<p>TradingKey - PC 硬件的价格上涨压力正从存储芯片（内存）和 RAM 扩展到处理器领域。目前，CPU 市场正在启动一轮平均 10% 到 15% 的价格上涨，影响到服务器和消费产品。</p>
<p>据报道，英特尔（INTC）和 AMD 分别已通知客户，从四月开始将提高其整个处理器系列的价格。此外，相关产品的订单交货时间也将延长，从几周延长到几个月甚至更长。</p>
<p>CPU 价格上涨的迹象早在 2025 年就已显现。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260327/intel-CPU-0327-6f76bfa712ed49158b7ea908ab41e723.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260327/intel-CPU-0327-6f76bfa712ed49158b7ea908ab41e723.jpg"/></p>
<p>在 2025 年，英特尔首席财务官大卫·辛斯纳（David Zinsner）在接受《巴伦周刊》采访时指出，英特尔的芯片库存正在迅速减少，因为服务器和 PC 处理器的需求远超预期。他表示，数据中心和客户端 CPU 的需求正在快速上升，2026 年第一季度将是满足芯片需求的&#34;最具挑战性&#34;时期，因为到那时其芯片库存将耗尽。</p>
<h2>什么是 CPU？</h2>
<p>CPU，即中央处理器，是计算机系统的核心控制单元，负责执行指令、处理数据和协调各种硬件资源。从个人计算机到云数据中心，CPU 始终处理通用计算任务，并作为信息处理的基础。</p>
<p>在传统架构中，CPU 强调多功能性和稳定性，适合运行操作系统、逻辑计算和多任务调度。在人工智能时代，虽然大规模训练任务越来越多地由 GPU 处理，但 CPU 仍然是数据调度、系统控制和推理任务的基本基础。<strong>CPU 和内存芯片之间有什么区别？</strong></p>
<p>在半导体产业链中，CPU 和内存芯片代表着两种截然不同的基础逻辑。</p>
<p>功能上，CPU 是&#34;计算资源&#34;，而内存是&#34;容量资源&#34;。CPU 处理指令执行和数据处理，直接体现计算能力，而内存用于存储数据，基本上充当信息的存储介质。</p>
<p>在操作机制上，CPU 具有高主动控制能力，其价值体现在持续的计算和调度能力上，类似于&#34;生产引擎&#34;。相比之下，内存只有在被调用时才会产生价值，更像是&#34;库存资产&#34;。换句话说，CPU 创造计算能力输出，而内存提供数据供应，两者共同形成基本的&#34;计算能力 - 数据&#34;闭环。</p>
<p>关于产品属性，CPU 是高度差异化的产品。其性能依赖于架构设计、制造工艺和生态系统（如指令集和软件兼容性）。由于技术壁垒极高，市场长期以来由少数制造商主导，表现出明显的寡头特征。因此，CPU 定价往往反映&#34;技术与供需之间的相互作用&#34;，对周期表现出强大的韧性。</p>
<p>相比之下，内存则表现出更强的标准化和同质化。无论是 DRAM 还是 NAND，产品差异化极小，竞争主要集中在成本和容量扩展上。这使得内存价格对供需动态高度敏感；任何容量收缩或需求爆发都可能导致价格剧烈波动，甚至引发&#34;超级周期&#34;。</p>
<h2>CPU 价格会继续上涨吗？</h2>
<p>根据当前数据，CPU 确实进入了上升周期，但其轨迹与内存芯片根本不同。</p>
<p>短期内，CPU 价格预计将继续上涨。供需失衡可能在 2026 年第二季度进一步加剧，为价格上涨提供进一步扩张的空间。然而，从中长期来看，CPU 不太可能经历类似于内存市场的&#34;四倍激增&#34;的极端市场条件。</p>
<h3><strong>价格飙升抑制了部分私营部门需求。</strong></h3>
<p>CPU 价格受到完整系统需求的制约。PC 和服务器市场表现出显著的价格弹性，过高的价格直接抑制出货量——这一趋势已在亚马逊 2026 年初报告的销售下降中反映出来。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260327/amzn-sales-cpu-de19a2e0f02042c58c02d6ef2e4b9268.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260327/amzn-sales-cpu-de19a2e0f02042c58c02d6ef2e4b9268.jpg"/></p>
<p>[月度汇总销售数据，来源：3DCenter]</p>
<p>预计亚马逊在 2026 年 1 月售出了约 26,100 个 CPU 单元，比去年同期减少了近 40,000 个。2025 年 12 月的销售约为 44,000 个，比 2024 年 12 月减少了近 40,000 个。统计数据显示，亚马逊的库存周转率在去年 12 月至今年 2 月之间下降了 47%。</p>
<h3><strong>与 CPU 相关的替代技术正在崛起。</strong></h3>
<p>《汤姆硬件》之前的一篇文章指出，ARM 架构和定制硅（如云服务提供商自主开发的 CPU）正在侵蚀 x86 市场，这将限制价格上涨的空间。自从微软在 2024 年大力推广搭载 Snapdragon 处理器的 Copilot+ PC 以来，基于 Arm 的设备稳步进入市场。此外，高通甚至采取措施提升 Arm 上的 Windows 游戏体验，而 Nvidia 的 N1X 处理器预计将在今年晚些时候出现在笔记本电脑中。</p>
<p>这对 x86 系统构成了重大威胁，促使英特尔和 AMD 联手捍卫该架构的市场地位。然而，如果这两家公司无法满足市场对其处理器的需求，消费者可能别无选择，只能转向替代的 CPU 产品。</p>
<p>与此同时，埃隆·马斯克最近披露了建设 &#34;Terafab&#34; 芯片工厂的计划。尽管该项目仍处于规划阶段，短期内不太可能满足市场需求，但分析师安德鲁·佩尔科科估计，Terafab 的实际成本可能达到 350 亿到 400 亿美元；即使在乐观的情况下，芯片也最早要到 2028 年才能投产。然而，从长远来看，未来的芯片供应短缺预计将显著缓解。</p>
<p>晶圆厂扩张周期现已开始。尽管短期内供应紧张，但预计到 2026 年下半年，随着先进节点逐步释放产能，CPU 的供需关系将会缓解。英特尔此前表示，供应压力预计将在 3 月底达到峰值；随着产能向服务器和中高端产品转移，供应状况预计将在未来几个季度逐步改善。</p>
<p>因此，CPU 更可能表现出 &#34;适度上升趋势&#34; 而非 &#34;指数级激增&#34;。</p>
<p>总体而言，CPU 市场的定价逻辑正在从传统的 &#34;消费电子组件&#34; 向类似于电力和计算资源的 &#34;基础设施资产&#34; 转变。价格不再仅仅由 PC 需求决定，而是受到 AI 计算投资周期的主导。</p>
<p>这意味着 CPU 不会简单地复制内存芯片的爆炸性增长路径，但其战略重要性正在显著上升。在未来几年，CPU 价格波动将越来越依赖于 AI 资本支出、数据中心建设的进度以及先进制造工艺的供应能力。</p>
<p>了解更多</p>

亚马逊

04335

英特尔

