<p>华盛顿，4 月 2 日（路透社）——随着裁员水平保持低位，美国上周首次申请失业救济人数有所下降，表明 3 月份劳动力市场状况保持稳定。然而，经济学家警告，中东地区持续的战争将带来下行风险。据美国劳工部周四发布的数据显示，截至 3 月 28 日的一周内，经季节性因素调整后，首次申请州失业救济人数减少 9,000 人，降至 202,000 人。路透社调查的经济学家预测最新一周的申请人数为 212,000 人。今年以来，申请人数在 201,000 至 230,000 区间波动，经济学家将其描述为 “低招聘、低裁员” 的劳动力市场。他们将劳动力市场的停滞归因于唐纳德·特朗普总统推动的强硬进口关税政策导致的不确定性。</p><p>非农私营部门就业岗位在截至 2 月份的三个月内平均每月仅增加了 18,000 个。经济学家指出，特朗普政府强硬的移民政策也减少了劳动力供应，从而妨碍了就业增长。美国与以色列对伊朗的持续交战则给企业带来了另一层不确定性。特朗普周三誓言将对伊朗实施更激烈的打击。据路透社的经济学家调查显示，3 月份就业增长可能反弹至 60,000 人，但一些人警告，由于冲突导致全球石油价格上涨超过 50%，这种反弹可能是暂时性的。本周全国零售汽油平均价格首次超过三年来的每加仑 4 美元。</p><p>部分由于医疗保健工人的罢工和恶劣天气，2 月份非农就业人数减少了 92,000 人。预计失业率将保持在 4.4%。</p><p>美国劳工统计局将于周五发布 3 月份的就业报告。耶稣受难日并不是美国的联邦假日。</p><p>“我们确实预计这场战争会延迟我们对今年劳动力市场适度改善的预期，因不确定性、消费者支出的放缓以及成本上升使企业暂停招聘，” 牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家南希·范登·霍顿表示。根据失业救济申请报告，截至 3 月 21 日的一周内，经季节性调整后，领取失业救济人数增加了 25,000 人，达到 184.1 万人。这一所谓的持续申请人数相比去年的高点有所下降，但失业救济资格在大多数州限于 26 周的政策可能令这一数字保持低位。劳动统计局本周数据显示，2 月份职位空缺数量比预期下降更多，招聘人数降至近六年来的最低水平。</p>

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<p>WASHINGTON, April 2 (Reuters) - New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell last week amid low layoffs, suggesting labor market conditions remained calm in March, though economists have warned that a prolonged war in the Middle East posed a downside risk. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ended March 28, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 212,000 claims for the latest week. Claims have moved in a 201,000-230,000 range this year, consistent with what economists describe as a “low hire, low fire” labor market. They have blamed the labor market stagnation on lingering uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump’s aggressive import tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华盛顿，4 月 2 日（路透社）——随着裁员水平保持低位，美国上周首次申请失业救济人数有所下降，表明 3 月份劳动力市场状况保持稳定。然而，经济学家警告，中东地区持续的战争将带来下行风险。据美国劳工部周四发布的数据显示，截至 3 月 28 日的一周内，经季节性因素调整后，首次申请州失业救济人数减少 9,000 人，降至 202,000 人。路透社调查的经济学家预测最新一周的申请人数为 212,000 人。今年以来，申请人数在 201,000 至 230,000 区间波动，经济学家将其描述为 “低招聘、低裁员” 的劳动力市场。他们将劳动力市场的停滞归因于唐纳德·特朗普总统推动的强硬进口关税政策导致的不确定性。</p></div><p>Private nonfarm payrolls have averaged growth of only 18,000 jobs per month in the three months through February. Reduced labor supply because of the Trump administration’s hard-line immigration policy was also hampering job growth, economists said. The month-long U.S.-Israel war with Iran has also added another layer of uncertainty for businesses. Trump on Wednesday vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran. Though job growth likely rebounded by 60,000 in March, according to a Reuters survey of economists, some warned the reversal could be temporary because of the conflict, which has sent global oil prices soaring more than 50%. The national average retail gasoline price this week topped $4 a gallon for the first time in more than three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>非农私营部门就业岗位在截至 2 月份的三个月内平均每月仅增加了 18,000 个。经济学家指出，特朗普政府强硬的移民政策也减少了劳动力供应，从而妨碍了就业增长。美国与以色列对伊朗的持续交战则给企业带来了另一层不确定性。特朗普周三誓言将对伊朗实施更激烈的打击。据路透社的经济学家调查显示，3 月份就业增长可能反弹至 60,000 人，但一些人警告，由于冲突导致全球石油价格上涨超过 50%，这种反弹可能是暂时性的。本周全国零售汽油平均价格首次超过三年来的每加仑 4 美元。</p></div><p>Nonfarm payrolls dropped by 92,000 jobs in February partly because of a strike by healthcare workers and harsh weather. The unemployment rate is forecast to have held steady at 4.4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>部分由于医疗保健工人的罢工和恶劣天气，2 月份非农就业人数减少了 92,000 人。预计失业率将保持在 4.4%。</p></div><p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release March’s employment report on Friday. Good Friday is not a federal holiday in the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国劳工统计局将于周五发布 3 月份的就业报告。耶稣受难日并不是美国的联邦假日。</p></div><p>“We do expect it (war) to delay the modest improvement we expected in the labor market this year, as uncertainty, a slowdown in consumer spending and rising costs cause businesses to put hiring on hold,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.841 million during the week ended March 21, the claims report showed. The so-called continuing claims have declined from last year’s lofty levels. But people exhausting their eligibility for benefits, limited to 26 weeks in most states, could be holding the number down. BLS data this week showed a larger-than-expected drop in job openings in February and hiring falling to the lowest level in nearly six years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们确实预计这场战争会延迟我们对今年劳动力市场适度改善的预期，因不确定性、消费者支出的放缓以及成本上升使企业暂停招聘，” 牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家南希·范登·霍顿表示。根据失业救济申请报告，截至 3 月 21 日的一周内，经季节性调整后，领取失业救济人数增加了 25,000 人，达到 184.1 万人。这一所谓的持续申请人数相比去年的高点有所下降，但失业救济资格在大多数州限于 26 周的政策可能令这一数字保持低位。劳动统计局本周数据显示，2 月份职位空缺数量比预期下降更多，招聘人数降至近六年来的最低水平。</p></div>

US weekly jobless claims fall as layoffs remain low

- 美国上周失业救济申请减少 9,000 至 202,000，显示劳动力市场稳定。  
- 经济学家警告，中东战争可能对就业增长构成风险。  
- 持续申请人数增至 1,841,000，招聘放缓和不确定性加剧。

美国每周首次申请失业救济人数下降，裁员水平保持低位