<p>伊朗战争引发的能源冲击正在推动全球金融市场出现罕见的多资产同步崩溃。3 月份，股票、债券和黄金均出现下跌，传统投资组合防御几乎完全失效，投资者面临近年来最严重的风险厌恶困境。根据《金融时报》，追踪发达市场和新兴市场股票的 MSCI 世界指数在 3 月份下跌了约 9%。在美国股市，标普 500 指数连续第五周下跌，创下自 2022 年以来最长的连跌纪录，而纳斯达克 100 指数则进入了修正区间。同时，全球政府和企业债券的综合指数下跌超过 3%，标志着自 2022 年 9 月以来传统 “60-40” 股票债券组合的最差月度表现。黄金本月也暴跌 15%，投资者被迫在流动性压力下清算之前重仓的多头头寸。市场的核心恐惧在于滞涨风险。中东战争爆发后，能源价格的急剧上涨引发了对全球经济放缓和通货膨胀上升的担忧，迫使全球各国央行重新考虑加息的可能性，这反过来又严重影响了三大资产类别：股票、债券和黄金。</p>
<p><strong><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7443445_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7443445_image3.png"/></strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/6923401_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/6923401_image3.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>“没有有效的应对措施”：三大资产承压</strong></h2>
<p>此次抛售的罕见之处在于三大资产类别的同步下跌：股票、债券和黄金，使得多资产的多样化投资策略几乎失效。</p>
<p>在股市中，追踪发达市场和新兴市场股票的 MSCI 世界指数在 3 月份下跌了约 9%。在美国股市，标普 500 指数连续第五周下跌，创下自 2022 年以来最长的连跌纪录，而纳斯达克 100 指数则进入了修正区间。在债市中，10 年期美国国债收益率攀升至 4.48%，为自 7 月以来的最高水平，而 30 年期收益率接近 5%。欧洲债券收益率也达到了自冲突爆发以来的最高水平。债券抛售不仅反映了通胀预期的上升，也反映了市场对全球主要央行政策路径的重新定价。黄金价格的崩溃更是出乎意料。黄金在过去两年经历了强劲的反弹，今年 1 月达到峰值，但此后暴跌 15%。法国巴黎银行资产管理公司的多资产投资组合经理 Sophie Huynh 指出，投资者正在 “清算黄金等高收益资产” 以满足流动性需求，因为他们 “无处可藏”。Tikehau Capital 的资本市场战略负责人 Raphaël Thuin 直言不讳地表示：“对投资者有效的是什么？没有。这真的是你能想象的最糟糕的情况之一。过去几周管理投资组合极其困难。” 特朗普的言论未能阻止市场的下跌，市场信心已经动摇。特朗普延长了对伊朗能源基础设施攻击的最后期限，但这一声明未能平息投资者情绪。标普 500 指数在周五再次下跌 1.7%，延续了前一个交易日的跌势（自冲突开始以来的最大单日跌幅），创下自去年关税争端以来的最大两日跌幅。瑞穗证券固定收益策略负责人 Jordan Rochester 表示，特朗普的延长 “并没有解决霍尔木兹海峡封锁的长期问题”，并且 “市场可能开始更少关注白宫的口头压力，而更多关注实际的能源短缺现实。” 美国国务卿 Marco Rubio 预测战争将在 “几周内而不是几个月内” 结束，但市场几乎没有反应。Instinet 的股票交易负责人 Larry Weiss 表示：“几周前，这样的消息会推动市场上涨，但今天没有反应。没有人知道接下来会发生什么，大家对美国政府和伊朗的声明都存在内在的不信任。” Federated Hermes 的股票副首席投资官 Steve Chiavarone 也指出：“特朗普之前通过言辞稳定了油市和债市，市场在等待冲突结束，但今天市场不再对此作出反应。” src=&#34;https://img.jinse.com.cn/6923408_image3.png&#34; type=&#34;block&#34;</p>
<h2><strong>防御工具失效，多样化逻辑面临挑战</strong></h2>
<p>这场危机不仅是市场的修正，也是对过去几十年多资产多样化投资框架的深刻考验。</p>
<p>Tallbacken Capital Advisors 的创始人 Michael Purves 在一份报告中向客户解释道：如果一位投资者在 2 月 27 日（冲突爆发前一天）具备完美的预见，并提前购买了债券、黄金、VIX 看涨期权和标普 500 保护性期权，那么现在几乎所有的头寸都将面临亏损。彭博情报的 ETF 分析师 Athanasios Psarofagis 的研究显示，今年在股票下跌的交易日，债券和黄金同步上涨的概率仅约为 43%，而比特币上涨的概率更低，仅约为 25%，这两个数字都显著低于十年前超过 60% 的水平。高盛的资产配置策略负责人 Christian Mueller-Glissmann 指出，在通胀冲击的早期阶段，“唯一有效的工具” 是押注于通胀或商品价格上涨的衍生品。他的团队在冲突开始一周后增加了现金头寸。最近的一项美银基金经理调查显示，自 COVID-19 大流行于 3 月开始以来，投资者以最快的速度注入现金。尽管当前局势紧张，一些市场参与者认为这种情况的可持续性取决于冲突的发展。State Street Investment Management 的首席投资策略师 Michael Arone 表示，固定收益多样化的失败可能是暂时的。他的团队最近减少了股票敞口，增加了债券持有，并预计一旦美伊紧张局势开始缓解，通胀风险减轻，债券市场将恢复降息逻辑。然而，施罗德的 Mina Krishnan 警告说，市场环境已经发生了更深层次的结构性变化：“世界已经从需求侧冲击转向供给侧冲击，旧的投资策略需要进行修订。” 她的团队在中东冲突爆发前已经通过信用违约掉期购买了保护，并持续持有这些头寸。Tikehau Capital 的 Raphaël Thuin 直接指出核心矛盾：“传统的避险资产概念正受到越来越多的挑战。全球经济和金融市场不断演变的动态使这一叙述变得复杂。”</p>

