位，诱使交易者入场，然后迅速反转。</p>
</div><p>Currently, the Bitcoin price is hovering around $68,100, more than 10% below its previous high of $76,000 set last week. The cryptocurrency suffered a sharp, unexpected collapse in a single day following reports of a hawkish stance by the US Federal Reserve (FED). After briefly dipping toward the $70,000 level that day, Bitcoin has continued on a downward trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，比特币价格徘徊在 68,100 美元左右，比上周创下的 76,000 美元的前高低了超过 10%。在美国联邦储备委员会（FED）发布鹰派立场的报告后，这种加密货币在一天内经历了急剧且意外的崩溃。在那天短暂下跌至 70,000 美元水平后，比特币继续走低。</p>
</div><p>Data from CoinMarketCap also indicate that BTC’s decline was further accelerated by a surge in geopolitical tensions, after US President Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, triggering a broader sell-off across risk assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CoinMarketCap 的数据显示，BTC 的下跌还受到地缘政治紧张局势加剧的进一步推动，此前美国总统唐纳德·特朗普向伊朗发出了 48 小时的最后通牒，导致风险资产普遍抛售。</p>
</div><p><strong>A Look Back At BTC’s $76,000 Fluke</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>回顾比特币的 76,000 美元假象</strong></p>
</div><p>In his previous analysis, Sherlock had cautioned traders not to get baited by short-term Bitcoin price spikes. He noted that during the last major deviation in January 2026, many traders went long, only to incur significant losses after Bitcoin’s price collapsed over the next five weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在他之前的分析中，Sherlock 警告交易者不要被短期比特币价格的飙升所诱惑。他指出，在 2026 年 1 月的最后一次重大偏差中，许多交易者进行了多头操作，结果在接下来的五周内比特币价格崩溃，遭受了重大损失。</p>
</div><p>The analyst had warned that if Bitcoin fails to close above $74,500 on the weekly chart, its brief rebound would be nothing more than a deviation, not a true breakout. Sherlock added that, with the FOMC meeting last week and market consensus expecting another interest-rate pause, the outlook for Bitcoin is far from bullish. He described Bitcoin’s previous rebound as a trap, likely engineered to lure investors and traders into long positions prematurely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师曾警告，如果比特币未能在每周图表上收盘高于 74,500 美元，那么其短暂反弹将不过是一个偏差，而不是真正的突破。Sherlock 补充道，考虑到上周的 FOMC 会议和市场共识预计将再次暂停加息，比特币的前景远非看涨。他将比特币之前的反弹形容为一个陷阱，可能是为了诱使投资者和交易者过早进入多头头寸。</p>
</div>

Bitcoin At $76,000 Was A Fluke: Here’s What The Price Is Really Headed

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比特币达到 76,000 美元是偶然现象：以下是价格的真正趋势