<p>TradingKey - 阿里巴巴集团（BABA）主要以其电子商务平台而闻名，许多人称阿里巴巴为 “中国的亚马逊”，因为它拥有非常庞大的市场、强大的物流和技术能力。</p>
<p>目前，阿里巴巴的业务范围更为广泛，包括但不限于云计算，阿里巴巴是全球最大的云计算提供商之一；他们已经开始开发与人工智能相关的产品；并运营支付宝，作为他们的数字支付服务。</p>
<p>此外，他们还在不断创造或投资新的消费应用和半导体设计。在过去五年中，阿里巴巴的每股价格上涨了 450%，这使得许多知名投资者（其中一些是在公司上市后下跌期间购买的）对阿里巴巴的未来前景持乐观态度；尽管如此，他们中的许多人仍然保持谨慎。</p>
<h2>核心电子商务引擎的状态</h2>
<p>尽管阿里巴巴的国内业务仍然是其核心，但公司继续实现增长，2026 年第四季度（2025 年 12 月 31 日）的收入为 2848.43 亿元人民币，较去年同期的 2801.5 亿元人民币有所增长。</p>
<p>在 2848.43 亿元中，阿里巴巴的国内业务收入同比增长 6%，达到 1593.47 亿元人民币，受益于用户基础的增长和交易行为的改善。</p>
<p>淘宝的月活跃用户实现了两位数的增长；88VIP 会员超过 5900 万，也实现了两位数的增长，瞬时零售板块的收入为 208 亿元人民币，同比增长 56%。</p>
<p>物流效率、订单组合和客户留存的改善，以及单位经济学和平均交易价值的提升，表明公司的核心商业引擎继续增强，而不仅仅依赖促销来推动其商业业务的增长。</p>
<h2>云计算和人工智能正在重塑阿里巴巴的增长逻辑</h2>
<p>阿里巴巴云的增长势头惊人，目前是阿里巴巴集团中增长最快的业务板块。</p>
<p>在上个季度，阿里巴巴云的收入为 432.84 亿元人民币（64.37 亿美元），较去年同期增长 36%。这一令人印象深刻的数字反映了对公共云和人工智能产品的强劲需求。人工智能收入在过去十个季度中实现了三位数的同比增长，表明组织正在增加 IT 预算以资助试点项目，并在处理能力和运行多个大型模型的能力方面取得实际成果。</p>
<p>为了利用这一机会，阿里巴巴管理团队正在实施一种新的商业模式，称为 “服务模型”（Model as a Service，MaaS），以提供人工智能能力。</p>
<p>阿里巴巴的云业务已从 “销售计算” 转变为 “销售人工智能能力”。现在的重点是创建一个连续的商业链，包括对最大模型及其推理工作负载的访问，以及对云服务的访问，以便产生更稳定和更大频率的收入。</p>
<p>他们还在构建一个内部结构，称为 “Token Hub”（或 “内部代币开发中心”），以整合他们在货币化数字助手和基于大型模型的应用方面的努力，同时继续开发他们用于构建人工智能能力的芯片和云基础设施。</p>
<p>将人工智能作为收入结构的一部分，而不是将其视为一个独立的研发业务，代表了阿里巴巴作为公司的重大进步。</p>
<p>人工智能在消费和企业领域都已公开。</p>
<p>例如，3 亿月活跃的千问用户，淘宝闪购系统现在允许购物者通过语音下达人工智能订单。</p>
