<p>伊朗的战争威胁到一个小但至关重要的复杂供应链部分，该供应链帮助生产全球的芯片，因为冲突限制了对世界上大量氦气的获取。</p>
<p>卡塔尔生产约三分之一的世界氦气，这种气体在半导体制造过程中至关重要，而此时芯片已成为人工智能背后的命脉。</p>
<p>但与伊朗的战争扰乱了卡塔尔的天然气生产以及与之共同提取的氦气，同时也使霍尔木兹海峡这一关键航运通道停滞不前。</p>
<p>圣地亚哥大学供应链管理教授西蒙·克鲁姆表示：“你面临两个问题——一个是你没有产出，另一个是物流和运输中断。”</p>
<p>他补充道：“这会加剧，因为供应链中的许多其他产品都经过中东，无论是霍尔木兹海峡还是苏伊士运河。”</p>
<p>与伊朗的冲突已经持续了超过三周，对能源市场造成了特别大的干扰。</p>
<p>在 2 月底美国和以色列对伊朗的首次打击后，德黑兰通过袭击中东各地的目标作出回应，包括天然气和石油基础设施。它还关闭了霍尔木兹海峡，这条水道连接波斯湾和印度洋，运输约五分之一的世界石油。</p>
<p>这导致油价一度飙升至每桶超过 100 美元。但尽管人们对石油和天然气市场的影响给予了很多关注，但同样的因素也在扰乱氦气的供应。</p>
<p>氦气是与天然气共同提取的。伊朗的袭击针对了卡塔尔的天然气厂，路透社报道该国的氦气出口在最近一系列袭击后预计将下降 14%。</p>
<p>它还面临霍尔木兹海峡的瓶颈，自 3 月初以来，该海峡实际上已关闭，伊朗誓言攻击任何试图通过该通道的船只。</p>
<p>氦气是半导体制造的 “关键原料”，半导体行业协会在 2023 年对美国地质调查局关于氦气供应风险的回应中指出。</p>
<p>它当时写道：“氦气作为惰性气体和高热导体的独特性质使其在防止不必要的化学反应和确保晶圆温度控制与精度的功能中理想。”</p>
<p>乔治城安全与新兴技术中心的高级研究分析师汉娜·多门解释说，这种气体可以在刻蚀和沉积等过程中帮助冷却晶圆，此外还可以冷却光刻光源。</p>
<p>刻蚀、沉积和光刻都是将晶圆转变为芯片的复杂图案创建过程中的不同步骤。氦气还可以用于其他用途，例如检测泄漏。</p>
<p>多门告诉《国会山》：“所有这些都是生产大家谈论的前沿芯片的关键组成部分或过程。而韩国、台湾及其他领先的半导体厂商是氦气或高纯度氦气的关键用户。”</p>
<p>尽管担忧日益加剧，供应链服务公司 Circular Technology 的全球研究与市场情报负责人布拉德·加斯特维斯建议，目前的情况应被视为 “黄灯而非红灯”。</p>
<p>加斯特维斯在上周的一份研究报告中写道：“尽管当前的地缘政治形势给氦气市场带来了波动，但半导体和人工智能基础设施生态系统似乎并未面临立即的运营中断。”</p>
<p>他补充道：“长期合同、库存缓冲、回收系统和替代生产地区的存在意味着行业可能能够吸收短期的干扰。”</p>
<p>他强调，任何干扰的持续时间将是决定影响严重程度的关键。在早期阶段，现货氦气价格预计会上涨，工业气体供应商可能会收紧供应。</p>
<p>但如果干扰持续超过几周，生产半导体的设施可能会开始面临 “运营限制或成本增加，” 加斯特维斯指出。</p>
<p>多门同样表示：“看起来短缺可能还没有像人们担心的那样严重。”</p>
<p>她补充道：“我认为，至少受影响的制造公司可能正在探索替代供应商，并考虑如何减轻当前和未来的任何干扰，尤其是如果战争持续超过几周甚至几个月。”</p>
<p>但她指出，寻找替代供应商并不是一种 “即插即用的解决方案”，因为芯片制造商需要特定纯度水平的氦气，而供应商必须经过资格认证过程。</p>
<p>多门表示：“未来一个问题可能是，这种首次干扰是否可能是一个警钟，也许对政策制定者来说，或者是否会推动更多投资到其他地方的氦气生产，或减少对单一供应商的依赖。”</p>
<p>芯片供应链的潜在后果并未被特朗普政府忽视，该政府将人工智能和与中国在技术上的竞争视为关键优先事项。</p>
<p>美国经济事务副国务卿雅各布·赫尔伯格周一将霍尔木兹海峡发生的事件形容为 “一堂课”。</p>
<p>他说：“伊朗故意将全球经济中的一个单一瓶颈武器化，通过一条狭窄的水道挟持世界。而这里的教训不仅仅是关于石油的，而是关于依赖性。”</p>
<p>“这关乎当文明的物理基础设施、关键节点、走廊、电缆、港口，成为战场时会发生什么，” 赫尔伯格继续说道。</p>
<p>“当一个政权计算出世界对这些基础设施的需求超过了对其侵略后果的恐惧时，我们不会让这种计算扩散到支撑我们整个经济的技术和半导体供应链中，” 他补充道。</p>

广发中证半导体材料设备ETF

动态半导体 ETF - Invesco

半导体 ETF - VanEck Vectors

<p>正在进行的伊朗战争正在扰乱氦气供应，这对半导体制造至关重要，因为它限制了对卡塔尔氦气生产的获取。冲突已导致霍尔木兹海峡的天然气生产和运输暂停，可能导致氦气出口下降 14%。虽然预计半导体行业不会出现立即的运营中断，但对氦气价格上涨和长期供应问题的担忧依然存在。专家建议，企业正在探索替代供应商，但由于纯度要求，寻找合适的替代品非常复杂</p>

<p>The war in Iran is threatening a small but crucial part of the complex supply chain that helps produce the world’s chips, as the conflict limits access to a large chunk of the world’s helium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗的战争威胁到一个小但至关重要的复杂供应链部分，该供应链帮助生产全球的芯片，因为冲突限制了对世界上大量氦气的获取。</p>
</div><p>Qatar produces about a third of the world’s helium, a gas that is central to the semiconductor manufacturing process at a moment when chips have become increasingly crucial as the lifeblood behind AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡塔尔生产约三分之一的世界氦气，这种气体在半导体制造过程中至关重要，而此时芯片已成为人工智能背后的命脉。</p>
</div><p>But the war with Iran has disrupted Qatari natural gas production and the helium that is extracted alongside it, while also bringing a key shipping corridor to a halt through the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但与伊朗的战争扰乱了卡塔尔的天然气生产以及与之共同提取的氦气，同时也使霍尔木兹海峡这一关键航运通道停滞不前。</p>