易方达黄金矿-R

标普 500 ETF - Vanguard

德银贵金属基金 - PowerShares

<p>全球金融市场因伊朗战争带来的能源冲击，正经历罕见的股票、债券和黄金的同步崩溃。MSCI 世界指数在 3 月份下跌了约 9%，标普 500 指数创下自 2022 年以来最长的连跌纪录。债券收益率急剧上升，黄金价格因投资者在流动性压力下平仓而暴跌 15%。市场面临滞胀的恐惧，各国央行正在重新考虑利率政策。这场危机对传统的多资产分散投资策略提出了挑战，使投资者几乎没有保护的选择</p>

<p>The energy shock triggered by the Iran war is pushing global financial markets into a rare, simultaneous collapse across multiple assets. Stocks, bonds, and gold all fell in March, with traditional portfolio defenses failing almost entirely, leaving investors facing their most severe risk aversion dilemma in recent years. According to the Financial Times, the MSCI World Index, which tracks stocks in developed and emerging markets, fell by about 9% in March. In the US stock market, the S&amp;P 500 fell for the fifth consecutive week, marking its longest losing streak since 2022, while the Nasdaq 100 entered correction territory for the week. Meanwhile, the composite index of global government and corporate bonds fell by more than 3%, marking the worst monthly performance for the traditional &#34;60-40&#34; stock-bond portfolio since September 2022. Gold also plummeted 15% this month, as investors were forced to liquidate previously heavily bought long positions under liquidity pressure. The core fear in the market lies in the risk of stagflation. Following the outbreak of the Middle East wars, the sharp rise in energy prices has raised concerns about a global economic slowdown coupled with rising inflation, forcing central banks around the world to reconsider the possibility of raising interest rates, which in turn has severely impacted the three major asset classes: stocks, bonds, and gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗战争引发的能源冲击正在推动全球金融市场出现罕见的多资产同步崩溃。3 月份，股票、债券和黄金均出现下跌，传统投资组合防御几乎完全失效，投资者面临近年来最严重的风险厌恶困境。根据《金融时报》，追踪发达市场和新兴市场股票的 MSCI 世界指数在 3 月份下跌了约 9%。在美国股市，标普 500 指数连续第五周下跌，创下自 2022 年以来最长的连跌纪录，而纳斯达克 100 指数则进入了修正区间。同时，全球政府和企业债券的综合指数下跌超过 3%，标志着自 2022 年 9 月以来传统 “60-40” 股票债券组合的最差月度表现。黄金本月也暴跌 15%，投资者被迫在流动性压力下清算之前重仓的多头头寸。市场的核心恐惧在于滞涨风险。中东战争爆发后，能源价格的急剧上涨引发了对全球经济放缓和通货膨胀上升的担忧，迫使全球各国央行重新考虑加息的可能性，这反过来又严重影响了三大资产类别：股票、债券和黄金。</p>
</div><p><strong><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7443445_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7443445_image3.png"/></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7443445_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7443445_image3.png"/></strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/6923401_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/6923401_image3.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>&#34;Nothing is effective&#34;: Three major assets under pressure</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>“没有有效的应对措施”：三大资产承压</strong></h2>
</div><p>The rarity of this round of sell-off lies in the simultaneous decline of three asset classes: stocks, bonds, and gold, rendering multi-asset diversification strategies almost ineffective.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次抛售的罕见之处在于三大资产类别的同步下跌：股票、债券和黄金，使得多资产的多样化投资策略几乎失效。</p>
