<p>作者：朱尔斯·里默</p><p>自伊朗战争爆发以来，黄金的表现更像是其他风险资产</p><p>在上周触底后，黄金一直在与其他风险资产同步恢复，直到周三的总统演讲削弱了投资者信心</p><p>黄金从避险资产转变为反映更广泛市场情绪的过程在周四得到了进一步验证，金价大幅下跌。</p><p>伊朗战争逆转了黄金与地缘政治动荡之间的传统关系。随着中东冲突的爆发，黄金在三月份下跌了约 12%。更糟糕的是，特朗普总统对国家的讲话模糊不清且有时自相矛盾，导致市场在周四大幅波动，黄金与股票、加密货币及其他被视为风险资产的资产一起下跌。</p><p>在三月底触底至每盎司 4376 美元后，黄金（GC00）逐渐恢复，直到特朗普周三的演讲逆转了这一趋势。在周四的交易中，黄金下跌超过 3%，至每盎司 4657 美元。</p><p>有多种因素共同作用，解释了黄金行为特征的变化。其中最主要的是年初时黄金出现的巨大投机泡沫，当时黄金在一月底创下了每盎司 5626 美元的日内高点。巨大的杠杆效应积累起来，摩根士丹利的莉娜·托马斯周一发布的一份报告指出，认购期权需求达到了历史新高。</p><p>认购期权需求的快速上升推动黄金价格超出了摩根士丹利的预测。</p><p>当战争开始时，发生了显著的去杠杆化。此外，风险的显著去粗化也发生了，因此使用黄金多头头寸对冲 “七大奇迹” 股票 MAGS、软件 IGV 或比特币（BTCUSD）空头的交易者清算了他们的敞口。</p><p>黄金传统上与利率和美元 DXY 呈现负相关关系。随着三月份通胀预期的上升和避险需求使美元指数回升至 100 以上，这对黄金价格造成了压力，有效抵消了投资者所期望的典型避险特性。</p><p>然而，黄金下跌还有其他更近期的动机。例如，面临更高的能源进口账单，像土耳其这样的国家发现自己别无选择，只能出售一些黄金储备以支撑其货币。波兰中央银行是近年来最大的黄金战略买家之一，公开讨论出售黄金以增加国防开支。</p><p>在中东的石油美元国家，因在竞争激烈的霍尔木兹海峡出口石油而苦苦挣扎，因此缺乏美元来支付食品进口，可能也会被迫放弃黄金储备以支付账单。摩根士丹利的托马斯对此持怀疑态度，但承认这些说法在市场上流传。</p><p>摩根士丹利周一发布的报告重申了其对黄金作为通胀对冲/避险吸引力的信念，托马斯认为这种吸引力将逐渐重新显现。她和合著者达安·斯特鲁伊文指出，在过去五十年中，任何十二个月的时间里，当股票和债券的实际回报为负时，黄金和商品的实际回报为正。</p><p>在任何 12 个月的时间里，当股票和债券的实际回报为负时，商品或黄金的实际回报为正。</p><p>该报告维持了对 2026 年年底黄金价格目标 5400 美元的预期，强调目前投机性头寸较低，并且市场正在定价比历史先例更为鹰派的利率政策冲击。摩根士丹利与目前债券市场的共识相反，预计美联储今年将进行两次 25 个基点的降息（FF00）。</p><p>此外，摩根士丹利预测，中央银行的需求将继续成为支撑黄金价格的基本支柱，预计每月平均约 60 公吨，一旦价格波动减弱，这一中央银行需求本身，托马斯计算，价值 535 美元。</p><p>摩根士丹利的立场并非独特。瑞银的乔尼·特维斯周四发布的一份报告认为，“黄金延续牛市的风险在上升，较弱的增长触发财政和/或货币刺激对黄金构成上行风险。”</p><p>尽管将其年末预测从 5200 美元下调至 5000 美元，特维斯仍高于分析师共识的 4844 美元。</p><p>另请阅读：瑞银策略师表示，黄金的牛市可能接近尾声</p><p>-朱尔斯·里默</p><p>本文由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p><p>04-02-26 0510ET</p>

