<p>壳牌首席执行官警告称，随着中东危机的加剧，欧洲可能在下个月面临燃料短缺。</p>
<p>壳牌首席执行官 Wael Sawan 表示，全球石油和天然气供应紧缩已经迫使亚洲部分地区减少能源消费，而这种 “涟漪效应” 威胁在几天内向西扩散。</p>
<p>他警告称，这意味着欧洲各国政府可能需要限制能源需求——这是自 2022 年能源危机以来未曾采取的措施——以防止短缺。</p>
<p>由于伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡，全球约五分之一的石油和液化天然气（LNG）供应被困在海湾地区。</p>
<p>军事消息人士周二表示，英国正在领导重新开放这一重要贸易要道的努力，规划者考虑从租用的民用 “母船” 上部署扫雷无人机。</p>
<p>与此同时，唐纳德·特朗普正在准备派遣伞兵进行可能的地面入侵，目标是伊朗沿海的关键岛屿。然而，美国总统周二也坚称与德黑兰的和平谈判正在进行。</p>
<p>消息人士告诉《每日电讯报》，副总统 JD Vance 首次被安排作为谈判代表，因为伊朗拒绝与特朗普的中东特使进行对话。</p>
<p>海湾消息人士表示，伊朗方面不会与 Steve Witkoff 和 Jared Kushner 会面，指责他们在战争开始前的核谈判中 “背叛”。</p>
<p>随着冲突进入第四周，国际能源署呼吁各国通过鼓励远程办公、降低道路限速和增加公共交通使用来减少石油和天然气消费。</p>
<p>在亚洲，依赖中东石油和天然气的国家已经实施了四天工作制，呼吁人们减少空调使用，并暂停官员的海外出差。</p>
<p>在德克萨斯州休斯顿的一次行业会议上，Sawan 表示，欧洲各国政府可能很快需要采取类似措施。</p>
<p>“这是一种涟漪效应，” 他说。“我们看到南亚首先受到冲击，然后是东南亚、东北亚，接着是欧洲，尤其是进入四月时。”</p>
<p>“因此，我们正在努力与各国政府合作，提醒他们可能需要采取的措施——包括需求侧措施、储存方面的需求、采购库存等。”</p>
<p>银行家们表示，持续的能源冲击可能使英国陷入衰退，而 RAC 基金会则表示，汽油价格上涨已经使司机在加油时多花费了数亿英镑。</p>
<p>政府周二晚上表示，官员们正在监测局势，但英国拥有 “多样化和有韧性的能源供应”。</p>
<p>能源行业消息人士还警告称，潜在的燃料短缺是一个不太可能的 “最坏情况”，只有在美以与伊朗的战争持续到夏季时才会发生。</p>
<p>冲突使市场陷入恐慌，过去四周内石油和天然气价格分别上涨了 40% 和 60%。</p>
<p>伊朗威胁袭击通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只，使得全球五分之一的石油和 LNG 供应被困在海湾，情况更加恶化。</p>
<p>在亚洲，这引发了对替代品的争夺——中国、日本和韩国等国与欧洲争夺来自美国的货物，后者是全球最大的石油和 LNG 出口国。</p>
<p>Panmure Liberum 的石油和天然气分析师 Ashley Kelty 表示：“现在有很多美国货物被重新定向到亚洲，因为他们支付的价格更高。”</p>
<h2>家庭担忧即将到来的衰退</h2>
<p>一位英国能源行业高级消息人士承认，壳牌首席执行官所描述的情况是 “最坏情况之一，但仍然绝对可能”。</p>
<p>该消息人士补充道：“目前，人们对供应的物理安全性担忧较少，更关注价格。”</p>
<p>“请记住，即使在上一次能源危机最严重的时候，当我们失去大量来自欧洲的天然气时，我们仍然设法确保了供应的安全。”</p>
<p>但他们补充道：“显然有一个临界点——很难确切知道是什么时候，也许是六月份或七月份——价格会大幅上涨，问题是欧洲是否真的愿意支付。”</p>
<p>到那时，他们表示，价格可能会高到家庭和企业开始自我限制的程度。</p>
<p>部长们根据《能源法》在紧急情况下有权控制汽油供应。这些权力在 2000 年曾被用于罢工的货运司机封锁燃料仓库时。</p>
<p>然而，前政府能源官员 Adam Bell 在咨询公司 Stonehaven 表示，他认为英国尚未接近这种情况。</p>
<p>相反，他预计部长们会采取 “温和” 的需求限制措施，例如限制驾驶速度或居家办公指导，而不是考虑任何更严格的措施。</p>
<p>他补充道：“如果你要在短期内采取任何措施，那就是这些。”</p>
<p>为了应对能源紧缩，欧盟委员会已经敦促成员国降低即将到来的冬季的天然气储存目标。</p>
<p>周二，华尔街银行家表示，如果能源价格冲击持续，英国将面临衰退。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利表示，如果能源价格未能回落，英格兰银行可能会加息，这可能导致到 2026 年底经济衰退。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利首席英国经济学家 Bruna Skarica 表示，如果未来几个月能源价格保持在近期高位且借贷成本上升，英国将面临 “明显的英国衰退”。</p>
<p>Panmure Liberum 首席经济学家 Simon French 表示，今年最后六个月的衰退现在 “是一个真实的可能性”。</p>
<p>英国央行首席经济学家 Huw Pill 也警告称，“货币政策委员会（MPC）能做的事情是有限的”，无法保护家庭免受能源价格冲击。</p>
<p>根据食品分销研究所的说法，如果石油冲击持续，中东局势的后果可能导致食品通胀在 2026 年 6 月达到 8%。</p>
<p>这比目前的 3.6% 的通胀率高出两倍多。</p>