<p>千问应用在农历市场期间的推出促成了在三个产品类别（购物、旅行和娱乐）之间完成 2 亿个订单，并提供了早期迹象，表明人工智能辅助购买正在形成习惯。</p>
<p>在企业方面，新成立的悟空部门旨在将人工智能融入流程，并将 MaaS 转变为客户可量化的生产力。阿里巴巴的平头哥硅芯片部门已将其内部 GPU 投入软件层面的量产。</p>
<p>这些芯片支持机器学习、微调和推理，能够与标准的人工智能框架协同工作，并且在与千问模型和阿里巴巴云结合使用时，预计将提供高成本、高性能的整体人工智能服务，以增强云基础设施。</p>
<h2>大雄心，具体目标</h2>
<p>通过将人工智能战略与具体的收入预期相结合，管理层提出，未来五年内，云计算和人工智能的收入增长将超过 1000 亿美元，MaaS 可能成为阿里巴巴云最大的收入来源。</p>
<p>这使得人工智能讨论更加清晰，将其背景从 “是否” 转变为 “多快” 或 “在什么盈利水平”。只要阿里巴巴继续以超过 100% 的年增长率增长人工智能收入，同时通过内部芯片生产和公共云利用来扩展人工智能基础设施，那么 MaaS 的需求增长将对公司的整体盈利能力产生积极影响。</p>
<p>如果人工智能服务的采用更加不稳定，或者由于竞争导致价格大幅下降，可能会更难维持这种利润增长；因此，组织将不得不依赖其电子商务业务和在中国以外的改进来支持利润增长。</p>
<h2>仍然笼罩在阿里巴巴股票上的风险</h2>
<p>投资者需要考虑全球政策和法规的类型。中国的政府结构仍然保留着过去几年在技术监管发生突变时的相同权力；因此，2022 年美国存托凭证被撤回（未找到）的风险也相当显著，但一些立法者正在试图施加更多压力于 SEC，研究退市的可能性，尽管近期市场情绪有所好转，这种风险仍然存在。</p>
<p>查理·芒格曾是阿里巴巴的大投资者（其股票仍在交易中），但在意识到当时中国政治不稳定后改变了对投资的看法，几乎卖掉了所有股份（导致他在 2023 年 11 月底之前成为净卖家）。这些事件极大地促使投资者对阿里巴巴的投资权重更加谨慎。</p>
<h2>2026 年展望及需要实现的目标</h2>
<p>在 2026 年，阿里巴巴的股票是否会继续上涨，取决于公司执行的能力和投资环境的状态。</p>
<p>在考虑执行时，阿里巴巴需要继续将对人工智能的兴趣转化为实际的合同工作量，同时在不同产业中扩大 MaaS 的采用率，并改善其商业部门的单位经济效益。</p>
<p>在稳定性方面，较少的新监管意外和国际跨境资本渠道的持续重新开放将使阿里巴巴的股价更充分地反映其基本面。阿里巴巴的股票对新闻事件的敏感度仍然远高于在更稳定司法管辖区的同行。</p>
<h2>现在应该购买阿里巴巴股票吗？</h2>
<p>阿里巴巴正在从一个主要用于买卖商品的网站转变为提供基于云的服务和人工智能（AI）的公司。该公司打算利用其提供 AI 模型的能力进行货币化，而不仅仅是销售用于这些 AI 模型的设备。</p>
<p>如果阿里巴巴的 MaaS 计划成功，并且阿里巴巴能够继续增强其零售业务的基本经济效益，那么阿里巴巴股票的故事可能会从一个翻身股票的故事转变为一个持久股票的故事。为了在电子商务领域取得成功，阿里巴巴必须实现其目标，并应对过去给投资者带来问题的环境。</p>
<p>了解更多</p>