3 倍做多黄金矿业 ETN - MicroSectors

金矿小盘股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

紫金矿业

<p>黄金价格大幅下跌，表现得更像是风险资产，受到伊朗战争带来的地缘政治紧张局势的影响。在一场削弱投资者信心的总统演讲后，黄金价格下跌超过 3%，至每盎司 4,657 美元。影响这一变化的因素包括投机泡沫、去杠杆化，以及像土耳其这样的国家出售黄金储备以稳定货币。高盛维持对黄金的年末价格目标为 5,400 美元，认为低投机头寸和持续的中央银行需求是关键支撑。瑞银也认为，在经济增长疲软和刺激风险的背景下，黄金的牛市仍有继续的潜力</p>

<p>By Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：朱尔斯·里默</p>
</div><p>Since the outbreak of the Iranian war, gold has behaved more like any other risk-on asset</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自伊朗战争爆发以来，黄金的表现更像是其他风险资产</p>
</div><p>After troughing last week, gold had been recovering in line with other risk-on assets until Wednesday's presidential address undermined investor sentiment</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上周触底后，黄金一直在与其他风险资产同步恢复，直到周三的总统演讲削弱了投资者信心</p>
</div><p>Gold's switch from being a safe-haven asset to reflecting the broader market's mood was reinforced on Thursday, as the metal's price dropped sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金从避险资产转变为反映更广泛市场情绪的过程在周四得到了进一步验证，金价大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>The Iran war has reversed the traditional relationship of gold to geopolitical turbulence. With the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, gold fell around 12% in March. To compound matters, after an inconclusive and at times contradictory address to the nation from President Trump sent markets sprawling Thursday, gold declined along with equities, crypto and other assets considered risk-on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗战争逆转了黄金与地缘政治动荡之间的传统关系。随着中东冲突的爆发，黄金在三月份下跌了约 12%。更糟糕的是，特朗普总统对国家的讲话模糊不清且有时自相矛盾，导致市场在周四大幅波动，黄金与股票、加密货币及其他被视为风险资产的资产一起下跌。</p>
</div><p>Having troughed at $4,376 per ounce at the end of March, gold (GC00) had been recovering gradually until Trump's speech Wednesday reversed that trend. In Thursday trading gold fell over 3% to $4,657 per ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在三月底触底至每盎司 4376 美元后，黄金（GC00）逐渐恢复，直到特朗普周三的演讲逆转了这一趋势。在周四的交易中，黄金下跌超过 3%，至每盎司 4657 美元。</p>
</div><p>There is a combination of factors at work to explain the shift in gold's behavioral characteristics. Chief among them was the huge speculative froth that had developed in the earlier part of the year when gold recorded an intraday peak of $5,626 near the end of January. Immense leverage built up, and a note published by Goldman Sachs' Lina Thomas on Monday identified a rise in call option demand to all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有多种因素共同作用，解释了黄金行为特征的变化。其中最主要的是年初时黄金出现的巨大投机泡沫，当时黄金在一月底创下了每盎司 5626 美元的日内高点。巨大的杠杆效应积累起来，摩根士丹利的莉娜·托马斯周一发布的一份报告指出，认购期权需求达到了历史新高。</p>
</div><p>The rapid rise in call option demand drove gold prices to overshoot Goldman's forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>认购期权需求的快速上升推动黄金价格超出了摩根士丹利的预测。</p>
</div><p>When the war began then, a significant deleveraging took place. Moreover a significant de-grossing of risk also took place, so traders using long gold positions to hedge shorts in Magnificent Seven stocks MAGS, software IGV or bitcoin (BTCUSD), liquidated their exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当战争开始时，发生了显著的去杠杆化。此外，风险的显著去粗化也发生了，因此使用黄金多头头寸对冲 “七大奇迹” 股票 MAGS、软件 IGV 或比特币（BTCUSD）空头的交易者清算了他们的敞口。</p>
</div><p>Gold has traditionally demonstrated an inverse correlation with interest rates and the dollar DXY. As inflation expectations jumped in March and haven appeal lifted the dollar index back north of 100, this weighed on gold prices, effectively offsetting the typical flight-to-safety qualities investors expect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金传统上与利率和美元 DXY 呈现负相关关系。随着三月份通胀预期的上升和避险需求使美元指数回升至 100 以上，这对黄金价格造成了压力，有效抵消了投资者所期望的典型避险特性。</p>
