<h2>关键要点</h2>
<ul>
<li>英伟达财年第四季度收入同比激增 73%。</li>
<li>公司的首席执行官最近强调了一个到 2027 年的 1 万亿美元收入预测。</li>
<li>市场对周期性硬件业务的谨慎态度可能解释了该股近期的表现不佳。</li>
<li>我们更看好的 10 只股票 ›</li>
</ul>
<p>在过去六个月中，人工智能（AI）半导体设计公司 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NASDAQ: NVDA）的股票表现平平。事实上，截至目前，该股票在此期间实际上略有下跌。</p>
<p>对于那些随意关注头条新闻的投资者来说，这种股票表现似乎与现实完全脱节。毕竟，公司的业务依然强劲，展现出卓越的收入增长，并显示出来自全球最大科技企业的持续需求。</p>
<p><em><strong>人工智能会创造出世界上第一个万亿富翁吗？</strong> 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知的公司报告，该公司被称为 “不可或缺的垄断”，提供英伟达和英特尔都需要的关键技术。<strong>继续 »</strong></em></p>
<p>那么，股价上涨需要什么？这个问题需要超越当前的势头，理解市场如何在历史性的支出繁荣中定价硬件业务。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MjU1NS9ob3ctbG9uZy13aWxsLW52ZGEtc3RvY2sta2VlcC10cmFkaW5nLWZsYXQuanBnAjZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MjU1NS9ob3ctbG9uZy13aWxsLW52ZGEtc3RvY2sta2VlcC10cmFkaW5nLWZsYXQuanBnAjZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>一个历史性的增长周期</h2>
<p>目前，英伟达的业务看起来势不可挡。在公司 2026 财年第四季度（截至 2026 年 1 月 25 日），收入同比激增 73%，达到 681 亿美元。这一表现得益于公司数据中心部门，销售额跃升 75%，达到 623 亿美元。</p>
<p>盈利能力同样惊人。这家芯片制造商的每股收益攀升至 1.76 美元，较去年同期的 0.89 美元大幅增长。公司的现金生成能力强劲，足以在整个财年通过股票回购和分红（主要是股票回购）向股东返还令人印象深刻的 411 亿美元。</p>
<p>“计算需求正在呈指数级增长，” 英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋在公司财年第四季度财报中解释道。他补充说，客户 “正在争相投资于人工智能计算”，以推动他们未来的增长。</p>
<p>而且，这种势头预计不会很快停止。在 2027 财年第一季度，管理层预计收入将达到约 780 亿美元——这是一个显著的环比增长。但或许最引人注目的数据是在公司上周的 GTC 活动中披露的。黄仁勋表示，他现在预计 2025 年至 2027 年期间的收入至少为 1 万亿美元。如此庞大的数字，使得当前的需求可见性异常强劲。</p>
<h2>估值负担</h2>
<p>然而，尽管执行力惊人，该股近期却难以上涨。这种脱节的一个原因是股票的估值。截至目前，英伟达的市盈率约为 36，股票的定价几乎要求完美的执行。</p>
<p>这样的倍数要求公司不仅要将强劲的需求转化为不断增长的收入，还要在此过程中保持其卓越的盈利能力。在财年第四季度，英伟达报告的非 GAAP（调整后）毛利率为 75.2%。虽然这是一个令人印象深刻的数字，但随着整体人工智能硬件市场的成熟，客户对成本的抵制使得维持这样的毛利率变得越来越困难。</p>
<p>事实上，资金雄厚的科技巨头们正在积极开发自己的定制硅，以减少对英伟达昂贵硬件的依赖。<strong>Alphabet</strong>（NASDAQ: GOOG）（NASDAQ: GOOGL）向云客户提供自己的张量处理单元（TPU），而 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（NASDAQ: AMZN）则继续扩大其 Trainium 芯片的规模。甚至传统上向其他芯片制造商授权技术的 Arm（NASDAQ: ARM）本周宣布，它正在与资金雄厚的社交媒体巨头 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（NASDAQ: META）合作，打造自己的人工智能芯片。随着这些内部替代品的成熟并获得市场份额，它们对英伟达的定价能力构成了真正的风险。</p>
<h2>需要什么</h2>
<p>那么，英伟达的股票需要什么才能突破六个月的低迷并上涨？</p>
<p>答案并不简单。虽然一些投资者可能会得出结论，公司的迅猛增长，加上其惊人的指引和 1 万亿美元的销售前景，几乎应该保证股票上涨，但投资者必须记住，市场是一个前瞻性的机制。</p>
<p>为了证明我的观点，只需看看 <strong>美光科技</strong>（NASDAQ: MU）截至目前的_前瞻性_市盈率仅为 8。换句话说，尽管公司预计由于推动人工智能繁荣所需的内存供应受限而实现非凡增长，但投资者已经在定价一个周期性高峰。</p>
<p>随着对英伟达的竞争加剧，一些投资者可能担心公司的销售最终会放缓——即使这不会在今年发生——并且其利润率会随着时间的推移而下降。</p>
<p>最终，若要使这只成长股上涨，我认为英伟达需要证明其高利润率的软件和网络平台能够紧密锁定客户，从而使业务免受传统硬件周期的影响。或者，一个可能推动股价上涨的催化剂是人工智能繁荣的规模超出预期并持续更长时间。</p>
<p>在市场对当前人工智能建设不会以严重的下行周期结束感到信心之前，我认为该股可能会继续停滞不前。</p>
<h2>你现在应该购买英伟达的股票吗？</h2>
<p>在你购买英伟达的股票之前，请考虑以下几点：</p>
<p><em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> 分析师团队刚刚确定了他们认为的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong> 供投资者现在购买……而英伟达并不在其中。这 10 只入选的股票在未来几年可能会带来巨大的回报。</p>
<p>考虑到 <strong>Netflix</strong> 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1,000 美元，<strong>你现在将拥有 497,659 美元</strong>！* 或者当 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1,000 美元，<strong>你现在将拥有 1,095,404 美元</strong>！*</p>
<p>现在值得注意的是，<em>Stock Advisor</em> 的总平均回报率为 912% — 远超标普 500 的 185%。<strong>不要错过最新的前 10 名股票名单，加入由个人投资者为个人投资者建立的投资社区，尽在 <em>Stock Advisor</em>。</strong></p>
<p><strong>查看 10 只股票 »</strong></p>
<p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回报截至 2026 年 3 月 26 日。</em></p>
<p><em>Daniel Sparks 和他的客户在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。The Motley Fool 在 Alphabet、Amazon、Meta Platforms、Micron Technology 和 Nvidia 中持有股份并推荐这些股票。The Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
<p>此处表达的观点和意见仅代表作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映 Nasdaq, Inc. 的观点。</p>

