<p>油价在周四经历了显著的波动，美国原油价格上涨超过 11%，而布伦特原油上涨了 7%。</p>
<p>这一上涨是由于交易者对潜在的长期石油供应中断感到担忧，原因是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布华盛顿将继续对伊朗进行攻击。</p>
<p>由于能源价格飙升和美元兑一篮子主要货币上涨，黄金价格大幅下跌，限制了对贵金属的需求。</p>
<p>在特朗普表示将在接下来的两到三周内对伊朗 “采取极其严厉的措施” 后，基本金属价格也回落。</p>
<p>在撰写本文时，三个月期铜合约报每吨 12,339.60 美元，下跌 0.9%；铝合约报每吨 3,466.90 美元，较前一交易日下跌 1.6%。</p>
<p><strong>WTI 上涨 11%</strong></p>
<p>西德克萨斯中质原油价格在周四上涨超过 11%，在经历了两天的下跌后出现了急剧反弹。</p>
<p>这一上涨是由于特朗普总统威胁进一步升级与伊朗的冲突，导致能源市场的不确定性重新加剧。</p>
<p>WTI 的价格通常低于布伦特原油，最近却超过了布伦特，溢价接近 3 美元，这是美国原油期货相对于全球基准的最高溢价，创下了一年来的新高。</p>
<p>尽管如此，这两种油价基准仍低于冲突早期接近每桶 120 美元的高点。</p>
<p>WTI 合约报每桶 110.68 美元，上涨 10.6%；而布伦特原油上涨 6.1%，报每桶 107.25 美元。</p>
<p>特朗普宣布，美国计划在接下来的两到三周内对伊朗 “采取极其严厉的打击”，特别威胁要针对该国的 “每一座” 发电厂。</p>
<p>他进一步表示，一旦冲突结束，霍尔木兹海峡将 “自然” 重新开放，尽管他未能提供具体细节或明确的时间表。</p>
<p>特朗普还宣布将显著加强军事行动，表示：“我们将在接下来的两到三周内对他们进行极其严厉的打击，” 并威胁要 “把他们带回到他们应有的石器时代。”</p>
<p>然而，他未能概述任何结束敌对行动的步骤或详细说明可能导致霍尔木兹海峡重新开放的措施，而霍尔木兹海峡是数十个国家寻求恢复的关键能源运输路线。</p>
<p>与此同时，英国正在召开约 40 个国家的虚拟会议，讨论霍尔木兹海峡的重新开放；美国将不参加。</p>
<p>海峡的关闭已停止基于迪拜中东基准的交易，该基准通常占全球原油近五分之一的价值。</p>
<p>OPEC+ 预计将在周日考虑进一步增加产量，准备在海峡重新开放时增加原油供应，但这不会立即提升供应。</p>
<p>即使霍尔木兹海峡的航运恢复，恢复到战争前的市场条件也可能会很缓慢，因为上游生产的重启、物流的正常化和库存的重建都需要时间。</p>
<p>ING 集团商品策略负责人沃伦·帕特森表示。</p>
<p><strong>黄金下滑</strong></p>
<p>由于美元上涨和油价上升，黄金价格在周四下跌。</p>
<p>在紧张局势升级的背景下，投资者寻求美元的安全避风港，特朗普强烈警告伊朗将在接下来的两到三周内 “遭受极其严厉的打击”。</p>
<p>特朗普进一步降低了快速缓和局势的希望，表示在霍尔木兹海峡 “开放、自由和清晰” 之前，停火是不可能的。</p>
<p>“这对黄金造成了压力，尽管它已经设法重新回到 4600 美元以上，” Trade Nation 的高级市场分析师大卫·莫里森表示。</p>
<p>“美国国债收益率的上升也促使资金流出无收益资产，从而导致黄金下跌。”</p>
<p>短期内，黄金价格的走势预计将主要受到中东局势发展的影响，超越通常关注的即将发布的事件，如周五的非农就业报告。</p>
<p>当利率较高时，黄金作为通胀对冲工具的地位受到削弱，因为它不提供收益。这种脆弱性在最近变得明显，自 2 月 28 日伊朗冲突开始以来，现货黄金已下跌 12%。</p>
<p>有关土耳其中央银行黄金储备的消息进一步对投资者情绪产生了负面影响。</p>
<p>当局试图减轻战争带来的市场影响，导致储备大幅减少。具体而言，上周中央银行的持有量减少了 69.1 公吨，使得过去两周的总下降超过 118 公吨，目前储备为 702.5 公吨。</p>
<p>在亚洲市场，价格下滑刺激了印度的需求，黄金首次以溢价交易，然而，中国的溢价略有下降，买家似乎在等待更深的价格修正。</p>
<p>COMEX 黄金合约最后报每盎司 4686.40 美元，下跌 2.6%；而白银报每盎司 72.485 美元，较前一交易日下跌 4.8%。</p>
<p>“白银现在正在重新测试一个支撑带，该支撑带从 70 美元开始，延伸到 68 美元，” 莫里森表示。</p>
<p>如果白银在此处持续突破，则将增加回落至每盎司 60 美元的风险。</p>

