<p>[纽约] 华尔街正在下调对美国经济今年的预测，提高了对通胀和失业率的预期，并增加了经济衰退的可能性，因为伊朗战争的影响开始显现。</p>
<p>高盛表示，由于油价飙升，未来 12 个月经济下滑的风险上升至 30%，并预测到 2026 年底失业率将从 2 月份的 4.4% 上升至 4.6%。几家公司表示，今年的通胀率将更接近 3% 而非 2%，这将侵蚀可支配收入并抑制招聘。</p>
<p>这与原本预计的 2026 年强劲增长的局面形成了鲜明对比，当时美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税冲击逐渐消退，减税刺激措施开始发挥作用。即使战斗很快结束，经济学家表示，已经造成的损害将使美国经济保持在狭窄的基础上，求职者和低收入消费者将继续面临困难。</p>
<p>“由于这场战争，经济的许多方面将变得更加疲软，” 牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家南希·范登·霍滕表示。</p>
<p>“影响非常明显，变化很快，” 范登·霍滕说。“你只需经过当地的加油站。”</p>
<p>特朗普的《一项美丽的法案》所带来的退税帮助缓解了冲击。但预测者开始预计，退税的增加——支撑 2026 年消费者支出乐观预测的关键因素——将被更高的能源成本有效抵消。</p>
<p>根据美国汽车协会的数据，本月汽油价格已上涨超过 30%，达到每加仑约 4 美元，标志着自 2005 年卡特里娜飓风导致墨 Gulf Coast 石油生产中断以来的最大涨幅。</p>
<p>与此同时，关于退税的早期数据未能达到预期。在 3 月 23 日的报告中，摩根士丹利经济学家估计，退税的跟踪数据比去年高出 12%，低于他们预期的 15% 至 25% 的增长。该行下调了对消费者支出的预测，预计 2026 年将增长 1.7%，而不是 2%。</p>
<p>“油价冲击基本上抵消了我们所依赖的那一波增长，” 摩根士丹利的阿鲁尼玛·辛哈表示。</p>
<p>这使得美国在 2026 年的增长轨迹大约为 2%，这在很大程度上得益于数据中心的持续投资，这些投资被认为相对不受昂贵进口能源的影响，因为美国拥有丰富的廉价天然气。</p>
<p>但这使得经济依赖于对人工智能的持续投资者乐观情绪，以及高收入者的相关支出，这些支出得益于不断增长的投资组合，帮助在 2025 年尽管就业增长几乎为零的情况下保持扩张。</p>
<p>尽管美国正在通过外交努力推动结束与伊朗的战争，油价有所回落，但布伦特原油仍维持在每桶约 100 美元。即使双方能够尽快达成结束敌对行动的协议，预测者警告称，霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输恢复需要时间。该地区的石油基础设施损坏，加上各国在冲突后重建库存的全球需求增加，也将维持高于战争前的油价。</p>
<p>美国消费者在购买汽油或机票时已经可以看到影响。但战争造成的日益严重的肥料短缺也将推动食品价格在年内上涨。柴油燃料价格的上涨速度甚至超过了普通汽油，这将增加运输成本，最终可能推动一系列已经因关税而上涨的消费品价格。</p>
<p>“每个人都非常担心事情需要多长时间才能解决，” BMO 资本市场的高级经济学家詹妮弗·李表示。“即使今天解决了，也需要一些生产。事情恢复需要很长时间。”</p>
<p>许多经济学家认为，支出减少将转化为招聘减少，这意味着在 2025 年经历了前所未有的低就业增长后，2026 年将再次出现微薄的就业增长。</p>
<h2>消费者影响</h2>
<p>包括花旗集团在内的几家华尔街公司预测今年失业率将上升。这是许多人坚持认为美国联邦储备将在 2026 年某个时候恢复降息的原因之一，尽管投资者最近几天急于押注加息。</p>
<p>就业增长放缓也可能反过来影响消费者支出的前景，花旗经济学家吉塞拉·杨表示。</p>
<p>“如果就业增长继续进一步放缓——目前平均几乎为零——这可能会对消费者造成另一个逆风，” 杨表示，并补充说花旗预计今年工资增长将再次放缓。</p>
<p>早期迹象显示的影响比迅速恶化的前景更为复杂。摩根大通和美国银行的经济学家表示，信用卡消费的每周内部数据在 3 月中旬显示几乎没有放缓的迹象，这表明消费者在支付更多油费的情况下尚未开始缩减支出。</p>
<p>密歇根大学将于周五发布其每月消费者信心调查的最终结果。预测者预计根据彭博社调查的中位数估计，3 月份将显示下降，但不会降至 11 月的水平，后者是三年多以来的最低读数。</p>
<p>“冲突的前两周，你并没有看到消费者支出方面的明显变化，” 摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利表示。但 “我确实认为这会稍微削弱扩张的动力。” BLOOMBERG</p>