DTCR

阿里巴巴

2 倍做多阿里巴巴 ETF - KraneShares

IDGT

2 倍做多 BABA ETF - GraniteShares

阿里巴巴-W

云计算 ETF - GlobalX

XDAT

<p>阿里巴巴集团（BABA）以其电子商务平台而闻名，正在向云计算和人工智能领域扩展，这些领域的增长显著。在 2026 年第四季度，阿里巴巴报告的收入为 2848.43 亿元人民币，国内业务同比增长 6%。阿里云的收入为 432.84 亿元人民币，同比增长 36%，这得益于对人工智能产品的强劲需求。该公司正在转向服务模型（MaaS），目标是在未来五年内从云计算和人工智能中实现超过 1000 亿美元的收入，这表明其多元化业务的未来前景强劲</p>

<p>TradingKey - The Alibaba Group (BABA) is primarily known for its eCommerce platform and many refer to Alibaba as &#34;Amazon of China,&#34; considering its very large marketplace, strong logistics and technology capabilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 阿里巴巴集团（BABA）主要以其电子商务平台而闻名，许多人称阿里巴巴为 “中国的亚马逊”，因为它拥有非常庞大的市场、强大的物流和技术能力。</p>
</div><p>Currently, Alibaba has a much broader set of operations, including but not limited to the cloud, where it is one of the world's largest cloud computing providers; they've started developing AI-related products; and operate Alipay, their digital payment service.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，阿里巴巴的业务范围更为广泛，包括但不限于云计算，阿里巴巴是全球最大的云计算提供商之一；他们已经开始开发与人工智能相关的产品；并运营支付宝，作为他们的数字支付服务。</p>
</div><p>In addition, they continue to create or invest in new consumer applications and semiconductor designs. Over the last five years, the price per share has increased by 450%, causing many well-known investors (some of whom purchased during the downturn after they went public) to look positively on the future prospects of Alibaba; though, many of them remain cautious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，他们还在不断创造或投资新的消费应用和半导体设计。在过去五年中，阿里巴巴的每股价格上涨了 450%，这使得许多知名投资者（其中一些是在公司上市后下跌期间购买的）对阿里巴巴的未来前景持乐观态度；尽管如此，他们中的许多人仍然保持谨慎。</p>
</div><h2>The State of the Core E‑commerce Engine</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>核心电子商务引擎的状态</h2>
</div><p>While Alibaba’s domestic business remains at its core, the company continues to achieve growth, as evidenced by the company’s revenue of 284.843 billion yuan in the 4th quarter of 2026 (December 31, 2025), an increase from the company’s revenue of 280.15 billion yuan in the same period last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管阿里巴巴的国内业务仍然是其核心，但公司继续实现增长，2026 年第四季度（2025 年 12 月 31 日）的收入为 2848.43 亿元人民币，较去年同期的 2801.5 亿元人民币有所增长。</p>
</div><p>Of the 284.843 billion yuan, the revenue of Alibaba’s domestic business grew 6% year over year to 159.347 billion yuan as it benefited from growth in its user base and an improvement in transaction behaviors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2848.43 亿元中，阿里巴巴的国内业务收入同比增长 6%，达到 1593.47 亿元人民币，受益于用户基础的增长和交易行为的改善。</p>
</div><p>Monthly active users on Taobao had a double-digit growth; 88VIP membership exceeded 59 million and had also seen double-digit growth, and the Instant Retail segment generated 20.8 billion yuan in revenue, representing a 56% year over year increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>淘宝的月活跃用户实现了两位数的增长；88VIP 会员超过 5900 万，也实现了两位数的增长，瞬时零售板块的收入为 208 亿元人民币，同比增长 56%。</p>
</div><p>The improvements resulting from efficiencies in logistics, order mix and customer retention from improved unit economics and average transaction values indicate that the company's core commerce engine continues to strengthen beyond simply relying on promotions to drive the growth of their commerce business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>物流效率、订单组合和客户留存的改善，以及单位经济学和平均交易价值的提升，表明公司的核心商业引擎继续增强，而不仅仅依赖促销来推动其商业业务的增长。</p>
</div><h2>Cloud and AI Are Rewriting Alibaba’s Growth Logic</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>云计算和人工智能正在重塑阿里巴巴的增长逻辑</h2>
</div><p>Alibaba Cloud's growth has been phenomenal and is currently the fastest-growing business segment within Alibaba Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴云的增长势头惊人，目前是阿里巴巴集团中增长最快的业务板块。</p>
</div><p>In the last quarter, Alibaba Cloud generated 43.284 billion CNY ($6.437 billion), an increase of 36% over the same period last year. This impressive number reflects strong demand for both public cloud and AI products. AI revenues have experienced triple-digit growth year over year for ten consecutive quarters, signifying that organizations are increasing their IT budgets to fund pilot projects and developing actual outcomes in terms of the cost of processing power and the ability to run many large models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上个季度，阿里巴巴云的收入为 432.84 亿元人民币（64.37 亿美元），较去年同期增长 36%。这一令人印象深刻的数字反映了对公共云和人工智能产品的强劲需求。人工智能收入在过去十个季度中实现了三位数的同比增长，表明组织正在增加 IT 预算以资助试点项目，并在处理能力和运行多个大型模型的能力方面取得实际成果。</p>