SHEL

SHEL.WI

英国石油

SHEH

<p>根据壳牌首席执行官 Wael Sawan 的说法，由于中东危机的持续，欧洲最早可能在下个月面临燃料短缺的风险。他警告称，全球石油和天然气供应紧缩正在影响亚洲的能源消费，并可能很快影响欧洲。各国政府可能需要采取需求侧措施以防止短缺，类似于 2022 年能源危机期间采取的行动。伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的威胁加剧了这一局势，该地区困住了全球大量的石油和液化天然气供应。价格上涨和潜在的经济衰退担忧也是英国家庭和企业面临的关注问题</p>

<p>Europe risks fuel shortages as soon as next month as the fallout from the Middle East crisis deepens, the boss of Shell has warned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>壳牌首席执行官警告称，随着中东危机的加剧，欧洲可能在下个月面临燃料短缺。</p>
</div><p>Wael Sawan, the company’s chief executive, said the global oil and gas supply squeeze had already forced parts of Asia to cut energy consumption and that the “ripple effect” threatens to spread west within days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>壳牌首席执行官 Wael Sawan 表示，全球石油和天然气供应紧缩已经迫使亚洲部分地区减少能源消费，而这种 “涟漪效应” 威胁在几天内向西扩散。</p>
</div><p>He warned this meant European governments may need to curb energy demand – a step not taken since the 2022 energy crisis – to prevent shortages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他警告称，这意味着欧洲各国政府可能需要限制能源需求——这是自 2022 年能源危机以来未曾采取的措施——以防止短缺。</p>
</div><p>Around one fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are trapped in the Gulf following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡，全球约五分之一的石油和液化天然气（LNG）供应被困在海湾地区。</p>
</div><p>Military sources said on Tuesday that Britain was leading efforts to reopen the vital trade choke point, with planners considering deploying mine-hunting drones from chartered civilian “motherships”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>军事消息人士周二表示，英国正在领导重新开放这一重要贸易要道的努力，规划者考虑从租用的民用 “母船” 上部署扫雷无人机。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Donald Trump is preparing to send in paratroopers for a possible ground invasion of key islands along the Iranian coast. Yet, the US president also insisted on Tuesday that peace talks with Tehran were taking place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，唐纳德·特朗普正在准备派遣伞兵进行可能的地面入侵，目标是伊朗沿海的关键岛屿。然而，美国总统周二也坚称与德黑兰的和平谈判正在进行。</p>
</div><p>JD Vance, the vice-president, is being lined up as a negotiator for the first time as Iran is refusing to talk with Mr Trump’s Middle East envoys, sources told The Telegraph.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消息人士告诉《每日电讯报》，副总统 JD Vance 首次被安排作为谈判代表，因为伊朗拒绝与特朗普的中东特使进行对话。</p>
</div><p>Gulf sources said that the Iranians would not meet Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, accusing them of “backstabbing” at previous nuclear talks before the war started.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>海湾消息人士表示，伊朗方面不会与 Steve Witkoff 和 Jared Kushner 会面，指责他们在战争开始前的核谈判中 “背叛”。</p>
</div><p>With the conflict now in its fourth week, the International Energy Agency has called on countries to reduce oil and gas consumption by encouraging more remote working, lower road speed limits, and greater use of public transport.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着冲突进入第四周，国际能源署呼吁各国通过鼓励远程办公、降低道路限速和增加公共交通使用来减少石油和天然气消费。</p>
</div><p>In Asia, where countries are heavily reliant on oil and gas from the Middle East, governments have already imposed four-day working weeks, urged people to use less air conditioning and suspended overseas trips for bureaucrats.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在亚洲，依赖中东石油和天然气的国家已经实施了四天工作制，呼吁人们减少空调使用，并暂停官员的海外出差。</p>
</div><p>Speaking at an industry conference in Houston, Texas, Mr Sawan said European governments may soon need to take similar measures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在德克萨斯州休斯顿的一次行业会议上，Sawan 表示，欧洲各国政府可能很快需要采取类似措施。</p>