油气服务 ETF - Market Vectors

恒生黄金ETF

<p>油价在周四大幅上涨，WTI 上涨超过 11%，布伦特原油上涨 7%，主要受到特朗普总统对伊朗威胁可能导致供应中断的担忧推动。由于美元走强，黄金价格大幅下跌，限制了对贵金属的需求。基础金属也因紧张局势升级而回落。特朗普宣布加强军事行动并威胁伊朗的电力基础设施，加剧了市场波动。霍尔木兹海峡的局势依然严峻，各国之间的讨论仍在进行，但美国并未参与</p>

<p>Oil prices experienced significant volatility on Thursday as US crude saw a jump of over 11%, while Brent crude rose by 7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价在周四经历了显著的波动，美国原油价格上涨超过 11%，而布伦特原油上涨了 7%。</p>
</div><p>This surge was driven by trader concern over potential long-term disruptions to oil supply, following US President Donald Trump's announcement that Washington would continue attacks on Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一上涨是由于交易者对潜在的长期石油供应中断感到担忧，原因是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布华盛顿将继续对伊朗进行攻击。</p>
</div><p>Gold prices fell sharply as energy prices surged and the dollar rose against a basket of major currencies, limiting demand for the precious metals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于能源价格飙升和美元兑一篮子主要货币上涨，黄金价格大幅下跌，限制了对贵金属的需求。</p>
</div><p>Base metals prices also retreated after Donald Trump said he would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特朗普表示将在接下来的两到三周内对伊朗 “采取极其严厉的措施” 后，基本金属价格也回落。</p>
</div><p>At the time of writing, the three-month copper contract was at $12,339.60 per ton, down 0.9%, while the aluminium contract was at $3,466.90 per ton, down 1.6% from the previous close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在撰写本文时，三个月期铜合约报每吨 12,339.60 美元，下跌 0.9%；铝合约报每吨 3,466.90 美元，较前一交易日下跌 1.6%。</p>
</div><p><strong>WTI jumps 11%</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>WTI 上涨 11%</strong></p>
</div><p>West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices surged by over 11% on Thursday, marking a sharp rebound following two days of losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西德克萨斯中质原油价格在周四上涨超过 11%，在经历了两天的下跌后出现了急剧反弹。</p>
</div><p>This increase was driven by renewed uncertainty in energy markets after US President Donald Trump threatened a further escalation of the conflict with Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一上涨是由于特朗普总统威胁进一步升级与伊朗的冲突，导致能源市场的不确定性重新加剧。</p>
</div><p>The price of WTI, typically lower than Brent crude, recently exceeded it, commanding a premium of nearly $3, the highest premium for US crude futures over the global benchmark in a year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>WTI 的价格通常低于布伦特原油，最近却超过了布伦特，溢价接近 3 美元，这是美国原油期货相对于全球基准的最高溢价，创下了一年来的新高。</p>
</div><p>Despite this, both oil benchmarks are still trading below the highs of nearly $120 a barrel reached earlier in the conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，这两种油价基准仍低于冲突早期接近每桶 120 美元的高点。</p>
</div><p>The WTI contract was at $110.68 a barrel, up 10.6%, while Brent was 6.1% higher at $107.25 a barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>WTI 合约报每桶 110.68 美元，上涨 10.6%；而布伦特原油上涨 6.1%，报每桶 107.25 美元。</p>
</div><p>Trump announced that the US plans to strike Iran &#34;extremely hard&#34; within the next two to three weeks, specifically threatening to target &#34;each and every one&#34; of the country's power plants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普宣布，美国计划在接下来的两到三周内对伊朗 “采取极其严厉的打击”，特别威胁要针对该国的 “每一座” 发电厂。</p>
</div><p>He further asserted that the Strait of Hormuz would &#34;naturally&#34; reopen once the conflict concludes, though he failed to provide specifics or a definite timeline for this to occur.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他进一步表示，一旦冲突结束，霍尔木兹海峡将 “自然” 重新开放，尽管他未能提供具体细节或明确的时间表。</p>
</div><p>Trump further announced a significant intensification of military operations, stating, &#34;We're going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks,&#34; and threatening to &#34;bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普还宣布将显著加强军事行动，表示：“我们将在接下来的两到三周内对他们进行极其严厉的打击，” 并威胁要 “把他们带回到他们应有的石器时代。”</p>
</div><p>However, he failed to outline any steps towards ending the hostilities or detail any measures that might lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy shipment route that dozens of countries are seeking to restore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，他未能概述任何结束敌对行动的步骤或详细说明可能导致霍尔木兹海峡重新开放的措施，而霍尔木兹海峡是数十个国家寻求恢复的关键能源运输路线。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Britain is hosting a virtual meeting of about 40 nations to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz; the US will not attend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，英国正在召开约 40 个国家的虚拟会议，讨论霍尔木兹海峡的重新开放；美国将不参加。</p>