</div><p>In the stock market, the MSCI World Index, which tracks stocks from both developed and emerging markets, fell by about 9% in March. In the US stock market, the S&amp;P 500 fell for the fifth consecutive week, marking its longest losing streak since 2022, while the Nasdaq 100 entered correction territory for the week. In the bond market, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds climbed to 4.48%, its highest level since July, while the 30-year yield approached 5%. European bond yields also hit their highest levels since the outbreak of the conflict. The bond sell-off doesn't simply reflect rising inflation expectations; it also reflects the market's repricing of the policy paths of major central banks worldwide. The collapse in gold prices was even more unexpected. Gold had experienced a strong rally over the past two years, peaking in January of this year, but has since plummeted 15%. Sophie Huynh, multi-asset portfolio manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management, pointed out that investors are &#34;liquidating high-yield assets like gold&#34; to meet liquidity needs because they have &#34;nowhere to hide.&#34; Raphaël Thuin, Head of Capital Markets Strategy at Tikehau Capital, bluntly stated: &#34;What works for investors? Nothing. This is truly one of the worst situations you can imagine. Managing portfolios has been extremely difficult over the past few weeks.&#34; Trump's statements failed to stop the bleeding, and market confidence has cracked. Trump extended the deadline for attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, but this statement failed to calm investor sentiment. The S&amp;P 500 fell another 1.7% on Friday, extending the previous trading day's decline (its worst single-day drop since the conflict began), marking the largest two-day drop since last year's tariff dispute. Jordan Rochester, head of fixed income strategy at Mizuho, ​​said that Trump's extension &#34;does not solve the long-standing problem of the Strait of Hormuz blockade,&#34; and &#34;the market may begin to focus less on the White House's verbal pressure and more on the reality of the on-the-ground energy shortage.&#34; US Secretary of State Marco Rubio predicted the war would end &#34;in weeks, not months,&#34; but the market barely reacted. Larry Weiss, head of equity trading at Instinet, said: &#34;A few weeks ago, such news would have driven the market up, but today there's been no reaction. Nobody knows what's going to happen next, and there's an inherent distrust of statements from both the US government and Iran.&#34; Steve Chiavarone, deputy chief investment officer for equities at Federated Hermes, also noted: &#34;Trump previously stabilized the oil and bond markets with his rhetoric, and the market was waiting for the conflict to end, but today the market is no longer responding to it.&#34; src=&#34;https://img.jinse.com.cn/6923408_image3.png&#34; type=&#34;block&#34;&gt;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股市中，追踪发达市场和新兴市场股票的 MSCI 世界指数在 3 月份下跌了约 9%。在美国股市，标普 500 指数连续第五周下跌，创下自 2022 年以来最长的连跌纪录，而纳斯达克 100 指数则进入了修正区间。在债市中，10 年期美国国债收益率攀升至 4.48%，为自 7 月以来的最高水平，而 30 年期收益率接近 5%。欧洲债券收益率也达到了自冲突爆发以来的最高水平。债券抛售不仅反映了通胀预期的上升，也反映了市场对全球主要央行政策路径的重新定价。黄金价格的崩溃更是出乎意料。黄金在过去两年经历了强劲的反弹，今年 1 月达到峰值，但此后暴跌 15%。法国巴黎银行资产管理公司的多资产投资组合经理 Sophie Huynh 指出，投资者正在 “清算黄金等高收益资产” 以满足流动性需求，因为他们 “无处可藏”。Tikehau Capital 的资本市场战略负责人 Raphaël Thuin 直言不讳地表示：“对投资者有效的是什么？没有。这真的是你能想象的最糟糕的情况之一。过去几周管理投资组合极其困难。” 特朗普的言论未能阻止市场的下跌，市场信心已经动摇。特朗普延长了对伊朗能源基础设施攻击的最后期限，但这一声明未能平息投资者情绪。标普 500 指数在周五再次下跌 1.7%，延续了前一个交易日的跌势（自冲突开始以来的最大单日跌幅），创下自去年关税争端以来的最大两日跌幅。瑞穗证券固定收益策略负责人 Jordan Rochester 表示，特朗普的延长 “并没有解决霍尔木兹海峡封锁的长期问题”，并且 “市场可能开始更少关注白宫的口头压力，而更多关注实际的能源短缺现实。” 美国国务卿 Marco Rubio 预测战争将在 “几周内而不是几个月内” 结束，但市场几乎没有反应。Instinet 的股票交易负责人 Larry Weiss 表示：“几周前，这样的消息会推动市场上涨，但今天没有反应。没有人知道接下来会发生什么，大家对美国政府和伊朗的声明都存在内在的不信任。” Federated Hermes 的股票副首席投资官 Steve Chiavarone 也指出：“特朗普之前通过言辞稳定了油市和债市，市场在等待冲突结束，但今天市场不再对此作出反应。” src=&#34;https://img.jinse.com.cn/6923408_image3.png&#34; type=&#34;block&#34;</p>
