<p>如果你拥有 401(k) 或个人退休账户（IRA），你可能直接或通过共同基金或交易所交易基金（ETF）持有一些 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 1.45%）的股票。因此，几乎每个人都有理由关注苹果的表现，因为其不佳的表现可能会让你损失金钱。</p><p>那么，让我们探讨一下为什么苹果可能会表现不如其大型科技同行，以及投资者可以如何做好准备。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/7781f732ba6a797c20a0a7ada63cc3c7?x-oss-process=style/lg" width="1200" height="800" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/7781f732ba6a797c20a0a7ada63cc3c7"/></figure><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p><h2 id="uyidp76fe">对苹果地位的威胁</h2><p>首先，我们必须讨论即将来临的风暴云。简而言之，苹果面临三个主要挑战：</p><ul><li>一款老化的标志性产品</li><li>竞争加剧</li><li>全球监管、供应和贸易阻力</li></ul><p>展开</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/0053296b4c38aea2f1f918001402361f?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="苹果股票报价" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/0053296b4c38aea2f1f918001402361f"/></figure><h2 id="skqul869p">NASDAQ: AAPL</h2><p>苹果</p><p>今日变动</p><p>(-1.45%) $-3.66</p><p>当前价格</p><p>$249.23</p><h3 id="ay2fx332h">关键数据点</h3><p>市值</p><p>$3.7 万亿</p><p>日内区间</p><p>$248.08 - $255.45</p><p>52 周区间</p><p>$169.21 - $288.62</p><p>成交量</p><p>290 万</p><p>平均成交量</p><p>4700 万</p><p>毛利率</p><p>47.33%</p><p>股息收益率</p><p>0.42%</p><p>让我们先从其老化的标志性产品——iPhone 开始。明年将是 iPhone 发布 20 周年。当它推出时，iPhone 是革命性的。但 20 年后，每一代 iPhone 都不如前一代吸引人。简单来说，iPhone 市场已经饱和。公司现在越来越依赖提价来实现增长。由于 iPhone 仍占苹果约 50% 的收入，这一点至关重要。</p><p>然后是竞争。虽然苹果在美国市场仍然是王者，市场份额约为 60%，但在中国情况就不同了。在那里，苹果的市场份额约为 25%，而 <strong>华为</strong>、<strong>Vivo</strong> 和 <strong>小米</strong> 等竞争对手分割了剩余的市场。如果苹果在中国的市场份额恶化，可能会给苹果股票带来麻烦。</p><p>最后是监管和贸易风险。苹果最大的亮点是其高利润的服务部门，包括其 App Store。然而，全球监管机构已将目光锁定在 App Store 上，威胁到苹果最好的催化剂。欧洲监管机构已迫使苹果允许其他应用商店在其设备上运营；美国司法部正在以反垄断理由起诉苹果。</p><p>更重要的是，苹果的供应链面临的整体威胁以及关税带来的风险。苹果拥有庞大的海外制造设施和供应商，如果与中国的贸易战持续升温，可能会成为受害者。</p><h2 id="y8cuiih5k">苹果股票的变化性质</h2><p>这并不意味着 苹果的股票 会崩盘。然而，投资者可能需要重新调整他们的预期。苹果作为领先的成长股的时代已经过去。它现在正在转型为_价值_股，尽管它仍然以_成长_股的价格进行交易。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/f5c87074a26d20a558cb0d7e5ec945e5?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="AAPL 市盈率图表" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/f5c87074a26d20a558cb0d7e5ec945e5"/></figure><p>AAPL 市盈率 数据来自 YCharts</p><p>以苹果的 市盈率（P/E） 为例。苹果的市盈率为 31。这远高于其 10 年平均值 25，尽管公司的 稀释每股收益（EPS） 在过去十年中平均增长约 16%。同样，苹果的收入增长在过去 10 年中徘徊在 7% 左右，尽管在最近几个季度有所上升——主要是由于服务和 关税推动的 iPhone 抢购。</p><p>再说一次，这些数字并不是灾难性的，但它们表明这是一家在 大型科技股 中落后的公司——在这里，由于人工智能（AI）应用的兴起，高增长率和丰厚的利润率已成为常态。</p><h2 id="1v8jrsjjm">如何保护自己</h2><p>那么，投资者该怎么办？</p><p>投资者的一条前进道路是逐步将部分资金从苹果重新部署到其他更具创新性的 “七大奇迹” 股票中。<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 目前的收入增长为 24%；<strong>Alphabet</strong> 在最近一个季度的稀释每股收益增长为 30%。此外，<strong>Nvidia</strong> 凭借其一流的 AI 芯片，不仅是新的硬件股票之王——它还是全球市值最大的公司，去年超越了苹果。所有这些公司都将从 AI 驱动的创新中受益匪浅。</p><p>对于其他投资者来说，最好是完全将资金从七大奇迹中重新部署——也许通过削减苹果的持仓并增加一些 <strong>Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight ETF</strong>，或者像 <strong>消费品选择行业 SPDR 基金</strong> 这样的防御性投资。</p><p>无论如何，持有大量苹果股票的投资者不必惊慌。该股票并不处于即将崩溃的边缘。然而，我确实认为苹果在未来几年面临严重挑战——这就是为什么投资者应该为苹果在未来四年成为表现最差的七大奇迹股票做好准备。</p>