</div><p>The Strait's closure has halted dealings based on the Dubai Middle East benchmark, which typically values nearly a fifth of global crude.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>海峡的关闭已停止基于迪拜中东基准的交易，该基准通常占全球原油近五分之一的价值。</p>
</div><p>OPEC+ is expected to consider a further output increase on Sunday, preparing to add barrels if the Strait reopens, but this won't boost supply sooner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OPEC+ 预计将在周日考虑进一步增加产量，准备在海峡重新开放时增加原油供应，但这不会立即提升供应。</p>
</div><p>Even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, a return to pre‑war market conditions is likely to be slow, as upstream production restarts, logistics normalisation and inventory rebuilding will take time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使霍尔木兹海峡的航运恢复，恢复到战争前的市场条件也可能会很缓慢，因为上游生产的重启、物流的正常化和库存的重建都需要时间。</p>
</div><p>Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Group, said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 集团商品策略负责人沃伦·帕特森表示。</p>
</div><p><strong>Gold slips</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>黄金下滑</strong></p>
</div><p>Gold prices dropped on Thursday due to an increase in the US dollar and a rise in oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于美元上涨和油价上升，黄金价格在周四下跌。</p>
</div><p>Investors sought the safety of the US dollar amid escalating tensions, driven by Trump's strong warnings that Iran faced being &#34;hit extremely hard&#34; within the next two to three weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在紧张局势升级的背景下，投资者寻求美元的安全避风港，特朗普强烈警告伊朗将在接下来的两到三周内 “遭受极其严厉的打击”。</p>
</div><p>Trump further diminished hopes for a quick de-escalation by stating that a ceasefire would not be possible until the Strait of Hormuz was &#34;open, free and clear.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普进一步降低了快速缓和局势的希望，表示在霍尔木兹海峡 “开放、自由和清晰” 之前，停火是不可能的。</p>
</div><p>“This weighed on gold, although it has managed to poke its nose back above $4,600,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这对黄金造成了压力，尽管它已经设法重新回到 4600 美元以上，” Trade Nation 的高级市场分析师大卫·莫里森表示。</p>
</div><p>“Rising US Treasury yields also contributed to gold’s decline by encouraging flows away from non-yielding assets.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美国国债收益率的上升也促使资金流出无收益资产，从而导致黄金下跌。”</p>
</div><p>Near-term gold price action is expected to be primarily influenced by Middle East developments, overriding the usual focus on upcoming events like Friday's Non-Farm Payroll report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期内，黄金价格的走势预计将主要受到中东局势发展的影响，超越通常关注的即将发布的事件，如周五的非农就业报告。</p>
</div><p>Gold's status as an inflation hedge is undermined when interest rates are high because it offers no yield. This vulnerability has been evident recently, with spot gold falling 12% since the Iran conflict began on February 28.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当利率较高时，黄金作为通胀对冲工具的地位受到削弱，因为它不提供收益。这种脆弱性在最近变得明显，自 2 月 28 日伊朗冲突开始以来，现货黄金已下跌 12%。</p>
</div><p>Investor sentiment was further negatively impacted by news concerning the Turkish central bank's gold reserves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有关土耳其中央银行黄金储备的消息进一步对投资者情绪产生了负面影响。</p>
</div><p>Authorities there sought to mitigate market fallout from the war, leading to a significant reduction in reserves. Specifically, the central bank's holdings dropped by 69.1 metric tons last week, bringing the total decline over the last two weeks to more than 118 tons, resulting in current reserves of 702.5 tons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当局试图减轻战争带来的市场影响，导致储备大幅减少。具体而言，上周中央银行的持有量减少了 69.1 公吨，使得过去两周的总下降超过 118 公吨，目前储备为 702.5 公吨。</p>
</div><p>In Asian markets, the softer prices spurred demand in India, where gold traded at a premium for the first time in two months. Conversely, premiums in China saw a slight decrease as buyers appeared to be waiting for a deeper price correction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在亚洲市场，价格下滑刺激了印度的需求，黄金首次以溢价交易，然而，中国的溢价略有下降，买家似乎在等待更深的价格修正。</p>
</div><p>The COMEX gold contract was last at $4,686.40 per ounce, down 2.6%, while silver was at $72.485 an ounce, down 4.8% from the previous close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>COMEX 黄金合约最后报每盎司 4686.40 美元，下跌 2.6%；而白银报每盎司 72.485 美元，较前一交易日下跌 4.8%。</p>
</div><p>“Silver is now retesting a band of support which starts around $70 and stretches down to $68,” Morrison said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“白银现在正在重新测试一个支撑带，该支撑带从 70 美元开始，延伸到 68 美元，” 莫里森表示。</p>
</div><p>If it were to put in a protracted break below here, then that would increase the risk of a deeper drop back towards $60 per ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果白银在此处持续突破，则将增加回落至每盎司 60 美元的风险。</p>
</div>