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<p>华尔街正在下调对美国经济的预测，将衰退风险提高至 30%，原因是伊朗战争对油价的影响。高盛预测到 2026 年失业率将上升至 4.6%，而通胀预计将达到 3%。税收退款低于预期，影响了消费者支出的增长。本月油价上涨超过 30%，对消费者和企业的成本产生了影响。经济学家警告称，即使冲突结束，经济复苏也将缓慢，潜在的就业增长仍然疲弱，商品价格可能会保持高位</p>

<p>[NEW YORK] Wall Street is cutting its forecasts for the US economy this year, boosting its projections for inflation and unemployment and nudging up the odds of a recession as the impact of the Iran war starts to come into view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[纽约] 华尔街正在下调对美国经济今年的预测，提高了对通胀和失业率的预期，并增加了经济衰退的可能性，因为伊朗战争的影响开始显现。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs says the risk of a downturn over the next 12 months has risen to 30 per cent as a result of the surge in oil prices, and predicts the jobless rate will climb to 4.6 per cent by the end of 2026 from 4.4 per cent in February. Several firms say inflation will now be closer to 3 per cent this year than 2 per cent, eating into disposable incomes and keeping a lid on hiring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛表示，由于油价飙升，未来 12 个月经济下滑的风险上升至 30%，并预测到 2026 年底失业率将从 2 月份的 4.4% 上升至 4.6%。几家公司表示，今年的通胀率将更接近 3% 而非 2%，这将侵蚀可支配收入并抑制招聘。</p>
</div><p>That’s a shift from what was supposed to be a strong year in 2026 as the shock of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs faded into the background and stimulus from tax cuts kicked in. Even if the fighting ends soon, economists say the damage already done will keep the US economy on a narrow footing, with job seekers and lower-income consumers alike continuing to struggle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这与原本预计的 2026 年强劲增长的局面形成了鲜明对比，当时美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税冲击逐渐消退，减税刺激措施开始发挥作用。即使战斗很快结束，经济学家表示，已经造成的损害将使美国经济保持在狭窄的基础上，求职者和低收入消费者将继续面临困难。</p>
</div><p>“Lots of elements of the economy are going to be weaker because of this war,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, the lead US economist at Oxford Economics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“由于这场战争，经济的许多方面将变得更加疲软，” 牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家南希·范登·霍滕表示。</p>
</div><p>“The impact is very visible very quickly,” Vanden Houten said. “You just have to drive by your local gas station.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“影响非常明显，变化很快，” 范登·霍滕说。“你只需经过当地的加油站。”</p>
</div><p>Tax refunds, amped up by Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, have helped blunt the blow. But forecasters are starting to expect the increase in refunds, a key element underpinning sunny forecasts for consumer spending in 2026, will be effectively neutralised by higher energy costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普的《一项美丽的法案》所带来的退税帮助缓解了冲击。但预测者开始预计，退税的增加——支撑 2026 年消费者支出乐观预测的关键因素——将被更高的能源成本有效抵消。</p>
</div><p>The price of petrol has surged more than 30 per cent so far this month to about US$4 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association, marking the biggest increase since Hurricane Katrina knocked out Gulf Coast oil production in 2005.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据美国汽车协会的数据，本月汽油价格已上涨超过 30%，达到每加仑约 4 美元，标志着自 2005 年卡特里娜飓风导致墨 Gulf Coast 石油生产中断以来的最大涨幅。</p>
</div><p>Early data on tax refunds, meanwhile, are coming up short of expectations. In a Mar 23 report, Morgan Stanley economists estimated refunds are tracking 12 per cent higher than last year, below the 15 to 25 per cent increase they had anticipated. The bank downgraded its forecast for consumer spending, projecting a 1.7 per cent increase in 2026 instead of 2 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，关于退税的早期数据未能达到预期。在 3 月 23 日的报告中，摩根士丹利经济学家估计，退税的跟踪数据比去年高出 12%，低于他们预期的 15% 至 25% 的增长。该行下调了对消费者支出的预测，预计 2026 年将增长 1.7%，而不是 2%。</p>
</div><p>“The oil shock essentially washes out that bump that we were counting on,” Morgan Stanley’s Arunima Sinha said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“油价冲击基本上抵消了我们所依赖的那一波增长，” 摩根士丹利的阿鲁尼玛·辛哈表示。</p>
</div><p>That leaves the US on track for growth of around 2 per cent in 2026 by most accounts, thanks in large part to ongoing investments in data centres that is seen as relatively insulated from costly imported energy thanks to America’s abundance of cheap natural gas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得美国在 2026 年的增长轨迹大约为 2%，这在很大程度上得益于数据中心的持续投资，这些投资被认为相对不受昂贵进口能源的影响，因为美国拥有丰富的廉价天然气。</p>
