<p>你知道 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN +2.33%）的股票在过去五年中仅累计上涨了 34% 吗？没错，这家科技巨头的表现严重低于股市指数，例如 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong>，在同一时间段内产生了 78% 的总回报。</p><p>亚马逊的股票表现不佳，原因在于华尔街对其在人工智能（AI）基础设施上的大量投资持怀疑态度，以及这将对未来现金流产生的影响。</p><p>在一个世代交替的关键时刻，亚马逊的股票对长期投资者来说是个好买入吗？还是一个价值陷阱，其业务已经过时？</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/dc17c7d3cc289ac87fa85d97b3917582?x-oss-process=style/lg" width="3840" height="2160" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/dc17c7d3cc289ac87fa85d97b3917582"/></figure><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="xf4gs882">投资回报的不确定性</h2><p>作为云计算基础设施的基石之一，亚马逊网络服务（AWS）正面临客户需求的显著激增，包括来自 Anthropic 的需求，该公司每年从亚马逊购买价值数十亿美元的计算服务。尽管去年产生了约 1290 亿美元的销售额，AWS 的收入增长在上个季度加速至同比 24%。</p><p>亚马逊首席执行官安迪·贾西（Andy Jassy）相信，AWS 在未来十年内可以增长到 6000 亿美元的收入，得益于这一人工智能需求的激增。为了实现这一愿景，公司正在投入大量资金建设客户数据中心。今年，预计将花费 2000 亿美元用于资本支出，主要与人工智能相关。去年，亚马逊的运营现金流为 1400 亿美元，预计在 2026 年可能会出现负自由现金流，并可能持续多年。</p><p>展开</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/111b96cfe23c3f60bf2b4d4ceac13713?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="亚马逊股票报价" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/111b96cfe23c3f60bf2b4d4ceac13713"/></figure><h2 id="oda3tpou">NASDAQ: AMZN</h2><p>亚马逊</p><p>今日变动</p><p>(2.33%) $4.78</p><p>当前价格</p><p>$210.15</p><h3 id="w2unzw1hd">关键数据点</h3><p>市值</p><p>$2.3 万亿</p><p>日内区间</p><p>$209.51 - $212.80</p><p>52 周区间</p><p>$161.38 - $258.60</p><p>成交量</p><p>260 万</p><p>平均成交量</p><p>4900 万</p><p>毛利率</p><p>50.29%</p><p>这使得公司不得不在资产负债表上增加债务，仅在 2025 年底和 2026 年初就筹集了约 690 亿美元。华尔街对在不确定的人工智能领域增加债务感到紧张。如果需求没有如亚马逊预期的那样实现，可能会留下由债务资助的闲置数据中心。在短期内，这可能会压垮亚马逊的收益。</p><p>现在是买入亚马逊股票的时候吗？</p><p>尽管短期内存在不确定性和负现金流，但对于时间跨度在十年或更长的投资者来说，亚马逊的股票可能是便宜的。云计算有巨大的顺风，AWS 可以利用这一点，即使在过程中会有波动。</p><p>亚马逊的电子商务和零售业务也表现良好，2025 年创下了创纪录的利润率。整体而言，亚马逊去年产生了 850 亿美元的 息税前利润（EBIT）。如果 AWS 能够在 2036 年前接近贾西的预期增长，而电子商务继续保持稳定增长，亚马逊的业务可能会超过 1.5 万亿美元的销售额，这可能意味着数百亿美元的收益。即使市值为 2.2 万亿美元，这也将是一个非常便宜的前瞻市盈率（P/E）。</p><p>放眼长远。尽管不确定性可能在接下来的几个季度内造成波动，但在未来十年内，亚马逊的股票对买入并持有的投资者来说看起来是个赢家。</p>

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亚马逊

XDAT

<p>亚马逊的股票表现不佳，在过去五年中仅上涨了 34%，而标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 78%。对人工智能基础设施的重投资以及潜在的负现金流引发了市场的怀疑。尽管如此，亚马逊网络服务（AWS）的需求强劲，年收入增长达到 24%。首席执行官安迪·贾西预计，AWS 在未来十年内可能达到 6000 亿美元的收入。虽然短期内存在不确定性，但长期投资者可能会因亚马逊在云计算和电子商务领域的增长潜力而对其股票产生兴趣</p>