Commodity wrap: WTI up 11% as Trump escalates Mideast conflict; gold slips

Invezz

Kinross Gold

华夏中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF

美国油气勘探与生产 ETF - iShares

纽蒙特矿业

易方达黄金矿-U

能源业 ETF - SPDR

黄金矿 ETF - Sprott

2 倍做多小型金矿指数 ETF - Direxion

YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

金矿股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

2 倍做多金矿指数 ETF - Direxion

标普油气设备与服务 ETF - SPDR

易方达黄金矿-R

SPDR金

2 倍做多黄金 ETF - ProShares

和顺石油

中金黄金

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

华夏黄金ETF

易方达黄金矿业ETF

Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF

黄金 ETF - SPDR

黄金和贵金属矿商 ETF - U.S. Global

西方石油

山东黄金

黄金 ETF - iShares

炼油公司指数 ETF - VanEck Vectors

阿尼科伊格尔矿业

美国布伦特原油期货基金

金矿小盘股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

全球黄金矿业股 MSCI ETF - iShares

美国石油设备与服务 ETF - iShares

标普全球能源股指数 ETF - iShares

黄金 MiniShares 信托 - SPDR

能源业 ETF - Vanguard

黄金勘探商 ETF - GlobalX

实物黄金股 ETF - ETFS

初级黄金矿股 ETF

油气开采 ETF - SPDR

3 倍做多黄金矿业 ETN - MicroSectors

商品综述：特朗普升级中东冲突，WTI 原油价格上涨 11%；黄金价格下跌