</div><p>To take advantage of this opportunity, the Alibaba management team is implementing a new business model called Model as a Service (MaaS) to deliver AI capabilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了利用这一机会，阿里巴巴管理团队正在实施一种新的商业模式，称为 “服务模型”（Model as a Service，MaaS），以提供人工智能能力。</p>
</div><p>Alibaba's cloud business has changed gears from &#34;selling compute&#34; to &#34;selling AI capabilities.&#34; The emphasis now is on creating one continuous commercial chain that includes access to the biggest models and their inference workloads, and access to cloud services so they can produce a more stable and larger frequency of revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴的云业务已从 “销售计算” 转变为 “销售人工智能能力”。现在的重点是创建一个连续的商业链，包括对最大模型及其推理工作负载的访问，以及对云服务的访问，以便产生更稳定和更大频率的收入。</p>
</div><p>They are also working on their own internal structure called &#34;Token Hub&#34; (or &#34;internally token development center&#34;) to group together their efforts for monetizing digital assistants and large model-based applications while also continuing the development of the chips and cloud infrastructure that they use to build value off of their AI capabilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们还在构建一个内部结构，称为 “Token Hub”（或 “内部代币开发中心”），以整合他们在货币化数字助手和基于大型模型的应用方面的努力，同时继续开发他们用于构建人工智能能力的芯片和云基础设施。</p>
</div><p>Integrating AI as part of the revenue structure instead of treating it as a separate R&amp;D based business represents a big step in Alibaba's evolution as a company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将人工智能作为收入结构的一部分，而不是将其视为一个独立的研发业务，代表了阿里巴巴作为公司的重大进步。</p>
</div><p>AI has gone public in both the consumer and enterprise sectors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能在消费和企业领域都已公开。</p>
</div><p>For example, 300 million monthly active Qianwen users, where the Taobao flash purchase system has now allowed shoppers to place AI orders through voice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，3 亿月活跃的千问用户，淘宝闪购系统现在允许购物者通过语音下达人工智能订单。</p>
</div><p>The launch of Qianwen on the launch of the Qianwen app during the lunar market period contributed to the completion of 200 million orders between three product categories (shopping, travel, and entertainment), and provided early indications that AI-assisted buying is becoming habit-forming.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>千问应用在农历市场期间的推出促成了在三个产品类别（购物、旅行和娱乐）之间完成 2 亿个订单，并提供了早期迹象，表明人工智能辅助购买正在形成习惯。</p>
</div><p>On the enterprise side, the new Wukong division has been created to incorporate AI into processes and change MaaS into quantifiable productivity for clients. The Alibaba Pingtouge silicon unit has moved its in-house GPUs into volume production at the software level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在企业方面，新成立的悟空部门旨在将人工智能融入流程，并将 MaaS 转变为客户可量化的生产力。阿里巴巴的平头哥硅芯片部门已将其内部 GPU 投入软件层面的量产。</p>
</div><p>These chips support machine learning, fine-tuning, and inference, where the chips can work with standard AI frameworks, and—when used with the Qianwen model and Alibaba Cloud—are anticipated to provide high-cost, high-performance overall AI services to enhance the cloud infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些芯片支持机器学习、微调和推理，能够与标准的人工智能框架协同工作，并且在与千问模型和阿里巴巴云结合使用时，预计将提供高成本、高性能的整体人工智能服务，以增强云基础设施。</p>
</div><h2>Big Ambition, Specific Targets</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>大雄心，具体目标</h2>
</div><p>By linking the AI strategy with specifically defined revenue expectations, management is proposing that revenue growth from cloud and AI will surpass $100 billion over the next five years, with MaaS likely becoming Alibaba Cloud's biggest revenue-generating product.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过将人工智能战略与具体的收入预期相结合，管理层提出，未来五年内，云计算和人工智能的收入增长将超过 1000 亿美元，MaaS 可能成为阿里巴巴云最大的收入来源。</p>
</div><p>This brings clarity to the AI discussion by changing its context from &#34;if&#34; to &#34;how quickly&#34; or &#34;at what level of profitability.&#34; As long as Alibaba continues to grow AI revenue at a rate greater than 100% year over year while scaling the AI infrastructure through in-house chip production and public cloud utilization, then revenue margins from increased req. of MaaS will be advantageous for the total profitability of the organization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得人工智能讨论更加清晰，将其背景从 “是否” 转变为 “多快” 或 “在什么盈利水平”。只要阿里巴巴继续以超过 100% 的年增长率增长人工智能收入，同时通过内部芯片生产和公共云利用来扩展人工智能基础设施，那么 MaaS 的需求增长将对公司的整体盈利能力产生积极影响。</p>