AAPX

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

<p>预计到 2030 年，苹果将成为 “七大巨头” 中表现最差的股票，这主要是由于对老化 iPhone 的依赖、竞争加剧以及全球监管挑战。iPhone 约占其收入的 50%，市场饱和以及来自华为等品牌的竞争威胁其市场地位，尤其是在中国。对其 App Store 的监管审查和供应链风险进一步复杂化了其前景。建议投资者考虑将资金重新分配到更具创新性的股票或 ETF，因为苹果正从成长型股票转向价值型股票</p>

<p>If you have a 401(k) or an individual retirement account (IRA), you probably own some <strong>Apple</strong>( AAPL 1.45%) stock -- either directly or through ownership of a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF). Therefore, just about everyone has a reason to be concerned about Apple's performance, because its poor performance could cost you money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你拥有 401(k) 或个人退休账户（IRA），你可能直接或通过共同基金或交易所交易基金（ETF）持有一些 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 1.45%）的股票。因此，几乎每个人都有理由关注苹果的表现，因为其不佳的表现可能会让你损失金钱。</p>
</div><p>So, let's explore why Apple is poised to underperform its big tech peers and what investors can do to prepare themselves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，让我们探讨一下为什么苹果可能会表现不如其大型科技同行，以及投资者可以如何做好准备。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NjE1MzcvYXBwbGUtbG9nby1pbi1mcm9udC1vZi1pcGhvbmUtb24tYmxhY2stYmFjZ3JvdW5kLnBuZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="The Apple logo in front of a hand holding an iPhone on a black background." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F861537%2Fapple-logo-in-front-of-iphone-on-black-bacground.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>The threats to Apple's standing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对苹果地位的威胁</h2>
</div><p>First, we must cover the storm clouds on the horizon. In a nutshell, Apple is facing three key challenges:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，我们必须讨论即将来临的风暴云。简而言之，苹果面临三个主要挑战：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>An aging signature product</li>
<li>Increasing competition</li>
<li>Global regulatory, supply, and trade headwinds</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>一款老化的标志性产品</li>
<li>竞争加剧</li>
<li>全球监管、供应和贸易阻力</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FBUEwucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Apple Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FAAPL.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: AAPL</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: AAPL</h2>
</div><p>Apple</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(-1.45%) $-3.66</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-1.45%) $-3.66</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$249.23</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$249.23</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$3.7T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$3.7 万亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$248.08 - $255.45</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$248.08 - $255.45</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$169.21 - $288.62</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$169.21 - $288.62</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>2.9M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>290 万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>47M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4700 万</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>47.33%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>47.33%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.42%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.42%</p>
</div><p>Let's start with its aging signature product: the iPhone. Next year will mark the 20th anniversary of the iPhone. When it was launched, the iPhone was revolutionary. But 20 years on, each successive iPhone is less compelling than the last. Simply put, the iPhone market is saturated. The company now increasingly relies on price hikes for growth. And since iPhones still account for about 50% of Apple's revenue, that matters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们先从其老化的标志性产品——iPhone 开始。明年将是 iPhone 发布 20 周年。当它推出时，iPhone 是革命性的。但 20 年后，每一代 iPhone 都不如前一代吸引人。简单来说，iPhone 市场已经饱和。公司现在越来越依赖提价来实现增长。由于 iPhone 仍占苹果约 50% 的收入，这一点至关重要。</p>
</div><p>Then there's the competition. While Apple is still king of the U.S. market, with approximately 60% market share, China is another story. There, Apple holds about 25% market share, with competitors like Huawei, <strong>Vivo</strong>, and <strong>Xiaomi</strong> splitting much of the remaining market. If Apple's market share in China were to deteriorate, it could spell trouble for Apple stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后是竞争。虽然苹果在美国市场仍然是王者，市场份额约为 60%，但在中国情况就不同了。在那里，苹果的市场份额约为 25%，而 <strong>华为</strong>、<strong>Vivo</strong> 和 <strong>小米</strong> 等竞争对手分割了剩余的市场。如果苹果在中国的市场份额恶化，可能会给苹果股票带来麻烦。</p>
