<ul><li>投资者静观其变，伊朗称将审议美国提议</li></ul><ul><li>股市方向不明，美元守住涨幅</li></ul><ul><li>市场仍担心能源价格冲击</li></ul><p>作者 Ankur Banerjee</p><p>新加坡，3 月 26 日（路透社）- 亚洲股市在方向不明的情况下挣扎，而美元周四持坚，因为投资者在中东紧张局势下谨慎行事。伊朗表示将权衡美国结束海湾冲突的提议。</p><p>不断升级的战争冲击了全球市场，导致油价飙升，重新点燃通胀担忧，并扰乱了全球利率预期。</p><p>亚洲早盘交易喜忧参半，日本日经指数（.N225）上涨 0.6%，而韩国股市（.KS11）下跌 1.2%。MSCI 除日本以外亚太地区股票指数（.MIAPJ0000PUS）小幅下跌 0.23%，本月有望下跌 8.7%，为 2022 年 10 月以来最大月度跌幅。</p><p>美元持稳于近期高位附近，本月有望上涨 2%，巩固了其作为市场首选避险资产的地位。</p><p>伊朗的最新表态表明，德黑兰方面若能满足其要求，则愿意就结束战争进行谈判。美国向伊朗发送了一项 15 项条款的停火提议，该提议最初被伊朗官员驳回。</p><p>Pepperstone 研究主管 Chris Weston 表示：“虽然头条新闻显示出更具建设性的基调，但市场仍不确定应信任和采取哪些信号。”</p><p>“价格走势表明，即使达成谈判结果的可能性有所提高，市场参与者也预计会发生更多波折。”</p><p>始于二月下旬美以联合对伊朗的打击而引发的近一个月的战争，已有效关闭了霍尔木兹海峡，这是全球石油和液化天然气供应的五分之一的通道。</p><p>此次中断已将价格推高至每桶 100 美元以上。布伦特原油期货（LCOc1）报每桶 103.35 美元，日涨 1%，本月有望上涨 42%。</p><p>Allspring Global Investments 的高级投资组合经理兼多资产团队负责人 Matthias Scheiber 表示：“如果我们审视美国、以色列和德黑兰各自的诉求，将很难调和所有这些观点。”</p><p>“我们仍然认为，目前有理由看好结构性更高的能源价格。”</p><p>对能源价格飙升引发通胀后果的担忧，已促使交易员们消化掉今年美联储降息的可能性，从而推高了美元。对美国加息的押注曾一度获得关注，但随后已被削减。</p><p>欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德周三表示，如果中东战争在一段时间内推高该地区通胀，欧洲央行可能会考虑加息。</p><p>拉加德在法兰克福表示：“如果冲击导致通胀目标出现较大但不过于持久的超调，那么一些有针对性的政策调整可能是值得的。”</p><p>欧元（EUR=）小幅变动，报 1.1562 美元，而英镑（GBP=）报 1.3358 美元。日元（JPY=）徘徊在 159.43 兑美元，守住了交易员视为可能干预的 160 的关口。</p><p>在商品方面，黄金（XAU=）上涨 0.66%，报每盎司 4,537 美元，但本月大部分时间呈下跌趋势，预计将下跌 14%，这是自 2008 年 10 月以来最严重的月度跌幅。</p>