</div><h2><strong>Defense tools fail, the logic of diversification faces challenges</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>防御工具失效，多样化逻辑面临挑战</strong></h2>
</div><p>This crisis is not only a market correction, but also a profound test of the multi-asset diversification investment framework of the past few decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这场危机不仅是市场的修正，也是对过去几十年多资产多样化投资框架的深刻考验。</p>
</div><p>Michael Purves, founder of Tallbacken Capital Advisors, explained this in a report to clients: An investor who had a perfect foresight on February 27th (the day before the conflict broke out) and had bought bonds, gold, VIX call options, and S&amp;P 500 protective options beforehand would now be at a loss in almost all of their positions. Research by Athanasios Psarofagis, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, shows that this year, on trading days when stocks fall, the probability of bonds and gold rising in tandem is only about 43%, and the probability of Bitcoin rising is even lower at about 25%, both significantly lower than the more than 60% level of ten years ago. Goldman Sachs' head of asset allocation strategy, Christian Mueller-Glissmann, pointed out that in the early stages of an inflationary shock, the &#34;only tool that can work&#34; is derivatives betting on rising inflation or commodity prices. His team went overweight in cash a week after the conflict began. A recent Bank of America fund manager survey shows that investors poured cash in at the fastest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic began in March. Despite the current tense situation, some market participants believe that the sustainability of this situation depends on the course of the conflict. Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Investment Management, stated that the failure of fixed-income diversification may be temporary. His team recently reduced its equity exposure and increased its bond holdings, and expects that once US-Iran tensions begin to ease and inflation risks subside, the bond market will return to a rate-cutting logic. However, Mina Krishnan of Schroders warns that the market environment has undergone a deeper structural shift: &#34;The world has shifted from demand-side shocks to supply-side shocks, and the old investment playbook needs to be revised.&#34; Her team had already purchased protection through credit default swaps before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict and has continued to hold them. Raphaël Thuin of Tikehau Capital points directly to the core contradiction: &#34;The traditional concept of safe-haven assets is increasingly being challenged. The ever-evolving dynamics of the global economy and financial markets have complicated this narrative.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Tallbacken Capital Advisors 的创始人 Michael Purves 在一份报告中向客户解释道：如果一位投资者在 2 月 27 日（冲突爆发前一天）具备完美的预见，并提前购买了债券、黄金、VIX 看涨期权和标普 500 保护性期权，那么现在几乎所有的头寸都将面临亏损。彭博情报的 ETF 分析师 Athanasios Psarofagis 的研究显示，今年在股票下跌的交易日，债券和黄金同步上涨的概率仅约为 43%，而比特币上涨的概率更低，仅约为 25%，这两个数字都显著低于十年前超过 60% 的水平。高盛的资产配置策略负责人 Christian Mueller-Glissmann 指出，在通胀冲击的早期阶段，“唯一有效的工具” 是押注于通胀或商品价格上涨的衍生品。他的团队在冲突开始一周后增加了现金头寸。最近的一项美银基金经理调查显示，自 COVID-19 大流行于 3 月开始以来，投资者以最快的速度注入现金。尽管当前局势紧张，一些市场参与者认为这种情况的可持续性取决于冲突的发展。State Street Investment Management 的首席投资策略师 Michael Arone 表示，固定收益多样化的失败可能是暂时的。他的团队最近减少了股票敞口，增加了债券持有，并预计一旦美伊紧张局势开始缓解，通胀风险减轻，债券市场将恢复降息逻辑。然而，施罗德的 Mina Krishnan 警告说，市场环境已经发生了更深层次的结构性变化：“世界已经从需求侧冲击转向供给侧冲击，旧的投资策略需要进行修订。” 她的团队在中东冲突爆发前已经通过信用违约掉期购买了保护，并持续持有这些头寸。Tikehau Capital 的 Raphaël Thuin 直接指出核心矛盾：“传统的避险资产概念正受到越来越多的挑战。全球经济和金融市场不断演变的动态使这一叙述变得复杂。”</p>
</div>

