<p>（本文所表达的观点属于作者个人观点，其为路透社专栏作家）</p><p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p><p>伦敦，4 月 2 日（路透社）—金属交易员年初忧心的是铜供应危机，但第一季度结束时却面临迫在眉睫的铝供应危机。</p><p>伊朗战争已进入第五周，其浇灭了部分源自黄金和白银市场的投机狂潮，这股热潮在一月份涌入了伦敦金属交易所（LME）基本金属市场。</p><p>但这一局面已经将铝（CMAL3）推升至 2022 年以来的最高水平，两家海湾冶炼厂受到伊朗导弹袭击的破坏，霍尔木兹海峡的航运仍备受约束。</p><p>这一事实表明，锡与铝在第一季度的表现相当，即使能源价格飙升使需求前景黯淡，金属牛市投资者仍在观望。</p><h3>动荡的铝</h3><p>伊朗战争暴露了西方铝供应链的脆弱性。波斯湾约占全球冶炼能力的 9% 及全球除中国外出口量的 18%。</p><p>初始影响是物流紧张，由于霍尔木兹海峡的实际关闭而引发。卡塔尔冶炼厂 Qatalum 和巴林铝业（Alba）（ALBH.BH）均降低了运营速度以保留原材料库存。</p><p>随后是直接袭击。根据咨询公司 Wood Mackenzie 的数据，巴林铝业受到伊朗导弹袭击，目前只剩下 30% 的产能，而由阿联酋全球铝业公司运营的阿尔塔维拉冶炼厂由于其发电厂受损目前已完全停止生产。</p><p>这是一个无人预料的危机，其冲击波正沿着供应链传播。</p><p>西方铝买家正面临双重打击，即 LME 铝价的同步上涨以及实物升水的急剧攀升。</p><h3>追逐稀缺性叙事</h3><p>LME 铜（CMCU3）在一月份达到了每吨 14,527.50 美元的历史名义高点，投资者因其诱人的牛市论述即辉煌需求增长和供应受限而纷纷购买该金属。</p><p>然而，目前并不存在铜的短缺现象。全球交易所库存在三月底达到了 140 多万吨的多年高位。</p><p>不断增长的多余金属库存减弱了部分的看涨热情，LME 三个月铜（CMCU3）收盘价季度降至每吨 12,335.50 美元，较一月峰值低 15%，与年初几乎持平。</p><p>同样的模式也在锡（CMSN3）市场上显现，投资者因追逐供应稀缺的同样叙事，其价格在一月份跃升至每吨 59,040 美元的纪录高位。</p><p>然而，工业玩家纷纷向 LME 仓库交付金属。从年初以来，注册锡库存跃升了 60% 达到 8,675 吨，另外还有 2,951 吨存在于 LME 的无保证库存类别中。</p><p>值得注意的是，和铜一样，在 LME 锡价的价差结构中没有发现紧张迹象。这两种金属交易中都呈现宽幅价差，没有即刻的单位短缺。</p><p>镍和铅市场同样也不存在短缺危险。LME 的两种金属库存均较高且时间价差表现非常放松。</p><p>事实上，LME 铅库存已暴增至超过 50 万吨，这种重金属正路线变成铝之后的金属金融工具的选择。</p><p>锌仍是一个例外，镀锌金属依然不愿按熊市脚本表现。</p><p>LME 库存未能以任何有意义的方式恢复—库存比年初增加了仅 7,900 吨，而现货至三个月的时间价差（CMZN0-3）以每吨 5.00 美元的边际价差交易。</p><h3>第二轮影响</h3><p>随着进入第二季度，悬挂在 LME 基本金属上的大问题是伊朗战争对需求的影响是什么。</p><p>能源价格飙升对制造商和消费者均不利。</p><p>当然，这很大程度上取决于敌对行动持续的时间，这就是为什么金属在一月份成为头条新闻，而三月份则跟随新闻。</p><p>对铝来说，这场战争已经持续得太久，波斯湾关键生产资产的损失将在未来几个月内持续显现。</p><p>（本文所表达观点属于安迪·霍姆，路透社专栏作家）喜欢这篇文章？浏览路透社 Open Interest（ROI），您全球金融评论的新主要来源。在 LinkedIn 与 X 上关注 ROI，并在 Apple、Spotify 或路透社应用程序上收听每日播客 Morning Bid。订阅以便路透社记者每日七天讨论市场与金融的重大新闻。</p><p>2026 年第一季度 LME 金属相对价格表现</p><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/47D7y4x?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2554" height="1096" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/47D7y4x"/></p><p>海湾供应冲击下实物铝升水上涨</p><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4s7WnrW?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2542" height="1102" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4s7WnrW"/></p><p>全球交易所铜库存在三月突破 140 万吨</p><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/47GJdea?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1678" height="808" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/47GJdea"/></p><p>LME 铅库存突破五十万吨</p><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4bZs2pn?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1356" height="678" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4bZs2pn"/></p><p>（撰稿：安迪·霍姆；编辑：玛格丽塔·夏伊）</p><p>)</p>