</div><p>“It is a ripple effect,” he said. “We see south Asia first to get that brunt, that moves to south-east Asia, north-east Asia and then more so into Europe as we get into April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这是一种涟漪效应，” 他说。“我们看到南亚首先受到冲击，然后是东南亚、东北亚，接着是欧洲，尤其是进入四月时。”</p>
</div><p>“So we are trying to work with governments to alert them to the levers they may need to pull – including demand‑side measures, what they need to do around storage, what they need to do around purchasing stock and so on and so forth.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“因此，我们正在努力与各国政府合作，提醒他们可能需要采取的措施——包括需求侧措施、储存方面的需求、采购库存等。”</p>
</div><p>Bankers have said a prolonged energy shock could plunge Britain into a recession, while the RAC Foundation said rising petrol prices had already cost drivers hundreds of millions of pounds extra at the pumps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银行家们表示，持续的能源冲击可能使英国陷入衰退，而 RAC 基金会则表示，汽油价格上涨已经使司机在加油时多花费了数亿英镑。</p>
</div><p>The Government said on Tuesday night officials were monitoring the situation but that the UK had a “diverse and resilient energy supply”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府周二晚上表示，官员们正在监测局势，但英国拥有 “多样化和有韧性的能源供应”。</p>
</div><p>Energy industry sources also cautioned that potential fuel shortages were an unlikely “worst-case scenario” that would only unfold if the US-Israeli war with Iran dragged on into the summer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源行业消息人士还警告称，潜在的燃料短缺是一个不太可能的 “最坏情况”，只有在美以与伊朗的战争持续到夏季时才会发生。</p>
</div><p>Markets have been sent into a panic by the conflict, driving up the price of oil and gas by 40pc and 60pc in the past four weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>冲突使市场陷入恐慌，过去四周内石油和天然气价格分别上涨了 40% 和 60%。</p>
</div><p>The situation has been worsened by Iranian threats to strike ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively trapping one fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supplies in the Gulf.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗威胁袭击通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只，使得全球五分之一的石油和 LNG 供应被困在海湾，情况更加恶化。</p>
</div><p>In Asia, that has triggered a scramble for alternatives – putting countries such as China, Japan and South Korea in competition with Europe for shipments from America, the world’s largest oil and LNG exporter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在亚洲，这引发了对替代品的争夺——中国、日本和韩国等国与欧洲争夺来自美国的货物，后者是全球最大的石油和 LNG 出口国。</p>
</div><p>Ashley Kelty, an oil and gas analyst at Panmure Liberum, said: “There are lots of American cargoes now being redirected to Asia because they are paying more.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Panmure Liberum 的石油和天然气分析师 Ashley Kelty 表示：“现在有很多美国货物被重新定向到亚洲，因为他们支付的价格更高。”</p>
</div><h2>Households fear looming recession</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>家庭担忧即将到来的衰退</h2>
</div><p>A senior UK energy industry source acknowledged that the situation described by Shell’s chief executive was “one of the worst-case scenarios but still absolutely possible”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一位英国能源行业高级消息人士承认，壳牌首席执行官所描述的情况是 “最坏情况之一，但仍然绝对可能”。</p>
</div><p>The source added: “At the moment, people are less worried about the physical security of supply and more about prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该消息人士补充道：“目前，人们对供应的物理安全性担忧较少，更关注价格。”</p>
</div><p>“Remember, even at the height of the last energy crisis, when we lost huge gas volumes from Europe, we still managed to ensure security of supply.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“请记住，即使在上一次能源危机最严重的时候，当我们失去大量来自欧洲的天然气时，我们仍然设法确保了供应的安全。”</p>