<p>CPU 市场正在经历 10% 到 15% 的价格上涨，影响到服务器和消费产品，因为英特尔和 AMD 计划从四月开始提高价格。CPU 的需求超过了供应，英特尔的首席财务官预测在 2026 年初满足需求将面临挑战。虽然短期内 CPU 价格预计会上涨，但不太可能出现像内存芯片那样的极端波动。然而，高价格可能会抑制需求，正如亚马逊在 2026 年初报告的 CPU 销售大幅下降所示。替代技术，如 ARM 架构，也在不断涌现，可能会限制价格上涨</p>

<p>TradingKey - Price hike pressures on PC hardware are spreading from storage chips (Memory) and RAM to the processor sector. The CPU market is currently initiating a round of price increases averaging 10% to 15%, affecting both server and consumer products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - PC 硬件的价格上涨压力正从存储芯片（内存）和 RAM 扩展到处理器领域。目前，CPU 市场正在启动一轮平均 10% 到 15% 的价格上涨，影响到服务器和消费产品。</p>
</div><p>According to reports, previously Intel (INTC) and AMD have respectively notified customers that they will raise prices for their entire processor lineups starting in April. In addition, order lead times for relevant products will also be extended, stretching from several weeks to several months or even longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据报道，英特尔（INTC）和 AMD 分别已通知客户，从四月开始将提高其整个处理器系列的价格。此外，相关产品的订单交货时间也将延长，从几周延长到几个月甚至更长。</p>
</div><p>Signs of CPU price hikes first emerged as early as 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CPU 价格上涨的迹象早在 2025 年就已显现。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260327/intel-CPU-0327-6f76bfa712ed49158b7ea908ab41e723.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260327/intel-CPU-0327-6f76bfa712ed49158b7ea908ab41e723.jpg"/></p>
<p>In 2025, Intel Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner noted in an interview with Barron's that Intel's chip inventory was being rapidly depleted as demand for server and PC processors far exceeded expectations. He stated that demand for data center and client CPUs is climbing quickly, and the first quarter of 2026 will be the &#34;most challenging&#34; period to meet chip demand, as its chip inventory will be exhausted by then.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，英特尔首席财务官大卫·辛斯纳（David Zinsner）在接受《巴伦周刊》采访时指出，英特尔的芯片库存正在迅速减少，因为服务器和 PC 处理器的需求远超预期。他表示，数据中心和客户端 CPU 的需求正在快速上升，2026 年第一季度将是满足芯片需求的&#34;最具挑战性&#34;时期，因为到那时其芯片库存将耗尽。</p>
</div><h2>What is a CPU?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什么是 CPU？</h2>
</div><p>The CPU, also known as the Central Processing Unit, is the core control unit of a computer system, responsible for executing instructions, processing data, and coordinating various hardware resources. From personal computers to cloud data centers, the CPU consistently handles general-purpose computing tasks and serves as the foundation for information processing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CPU，即中央处理器，是计算机系统的核心控制单元，负责执行指令、处理数据和协调各种硬件资源。从个人计算机到云数据中心，CPU 始终处理通用计算任务，并作为信息处理的基础。</p>
</div><p>In traditional architectures, the CPU emphasizes versatility and stability, making it suitable for running operating systems, logic calculations, and multi-task scheduling. In the AI era, while large-scale training tasks are increasingly handled by GPUs, the CPU remains an essential foundation for data scheduling, system control, and inference tasks. <strong>What are the differences between CPUs and memory chips?</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在传统架构中，CPU 强调多功能性和稳定性，适合运行操作系统、逻辑计算和多任务调度。在人工智能时代，虽然大规模训练任务越来越多地由 GPU 处理，但 CPU 仍然是数据调度、系统控制和推理任务的基本基础。<strong>CPU 和内存芯片之间有什么区别？</strong></p>