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 ETF - VanEck Vectors

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - GraniteShares

费城交易所 半导体 ETF - iShares

<p>尽管第四季度收入激增 73%，主要得益于人工智能和数据中心的强劲需求，英伟达的股票在过去六个月中却停滞不前。首席执行官黄仁勋预测 2025 年至 2027 年将实现 1 万亿美元的收入。然而，股票的高估值（市盈率为 36）引发了人们对在科技巨头开发自有芯片的竞争加剧下保持盈利能力的担忧。为了使英伟达的股票上涨，它必须在硬件市场周期中展现出韧性，或者在人工智能领域获得显著的催化剂</p>

<h2>Key Points</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关键要点</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>Nvidia fiscal fourth-quarter revenue surged 73% year over year.</li>
<li>The company's CEO recently highlighted a $1 trillion revenue forecast extending through 2027.</li>
<li>The market's cautious approach to cyclical hardware businesses may explain the stock's recent underperformance.</li>
<li>10 stocks we like better than Nvidia ›</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>英伟达财年第四季度收入同比激增 73%。</li>
<li>公司的首席执行官最近强调了一个到 2027 年的 1 万亿美元收入预测。</li>
<li>市场对周期性硬件业务的谨慎态度可能解释了该股近期的表现不佳。</li>
<li>我们更看好的 10 只股票 ›</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Over the last six months, shares of artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor designer <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NASDAQ: NVDA) have gone nowhere. In fact, as of this writing, the stock is actually down slightly over that time frame.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去六个月中，人工智能（AI）半导体设计公司 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NASDAQ: NVDA）的股票表现平平。事实上，截至目前，该股票在此期间实际上略有下跌。</p>
</div><p>For investors casually watching the headlines, this stock performance might seem entirely disconnected from reality. After all, the business continues to fire on all cylinders, posting exceptional top-line growth and signaling sustained demand from the world's largest technology enterprises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于那些随意关注头条新闻的投资者来说，这种股票表现似乎与现实完全脱节。毕竟，公司的业务依然强劲，展现出卓越的收入增长，并显示出来自全球最大科技企业的持续需求。</p>
</div><p><em><strong>Will AI create the world's first trillionaire?</strong> Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an &#34;Indispensable Monopoly&#34; providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. <strong>Continue »</strong></em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>人工智能会创造出世界上第一个万亿富翁吗？</strong> 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知的公司报告，该公司被称为 “不可或缺的垄断”，提供英伟达和英特尔都需要的关键技术。<strong>继续 »</strong></em></p>
</div><p>So what will it take for shares to go higher? The issue requires looking beyond current momentum and understanding how the market prices hardware businesses amid a historic spending boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，股价上涨需要什么？这个问题需要超越当前的势头，理解市场如何在历史性的支出繁荣中定价硬件业务。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MjU1NS9ob3ctbG9uZy13aWxsLW52ZGEtc3RvY2sta2VlcC10cmFkaW5nLWZsYXQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F862555%2Fhow-long-will-nvda-stock-keep-trading-flat.jpg&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A historic growth cycle</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一个历史性的增长周期</h2>
</div><p>For now, Nvidia's business looks unstoppable. In the company's fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (a period that ended on Jan. 25, 2026), revenue surged 73% year over year to $68.1 billion. This performance was driven by the company's data center segment, which saw sales jump 75% to $62.3 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，英伟达的业务看起来势不可挡。在公司 2026 财年第四季度（截至 2026 年 1 月 25 日），收入同比激增 73%，达到 681 亿美元。这一表现得益于公司数据中心部门，销售额跃升 75%，达到 623 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Profitability was equally staggering. The chipmaker's earnings per share climbed to $1.76, up from just $0.89 in the year-ago quarter. And the company's cash generation was robust enough to support returning an impressive $41.1 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends (primarily share repurchases) during the full fiscal year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>盈利能力同样惊人。这家芯片制造商的每股收益攀升至 1.76 美元，较去年同期的 0.89 美元大幅增长。公司的现金生成能力强劲，足以在整个财年通过股票回购和分红（主要是股票回购）向股东返还令人印象深刻的 411 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Computing demand is growing exponentially,&#34; explained Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang in the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings release. He added that customers &#34;are racing to invest in AI compute&#34; to power their future growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“计算需求正在呈指数级增长，” 英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋在公司财年第四季度财报中解释道。他补充说，客户 “正在争相投资于人工智能计算”，以推动他们未来的增长。</p>
