<ul>
<li>中东战争肆虐，做市商对承担风险犹豫不决</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>流动性紧缩加剧市场波动和剧烈价格波动</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>价差扩大，交易员难以找到愿意入市的买家</li>
</ul><p>作者：Yoruk Bahceli、Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss 和 Rae Wee</p><p>伦敦/纽约/新加坡，3 月 30 日（路透社）- 伊朗战争已引发金融市场混乱，令部分投资者和做市商不愿承担风险，使交易变得更加困难且成本更高——这是监管机构正密切关注的一种情形。</p><p>投资者和交易员表示，从美国国债到黄金再到货币，全球最大的市场无一幸免。在欧洲，目前主导债券交易的对冲基金本月迅速平仓多项押注，加剧了这些动态。投资者称，在过去四周里，由于做市商担心被困在可能迅速变得无利可图的大额头寸中，他们有时难以获得报价或执行交易。“当我们尝试交易时，交易所需的时间更长了。（做市商）希望我们更有耐心，将交易拆分成更小的规模，” GAMA Asset Management 首席投资官 Rajeev De Mello 表示。他补充称，做市商买入资产与卖出资产之间的价差已经扩大。“其后果是每个人都缩小了头寸规模。” 各种波动率指标已飙升至此前市场危机期间的水平，包括股票（标普 500 波动率指数 (.VIX)）、债券（.MOVE）、石油（.OVX）和黄金（.GVZ）。</p><p>即使在通常深度且流动性良好的政府债券市场也出现了裂痕。这一全球金融基石在通胀风险惊扰投资者之际遭受重创。摩根士丹利的数据显示，作为市场深度和交易成本关键衡量标准的新发两年期美国国债买卖价差在 3 月份较 2 月份水平扩大了约 27%，这表明交易商正在收取更高的风险溢价。</p><h3>期货市场之痛</h3><p>诚然，市场压力的最新症状在市场动荡时期并不少见，例如去年 4 月美国总统唐纳德·特朗普实施 “解放日” 关税期间以及 2020 年新冠疫情期间。</p><p>但本轮波动正值市场处于扩张情绪之际，当时投资者正顺应各类资产的狂飙行情，这表明如果战争拖延且流动性枯竭，可能会出现更深层次的修正。</p><p>在欧洲，短期利率期货市场的痛苦尤为明显，交易员迅速消化了央行大幅加息的预期。摩根士丹利欧洲、中东和非洲地区利率联合主管 Daniel Aksan 表示，流动性一度 “严重减弱”，仅为通常水平的 10%。</p><p>他表示：“（流动性匮乏、价格波动）让我想起了新冠疫情时期。”</p><p>三家欧洲金融监管机构周五表示，持续的地缘政治紧张局势（即中东战争）通过推高能源价格、潜在通胀压力和削弱经济增长，对全球金融格局构成重大风险。他们重申了关于波动对流动性的影响以及突然价格波动风险的警告。</p><p>保护底线 尽管到目前为止交易仍保持有序，但随着投资者急于降低风险并转向现金，买家正变得日益稀缺，转而令交易商犹豫不决。</p><p>经纪交易商 Mischler Financial 全球利率交易董事总经理 Tom di Galoma 在谈到美国国债市场时表示：“无论是卖方还是买方，公司都损失了太多资金，以至于因为缺乏参与者，流动性正遭受损害。” 尽管国债交易量激增，但分析师表示，其中部分交易是出于无奈而非选择。</p><p>摩根士丹利美国利率策略师 Eli Carter 表示：“买卖价差扩大意味着进行交易的成本更高，对入市交易的吸引力降低，但交易量依然很高的事实表明，其中部分交易属于平仓或止损。”</p><h3>欧洲对冲基金</h3><p>欧洲债券尤为剧烈的抛售也反映出对冲基金在市场承压时可能产生的影响，英国央行此前特别指出了这一风险，因为近年来对冲基金的足迹已迅速扩大。</p><p>根据 Tradeweb 2025 年的最新数据，目前在英国和欧元区政府债券市场中，对冲基金的交易量占比超过 50%。</p><p>虽然他们在债券市场的存在于行情良好时提供了流动性，但许多基金此前扎堆进入相同的交易，其中一些交易很快被证明是亏损的。</p><p>三位对冲基金投资人士表示，对冲基金因押注英国央行将降息而蒙受惨重损失。法国农业信贷银行欧洲政府债券交易主管 Bruno Benchimol 表示，他们在押注欧洲收益率曲线变陡以及假设意大利与德国国债收益率差距将保持狭窄的交易中也遭受了打击。Benchimol 补充说，由于他们都在同一时间平仓类似头寸，这迫使债券交易商扩大了买卖价差。摩根士丹利的 Aksan 指出，当对冲基金同时降低风险时，“会加剧波动性”。他表示，在其他时候，他们采取的头寸有助于平抑波动。</p><h3>坚守市场</h3><p>但即使客户减少了交易频率和规模，做市商仍面临着争取业务的压力。</p><p>野村证券资深外汇期权交易员 Sagar Sambrani 表示，大额订单的定价已较正常市场状况有所扩大，以反映市场风险。但 Sambrani 表示，“与直觉相反，小额订单的定价由于做市商更加努力地争取不断减少的客户流量，反而比常规情况下更紧。”</p><p>但有时这并不可行。全球套利基金 Aravali Asset Management 首席投资官 Mukesh Dave 表示，在对利率高度敏感的黄金市场，曾出现过做市商完全缺席的日子，表明他们不愿进行交易。</p><p>通常作为避险资产的黄金价格在本月暴跌，此前曾在 2025 年创下纪录性涨幅。</p><p>Dave 表示：“目前他们不想赚钱，也不想因为留在市场而亏钱。如果可以选择，他们根本不想留在市场。”</p>

标普 500 指数

芝加哥期权交易所

<ul>
<li>Market makers hesitant to take on risk as Middle East war rages</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>中东战争肆虐，做市商对承担风险犹豫不决</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>Liquidity crunch amplifies market volatility, wild price swings</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>流动性紧缩加剧市场波动和剧烈价格波动</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>Spreads widen, traders struggle to find willing buyers</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>价差扩大，交易员难以找到愿意入市的买家</li>