</div><p>Within the semiconductor industry chain, CPUs and memory chips represent two distinctly different underlying logics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在半导体产业链中，CPU 和内存芯片代表着两种截然不同的基础逻辑。</p>
</div><p>Functionally, the CPU is a &#34;computing resource,&#34; whereas memory is a &#34;capacity resource.&#34; The CPU handles instruction execution and data processing, serving as the direct manifestation of computing power, while memory is used to host data, essentially acting as a storage medium for information.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>功能上，CPU 是&#34;计算资源&#34;，而内存是&#34;容量资源&#34;。CPU 处理指令执行和数据处理，直接体现计算能力，而内存用于存储数据，基本上充当信息的存储介质。</p>
</div><p>In terms of operational mechanisms, the CPU possesses high active control capabilities, with its value reflected in its continuous calculation and scheduling abilities, similar to a &#34;production engine.&#34; In contrast, memory generates value only when invoked, behaving more like an &#34;inventory asset.&#34; In other words, the CPU creates computing power output while memory provides data supply, together forming the fundamental &#34;computing power-data&#34; closed-loop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在操作机制上，CPU 具有高主动控制能力，其价值体现在持续的计算和调度能力上，类似于&#34;生产引擎&#34;。相比之下，内存只有在被调用时才会产生价值，更像是&#34;库存资产&#34;。换句话说，CPU 创造计算能力输出，而内存提供数据供应，两者共同形成基本的&#34;计算能力 - 数据&#34;闭环。</p>
</div><p>Regarding product attributes, CPUs are highly differentiated products. Their performance depends on architectural design, manufacturing processes, and ecosystems (such as instruction sets and software compatibility). Due to extremely high technical barriers, the market has long been dominated by a few manufacturers, exhibiting clear oligopolistic characteristics. Therefore, CPU pricing tends to reflect the &#34;interplay between technology and supply-demand,&#34; demonstrating strong resilience to cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于产品属性，CPU 是高度差异化的产品。其性能依赖于架构设计、制造工艺和生态系统（如指令集和软件兼容性）。由于技术壁垒极高，市场长期以来由少数制造商主导，表现出明显的寡头特征。因此，CPU 定价往往反映&#34;技术与供需之间的相互作用&#34;，对周期表现出强大的韧性。</p>
</div><p>In contrast, memory displays stronger standardization and homogenization. Whether it is DRAM or NAND, product differentiation is minimal, with competition centered on cost and capacity expansion. This makes memory prices highly sensitive to supply-demand dynamics; any capacity contraction or demand explosion can lead to sharp cyclical price swings, or even trigger a &#34;super-cycle&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，内存则表现出更强的标准化和同质化。无论是 DRAM 还是 NAND，产品差异化极小，竞争主要集中在成本和容量扩展上。这使得内存价格对供需动态高度敏感；任何容量收缩或需求爆发都可能导致价格剧烈波动，甚至引发&#34;超级周期&#34;。</p>
</div><h2>Will CPU prices continue to rise?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>CPU 价格会继续上涨吗？</h2>
</div><p>Based on current data, CPUs have indeed entered an upward cycle, but their trajectory differs fundamentally from that of memory chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据当前数据，CPU 确实进入了上升周期，但其轨迹与内存芯片根本不同。</p>