</div><p>And the momentum is not expected to stop anytime soon. For its first quarter of fiscal 2027, management guided for revenue to reach approximately $78.0 billion -- a significant sequential increase. But perhaps the most striking data point came recently during the company's GTC event last week. Huang said he now sees at least $1 trillion in revenue from 2025 through 2027. With a figure that large, demand visibility is unusually strong right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且，这种势头预计不会很快停止。在 2027 财年第一季度，管理层预计收入将达到约 780 亿美元——这是一个显著的环比增长。但或许最引人注目的数据是在公司上周的 GTC 活动中披露的。黄仁勋表示，他现在预计 2025 年至 2027 年期间的收入至少为 1 万亿美元。如此庞大的数字，使得当前的需求可见性异常强劲。</p>
</div><h2>The valuation burden</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值负担</h2>
</div><p>Yet despite this tremendous execution, the stock has struggled to gain ground recently. One reason for this disconnect is the stock's valuation. Trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 36 as of this writing, Nvidia shares are priced for near-flawless execution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，尽管执行力惊人，该股近期却难以上涨。这种脱节的一个原因是股票的估值。截至目前，英伟达的市盈率约为 36，股票的定价几乎要求完美的执行。</p>
</div><p>A multiple like this demands that the company not only keep converting strong demand into growing revenue, but also maintain its extraordinary profitability while doing so. In the fiscal fourth quarter, Nvidia reported a non-GAAP (adjusted) gross margin of 75.2%. While that is an impressive figure, maintaining margins at that level becomes increasingly difficult as the overall AI hardware market matures and customers push back on costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这样的倍数要求公司不仅要将强劲的需求转化为不断增长的收入，还要在此过程中保持其卓越的盈利能力。在财年第四季度，英伟达报告的非 GAAP（调整后）毛利率为 75.2%。虽然这是一个令人印象深刻的数字，但随着整体人工智能硬件市场的成熟，客户对成本的抵制使得维持这样的毛利率变得越来越困难。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, deep-pocketed technology giants are actively developing their own custom silicon to reduce their reliance on Nvidia's expensive hardware. <strong>Alphabet</strong>(NASDAQ: GOOG)(NASDAQ: GOOGL) offers its own tensor processing units (TPUs) to cloud customers, while <strong>Amazon</strong>(NASDAQ: AMZN) continues to scale its Trainium chips. And even Arm (NASDAQ: ARM), which traditionally licenses technology to other chipmakers, announced this week that it's building its own AI chip in partnership with the deep-pocketed social media giant, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(NASDAQ: META). As these in-house alternatives mature and gain market share, they pose a real risk to Nvidia's pricing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，资金雄厚的科技巨头们正在积极开发自己的定制硅，以减少对英伟达昂贵硬件的依赖。<strong>Alphabet</strong>（NASDAQ: GOOG）（NASDAQ: GOOGL）向云客户提供自己的张量处理单元（TPU），而 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（NASDAQ: AMZN）则继续扩大其 Trainium 芯片的规模。甚至传统上向其他芯片制造商授权技术的 Arm（NASDAQ: ARM）本周宣布，它正在与资金雄厚的社交媒体巨头 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（NASDAQ: META）合作，打造自己的人工智能芯片。随着这些内部替代品的成熟并获得市场份额，它们对英伟达的定价能力构成了真正的风险。</p>
</div><h2>What it will take</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>需要什么</h2>
</div><p>So, what will it take for Nvidia stock to break out of its six-month slump and push higher?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，英伟达的股票需要什么才能突破六个月的低迷并上涨？</p>
</div><p>The answer isn't simple. While some investors may conclude that the company's blistering growth, combined with its amazing guidance and its $1 trillion sales outlook, should almost guarantee that the stock rises, investors have to keep in mind that the market is a forward-looking mechanism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>答案并不简单。虽然一些投资者可能会得出结论，公司的迅猛增长，加上其惊人的指引和 1 万亿美元的销售前景，几乎应该保证股票上涨，但投资者必须记住，市场是一个前瞻性的机制。</p>