</div><p>But it keeps the economy dependent on continued investor optimism towards artificial intelligence, and the associated spending by top earners, buoyed by growing portfolios that helped keep the expansion going in 2025 despite near-zero job growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这使得经济依赖于对人工智能的持续投资者乐观情绪，以及高收入者的相关支出，这些支出得益于不断增长的投资组合，帮助在 2025 年尽管就业增长几乎为零的情况下保持扩张。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices have eased somewhat amid a diplomatic push by the US to end the war with Iran, though Brent crude remains around US$100 a barrel. Even if the two sides can come to an agreement to end hostilities soon, forecasters caution it will take time for oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to ramp up. Damage to oil infrastructure in the region, combined with increased global demand as countries rebuild stockpiles after the conflict, will also sustain higher oil prices than before the war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美国正在通过外交努力推动结束与伊朗的战争，油价有所回落，但布伦特原油仍维持在每桶约 100 美元。即使双方能够尽快达成结束敌对行动的协议，预测者警告称，霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输恢复需要时间。该地区的石油基础设施损坏，加上各国在冲突后重建库存的全球需求增加，也将维持高于战争前的油价。</p>
</div><p>American consumers can already see the impact when buying petrol or plane tickets. But a growing fertiliser shortage created by the war is also set to push food prices up as the year goes on. Higher prices for diesel fuel, which have risen even faster than regular gas, will add to shipping costs, which could also eventually boost a whole range of prices for consumer goods that were already boosted by tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国消费者在购买汽油或机票时已经可以看到影响。但战争造成的日益严重的肥料短缺也将推动食品价格在年内上涨。柴油燃料价格的上涨速度甚至超过了普通汽油，这将增加运输成本，最终可能推动一系列已经因关税而上涨的消费品价格。</p>
</div><p>“Everyone’s very concerned about how long it’s going to take before things are settled,” said Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. “Even if it does get settled today, it’s going to take some production. It’s going to take a long time to have things restart.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“每个人都非常担心事情需要多长时间才能解决，” BMO 资本市场的高级经济学家詹妮弗·李表示。“即使今天解决了，也需要一些生产。事情恢复需要很长时间。”</p>
</div><p>Many economists see less spending translating to less hiring, which means another year of meagre gains for employment after 2025 registered unprecedented low job growth so far into an economic expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多经济学家认为，支出减少将转化为招聘减少，这意味着在 2025 年经历了前所未有的低就业增长后，2026 年将再次出现微薄的就业增长。</p>
</div><h2>Consumer impact</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>消费者影响</h2>
</div><p>Several Wall Street firms, including Citigroup, are forecasting a rise in the unemployment rate this year. That’s one reason why many are sticking with their calls that the US Federal Reserve will resume interest-rate cuts at some point in 2026, even as investors have rushed in recent days to bet on rate hikes instead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>包括花旗集团在内的几家华尔街公司预测今年失业率将上升。这是许多人坚持认为美国联邦储备将在 2026 年某个时候恢复降息的原因之一，尽管投资者最近几天急于押注加息。</p>
</div><p>Slower job growth also could feed back into the outlook for consumer spending, said Gisela Young, an economist at Citi.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就业增长放缓也可能反过来影响消费者支出的前景，花旗经济学家吉塞拉·杨表示。</p>
</div><p>“To the extent that job growth continues to slow further – it’s already on average sort of a zero – that could be another headwind to the consumer,” Young said, adding that Citi expects wage growth to step down again this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果就业增长继续进一步放缓——目前平均几乎为零——这可能会对消费者造成另一个逆风，” 杨表示，并补充说花旗预计今年工资增长将再次放缓。</p>
</div><p>Early signs of the impact are more mixed than the quickly souring outlook would suggest. Economists at JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America say weekly internal data on credit-card spending show little evidence of a slowdown as at mid-March, suggesting consumers have yet to start pulling back even as they pay more at the pump.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>早期迹象显示的影响比迅速恶化的前景更为复杂。摩根大通和美国银行的经济学家表示，信用卡消费的每周内部数据在 3 月中旬显示几乎没有放缓的迹象，这表明消费者在支付更多油费的情况下尚未开始缩减支出。</p>
</div><p>The University of Michigan will release final results from its monthly survey of consumer sentiment on Friday. Forecasters expect it to show a decline in March, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey, though not to the level seen in November, which marked the lowest reading in more than three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>密歇根大学将于周五发布其每月消费者信心调查的最终结果。预测者预计根据彭博社调查的中位数估计，3 月份将显示下降，但不会降至 11 月的水平，后者是三年多以来的最低读数。</p>
</div><p>“The first two weeks of the conflict, you are not seeing anything really pronounced in terms of changes in consumer spending,” said Michael Feroli, the chief US economist at JPMorgan. But “I do think this takes a little bit of pep out of the expansion.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“冲突的前两周，你并没有看到消费者支出方面的明显变化，” 摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利表示。但 “我确实认为这会稍微削弱扩张的动力。” BLOOMBERG</p>
</div>

US recession risks begin to rise as war dims economic outlook

- 华尔街下调美国经济预测，失业率和通胀预期上升。  
- 高盛预计未来 12 个月经济下滑风险升至 30%。  
- 预测者警告油价高涨将影响消费者支出及招聘。

随着战争使经济前景黯淡，美国经济衰退的风险开始上升