</div><p>In the short term, CPU prices are expected to continue their upward trend. The supply-demand imbalance may intensify further in the second quarter of 2026, leaving room for further expansion in price increases. However, from a medium-to-long-term perspective, CPUs are unlikely to experience extreme market conditions similar to the &#34;fourfold surge&#34; seen in the memory market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期内，CPU 价格预计将继续上涨。供需失衡可能在 2026 年第二季度进一步加剧，为价格上涨提供进一步扩张的空间。然而，从中长期来看，CPU 不太可能经历类似于内存市场的&#34;四倍激增&#34;的极端市场条件。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Surging prices have suppressed a portion of private-sector demand.</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>价格飙升抑制了部分私营部门需求。</strong></h3>
</div><p>CPU prices are constrained by demand for complete systems. The PC and server markets exhibit significant price elasticity, where excessively high prices directly suppress shipment volumes—a trend already reflected in the sales decline reported by Amazon in early 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CPU 价格受到完整系统需求的制约。PC 和服务器市场表现出显著的价格弹性，过高的价格直接抑制出货量——这一趋势已在亚马逊 2026 年初报告的销售下降中反映出来。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260327/amzn-sales-cpu-de19a2e0f02042c58c02d6ef2e4b9268.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260327/amzn-sales-cpu-de19a2e0f02042c58c02d6ef2e4b9268.jpg"/></p>
<p>[Monthly Aggregate Sales Data, Source: 3DCenter]</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[月度汇总销售数据，来源：3DCenter]</p>
</div><p>It is estimated that Amazon sold approximately 26,100 CPU units in January 2026, a decrease of nearly 40,000 units compared to the same period last year. Sales in December 2025 were approximately 44,000 units, nearly 40,000 fewer than in December 2024. Statistics show that Amazon's inventory-to-sales ratio fell by 47% between December last year and February this year compared to the same period a year ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计亚马逊在 2026 年 1 月售出了约 26,100 个 CPU 单元，比去年同期减少了近 40,000 个。2025 年 12 月的销售约为 44,000 个，比 2024 年 12 月减少了近 40,000 个。统计数据显示，亚马逊的库存周转率在去年 12 月至今年 2 月之间下降了 47%。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Alternative technologies related to CPUs are on the rise.</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>与 CPU 相关的替代技术正在崛起。</strong></h3>
</div><p>A previous article from Tom's Hardware pointed out that the ARM architecture and custom silicon (such as CPUs developed in-house by cloud providers) are eroding the x86 market, which will limit the upside for price increases. Since Microsoft aggressively promoted Copilot+ PCs powered by Snapdragon processors in 2024, Arm-based devices have been steadily entering the market. Furthermore, Qualcomm is even taking steps to enhance the Windows gaming experience on Arm, while Nvidia's N1X processor is expected to be featured in laptops later this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《汤姆硬件》之前的一篇文章指出，ARM 架构和定制硅（如云服务提供商自主开发的 CPU）正在侵蚀 x86 市场，这将限制价格上涨的空间。自从微软在 2024 年大力推广搭载 Snapdragon 处理器的 Copilot+ PC 以来，基于 Arm 的设备稳步进入市场。此外，高通甚至采取措施提升 Arm 上的 Windows 游戏体验，而 Nvidia 的 N1X 处理器预计将在今年晚些时候出现在笔记本电脑中。</p>
