<ul><li>油价飙升，布伦特原油因特朗普对伊朗冲突的言论上涨 5%</li></ul><ul><li>分析师警告称，持续战争可能破坏能源供应并导致滞胀风险</li></ul><ul><li>投资者转向避险资产，美元在市场波动中走强</li></ul><p>作者：Ankur Banerjee 和 Gregor Stuart Hunter</p><p>4 月 2 日（路透社）——特朗普总统威胁将伊朗炸回石器时代，这大大提高了正在进行到第五周的战争的风险，同时打击了投资者对迅速结束冲突的希望。该冲突已导致石油供应紧张并推高了通货膨胀。</p><p>周四，随着对伊朗的战争担忧加剧，全球市场动荡不安，股票和债券下滑，石油上涨，美元走强，特朗普让投资者对何时可能结束中东冲突的希望化为泡影。</p><p>特朗普表示，美国军队几乎完成了在伊朗的目标，但他未提供结束冲突的具体时间表。他表示，美国将在未来两到三周内继续打击伊朗的目标。</p><p>这些言论不足以让紧张的投资者相信中东冲突即将结束。</p><p>“我不认为讲话本身透露了太多信息，除了他们将在接下来的两到三周继续轰炸这一事实。” 新西兰奥克兰的 Electus Financial Ltd 董事 Mike Houlahan 说道。</p><p>“这将把解决时间进一步推迟，” 他说，“接下来的问题是，因为他延长了战期，确认预计还需两到三周，这是否会给燃料供应链增加压力？”</p><h3>投资者的重大失望</h3><p>投资者本周早些时候曾寄希望于特朗普的言论能结束冲突，这一预期提振了全球股票并令美元远离近期高点。但周四的讲话揭示了长期战争的现实。</p><p>这意味着在长周末即将到来之前，曾增加风险敞口的交易者迅速退出这些头寸。</p><p>石油供应中断及其对通胀的影响一直是金融市场的主要关注点，而特朗普周三的言论并未明确表示美国军事行动是否会在伊朗重新开放霍尔木兹海峡之前结束。</p><p>这一至关重要的水道由伊朗掌控，已经引发了历史上最严重的全球能源危机。特朗普讲话后，6 月布伦特原油合约（LCOc1）约上涨 5%，达到每桶 106.16 美元。</p><p>“由于没有计划重开他有效关闭的霍尔木兹海峡，油价将无限期保持高位，” Stonex 布里斯本高级市场分析师 Matt Simpson 表示，市场必须面对 “下一轮通胀”。</p><p>特朗普的讲话以及长期石油供应中断的预期可能会加剧市场对滞胀的担忧，这种高通胀与弱增长的毒性组合 3 月份曾扰乱市场，分析师表示。</p><p>日本可能会因伊朗战争面临滞胀风险，新任日本央行董事浅田统一郎周三表示，这将难以通过货币政策来应对。</p><p>“所有投资者都关心的关键问题是 ‘这何时会结束？’ 这正是引发行情波动的原因。” Vaneck 悉尼投资与资本市场主管 Russel Chesler 表示。</p><p>“我们现在面临的是一个滞胀局面的情况，增长率更低而通胀预期更高。”</p><p>周四在亚洲，美国国债收益率因市场担忧通胀会上升而攀升，这可能关闭任何宽松货币政策的门槛。特朗普讲话后，10 年期国债收益率（US10YT=TWEB）上涨 5 个基点至 4.376%。</p><p>尽管总体市场预计会在未来两到三周内因投资者紧密关注事态发展而保持波动，分析师预计近期内美国美元和石油将继续走高，而投资者则进入风险偏好周期中的避险模式。</p><p>美元（=USD）自冲突开始的二月末以来，受益于避险资产需求，在周四兑主要货币走高，扭转了连续两天的跌势。</p><p>“美元已经略微上涨……我认为鉴于我们对战争将至少延续至六月的预期，美元肯定还能进一步上涨，” 澳大利亚联邦银行货币策略师 Carol Kong 表示。</p><p>“要对战争结束感到乐观确实很困难，因为最终以色列和伊朗是战争中的其他两个主要参与方，不是仅仅美国。”</p>

美东时间周三晚9点，特朗普发表全国讲话，自称美军对伊朗战事取得“快速、决定性胜利”，并表示核心战略目标接近完成。他强调绝不会让伊朗拥有核武器，并称美军对伊朗核设施的打击取得“巨大成功”。关于霍尔木兹海峡，特朗普鼓动各国“自己负责”，并未给出明确开放时间表。中东局势升温，市场神经紧绷，接下来几周美军或将加大火力打击。美伊冲突是否会如特朗普所愿快速结束？能源市场将如何演变？