</div><p>To prove my point, just look at <strong>Micron Technology</strong>'s (NASDAQ: MU) <em>forward</em> price-to-earnings ratio of just 8 as of this writing. In other words, despite the company guiding for extraordinary growth as the memory required to fuel the AI boom remains supply constrained, investors are already pricing in a cyclical peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了证明我的观点，只需看看 <strong>美光科技</strong>（NASDAQ: MU）截至目前的_前瞻性_市盈率仅为 8。换句话说，尽管公司预计由于推动人工智能繁荣所需的内存供应受限而实现非凡增长，但投资者已经在定价一个周期性高峰。</p>
</div><p>With competition intensifying for Nvidia, some investors may be worried that the company's sales will eventually slow -- even if it doesn't happen this year -- and its margins will erode over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着对英伟达的竞争加剧，一些投资者可能担心公司的销售最终会放缓——即使这不会在今年发生——并且其利润率会随着时间的推移而下降。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, for the growth stock to rise, I believe Nvidia will need to prove that its high-margin software and networking platforms can lock in customers tightly enough to insulate the business from traditional hardware cycles. Alternatively, a catalyst that could lift the stock is the AI boom turning out to be bigger and lasting longer than expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，若要使这只成长股上涨，我认为英伟达需要证明其高利润率的软件和网络平台能够紧密锁定客户，从而使业务免受传统硬件周期的影响。或者，一个可能推动股价上涨的催化剂是人工智能繁荣的规模超出预期并持续更长时间。</p>
</div><p>Until the market feels confident that the current AI build-out will not end in a severe downcycle, I think the stock could remain stuck in neutral.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在市场对当前人工智能建设不会以严重的下行周期结束感到信心之前，我认为该股可能会继续停滞不前。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy stock in Nvidia right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该购买英伟达的股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you buy stock in Nvidia, consider this:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你购买英伟达的股票之前，请考虑以下几点：</p>
</div><p>The <em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> analyst team just identified what they believe are the <strong>10 best stocks</strong> for investors to buy now… and Nvidia wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> 分析师团队刚刚确定了他们认为的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong> 供投资者现在购买……而英伟达并不在其中。这 10 只入选的股票在未来几年可能会带来巨大的回报。</p>
</div><p>Consider when <strong>Netflix</strong> made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, <strong>you’d have $497,659</strong>!* Or when <strong>Nvidia</strong> made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, <strong>you’d have $1,095,404</strong>!*</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到 <strong>Netflix</strong> 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1,000 美元，<strong>你现在将拥有 497,659 美元</strong>！* 或者当 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1,000 美元，<strong>你现在将拥有 1,095,404 美元</strong>！*</p>
</div><p>Now, it’s worth noting <em>Stock Advisor’s</em> total average return is 912% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 185% for the S&amp;P 500. <strong>Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with <em>Stock Advisor</em>, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在值得注意的是，<em>Stock Advisor</em> 的总平均回报率为 912% — 远超标普 500 的 185%。<strong>不要错过最新的前 10 名股票名单，加入由个人投资者为个人投资者建立的投资社区，尽在 <em>Stock Advisor</em>。</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>See the 10 stocks »</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看 10 只股票 »</strong></p>
</div><p><em>*Stock Advisor returns as of March 26, 2026.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回报截至 2026 年 3 月 26 日。</em></p>
</div><p><em>Daniel Sparks and his clients have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Micron Technology, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Daniel Sparks 和他的客户在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。The Motley Fool 在 Alphabet、Amazon、Meta Platforms、Micron Technology 和 Nvidia 中持有股份并推荐这些股票。The Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
</div><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此处表达的观点和意见仅代表作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映 Nasdaq, Inc. 的观点。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock Has Gone Nowhere for 6 Months. What Will It Take for Shares to Go Higher?

nasdaq

英伟达

英伟达的股票在过去六个月里几乎没有变化。股价需要什么条件才能上涨？