</div><p>This poses a major threat to x86 systems, prompting Intel and AMD to join forces to defend the architecture's market position. However, if these two companies cannot meet the market demand for their processors, consumers may have no choice but to turn to alternative CPU products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对 x86 系统构成了重大威胁，促使英特尔和 AMD 联手捍卫该架构的市场地位。然而，如果这两家公司无法满足市场对其处理器的需求，消费者可能别无选择，只能转向替代的 CPU 产品。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Elon Musk recently disclosed plans to build a &#34;Terafab&#34; chip factory. Although the project is still in the planning stages and is unlikely to meet market demand in the short term, analyst Andrew Percoco estimates that the actual cost of Terafab could reach $35 billion to $40 billion; even in an optimistic scenario, chips would not roll off the line until 2028 at the earliest. Nevertheless, in the long run, future chip supply shortages are expected to be significantly alleviated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，埃隆·马斯克最近披露了建设 &#34;Terafab&#34; 芯片工厂的计划。尽管该项目仍处于规划阶段，短期内不太可能满足市场需求，但分析师安德鲁·佩尔科科估计，Terafab 的实际成本可能达到 350 亿到 400 亿美元；即使在乐观的情况下，芯片也最早要到 2028 年才能投产。然而，从长远来看，未来的芯片供应短缺预计将显著缓解。</p>
</div><p>The fab expansion cycle is now underway. Despite short-term supply tightness, the supply-demand relationship for CPUs is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 as advanced nodes gradually release capacity. Intel previously stated that supply pressure is expected to peak at the end of March; as capacity shifts toward servers and mid-to-high-end products, supply conditions are expected to improve gradually over the coming quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>晶圆厂扩张周期现已开始。尽管短期内供应紧张，但预计到 2026 年下半年，随着先进节点逐步释放产能，CPU 的供需关系将会缓解。英特尔此前表示，供应压力预计将在 3 月底达到峰值；随着产能向服务器和中高端产品转移，供应状况预计将在未来几个季度逐步改善。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, CPUs are more likely to exhibit a &#34;moderate uptrend&#34; rather than an &#34;exponential surge.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，CPU 更可能表现出 &#34;适度上升趋势&#34; 而非 &#34;指数级激增&#34;。</p>
</div><p>Overall, the pricing logic of the CPU market is shifting from traditional &#34;consumer electronics components&#34; toward &#34;infrastructure assets&#34; similar to electricity and computing resources. Prices are no longer determined solely by PC demand but are instead dominated by the AI computing investment cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，CPU 市场的定价逻辑正在从传统的 &#34;消费电子组件&#34; 向类似于电力和计算资源的 &#34;基础设施资产&#34; 转变。价格不再仅仅由 PC 需求决定，而是受到 AI 计算投资周期的主导。</p>
</div><p>This means that CPUs will not simply replicate the explosive growth path of memory chips, yet their strategic importance is rising significantly. In the coming years, CPU price fluctuations will increasingly depend on AI capital expenditures, the pace of data center construction, and the supply capacity of advanced manufacturing processes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着 CPU 不会简单地复制内存芯片的爆炸性增长路径，但其战略重要性正在显著上升。在未来几年，CPU 价格波动将越来越依赖于 AI 资本支出、数据中心建设的进度以及先进制造工艺的供应能力。</p>
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Will CPUs Become the Next Memory Chip to See Prices Skyrocket in 2026?

- CPU 市场将迎来 10% 至 15% 的涨价，影响服务器与消费产品。  
- 英特尔与 AMD 已通知客户从 4 月起将提高整体处理器价格。  
- 预计 2026 年第二季度供需失衡将加剧，未来涨价空间仍存。

CPU 会在 2026 年成为下一个价格飙升的内存芯片吗？