</div><p>“You’ve got two problems — you’ve got the problem that you’re not getting output, and the second problem is that you’re getting an interruption in the logistics and the shipping,” said Simon Croom, a professor of supply chain management at the University of San Diego.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圣地亚哥大学供应链管理教授西蒙·克鲁姆表示：“你面临两个问题——一个是你没有产出，另一个是物流和运输中断。”</p>
</div><p>“That compounds because so many other products in the supply chain pass through the Middle East, whether it’s the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal,” he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充道：“这会加剧，因为供应链中的许多其他产品都经过中东，无论是霍尔木兹海峡还是苏伊士运河。”</p>
</div><p>The conflict with Iran, which has now dragged on for more than three weeks, has proven particularly disruptive for energy markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与伊朗的冲突已经持续了超过三周，对能源市场造成了特别大的干扰。</p>
</div><p>Following the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, Tehran has responded by hitting targets throughout the Middle East, including gas and oil infrastructure. It has also closed the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and carries about a fifth of the world’s oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2 月底美国和以色列对伊朗的首次打击后，德黑兰通过袭击中东各地的目标作出回应，包括天然气和石油基础设施。它还关闭了霍尔木兹海峡，这条水道连接波斯湾和印度洋，运输约五分之一的世界石油。</p>
</div><p>This has sent oil prices surging to more than $100 a barrel at times. But while much attention has focused on reverberations through the oil and gas markets, the same factors are also disrupting the supply of helium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这导致油价一度飙升至每桶超过 100 美元。但尽管人们对石油和天然气市场的影响给予了很多关注，但同样的因素也在扰乱氦气的供应。</p>
</div><p>Helium is extracted alongside natural gas. Iranian strikes have targeted Qatari natural gas plants, with Reuters reporting that the country’s helium exports are poised to fall 14 percent following a recent series of attacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>氦气是与天然气共同提取的。伊朗的袭击针对了卡塔尔的天然气厂，路透社报道该国的氦气出口在最近一系列袭击后预计将下降 14%。</p>
</div><p>It also faces a bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since early March, when Iran vowed to attack any vessels that attempted to travel through the corridor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它还面临霍尔木兹海峡的瓶颈，自 3 月初以来，该海峡实际上已关闭，伊朗誓言攻击任何试图通过该通道的船只。</p>
</div><p>Helium is a “critical input” for semiconductor manufacturing, the Semiconductor Industry Association noted in a 2023 response to the U.S. Geological Survey about helium supply risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>氦气是半导体制造的 “关键原料”，半导体行业协会在 2023 年对美国地质调查局关于氦气供应风险的回应中指出。</p>
</div><p>“Helium’s unique properties as an inert gas and a high thermal conductor make it ideal for use in functions that require preventing unwanted chemical reactions and ensuring control and precision of wafer temperatures,” it wrote at the time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它当时写道：“氦气作为惰性气体和高热导体的独特性质使其在防止不必要的化学反应和确保晶圆温度控制与精度的功能中理想。”</p>
