<ul>
<li>“由于伊朗战争持续，经济衰退的风险显著增加，” 经济学家说道。</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>随着油价飙升，全球范围内的商业活动出现放缓迹象。</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>持续的战争和升级可能导致经济影响成倍扩大。</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>中国及美国相对处在较好的位置，欧洲及亚洲其他国家面临更多风险。</li>
</ul><p>由 Howard Schneider, Timothy Aeppel, Sarah McFarlane 和 Sumit Khanna 撰写。</p><p>SAN FRANCISCO/AHMEDABAD, India, 4 月 7 日（路透社）——Kevin Kelly 面临着艰难处境。他表示，自美国对伊朗开战以来的几周内出现了前所未有的价格上涨，这意味着，这位加州生产杂货袋的制造商可能不得不违约，无法遵守既定合同。</p><p>数千英里之外的印度，由于天然气供应不足，几十家出口铝产品到全球的工厂已经关闭。而在英国，一些农民正努力维持他们的化肥存储，因为价格大幅上涨。</p><p>战争进入第六周，占全球石油供应接近五分之一的部分受限于伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的运输限制，后果已从金融市场蔓延到商业活动，加剧全球经济萎缩或者衰退的风险。</p><p>Kelly 表示，由于塑料树脂价格仅在短短几周内从每磅 45 美分跃升至 85 美分，继续维持 Emerald Packaging 的待定订单中的既定价格对其年收入高达 9200 万美元的家族企业而言将是经济上的自杀行为。</p><p>“我们只能宣布不可抗力，” 他在旧金山附近的联合市工厂接受采访时说道。</p><p>当公司宣布不可抗力时，它是告诉客户由于公司不可控的因素无法履行合同。</p><p>“价格上涨如此之高，如果因为我们将成本转嫁而失去客户，我们只能让他们离开，” 他说，并补充道，他预计大部分长期客户会理解并接受更改后的条款。</p><p>相比美国，亚洲和欧洲国家更容易受到海湾地区能源冲击的影响。然而，分析师表示，随着通货膨胀压力增加，美国消费者的消费缩减不可避免。Emerald Packaging 遇到的问题表明情况更为普遍，企业支付的投入成本在三月创下了 13 年来的最大涨幅。高盛将对美国经济衰退的风险评估提高到了 30%。</p><p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普通过谈判伊朗协议的同时威胁摧毁其文明，将市场置于紧张状态。他威胁要将伊朗 “摧毁并送回石器时代”，同时加剧攻击，包括瞄准桥梁和发电厂。他警告如果伊朗未能在星期二晚上达成协议，他们可能会被 “摧毁”。</p><p>周二，布伦特原油基准价格约为每桶 109 美元，自冲突开始前的 2 月 28 日以来上涨超过 50%，并在过去三周中持续保持在或接近每桶 100 美元以上。</p><p>如果油价超过每桶 110 或 120 美元，全球经济风险将加剧，Citi 的首席全球经济学家、前美国财政部官员 Nathan Sheets 警告道。</p><p>“随着此次冲击越来越严重，经济衰退的风险显著上升……可能存在一些门槛，当超过这些门槛时，某些类型的经济活动将变得难以维持，从而导致更为剧烈且非线性的回落。” Sheets 表示。</p><p>如果战争继续或升级，将可能触发全球石油需求价格调整至与供应急剧限制相匹配的水平，这意味着经济活动将出现收缩。</p><p>如果当前的供应中断持续，路透社调查的 13 位分析师预测全年油价将在每桶 100 至 190 美元之间。</p><p>海湾地区的炼油厂、港口和油存储设施严重受损，即使战争结束，也可能需要数月时间才能恢复到以往的供应水平。据科威特和卡塔尔国营石油公司称，这可能意味着持续的高油价。</p><p>即便冲突迅速解决，国际货币基金组织也预计将下调全球经济增长预测，并上调通胀预期，IMF 总经理 Kristalina Georgieva 周一告诉路透社。</p><p>战争前每天约有 2000 万桶石油及精炼产品从该地区出口，现在只有一小部分是通过替代管道到达全球市场。</p><p>“如此大规模的供应中断将需要显著的需求毁灭以平衡市场，” Columbia Threadneedle 的投资级信用分析师 Travis Flint 表示，他指出持久的高油价通常导致消费者和企业需求下滑。他将当前形势与 COVID-19 疫情对比。经济疼痛不均</p><p>不论出现何种情况，其影响都不会均匀分布。对能源高度依赖的英国，经济合作与发展组织将其对该国今年的经济增长预测从 1.2% 下调至 0.7%，这是主要经济体中最大的降幅。</p><p>对于英格兰东米德兰兹地区的切花农农夫 Matthew Naylor 来说，化肥成本上涨和供应有限意味着他只能用现有库存维护田间管理。他说，他听说其他一些农民正在研究卖出化肥是否比种植作物赚得更多。</p><p>“我们所能做的最好事情就是非常非常地节省我们拥有的资源，并期待国际社会恢复理智，” 他说。</p><p>在亚洲部分地区，冲击尤为严重。在印度古吉拉特邦，许多铝挤压厂由于天然气短缺在战争开始四到五天后即停产，印度铝挤压制造商协会主席 Jitendra Chopra 称。印度是金属产品重要出口国，这些产品广泛用于建筑、太阳能板框架、运输设备和消费品，其问题可能随着时间推移导致全球价格上涨。中国和美国相对更具优势相比之下，世界两大经济体可能更能够承受这种冲击。中国因对海湾石油依赖度低且电气化程度高而具优势，而美国目前是能源净出口国，供应难题概率较低。更高的成本对美国的影响是双重的，既伤害了消费者，又促进了国内能源企业的发展，可能提高能源行业工人的工资并创造就业机会。</p><p>美国经济在过去六年中经历了许多困境，并在假设战争很快结束的情况下，应能挺过这一场危机，Matthew Martin，牛津经济学资深美国经济学家在最近的一份分析中写道。</p><p>然而，他警告战争持续时间的长短至关重要，“持续时间越长，越有可能出现问题导致经济出现衰退，” 他写道。</p><p>到目前为止，美国消费者支出保持相对稳定。根据美国银行信用卡及借记卡使用最新数据，截至 3 月 21 日的本周，卡使用同比增长 4.4%。扣除汽油增长，此数据更加温和，为 3.6%，而较低收入家庭的消费更多集中在上升的汽油费用。</p><p>预计未来几周内，全球最大的经济体家庭预算的紧缩影响将显现于餐饮服务、旅游及住宿行业。汽油价格从不到 3 美元跳升到超过 4 美元每加仑，增长了约 30%；此外，股票市值的下降亦影响了较富有家庭的消费决定。</p><p>即便许多美国家庭因去年通过的法律获得了非常大的退税额，今年的消费增长可能仅为 1%，不到去年的一半。Panetheon Marcoeconomics 的首席美国经济学家 Sam Tombs 在分析中称，未来几个月可能会迎来 “增长恐慌”。</p><p>“在未来几个月内，可自由支配服务消费能够保持坚挺将令人感到惊讶，因为家庭现金流受到了挤压，” Tombs 写道。</p><p>制造厂老板 Kelly 预计塑料行业的价格上涨将持续整个夏季。</p><p>“即使明天战争结束，它仍会发生，” 他说，此时他站在工厂里靠着塑料材料的大号卷筒附近。</p><p>“我们制造了巨大的问题，这些问题将在未来几个月逐步显现，” 他说。</p><p>ISM 服务业采购经理人指数</p><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4vdqVep?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="400" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4vdqVep"/></p><p>全球供应链压力因伊朗战争首次受到冲击</p><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3PP1rnG?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="960" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3PP1rnG"/></p>