GDXY

2 倍做多金矿指数 ETF - Direxion

实物黄金股 ETF - ETFS

<ul>
<li>Investors sit tight as Iran says to review U.S. proposal</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>投资者静观其变，伊朗称将审议美国提议</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>Stocks struggle for direction, dollar hangs on to gains</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>股市方向不明，美元守住涨幅</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>Markets remain worried about energy price shocks</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>市场仍担心能源价格冲击</li>
</ul></div><p>By Ankur Banerjee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者 Ankur Banerjee</p></div><p>SINGAPORE, March 26 (Reuters) - Asian stocks struggled for direction while the dollar held firm on Thursday as investors treaded cautiously amid dizzying developments in the Middle East, where Iran said it would weigh a U.S. proposal to end the Gulf conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新加坡，3 月 26 日（路透社）- 亚洲股市在方向不明的情况下挣扎，而美元周四持坚，因为投资者在中东紧张局势下谨慎行事。伊朗表示将权衡美国结束海湾冲突的提议。</p></div><p>The widening war has jolted global markets, sending oil prices soaring, reigniting inflation fears and scrambling global rate expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不断升级的战争冲击了全球市场，导致油价飙升，重新点燃通胀担忧，并扰乱了全球利率预期。</p></div><p>It was a mixed picture in Asia in early trading with Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) up 0.6% while South Korean stocks (.KS11) were down 1.2%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged 0.23% lower, set for a 8.7% decline in the month, its biggest monthly drop since October 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚洲早盘交易喜忧参半，日本日经指数（.N225）上涨 0.6%，而韩国股市（.KS11）下跌 1.2%。MSCI 除日本以外亚太地区股票指数（.MIAPJ0000PUS）小幅下跌 0.23%，本月有望下跌 8.7%，为 2022 年 10 月以来最大月度跌幅。</p></div><p>The dollar held firm near recent highs and was on track for a 2% monthly gain, cementing its status as the markets’ preferred safe haven.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元持稳于近期高位附近，本月有望上涨 2%，巩固了其作为市场首选避险资产的地位。</p></div><p>The latest comments by Iran suggested some willingness by Tehran to negotiate an end to the war if its demands were met. The U.S. sent a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran that was originally brushed aside by Iranian officials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗的最新表态表明，德黑兰方面若能满足其要求，则愿意就结束战争进行谈判。美国向伊朗发送了一项 15 项条款的停火提议，该提议最初被伊朗官员驳回。</p></div><p>“While the headline flow points to a more constructive tone, markets remain unsure which signals to trust and act upon,” Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Pepperstone 研究主管 Chris Weston 表示：“虽然头条新闻显示出更具建设性的基调，但市场仍不确定应信任和采取哪些信号。”</p></div><p>“Price action suggests participants expect further twists and turns, even as the probability of a negotiated outcome edges higher.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“价格走势表明，即使达成谈判结果的可能性有所提高，市场参与者也预计会发生更多波折。”</p></div><p>The near month-long war triggered by joint U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran in late February has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>始于二月下旬美以联合对伊朗的打击而引发的近一个月的战争，已有效关闭了霍尔木兹海峡，这是全球石油和液化天然气供应的五分之一的通道。</p></div><p>The disruption has sent prices surging above $100 per barrel. Brent crude futures (LCOc1) were at $103.35 per barrel, up 1% on the day, and set for a 42% jump in the month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次中断已将价格推高至每桶 100 美元以上。布伦特原油期货（LCOc1）报每桶 103.35 美元，日涨 1%，本月有望上涨 42%。</p></div><p>“If you look at what the U.S. wants to achieve, what Israel wants to achieve, and what Tehran wants to achieve, it will be very hard to reconcile all these points,” said Matthias Scheiber, senior portfolio manager and the head of the Multi Asset team at Allspring Global Investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Allspring Global Investments 的高级投资组合经理兼多资产团队负责人 Matthias Scheiber 表示：“如果我们审视美国、以色列和德黑兰各自的诉求，将很难调和所有这些观点。”</p></div><p>“We still think there is a case to make for structurally higher energy prices for the moment.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们仍然认为，目前有理由看好结构性更高的能源价格。”</p></div><p>Fears of an inflationary aftershock from soaring energy prices have pushed traders to price out any chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, lifting the dollar. Bets on U.S. rate hikes briefly gained traction but have since been pared back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对能源价格飙升引发通胀后果的担忧，已促使交易员们消化掉今年美联储降息的可能性，从而推高了美元。对美国加息的押注曾一度获得关注，但随后已被削减。</p></div><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde opened the door on Wednesday to raising interest rates in the euro zone if war in the Middle East pushes up inflation in the region for some time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德周三表示，如果中东战争在一段时间内推高该地区通胀，欧洲央行可能会考虑加息。</p></div><p>“If the shock gives rise to a large though not-too-persistent overshoot of our target, some measured adjustment of policy could be warranted,” Lagarde said in Frankfurt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>拉加德在法兰克福表示：“如果冲击导致通胀目标出现较大但不过于持久的超调，那么一些有针对性的政策调整可能是值得的。”</p></div><p>The euro (EUR=) was little changed at $1.1562, while sterling (GBP=) bought $1.3358. The yen (JPY=) hovered at 159.43 per dollar, clinging to the closely watched 160 level that traders see as a potential trigger for intervention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧元（EUR=）小幅变动，报 1.1562 美元，而英镑（GBP=）报 1.3358 美元。日元（JPY=）徘徊在 159.43 兑美元，守住了交易员视为可能干预的 160 的关口。</p></div><p>In commodities, gold (XAU=) was 0.66% higher at $4,537 per ounce, but has largely sold off this month and is on course for a 14% drop in the month, its steepest fall since October 2008.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在商品方面，黄金（XAU=）上涨 0.66%，报每盎司 4,537 美元，但本月大部分时间呈下跌趋势，预计将下跌 14%，这是自 2008 年 10 月以来最严重的月度跌幅。</p></div>

全球市场 - 中东停火谈判成为焦点，股市岌岌可危