美东时间周三晚9点，特朗普发表全国讲话，自称美军对伊朗战事取得“快速、决定性胜利”，并表示核心战略目标接近完成。他强调绝不会让伊朗拥有核武器，并称美军对伊朗核设施的打击取得“巨大成功”。关于霍尔木兹海峡，特朗普鼓动各国“自己负责”，并未给出明确开放时间表。中东局势升温，市场神经紧绷，接下来几周美军或将加大火力打击。美伊冲突是否会如特朗普所愿快速结束？能源市场将如何演变？

<p>美东时间周三晚9点，特朗普发表全国讲话，自称美军对伊朗战事取得“快速、决定性胜利”，并表示核心战略目标接近完成。他强调绝不会让伊朗拥有核武器，并称美军对伊朗核设施的打击取得“巨大成功”。关于霍尔木兹海峡，特朗普鼓动各国“自己负责”，并未给出明确开放时间表。中东局势升温，市场神经紧绷，接下来几周美军或将加大火力打击。美伊冲突是否会如特朗普所愿快速结束？能源市场将如何演变？</p>

特朗普强硬表态，伊朗战事接近尾声了？

中国铝业

江西铜业

<p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（本文所表达的观点属于作者个人观点，其为路透社专栏作家）</p></div><p>By Andy Home</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p></div><p>LONDON, April 2 (Reuters) - Metals traders started the year worrying about a looming supply crunch in copper but ended the first quarter facing a very imminent supply crisis in aluminium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦，4 月 2 日（路透社）—金属交易员年初忧心的是铜供应危机，但第一季度结束时却面临迫在眉睫的铝供应危机。</p></div><p>The Iran war, now in its fifth week, has dampened some of the speculative frenzy that spilled out of the gold and silver markets into the London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals complex in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗战争已进入第五周，其浇灭了部分源自黄金和白银市场的投机狂潮，这股热潮在一月份涌入了伦敦金属交易所（LME）基本金属市场。</p></div><p>But it has propelled aluminium (CMAL3) to its highest level since 2022 with two Gulf smelters damaged by Iranian missile strikes and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still severely constrained.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这一局面已经将铝（CMAL3）推升至 2022 年以来的最高水平，两家海湾冶炼厂受到伊朗导弹袭击的破坏，霍尔木兹海峡的航运仍备受约束。</p></div><p>The fact that tin matched aluminium’s first-quarter performance tells you that the metals bulls are still lurking in the wings even as surging energy prices darken the demand outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一事实表明，锡与铝在第一季度的表现相当，即使能源价格飙升使需求前景黯淡，金属牛市投资者仍在观望。</p></div><h3>EXPLOSIVE ALUMINIUM</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>动荡的铝</h3></div><p>The Iran war has exposed the fragility of the Western aluminium supply chain. The Gulf accounts for around 9% of world smelting capacity and 18% of global exports outside of China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗战争暴露了西方铝供应链的脆弱性。波斯湾约占全球冶炼能力的 9% 及全球除中国外出口量的 18%。</p></div><p>The initial impact was a logistics squeeze caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Both Qatari smelter Qatalum and Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) (ALBH.BH) reduced operating rates to preserve raw material stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>初始影响是物流紧张，由于霍尔木兹海峡的实际关闭而引发。卡塔尔冶炼厂 Qatalum 和巴林铝业（Alba）（ALBH.BH）均降低了运营速度以保留原材料库存。</p></div><p>Then came the direct strikes. Alba was targeted by Iranian missiles and is now down to 30% capacity, while the giant Al Taweelah smelter, operated by Emirates Global Aluminium, is completely out of action after damage to its power plant, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随后是直接袭击。根据咨询公司 Wood Mackenzie 的数据，巴林铝业受到伊朗导弹袭击，目前只剩下 30% 的产能，而由阿联酋全球铝业公司运营的阿尔塔维拉冶炼厂由于其发电厂受损目前已完全停止生产。</p></div><p>It’s a crisis that no one saw coming, and the shock waves are running down the supply chain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个无人预料的危机，其冲击波正沿着供应链传播。</p></div><p>Western aluminium buyers are facing a double blow from the simultaneous rise in the LME aluminium price and a sharp jump in physical premiums.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西方铝买家正面临双重打击，即 LME 铝价的同步上涨以及实物升水的急剧攀升。</p></div><h3>CHASING THE SCARCITY MEME</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>追逐稀缺性叙事</h3></div><p>LME copper (CMCU3) hit an all-time nominal high of $14,527.50 per metric ton in January as investors bought into the metal’s enticing bull narrative of stellar demand growth and constrained supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LME 铜（CMCU3）在一月份达到了每吨 14,527.50 美元的历史名义高点，投资者因其诱人的牛市论述即辉煌需求增长和供应受限而纷纷购买该金属。</p></div><p>There is, however, no shortage of copper in the here and now. Global exchange stocks closed March at just over 1.4 million metric tons, a multi-year high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，目前并不存在铜的短缺现象。全球交易所库存在三月底达到了 140 多万吨的多年高位。</p></div><p>The growing mountain of surplus metal has dampened some of the bullish fire and LME three-month copper (CMCU3) closed the quarter at $12,335.50 per ton, 15% below the January peak and pretty much flat on the start of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不断增长的多余金属库存减弱了部分的看涨热情，LME 三个月铜（CMCU3）收盘价季度降至每吨 12,335.50 美元，较一月峰值低 15%，与年初几乎持平。</p></div><p>The same pattern has played out in tin (CMSN3) , which leapt to a record high of $59,040 per ton in January as investors chased the same meme of supply scarcity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样的模式也在锡（CMSN3）市场上显现，投资者因追逐供应稀缺的同样叙事，其价格在一月份跃升至每吨 59,040 美元的纪录高位。