</ul></div><p>By Yoruk Bahceli, Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Rae Wee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Yoruk Bahceli、Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss 和 Rae Wee</p></div><p>LONDON/NEW YORK/SINGAPORE, March 30 (Reuters) - The war in Iran has sparked chaos across financial markets, leaving some investors and market makers reluctant to take on risk, making trading harder and costlier - a scenario regulators watch closely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦/纽约/新加坡，3 月 30 日（路透社）- 伊朗战争已引发金融市场混乱，令部分投资者和做市商不愿承担风险，使交易变得更加困难且成本更高——这是监管机构正密切关注的一种情形。</p></div><p>None of the world’s biggest markets, from U.S. Treasuries, to gold, to currencies have been spared, investors and traders said. In Europe, hedge funds, which now dominate bond trading, added to those dynamics as they rapidly unwound a number of bets this month. Investors say they have at times struggled to get prices, or execute trades over the past four weeks, as market makers fear being stuck with large positions that could quickly become unprofitable. “When we try to trade, it takes longer to trade. (The market makers) want us to be more patient, cut the trades into smaller sizes,” Rajeev De Mello, chief investment officer at GAMA Asset Management, said, adding gaps had widened between the price at which market makers would buy an asset and at which they would sell it. “What that has as a consequence is that everybody’s reduced the sizes of their positions.” Various measures of volatility have soared to levels seen in previous market crises, including those for stocks (.VIX) , bonds (.MOVE) , oil (.OVX) and gold (.GVZ) .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者和交易员表示，从美国国债到黄金再到货币，全球最大的市场无一幸免。在欧洲，目前主导债券交易的对冲基金本月迅速平仓多项押注，加剧了这些动态。投资者称，在过去四周里，由于做市商担心被困在可能迅速变得无利可图的大额头寸中，他们有时难以获得报价或执行交易。“当我们尝试交易时，交易所需的时间更长了。（做市商）希望我们更有耐心，将交易拆分成更小的规模，” GAMA Asset Management 首席投资官 Rajeev De Mello 表示。他补充称，做市商买入资产与卖出资产之间的价差已经扩大。“其后果是每个人都缩小了头寸规模。” 各种波动率指标已飙升至此前市场危机期间的水平，包括股票（标普 500 波动率指数 (.VIX)）、债券（.MOVE）、石油（.OVX）和黄金（.GVZ）。</p></div><p>Cracks have emerged even in the usually deep and liquid government bond markets, a cornerstone of global finance that has been hit hard as inflation risks spook investors. The difference between bid and ask prices on newly issued two-year U.S. Treasuries, a key measure of market depth and transaction cost for the most widely traded securities, has meanwhile widened roughly 27% in March, compared with February levels, according to Morgan Stanley, suggesting dealers are charging a higher premium to take on risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在通常深度且流动性良好的政府债券市场也出现了裂痕。这一全球金融基石在通胀风险惊扰投资者之际遭受重创。摩根士丹利的数据显示，作为市场深度和交易成本关键衡量标准的新发两年期美国国债买卖价差在 3 月份较 2 月份水平扩大了约 27%，这表明交易商正在收取更高的风险溢价。</p></div><h3>PAIN IN FUTURES MARKET</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>期货市场之痛</h3></div><p>To be sure, the latest symptoms of market stress are not uncommon during bouts of market turmoil, such as during U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs last April and the 2020 COVID pandemic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>诚然，市场压力的最新症状在市场动荡时期并不少见，例如去年 4 月美国总统唐纳德·特朗普实施 “解放日” 关税期间以及 2020 年新冠疫情期间。</p></div><p>But this round of volatility has arrived at a time when markets had been in an expansive mood, as investors rode a runaway rally across asset classes, suggesting a deeper correction may materialise if the war drags on and liquidity evaporates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但本轮波动正值市场处于扩张情绪之际，当时投资者正顺应各类资产的狂飙行情，这表明如果战争拖延且流动性枯竭，可能会出现更深层次的修正。