</div><p>But they added: “Clearly there is a point – and it is hard to know exactly when, perhaps June or July – where you get substantial rises in prices and the question becomes whether Europe is actually willing to pay to get it.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但他们补充道：“显然有一个临界点——很难确切知道是什么时候，也许是六月份或七月份——价格会大幅上涨，问题是欧洲是否真的愿意支付。”</p>
</div><p>At that point, they said, prices may be so high that households and businesses start to self-ration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到那时，他们表示，价格可能会高到家庭和企业开始自我限制的程度。</p>
</div><p>Ministers have powers under the Energy Act to take control of petrol supplies during emergencies. Those powers were previously used in 2000 when striking hauliers blockaded fuel depots.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>部长们根据《能源法》在紧急情况下有权控制汽油供应。这些权力在 2000 年曾被用于罢工的货运司机封锁燃料仓库时。</p>
</div><p>However, Adam Bell, a former government energy official at consultancy Stonehaven, said he did not think Britain was nearing that situation yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，前政府能源官员 Adam Bell 在咨询公司 Stonehaven 表示，他认为英国尚未接近这种情况。</p>
</div><p>Instead, he expects ministers to reach for “softer” demand curbs such as driving speed restrictions or home-working guidance before contemplating any tougher measures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，他预计部长们会采取 “温和” 的需求限制措施，例如限制驾驶速度或居家办公指导，而不是考虑任何更严格的措施。</p>
</div><p>He added: “If you are going to do anything in the short term, it will be that.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充道：“如果你要在短期内采取任何措施，那就是这些。”</p>
</div><p>To combat the energy squeeze, the European Commission has already urged member states to reduce gas storage targets for the coming winter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了应对能源紧缩，欧盟委员会已经敦促成员国降低即将到来的冬季的天然气储存目标。</p>
</div><p>Separately on Tuesday, Wall Street bankers said the UK was heading for a recession if the energy price shock continues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二，华尔街银行家表示，如果能源价格冲击持续，英国将面临衰退。</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley said the Bank of England could raise interest rates if energy prices fail to come down, which would be likely to cause an economic downturn by the end of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利表示，如果能源价格未能回落，英格兰银行可能会加息，这可能导致到 2026 年底经济衰退。</p>
</div><p>Bruna Skarica, the chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley, said Britain would face “a pronounced UK recession at the turn of the year” if energy prices stay at recent highs in the coming months and borrowing costs rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利首席英国经济学家 Bruna Skarica 表示，如果未来几个月能源价格保持在近期高位且借贷成本上升，英国将面临 “明显的英国衰退”。</p>
</div><p>Simon French, the chief economist at Panmure Liberum, said a recession in the final six months of the year was now “a real possibility”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Panmure Liberum 首席经济学家 Simon French 表示，今年最后六个月的衰退现在 “是一个真实的可能性”。</p>
</div><p>Huw Pill, the chief economist at the Bank of England, also warned that “there are limits to what the MPC [monetary policy committee] can do” to protect households from the energy price shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英国央行首席经济学家 Huw Pill 也警告称，“货币政策委员会（MPC）能做的事情是有限的”，无法保护家庭免受能源价格冲击。</p>
</div><p>The fallout from the Middle East could also lead to food inflation hitting 8pc by June 2026 if the oil shock persists, according to the Institute of Grocery Distribution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据食品分销研究所的说法，如果石油冲击持续，中东局势的后果可能导致食品通胀在 2026 年 6 月达到 8%。</p>
</div><p>That is more than double the current rate of 3.6pc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这比目前的 3.6% 的通胀率高出两倍多。</p>
</div>

Shell 老板警告称，欧洲可能在几天内面临燃料短缺