</div><p>The gas can be used to help cool wafers during processes such as etching and deposition, in addition to cooling lithography light sources, explained Hanna Dohmen, a senior research analyst at Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乔治城安全与新兴技术中心的高级研究分析师汉娜·多门解释说，这种气体可以在刻蚀和沉积等过程中帮助冷却晶圆，此外还可以冷却光刻光源。</p>
</div><p>Etching, deposition and photolithography are all various steps in the process of creating the intricate patterns that turn the wafers into chips. Helium can also be used for other purposes, such as detecting leaks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>刻蚀、沉积和光刻都是将晶圆转变为芯片的复杂图案创建过程中的不同步骤。氦气还可以用于其他用途，例如检测泄漏。</p>
</div><p>“All of these are critical components or processes to producing those leading edge chips that everybody’s talking about,” Dohmen told The Hill. “And those companies in South Korea and Taiwan and other leading fabs are critical users of helium or high-purity helium.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多门告诉《国会山》：“所有这些都是生产大家谈论的前沿芯片的关键组成部分或过程。而韩国、台湾及其他领先的半导体厂商是氦气或高纯度氦气的关键用户。”</p>
</div><p>Despite growing concerns, Brad Gastwirth, global head of research and market intelligence for the supply chain services firm Circular Technology, suggested the current situation should be “viewed as a yellow flag rather than a red alert.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管担忧日益加剧，供应链服务公司 Circular Technology 的全球研究与市场情报负责人布拉德·加斯特维斯建议，目前的情况应被视为 “黄灯而非红灯”。</p>
</div><p>“While the current geopolitical situation has introduced volatility into helium markets, the semiconductor and AI infrastructure ecosystem does not appear to face immediate operational disruption,” Gastwirth wrote in a research note last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加斯特维斯在上周的一份研究报告中写道：“尽管当前的地缘政治形势给氦气市场带来了波动，但半导体和人工智能基础设施生态系统似乎并未面临立即的运营中断。”</p>
</div><p>“The presence of long term contracts, inventory buffers, recycling systems, and alternative production regions means the industry can likely absorb short term disruptions,” he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充道：“长期合同、库存缓冲、回收系统和替代生产地区的存在意味着行业可能能够吸收短期的干扰。”</p>
</div><p>He underscored that the length of any disruption will be key in determining the severity of the impact. In the early stages, spot helium prices are expected to rise, and industrial gas suppliers would likely tighten supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他强调，任何干扰的持续时间将是决定影响严重程度的关键。在早期阶段，现货氦气价格预计会上涨，工业气体供应商可能会收紧供应。</p>
</div><p>But if the disruption continues beyond a few weeks, the facilities producing semiconductors could begin to face “operating constraints or cost increases,” Gastwirth noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果干扰持续超过几周，生产半导体的设施可能会开始面临 “运营限制或成本增加，” 加斯特维斯指出。</p>
</div><p>Dohmen similarly suggested that “it appears that the shortage likely hasn’t yet hit as much as people have feared.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多门同样表示：“看起来短缺可能还没有像人们担心的那样严重。”</p>