Global stocks, bonds, and gold prices are all slashed: "This is the worst-case scenario; investors have nowhere to hide."

- 伊朗战争引发的能源冲击使全球金融市场出现罕见的资产同步下跌。  
- MSCI 世界指数在 3 月下跌约 9%，美股 S&P 500 连续第五周下跌。  
- 投资者面临流动性压力，黄金价格本月暴跌 15%，多资产配置策略失效。

CoinLive

2 倍做多黄金 ETF - ProShares

黄金 ETF - iShares

实物黄金股 ETF - ETFS

华夏中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF

金属采矿 ETF - SPDR

全球黄金矿业股 MSCI ETF - iShares

初级黄金矿股 ETF

中金黄金

YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF

易方达黄金矿-U

黄金矿 ETF - Sprott

黄金和贵金属矿商 ETF - U.S. Global

金矿股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF

SPDR金

黄金 MiniShares 信托 - SPDR

标普 500 指数

标普 500 ETF - iShares

SPDR MSCI 世界因子策略ETF

黄金勘探商 ETF - GlobalX

金矿小盘股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

黄金 ETF - SPDR

阿尼科伊格尔矿业

2 倍做多小型金矿指数 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空小型金矿指数 ETF - Direxion

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

2 倍做空金矿指数 ETF - Direxion

纽蒙特矿业

Kinross Gold

2 倍做多金矿指数 ETF - Direxion

贵金属股 ETF -ETFS

华夏黄金ETF

Gold.com

博时标普500ETF

iShares MSCI世界指数ETF

3 倍做多黄金矿业 ETN - MicroSectors

山东黄金

易方达黄金矿业ETF

全球股票、债券和黄金价格全面下跌：“这是最糟糕的情况；投资者无处可逃。”