<p>美东时间周三晚9点，特朗普发表全国讲话，自称美军对伊朗战事取得“快速、决定性胜利”，并表示核心战略目标接近完成。他强调绝不会让伊朗拥有核武器，并称美军对伊朗核设施的打击取得“巨大成功”。关于霍尔木兹海峡，特朗普鼓动各国“自己负责”，并未给出明确开放时间表。中东局势升温，市场神经紧绷，接下来几周美军或将加大火力打击。美伊冲突是否会如特朗普所愿快速结束？能源市场将如何演变？</p>

特朗普强硬表态，伊朗战事接近尾声了？

西方石油

和顺石油

纽蒙特矿业

<ul>
<li>Oil prices surge, Brent jumps 5% after Trump’s comments on Iran conflict</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>油价飙升，布伦特原油因特朗普对伊朗冲突的言论上涨 5%</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>Analysts warn of stagflation risks as prolonged war disrupts energy supply</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>分析师警告称，持续战争可能破坏能源供应并导致滞胀风险</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>Investors shift to safe-haven assets, dollar strengthens amid market volatility</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>投资者转向避险资产，美元在市场波动中走强</li>
</ul></div><p>By Ankur Banerjee and Gregor Stuart Hunter</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Ankur Banerjee 和 Gregor Stuart Hunter</p></div><p>April 2 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump’s threat to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age has sharply raised stakes in a war now in its fifth week and crushed investors’ hopes for a swift end to a conflict that is squeezing oil supplies and fanning inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4 月 2 日（路透社）——特朗普总统威胁将伊朗炸回石器时代，这大大提高了正在进行到第五周的战争的风险，同时打击了投资者对迅速结束冲突的希望。该冲突已导致石油供应紧张并推高了通货膨胀。</p></div><p>Global markets recoiled on Thursday as war jitters over Iran deepened, with stocks and bonds sliding, oil surging and the dollar firming after Trump dashed hopes for clarity on when the Middle East conflict might end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，随着对伊朗的战争担忧加剧，全球市场动荡不安，股票和债券下滑，石油上涨，美元走强，特朗普让投资者对何时可能结束中东冲突的希望化为泡影。</p></div><p>Trump said that the U.S. military had nearly accomplished its goals in Iran, but he did not offer a concrete timeline for winding down the conflict. He said the U.S. would continue to hit targets in Iran over the next two to three weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普表示，美国军队几乎完成了在伊朗的目标，但他未提供结束冲突的具体时间表。他表示，美国将在未来两到三周内继续打击伊朗的目标。</p></div><p>Those comments did little to convince jittery investors that an end to the Middle East conflict was close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些言论不足以让紧张的投资者相信中东冲突即将结束。</p></div><p>“I don’t think there was an awful lot in the speech per se, apart from the fact that they’re going to keep bombing for the next two to three weeks,” said Mike Houlahan, director of Electus Financial Ltd in Auckland.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我不认为讲话本身透露了太多信息，除了他们将在接下来的两到三周继续轰炸这一事实。” 新西兰奥克兰的 Electus Financial Ltd 董事 Mike Houlahan 说道。</p></div><p>“That pushes out the resolution timeframe farther,” he said. “The next question is because he’s extended it, confirmed it’s going to take another two to three weeks, does that put added pressure on the fuel supply chain?”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这将把解决时间进一步推迟，” 他说，“接下来的问题是，因为他延长了战期，确认预计还需两到三周，这是否会给燃料供应链增加压力？”</p></div><h3>BIG LETDOWN FOR INVESTORS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>投资者的重大失望</h3></div><p>Investors had pinned their hopes of an end to the conflict after comments from Trump earlier in the week, lifting global stocks and pushing the dollar off its recent highs but Thursday’s speech laid bare the reality of a long war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者本周早些时候曾寄希望于特朗普的言论能结束冲突，这一预期提振了全球股票并令美元远离近期高点。但周四的讲话揭示了长期战争的现实。</p></div><p>That meant traders who had been adding risk exposure were swiftly exiting those positions ahead of a long weekend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着在长周末即将到来之前，曾增加风险敞口的交易者迅速退出这些头寸。</p></div><p>Oil supply disruption and its impact on inflation have been a major concern for financial markets, and Trump’s comments on Wednesday were not clear about whether U.S. military operations could end even before Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>石油供应中断及其对通胀的影响一直是金融市场的主要关注点，而特朗普周三的言论并未明确表示美国军事行动是否会在伊朗重新开放霍尔木兹海峡之前结束。