</div><p>“I think, at the minimum, those impacted fabrication companies are likely exploring alternative suppliers and thinking about how to mitigate any of the disruptions now and also in the future, especially if the war does last longer than just a couple of weeks or even a couple of months,” she added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她补充道：“我认为，至少受影响的制造公司可能正在探索替代供应商，并考虑如何减轻当前和未来的任何干扰，尤其是如果战争持续超过几周甚至几个月。”</p>
</div><p>But she noted that finding alternative suppliers is not a “plug-and-play kind of solution,” given that chipmakers need helium at a particular level of purity and suppliers have to go through a qualification process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但她指出，寻找替代供应商并不是一种 “即插即用的解决方案”，因为芯片制造商需要特定纯度水平的氦气，而供应商必须经过资格认证过程。</p>
</div><p>“A question moving forward might be whether this sort of first disruption is potentially a wake-up call, maybe also for policymakers, or whether it drives more investment into helium production elsewhere or reducing dependencies from one specific supplier,” Dohmen said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多门表示：“未来一个问题可能是，这种首次干扰是否可能是一个警钟，也许对政策制定者来说，或者是否会推动更多投资到其他地方的氦气生产，或减少对单一供应商的依赖。”</p>
</div><p>The potential fallout for chip supply chains is not going unnoticed by the Trump administration, which has made AI and competition with China over the technology key priorities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>芯片供应链的潜在后果并未被特朗普政府忽视，该政府将人工智能和与中国在技术上的竞争视为关键优先事项。</p>
</div><p>Jacob Helberg, under secretary of State for economic affairs, on Monday described the events unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz as “a lesson.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国经济事务副国务卿雅各布·赫尔伯格周一将霍尔木兹海峡发生的事件形容为 “一堂课”。</p>
</div><p>“Iran is deliberately weaponizing a single choke point in the global economy to hold the world hostage through a narrow corridor of water. And the lesson here is not only about oil, it’s about dependency,” he said at a media briefing ahead of the Hill and Valley Forum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说：“伊朗故意将全球经济中的一个单一瓶颈武器化，通过一条狭窄的水道挟持世界。而这里的教训不仅仅是关于石油的，而是关于依赖性。”</p>
</div><p>“It’s about what happens when the physical infrastructure of civilization, the choke points, the corridors, the cables, the ports, become the battlefield themselves,” Helberg continued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这关乎当文明的物理基础设施、关键节点、走廊、电缆、港口，成为战场时会发生什么，” 赫尔伯格继续说道。</p>
</div><p>“When a regime calculates that the world needs that infrastructure more than it fears the consequences of their aggression, we will not let that calculus to metastasize into the technology and semiconductor supply chains that underpin our entire economy,” he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“当一个政权计算出世界对这些基础设施的需求超过了对其侵略后果的恐惧时，我们不会让这种计算扩散到支撑我们整个经济的技术和半导体供应链中，” 他补充道。</p>
</div>

伊朗战争导致氦气供应中断，威胁到芯片供应链