</p></div><p>Here too, though, industrial players responded by delivering metal into LME warehouses. Registered tin stocks have jumped by 60% to 8,675 tons since the start of the year with another 2,951 tons lurking in the LME’s off-warrant stocks category.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，工业玩家纷纷向 LME 仓库交付金属。从年初以来，注册锡库存跃升了 60% 达到 8,675 吨，另外还有 2,951 吨存在于 LME 的无保证库存类别中。</p></div><p>Tellingly, as with copper, there is no hint of tightness in the LME tin spread structure. Both metals are trading in wide contango, signalling no immediate shortage of units.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，和铜一样，在 LME 锡价的价差结构中没有发现紧张迹象。这两种金属交易中都呈现宽幅价差，没有即刻的单位短缺。</p></div><p>Nor is there any danger of shortfall in either nickel or lead markets. LME stocks of both are high and time-spreads are super relaxed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>镍和铅市场同样也不存在短缺危险。LME 的两种金属库存均较高且时间价差表现非常放松。</p></div><p>Indeed, LME lead stocks have mushroomed to over 500,000 tons and the heavy metal is on course to take over from aluminium as the metallic financing vehicle of choice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，LME 铅库存已暴增至超过 50 万吨，这种重金属正路线变成铝之后的金属金融工具的选择。</p></div><p>Zinc remains an outlier, the galvanising metal still stubbornly refusing to perform to bear script.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>锌仍是一个例外，镀锌金属依然不愿按熊市脚本表现。</p></div><p>LME inventory has failed to rebuild in any meaningful way - stocks are up just 7,900 tons on the start of the year - and the cash-to-three-months time-spread (CMZN0-3) is trading at a marginal contango of $5.00 per ton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LME 库存未能以任何有意义的方式恢复—库存比年初增加了仅 7,900 吨，而现货至三个月的时间价差（CMZN0-3）以每吨 5.00 美元的边际价差交易。</p></div><h3>SECOND-ROUND IMPACT</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>第二轮影响</h3></div><p>The big question mark hanging over the LME base metals as we enter the second quarter is what impact the Iran war will have on demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着进入第二季度，悬挂在 LME 基本金属上的大问题是伊朗战争对需求的影响是什么。</p></div><p>Surging energy prices are not good news for either manufacturers or consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源价格飙升对制造商和消费者均不利。</p></div><p>Much of course depends on how long hostilities last, which is why metals have gone from making the headlines in January to slavishly following them in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，这很大程度上取决于敌对行动持续的时间，这就是为什么金属在一月份成为头条新闻，而三月份则跟随新闻。</p></div><p>For aluminium, though, the war has already gone on too long and the loss of key production assets in the Gulf is going to be felt for many months to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对铝来说，这场战争已经持续得太久，波斯湾关键生产资产的损失将在未来几个月内持续显现。</p></div><p>(The opinions expressed here are those of Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.) Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, and X. And listen to the Morning Bid daily podcast on Apple, Spotify, or the Reuters app. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（本文所表达观点属于安迪·霍姆，路透社专栏作家）喜欢这篇文章？浏览路透社 Open Interest（ROI），您全球金融评论的新主要来源。在 LinkedIn 与 X 上关注 ROI，并在 Apple、Spotify 或路透社应用程序上收听每日播客 Morning Bid。订阅以便路透社记者每日七天讨论市场与金融的重大新闻。</p></div><p>LME metals relative price performance in Q1 2026</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年第一季度 LME 金属相对价格表现</p></div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/47D7y4x" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/47D7y4x"/></p>
<p>Physical aluminium premiums jump on Gulf supply shock</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>海湾供应冲击下实物铝升水上涨</p></div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4s7WnrW" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4s7WnrW"/></p>
<p>Global exchange stocks of copper top 1.4 million tons in March</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球交易所铜库存在三月突破 140 万吨</p></div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/47GJdea" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/47GJdea"/></p>
<p>LME lead stocks hit half-million ton mark</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LME 铅库存突破五十万吨</p></div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4bZs2pn" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4bZs2pn"/></p>
<p>(Writing by Andy Home; Editing by Marguerita Choy)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（撰稿：安迪·霍姆；编辑：玛格丽塔·夏伊）</p></div><p>)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>)</p></div>

ROI-LME交易者错误地评估了金属供应危机：安迪·霍姆