</div><p>If adoption of AI services is more variable and/or if price reductions due to competition increase significantly, it may be harder to maintain that margin growth; therefore, the organization will have to rely on its e-commerce operations and improvements made outside of China to support margin growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果人工智能服务的采用更加不稳定，或者由于竞争导致价格大幅下降，可能会更难维持这种利润增长；因此，组织将不得不依赖其电子商务业务和在中国以外的改进来支持利润增长。</p>
</div><h2>Risks That Still Shadow Alibaba Stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>仍然笼罩在阿里巴巴股票上的风险</h2>
</div><p>Investors need to take into account what type of global policy and regulations exist. China's governmental structure still has those same authorities in place from prior years when changes affecting technology regulation happened overnight; therefore, there was also significant risk that an American depository receipt could end up pulled (un-found) in 2022, But some lawmakers are trying to put more pressure on the SEC to study the possibility of delisting &amp; this still exists as a tail risk despite some recent good news on general market sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者需要考虑全球政策和法规的类型。中国的政府结构仍然保留着过去几年在技术监管发生突变时的相同权力；因此，2022 年美国存托凭证被撤回（未找到）的风险也相当显著，但一些立法者正在试图施加更多压力于 SEC，研究退市的可能性，尽管近期市场情绪有所好转，这种风险仍然存在。</p>
</div><p>Charlie Munger was also once a large investor in Alibaba (shares of which continue to be traded) but changed his opinion about his investment after realizing how politically unstable China was at the time, selling off almost all of his shares (resulting in him being a net seller through the end of November 2023). These events contribute greatly to investors being more cautious about Alibaba as an investment weighting due to these factors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查理·芒格曾是阿里巴巴的大投资者（其股票仍在交易中），但在意识到当时中国政治不稳定后改变了对投资的看法，几乎卖掉了所有股份（导致他在 2023 年 11 月底之前成为净卖家）。这些事件极大地促使投资者对阿里巴巴的投资权重更加谨慎。</p>
</div><h2>2026 Outlook and What Has to Go Right</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2026 年展望及需要实现的目标</h2>
</div><p>In 2026, whether Alibaba shares will continue moving higher depends on both the company's ability to execute properly and the state of the investment environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 年，阿里巴巴的股票是否会继续上涨，取决于公司执行的能力和投资环境的状态。</p>
</div><p>When considering execution, it is important for Alibaba to continue converting interest in AI into actual contracted workloads while expanding the adoption rate of MaaS across different industries, as well as improving the unit economics of its commerce unit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑执行时，阿里巴巴需要继续将对人工智能的兴趣转化为实际的合同工作量，同时在不同产业中扩大 MaaS 的采用率，并改善其商业部门的单位经济效益。</p>
</div><p>In terms of stability, fewer new regulatory surprises and a continued reopening of international cross-border capital channels would enable Alibaba's stock price to more fully reflect its underlying fundamentals. Alibaba's stock is still much more sensitive to news events than its peers in more stable jurisdictions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在稳定性方面，较少的新监管意外和国际跨境资本渠道的持续重新开放将使阿里巴巴的股价更充分地反映其基本面。阿里巴巴的股票对新闻事件的敏感度仍然远高于在更稳定司法管辖区的同行。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Buy Alibaba Stock Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在应该购买阿里巴巴股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Alibaba is changing from being mainly a site for buying and selling things into a company providing cloud-based services and artificial intelligence (AI). The company intends to monetaneously leverage its ability to offer AI models as opposed to merely selling devices to use those AI models on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴正在从一个主要用于买卖商品的网站转变为提供基于云的服务和人工智能（AI）的公司。该公司打算利用其提供 AI 模型的能力进行货币化，而不仅仅是销售用于这些 AI 模型的设备。</p>
</div><p>If Alibaba's Maturity as a Service (MaaS) plan is successful, and if Alibaba can continue to enhance the underlying economics of its retail business, the story of Alibaba's stock could transform from a story of being a turnaround stock to one of being a durable stock. For Alibaba to succeed as an e-commerce company, they have to achieve its goals and deal with an environment that has caused problems for investors in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果阿里巴巴的 MaaS 计划成功，并且阿里巴巴能够继续增强其零售业务的基本经济效益，那么阿里巴巴股票的故事可能会从一个翻身股票的故事转变为一个持久股票的故事。为了在电子商务领域取得成功，阿里巴巴必须实现其目标，并应对过去给投资者带来问题的环境。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
</div>

Alibaba Stock: Can a Cloud-and-AI Pivot Turn Recovery Into Durability?

- 阿里巴巴近期营收达 2848.43 亿元，因用户增长及交易行为改善。  
- 云计算和人工智能领域的迅猛发展，使其收入预计未来五年超 1000 亿美元。  
- 投资者需关注其执行能力与政策环境，以维持股价稳定。

阿里巴巴股票：云计算和人工智能的转型能否将复苏转变为持久的增长？