</div><p>Last, there are the regulatory and trade risks. Apple's biggest bright spot is its high-margin services segment, which includes its App Store. However, global regulators have zeroed in on the App Store, threatening to derail Apple's best catalyst. European regulators have forced Apple to allow alternative app stores to operate on its devices; the U.S. Department of Justice is suing Apple on antitrust grounds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后是监管和贸易风险。苹果最大的亮点是其高利润的服务部门，包括其 App Store。然而，全球监管机构已将目光锁定在 App Store 上，威胁到苹果最好的催化剂。欧洲监管机构已迫使苹果允许其他应用商店在其设备上运营；美国司法部正在以反垄断理由起诉苹果。</p>
</div><p>What's more, there are the overarching threats to Apple's supply chain and the perils caused by tariffs. Apple, with massive offshore manufacturing facilities and suppliers, could become a casualty if the simmering trade war with China were to boil over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，苹果的供应链面临的整体威胁以及关税带来的风险。苹果拥有庞大的海外制造设施和供应商，如果与中国的贸易战持续升温，可能会成为受害者。</p>
</div><h2>The changing nature of Apple stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果股票的变化性质</h2>
</div><p>None of this means Apple's stock is going to fall off a cliff. However, investors may need to recalibrate their expectations. Gone are the days when Apple was a leading growth stock. It's now transitioning to a <em>value</em> stock, although it is still priced like a <em>growth</em> stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不意味着 苹果的股票 会崩盘。然而，投资者可能需要重新调整他们的预期。苹果作为领先的成长股的时代已经过去。它现在正在转型为_价值_股，尽管它仍然以_成长_股的价格进行交易。</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率 数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Take Apple's price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, for example. Apple's P/E ratio stands at 31. That's well above its 10-year average of 25, even though the company's diluted earnings-per-share (EPS) growth has averaged about 16% over the last decade. Similarly, Apple's revenue growth has hovered around 7% for 10 years, even though it ticked up in recent quarters -- mainly due to services and tariff-fueled iPhone panic-buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以苹果的 市盈率（P/E） 为例。苹果的市盈率为 31。这远高于其 10 年平均值 25，尽管公司的 稀释每股收益（EPS） 在过去十年中平均增长约 16%。同样，苹果的收入增长在过去 10 年中徘徊在 7% 左右，尽管在最近几个季度有所上升——主要是由于服务和 关税推动的 iPhone 抢购。</p>
</div><p>Again, these figures aren't catastrophic, but they are indicative of a company that is falling behind in the world of big tech stocks -- where high growth rates and fat margins are the norm thanks to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再说一次，这些数字并不是灾难性的，但它们表明这是一家在 大型科技股 中落后的公司——在这里，由于人工智能（AI）应用的兴起，高增长率和丰厚的利润率已成为常态。</p>
</div><h2>How to protect yourself</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如何保护自己</h2>
</div><p>So, what's an investor to do?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，投资者该怎么办？</p>
</div><p>One path forward for investors is to slowly redeploy some capital from Apple into other, more innovative &#34; Magnificent Seven&#34; stocks. <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> currently boasts revenue growth of 24%; <strong>Alphabet</strong> has grown diluted EPS at 30% in its most recent quarter. Moreover, <strong>Nvidia</strong>, with its best-in-class AI chips, is not only the new hardware stock king -- it's also the world's largest company by market cap, having unseated Apple last year. All of these companies stand to benefit immensely from AI-led innovation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者的一条前进道路是逐步将部分资金从苹果重新部署到其他更具创新性的 “七大奇迹” 股票中。<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 目前的收入增长为 24%；<strong>Alphabet</strong> 在最近一个季度的稀释每股收益增长为 30%。此外，<strong>Nvidia</strong> 凭借其一流的 AI 芯片，不仅是新的硬件股票之王——它还是全球市值最大的公司，去年超越了苹果。所有这些公司都将从 AI 驱动的创新中受益匪浅。</p>
</div><p>For other investors, it may be best to redeploy capital out of the Magnificent Seven altogether -- perhaps by trimming Apple and adding some <strong>Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight ETF</strong>, or a defensive play like the <strong>Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于其他投资者来说，最好是完全将资金从七大奇迹中重新部署——也许通过削减苹果的持仓并增加一些 <strong>Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight ETF</strong>，或者像 <strong>消费品选择行业 SPDR 基金</strong> 这样的防御性投资。</p>
</div><p>At any rate, investors with significant exposure to Apple shouldn't panic. The stock isn't poised for an imminent collapse. However, I do believe Apple faces serious challenges in the years ahead -- which is why investors should be prepared for Apple to be the worst-performing Magnificent Seven stock over the next four years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论如何，持有大量苹果股票的投资者不必惊慌。该股票并不处于即将崩溃的边缘。然而，我确实认为苹果在未来几年面临严重挑战——这就是为什么投资者应该为苹果在未来四年成为表现最差的七大奇迹股票做好准备。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Apple Will Be the Worst "Magnificent Seven" Stock to Own Between Now and 2030

- 苹果正面临三大挑战：老化的产品、竞争加剧以及监管风险。  
- 投资者需调整预期，苹果股价转向价值股，P/E 比率高于其 10 年均值。  
- 建议投资者考虑将部分资金转向更具创新性的股票，以应对未来挑战。

预测：苹果将在现在到 2030 年之间成为 “七大杰出” 股票中最不值得持有的一只