</p></div><p>That vital waterway on which the Islamic Republic has a chokehold has created the worst global energy shock in history. The Brent contract for June (LCOc1) jumped about 5% to $106.16 per barrel after Trump’s speech.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一至关重要的水道由伊朗掌控，已经引发了历史上最严重的全球能源危机。特朗普讲话后，6 月布伦特原油合约（LCOc1）约上涨 5%，达到每桶 106.16 美元。</p></div><p>“With no plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that he effectively closed, oil prices are to remain high indefinitely,” said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at Stonex in Brisbane, and markets will have to face “the next round of inflation”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“由于没有计划重开他有效关闭的霍尔木兹海峡，油价将无限期保持高位，” Stonex 布里斯本高级市场分析师 Matt Simpson 表示，市场必须面对 “下一轮通胀”。</p></div><p>Trump’s speech and prospects of prolonged disruption to oil supplies could add to market concerns over stagflation, the toxic mix of high inflation and weak growth that roiled markets in March, analysts said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普的讲话以及长期石油供应中断的预期可能会加剧市场对滞胀的担忧，这种高通胀与弱增长的毒性组合 3 月份曾扰乱市场，分析师表示。</p></div><p>Japan may face stagflation risks from the Iran war that would be challenging to deal with using monetary policy, new Bank of Japan board member Toichiro Asada said on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本可能会因伊朗战争面临滞胀风险，新任日本央行董事浅田统一郎周三表示，这将难以通过货币政策来应对。</p></div><p>“The key question in all investors’ minds is ‘when is this going to be over?’, that is what is creating the volatility,” said Russel Chesler, head of investments and capital markets at Vaneck in Sydney.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“所有投资者都关心的关键问题是 ‘这何时会结束？’ 这正是引发行情波动的原因。” Vaneck 悉尼投资与资本市场主管 Russel Chesler 表示。</p></div><p>“We are looking at a situation now where we are getting into a stagflation situation with lower growth and higher inflation expectations.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们现在面临的是一个滞胀局面的情况，增长率更低而通胀预期更高。”</p></div><p>Treasury yields rose in Asia on Thursday on concerns that higher inflation would close the door to any prospect of easier monetary policy. Yields on 10-year notes (US10YT=TWEB) climbed 5 basis points to 4.376% after Trump’s speech.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四在亚洲，美国国债收益率因市场担忧通胀会上升而攀升，这可能关闭任何宽松货币政策的门槛。特朗普讲话后，10 年期国债收益率（US10YT=TWEB）上涨 5 个基点至 4.376%。</p></div><p>While the overall markets are expected to remain volatile as investors keenly watch developments over the next two to three weeks, analysts expect the U.S. dollar and oil to move higher in the near-term, while investors go into risk-off mode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管总体市场预计会在未来两到三周内因投资者紧密关注事态发展而保持波动，分析师预计近期内美国美元和石油将继续走高，而投资者则进入风险偏好周期中的避险模式。</p></div><p>The dollar (=USD) , which has benefited from a rush to safe-haven assets since the conflict began in late February, advanced against major currencies on Thursday, reversing two days of losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元（=USD）自冲突开始的二月末以来，受益于避险资产需求，在周四兑主要货币走高，扭转了连续两天的跌势。</p></div><p>“The dollar has already edged a little bit higher … and I think given our expectations for the war to extend into at least June, the dollar can definitely increase further,” said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美元已经略微上涨……我认为鉴于我们对战争将至少延续至六月的预期，美元肯定还能进一步上涨，” 澳大利亚联邦银行货币策略师 Carol Kong 表示。</p></div><p>“It’s hard to feel optimistic about the end of the war for sure, because ultimately Israel and Iran are the two other parties to the war; it’s not just the U.S.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“要对战争结束感到乐观确实很困难，因为最终以色列和伊朗是战争中的其他两个主要参与方，不是仅仅美国。”</p></div>

Trump's fresh Iran threats give investors a risk-off reality check

- 布伦特原油因特朗普言论上涨 5%，市场担忧长期战争风险。  
- 投资者转向避险资产，美元在波动中走强，通胀预期加剧。  
- 分析师称，滞胀风险可能影响全球经济，战争前景不明。

特朗普对伊朗的新威胁让投资者重新审视风险偏好周期