</p></div><p>In Europe, the pain has been particularly stark in the futures market for short-term interest rates, where traders rapidly priced steep central bank rate hikes. Liquidity became “severely diminished” at one point, operating at 10% of usual levels, Morgan Stanley’s co-head of EMEA rates Daniel Aksan said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在欧洲，短期利率期货市场的痛苦尤为明显，交易员迅速消化了央行大幅加息的预期。摩根士丹利欧洲、中东和非洲地区利率联合主管 Daniel Aksan 表示，流动性一度 “严重减弱”，仅为通常水平的 10%。</p></div><p>“The (illiquidity, price moves) reminded me of the COVID days,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示：“（流动性匮乏、价格波动）让我想起了新冠疫情时期。”</p></div><p>Three European financial regulators on Friday said ongoing geopolitical tensions, namely the war in the Middle East, pose significant risks to the global financial landscape through higher energy prices, potential inflationary pressures and weaker economic growth. They reiterated their warning about the impact of volatility on liquidity and the risk of sudden price swings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三家欧洲金融监管机构周五表示，持续的地缘政治紧张局势（即中东战争）通过推高能源价格、潜在通胀压力和削弱经济增长，对全球金融格局构成重大风险。他们重申了关于波动对流动性的影响以及突然价格波动风险的警告。</p></div><p>PROTECTING BOTTOM LINES Trading has thus far remained orderly, but buyers are becoming increasingly scarce as investors rush to de-risk and move into cash, leaving dealers hesitant in turn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>保护底线 尽管到目前为止交易仍保持有序，但随着投资者急于降低风险并转向现金，买家正变得日益稀缺，转而令交易商犹豫不决。</p></div><p>“Firms have lost so much money - whether it’s sell-side or buy-side - that liquidity is suffering because you don’t have the players,” said Tom di Galoma, managing director of global rates trading at broker-dealer Mischler Financial, referring to the U.S. Treasury market. While trading volumes in Treasuries have surged, analysts say some of these trades have been done out of necessity, not by choice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经纪交易商 Mischler Financial 全球利率交易董事总经理 Tom di Galoma 在谈到美国国债市场时表示：“无论是卖方还是买方，公司都损失了太多资金，以至于因为缺乏参与者，流动性正遭受损害。” 尽管国债交易量激增，但分析师表示，其中部分交易是出于无奈而非选择。</p></div><p>“With a wider bid-ask spread, it is more expensive to put on a trade and would be less attractive for people to enter into trades, but the fact that you still see really high volumes suggest that some of these trades were unwinds, or stop-outs,” said Morgan Stanley U.S. rates strategist Eli Carter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利美国利率策略师 Eli Carter 表示：“买卖价差扩大意味着进行交易的成本更高，对入市交易的吸引力降低，但交易量依然很高的事实表明，其中部分交易属于平仓或止损。”</p></div><h3>HEDGE FUNDS IN EUROPE</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>欧洲对冲基金</h3></div><p>The particularly sharp selloff in European bonds has also served as an example of the impact hedge funds may have on that market at times of stress, a risk the Bank of England in particular has flagged as their footprint has grown rapidly in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲债券尤为剧烈的抛售也反映出对冲基金在市场承压时可能产生的影响，英国央行此前特别指出了这一风险，因为近年来对冲基金的足迹已迅速扩大。</p></div><p>Hedge funds now make up over 50% of trading volumes in Britain’s and euro zone government bond markets, according to the latest Tradeweb data from 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Tradeweb 2025 年的最新数据，目前在英国和欧元区政府债券市场中，对冲基金的交易量占比超过 50%。