<div id="readability-page-1"><div><p>In 2025 China’s economy hit a wall. While the GDP hit that steady 5.0% target as per the official 2025 data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), people were clutching their wallets. For the first time in years, the dining scene grew slower than general retail (3.2% vs 3.7%), hinting that folks were tightening their belts and skipping fancy dinners.</p><p> This macro backdrop hit Haidilao International Holding (Haidilao) right where it hurts. While the country saw sluggish growth, Haidilao’s revenue barely budged, up just 1.1%. The most telling stat? </p><p> It lost over 31 million customer visits as people swapped premium hotpot for cheaper eats. It’s clear: even the kings of service aren't immune to a nationwide &#34;belt-tightening&#34; trend. Unfortunately, the underlying numbers reveal a deeper financial sting.</p><h2> Drowning In the dip</h2><p> While Haidilao’s total FY 25 revenue edged up a tiny 1.1% y/y from 42.75 billion Chinese Yuan in FY 24 to CNY 43.23bn, net profit took a painful 14% y/y dive from CNY 4.70 bn to CNY 4.04bn—their first drop in three years. The real kicker? They lost over 31 million guest visits, a 7.5% y/y slump from ~415 million to ~383.9 million, and same-store sales slid by 6.7% y/y.</p><p> With the table turnover dipping from 4.1 to 3.9 times a day and per-customer spend flatlining with tiny 0.2% y/y bump to CNY 97.7 from CNY 97.5 in FY 24, the old hotpot magic is feeling the squeeze. </p><p> Raw material costs spiked 8.1% y/y to hit 40.5% of revenue. Not ready to give up, they shut or moved 85 self-operated spots while betting big on franchising with 66 new stores.</p><p> Under founder Zhang Yong, Haidilao is pivoting to the &#34;Pomegranate Plan,&#34; scaling more than 20 budget-friendly sub-brands to win back cautious spenders. They’re ditching heavy costs for an asset-light franchise model in lower-tier cities, using AI automation to slash labor expenses, and targeting 40–50 new international stores via its overseas arm Super Hi.</p><p> Well, given Haidilao’s beaten-down valuation, this turnaround is possibly what the market is waiting for. </p><h2> Bottoming out</h2><p> Haidilao’s stock performance is at HKD 14.82, the share price is down nearly 15.1% over the last year, sitting well below its 52-week high of HKD18.28. With a market cap of HKD 70.3bn (USD 10.2bn) it’s still a heavyweight, and the valuation looks relatively lower at a 15.1x PE ratio for 2026 earnings, especially compared to its three-year average of 16.7x.</p><p> The real solace for investors is the dividend yield, which is projected to climb from a solid 5.69% in 2025 to 6.27% by 2027. </p><p> Analysts seem to think the worst is over, too. Out of 39 pros covering the stock, 24 have a &#34;Buy&#34; rating, and the average target price of CNY 15.60 suggests a massive 23.6% upside from here. </p><h2> Losing steam</h2><p> Investing in Haidilao has been a spicy ride lately. They’re still the hot pot kings, but 2025 was rough. Even their legendary table turnover dipped below their own passing grade, an internal metric where Haidilao stops opening new stores if their table turnover falls below 4.0 times per day, of 4.0. </p><p> Under the Red Pomegranate Plan&#34; franchise model, it is closing dozens of stores and betting big on the franchisees. But if the latter plan fizzles, the brand’s reputation is toast. </p><p>With food prices and labor swallowing 33% of revenue, margins are feeling the squeeze.</p></div></div>

纳斯达克食品饮料 ETF - First Trust

海底捞

<p>海底捞国际控股面临挑战，因中国经济放缓，2025 财年的收入增长仅为 1.1%，净利润下降 14%。公司失去了超过 3100 万次顾客光临，促使其转向经济实惠的子品牌和特许经营模式。尽管股价下降了 15.1%，分析师们仍持乐观态度，39 名分析师中有 24 名推荐 “买入” 评级。该品牌的未来取决于其新战略在成本上升和利润率下降的背景下的成功</p>

火锅巨头海底捞面临冷酷的现实