<p>Did you know that <strong>Amazon</strong>( AMZN +2.33%) stock is up only 34% cumulatively over the last five years? That's right, the technology giant has severely underperformed the stock market indexes, such as the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, which has produced a 78% total return over the same time frame.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你知道 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN +2.33%）的股票在过去五年中仅累计上涨了 34% 吗？没错，这家科技巨头的表现严重低于股市指数，例如 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong>，在同一时间段内产生了 78% 的总回报。</p>
</div><p>Amazon's stock is sputtering because of Wall Street's skepticism about its heavy investments in artificial intelligence ( AI) infrastructure and what that will mean for future cash flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊的股票表现不佳，原因在于华尔街对其在人工智能（AI）基础设施上的大量投资持怀疑态度，以及这将对未来现金流产生的影响。</p>
</div><p>At a generational crossroads, is Amazon stock a good buy for long-term investors? Or is it a value trap whose business is over the hill?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一个世代交替的关键时刻，亚马逊的股票对长期投资者来说是个好买入吗？还是一个价值陷阱，其业务已经过时？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NjE5NDQvY2xvdWQuanBnJnc9Mzg0MA" alt="A visualization of cloud file storage. " original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F861944%2Fcloud.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Uncertain return on investment</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资回报的不确定性</h2>
</div><p>As one of the bedrocks of cloud computing infrastructure, Amazon Web Services (AWS) is facing a significant surge in customer demand, including from Anthropic, which is buying billions of dollars' worth of compute annually from the company. AWS revenue growth accelerated to 24% year over year last quarter, despite generating around $129 billion in sales last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为云计算基础设施的基石之一，亚马逊网络服务（AWS）正面临客户需求的显著激增，包括来自 Anthropic 的需求，该公司每年从亚马逊购买价值数十亿美元的计算服务。尽管去年产生了约 1290 亿美元的销售额，AWS 的收入增长在上个季度加速至同比 24%。</p>
</div><p>Amazon CEO Andy Jassy believes AWS can grow to $600 billion in revenue over the next decade due to this surge in AI demand. To invest in this vision, the company is committing substantial capital to build data centers for customers. This year, it is expected to spend $200 billion on capital expenditures, mostly related to AI. With $140 billion in operating cash flow last year, Amazon is likely to have negative free cash flow in 2026 and perhaps for many years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊首席执行官安迪·贾西（Andy Jassy）相信，AWS 在未来十年内可以增长到 6000 亿美元的收入，得益于这一人工智能需求的激增。为了实现这一愿景，公司正在投入大量资金建设客户数据中心。今年，预计将花费 2000 亿美元用于资本支出，主要与人工智能相关。去年，亚马逊的运营现金流为 1400 亿美元，预计在 2026 年可能会出现负自由现金流，并可能持续多年。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FNWk4ucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Amazon Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FAMZN.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: AMZN</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: AMZN</h2>
</div><p>Amazon</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(2.33%) $4.78</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(2.33%) $4.78</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$210.15</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$210.15</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$2.3T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$2.3 万亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$209.51 - $212.80</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$209.51 - $212.80</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$161.38 - $258.60</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$161.38 - $258.60</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>2.6M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>260 万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>49M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4900 万</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>50.29%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>50.29%</p>
</div><p>This has required the company to add debt to its balance sheet, with around $69 billion raised in late 2025 and early 2026 alone. Wall Street is nervous about adding debt to the balance sheet in an uncertain sector such as AI. If demand doesn't materialize as Amazon expects, it could be left with idle data centers funded by debt. In the short run, this could crush Amazon's earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得公司不得不在资产负债表上增加债务，仅在 2025 年底和 2026 年初就筹集了约 690 亿美元。华尔街对在不确定的人工智能领域增加债务感到紧张。如果需求没有如亚马逊预期的那样实现，可能会留下由债务资助的闲置数据中心。在短期内，这可能会压垮亚马逊的收益。</p>
</div><h2>Time to buy Amazon stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在是买入亚马逊股票的时候吗？</p>
</div><p>Despite this short-term uncertainty and negative cash flow, Amazon stock may be cheap for investors with a time horizon of a decade or longer. There is a massive tailwind for cloud computing that AWS can take advantage of, even if there are fits and starts along the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管短期内存在不确定性和负现金流，但对于时间跨度在十年或更长的投资者来说，亚马逊的股票可能是便宜的。云计算有巨大的顺风，AWS 可以利用这一点，即使在过程中会有波动。</p>
</div><p>Amazon's e-commerce and retail operations are doing just fine as well, posting record profit margins in 2025. Combined, Amazon as a whole generated $85 billion in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) last year. If AWS can grow to even close to what Jassy expects by 2036 and e-commerce keeps producing steady growth, Amazon's business may eclipse $1.5 trillion in sales, which could mean hundreds of billions in earnings. Even with a market cap of $2.2 trillion, that would be a mighty cheap forward price-to-earnings ratio ( P/E).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊的电子商务和零售业务也表现良好，2025 年创下了创纪录的利润率。整体而言，亚马逊去年产生了 850 亿美元的 息税前利润（EBIT）。如果 AWS 能够在 2036 年前接近贾西的预期增长，而电子商务继续保持稳定增长，亚马逊的业务可能会超过 1.5 万亿美元的销售额，这可能意味着数百亿美元的收益。即使市值为 2.2 万亿美元，这也将是一个非常便宜的前瞻市盈率（P/E）。</p>
</div><p>Take the long view. Uncertainties may create volatility in the next few quarters. However, over the next decade, Amazon stock looks like a winner for buy-and-hold investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>放眼长远。尽管不确定性可能在接下来的几个季度内造成波动，但在未来十年内，亚马逊的股票对买入并持有的投资者来说看起来是个赢家。</p>
</div>

Amazon Stock at a Crossroads: Generational Buy or Massive Value Trap?

- 亚马逊股票在过去五年累计上涨仅 34%。
- 市场对其 AI 基础设施投资的回报持怀疑态度。
- 长期来看，亚马逊股票可能对长期投资者具有吸引力。

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亚马逊股票正处于关键时刻：是长期投资的良机还是巨大的价值陷阱？