</p></div><p>While their presence in the bond markets provides liquidity in good times, many had piled into the same trades, some of which quickly proved loss-making.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然他们在债券市场的存在于行情良好时提供了流动性，但许多基金此前扎堆进入相同的交易，其中一些交易很快被证明是亏损的。</p></div><p>Hedge funds took steep losses on betting the BoE would cut rates, three hedge fund investment sources said. They also took hits on trades that bet on steeper European yield curves and on trades that assumed the gap between Italian and German bond yields would stay narrow, Credit Agricole’s head of European government bond trading Bruno Benchimol said. As they all unwound similar positions at the same time, that pushed bond dealers to widen bid-ask spreads, Benchimol added. When hedge funds all de-risk at the same time “it exacerbates volatility,” said Morgan Stanley’s Aksan. At other times, they took positions that helped dampen volatility, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三位对冲基金投资人士表示，对冲基金因押注英国央行将降息而蒙受惨重损失。法国农业信贷银行欧洲政府债券交易主管 Bruno Benchimol 表示，他们在押注欧洲收益率曲线变陡以及假设意大利与德国国债收益率差距将保持狭窄的交易中也遭受了打击。Benchimol 补充说，由于他们都在同一时间平仓类似头寸，这迫使债券交易商扩大了买卖价差。摩根士丹利的 Aksan 指出，当对冲基金同时降低风险时，“会加剧波动性”。他表示，在其他时候，他们采取的头寸有助于平抑波动。</p></div><h3>STAYING IN THE MARKET</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>坚守市场</h3></div><p>But market makers still have pressure to win business even as clients reduce the frequency and size of trades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但即使客户减少了交易频率和规模，做市商仍面临着争取业务的压力。</p></div><p>Sagar Sambrani, a senior FX options trader at Nomura, said pricing for larger ticket orders had widened versus normal market conditions to account for market risk. But, “counter-intuitively, the pricing on smaller tickets is tighter than in regular conditions as market makers strive harder to capture the reducing client flows,” Sambrani said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>野村证券资深外汇期权交易员 Sagar Sambrani 表示，大额订单的定价已较正常市场状况有所扩大，以反映市场风险。但 Sambrani 表示，“与直觉相反，小额订单的定价由于做市商更加努力地争取不断减少的客户流量，反而比常规情况下更紧。”</p></div><p>But sometimes this is not possible. In the gold market, which is highly sensitive to interest rates, Mukesh Dave, chief investment officer at Aravali Asset Management, a global arbitrage fund, said there were days when market makers were absent altogether, indicating an unwillingness to transact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但有时这并不可行。全球套利基金 Aravali Asset Management 首席投资官 Mukesh Dave 表示，在对利率高度敏感的黄金市场，曾出现过做市商完全缺席的日子，表明他们不愿进行交易。</p></div><p>The price of normally safe-haven gold plunged this month after a record rally in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常作为避险资产的黄金价格在本月暴跌，此前曾在 2025 年创下纪录性涨幅。</p></div><p>“They don’t want to make money at the moment, they don’t want to lose money by being in the market. If given a choice, they don’t want to be in the market,” Dave said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Dave 表示：“目前他们不想赚钱，也不想因为留在市场而亏钱。如果可以选择，他们根本不想留在市场。”</p></div>

ANALYSIS-Iran war volatility strains trading in world's biggest markets

- 中东战争导致金融市场动荡，市场参与者风险规避。  
- 流动性紧缩加剧，交易成本提高，买家越来越少。  
- 监管机构警告地缘政治风险影响全球金融环境。

分析：伊朗战争引发的波动性令全球最大市场的交易承压