</div><p>There are other more recent motivations behind gold's fall, however. Faced with higher energy import bills, countries like Turkey, for example, found themselves with no option but to sell some gold reserves to shore up its currency. Poland's central bank, one of the largest strategic buyers of gold in the last several years, openly discussed selling gold to fund increased defense spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，黄金下跌还有其他更近期的动机。例如，面临更高的能源进口账单，像土耳其这样的国家发现自己别无选择，只能出售一些黄金储备以支撑其货币。波兰中央银行是近年来最大的黄金战略买家之一，公开讨论出售黄金以增加国防开支。</p>
</div><p>Petrodollar states in the Middle East, struggling to export oil (BRN00) through the hotly-contested Strait of Hormuz and therefore running short of dollars to fund food imports, may also find themselves obliged to relinquish gold reserves to pay bills. Goldman's Thomas is skeptical of these claims but acknowledges they are circulating in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在中东的石油美元国家，因在竞争激烈的霍尔木兹海峡出口石油而苦苦挣扎，因此缺乏美元来支付食品进口，可能也会被迫放弃黄金储备以支付账单。摩根士丹利的托马斯对此持怀疑态度，但承认这些说法在市场上流传。</p>
</div><p>The Goldman Sachs note published Monday reasserted its belief in the inflation-hedging/ safe-haven allure of gold that Thomas thinks will gradually reassert itself. She and co-author Daan Struyven point out that during any twelve-month period in the last fifty years or so when stocks and bonds delivered negative real returns, then gold and commodities delivered positive real returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利周一发布的报告重申了其对黄金作为通胀对冲/避险吸引力的信念，托马斯认为这种吸引力将逐渐重新显现。她和合著者达安·斯特鲁伊文指出，在过去五十年中，任何十二个月的时间里，当股票和债券的实际回报为负时，黄金和商品的实际回报为正。</p>
</div><p>During any 12-month period when both stocks and bonds had negative real returns, either commodities or gold had positive real returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在任何 12 个月的时间里，当股票和债券的实际回报为负时，商品或黄金的实际回报为正。</p>
</div><p>The report maintained its year-end 2026 price target of $5,400 for gold, emphasizing that speculative positioning is now low and also that markets are pricing in a more hawkish, interest-rate policy shock than historical precedent suggests. Goldmans, contrary to bond market consensus at present, anticipates two 25 basis point rate cuts (FF00) from the Federal Reserve this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该报告维持了对 2026 年年底黄金价格目标 5400 美元的预期，强调目前投机性头寸较低，并且市场正在定价比历史先例更为鹰派的利率政策冲击。摩根士丹利与目前债券市场的共识相反，预计美联储今年将进行两次 25 个基点的降息（FF00）。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Goldman Sachs predicts that central bank demand will remain a fundamental pillar of support, averaging about 60 metric tons monthly, once price volatility dissipates. This central bank demand alone, Thomas, calculates, is worth $535 to the gold price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，摩根士丹利预测，中央银行的需求将继续成为支撑黄金价格的基本支柱，预计每月平均约 60 公吨，一旦价格波动减弱，这一中央银行需求本身，托马斯计算，价值 535 美元。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs' position is not unique. A report published Thursday by Joni Teves at UBS opines that &#34;the risk that gold extends its bull run for a couple more years is rising. Weaker growth that triggers fiscal and/or monetary stimulus presents upside risks for gold.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的立场并非独特。瑞银的乔尼·特维斯周四发布的一份报告认为，“黄金延续牛市的风险在上升，较弱的增长触发财政和/或货币刺激对黄金构成上行风险。”</p>
</div><p>While shaving her year-end forecast from $5,200 to $5,000, Teves stays just above the analyst consensus of $4,844.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管将其年末预测从 5200 美元下调至 5000 美元，特维斯仍高于分析师共识的 4844 美元。</p>
</div><p>Also read: Gold's bull run could be nearing its finish line, says UBS strategist</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另请阅读：瑞银策略师表示，黄金的牛市可能接近尾声</p>
</div><p>-Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-朱尔斯·里默</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>04-02-26 0510ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>04-02-26 0510ET</p>
</div>

Gold is again falling sharply, with the stock market. Why it's not behaving the way it used to during a crisis.

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黄金再次与股市一起大幅下跌。为什么它在危机期间的表现不像过去那样