<div id="readability-page-1"><div id="parent_top_div">Crude oil sustaining above $100 per barrel will push the headline inflation above 6 per cent, the upper level of RBI's tolerance band, and trigger rate hikes, a foreign brokerage has said. Economists at HSBC said that consumer price inflation (CPI) will remain below 6 per cent if oil prices average below $100 per barrel, as per its modelling. &#34;... Sustained oil above USD100/bbl would push inflation beyond 6 per cent, likely triggering rate hikes,&#34; the economists said, adding that we are at &#34;crossroads&#34; as Brent has averaged $100 in March. Amid speculation ahead of next Wednesday's monetary policy announcement on whether the RBI uses interest rates to defend the rupee, the report suggested risks of such a move. &#34;An interest-rate defence for the INR can be expensive when the growth drag becomes non-linear and intensifies quickly with higher oil prices,&#34; it said. The economists recommended adopting a &#34;neutral&#34; stance on both the monetary and fiscal fronts for now, as the supplies are yet to be cleared and stimulating demand can stoke inflation. Pointing out that doing so would be akin to the experience during the COVID pandemic, the report said stimulating demand before supply was repaired led to high and sticky inflation back then. &#34;The lesson now is clear: avoid boosting demand too early. But this is a delicate balance. Policymakers don't want to overstimulate, but they also can't tighten so much that the growth slowdown deepens,&#34; it added. Elaborating on the &#34;neutral&#34; prescription, it said this would mean keeping the fiscal deficit close to FY26 levels and raising petrol and diesel prices to help contain the fiscal deficit. On the monetary side, the &#34;flexible&#34; inflation targeting framework allows inflation to stay within the 2-6 per cent range, it added. If the ongoing energy shock persists for a few more weeks, the growth drag could begin to outweigh the inflation shock, it said.</div></div>

汇丰

美国能源 ETF - iShares

汇丰控股有限公司

汇丰经济学家警告称，原油价格超过每桶 100 美元将推动通胀超过 6%，超出印度储备银行的容忍区间，并可能引发加息。他们建议在货币和财政政策上采取中性立场，以避免过度刺激需求，这可能导致高通胀，正如在 COVID 疫情期间所见。报告强调需要平衡增长与通胀，建议如果能源冲击持续，增长的负面影响可能会超过通胀担忧

Crude sustaining above $100 will push inflation beyond 6%, says HSBC

- 外资机构表示，原油维持在每桶 100 美元以上将推高通胀超 6%。  
- 汇丰经济学家指出，若油价平均低于 100 美元，消费者价格通胀将低于 6%。  
- 报告建议采取中性政策，以避免早期刺激需求导致高通胀。

Business Standard

能源业 ETF - SPDR

油气开采 ETF - SPDR

FGX原油

HSBC Holdings plc ADRhedged

美国油气勘探与生产 ETF - iShares

汇丰控股

英国石油

标普油气设备与服务 ETF - SPDR

标普全球能源股指数 ETF - iShares

油气服务 ETF - Market Vectors

德银原油基金 - PowerShares

和顺石油

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

美国布伦特原油期货基金

炼油公司指数 ETF - VanEck Vectors

美国石油设备与服务 ETF - iShares

F三星原油期

西方石油

能源业 ETF - Vanguard

汇丰指出，若原油价格持续保持在每桶 100 美元以上，通胀率将超过 6%