<ul>
<li>“The risks of recession are rising significantly,” economist says as Iran war drags on</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>“由于伊朗战争持续，经济衰退的风险显著增加，” 经济学家说道。</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>Signs from across the globe of slower business activity as oil prices surge</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>随着油价飙升，全球范围内的商业活动出现放缓迹象。</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>Sustained war, escalation would see economic impacts multiply</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>持续的战争和升级可能导致经济影响成倍扩大。</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>China, U.S. relatively better placed, while Europe, other Asian countries exposed</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>中国及美国相对处在较好的位置，欧洲及亚洲其他国家面临更多风险。</li>
</ul></div><p>By Howard Schneider, Timothy Aeppel, Sarah McFarlane and Sumit Khanna</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由 Howard Schneider, Timothy Aeppel, Sarah McFarlane 和 Sumit Khanna 撰写。</p></div><p>SAN FRANCISCO/AHMEDABAD, India, April 7 (Reuters) - K evin Kelly is in a tough spot. What he says are unprecedented price increases in the weeks since the United States waged war on Iran mean the Californian, who makes plastic bags for groceries, may have to break contracts he cannot afford to honor with his customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SAN FRANCISCO/AHMEDABAD, India, 4 月 7 日（路透社）——Kevin Kelly 面临着艰难处境。他表示，自美国对伊朗开战以来的几周内出现了前所未有的价格上涨，这意味着，这位加州生产杂货袋的制造商可能不得不违约，无法遵守既定合同。</p></div><p>Thousands of miles away in India, gas shortages have closed dozens of plants that export aluminum products around the world. And in Britain, some farmers are eking out their fertilizer stocks as prices soar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数千英里之外的印度，由于天然气供应不足，几十家出口铝产品到全球的工厂已经关闭。而在英国，一些农民正努力维持他们的化肥存储，因为价格大幅上涨。</p></div><p>With the war in its sixth week and almost a fifth of the world’s oil supplies affected by Iran’s limits on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, consequences are spreading from financial markets into business activity, raising risks of a global economic pullback – or even recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>战争进入第六周，占全球石油供应接近五分之一的部分受限于伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的运输限制，后果已从金融市场蔓延到商业活动，加剧全球经济萎缩或者衰退的风险。</p></div><p>Kelly said sharp jumps in the cost of plastic resin over a couple of weeks from 45 cents to 85 cents per pound meant it would be economic suicide for Emerald Packaging, his $92 million a year family-owned business, to keep the prices agreed in pending orders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Kelly 表示，由于塑料树脂价格仅在短短几周内从每磅 45 美分跃升至 85 美分，继续维持 Emerald Packaging 的待定订单中的既定价格对其年收入高达 9200 万美元的家族企业而言将是经济上的自杀行为。</p></div><p>“We’ll just declare force majeure,” he said during an interview at his Union City factory near San Francisco.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们只能宣布不可抗力，” 他在旧金山附近的联合市工厂接受采访时说道。</p></div><p>When a company declares force majeure, it is telling customers it cannot deliver on contracts due to factors beyond the company’s control.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当公司宣布不可抗力时，它是告诉客户由于公司不可控的因素无法履行合同。</p></div><p>“The increases are so high, if we were to lose a customer because we pass them through, we just have to let them go,” he said, adding that he expected most of his long-standing clients would understand and swallow the changed terms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“价格上涨如此之高，如果因为我们将成本转嫁而失去客户，我们只能让他们离开，” 他说，并补充道，他预计大部分长期客户会理解并接受更改后的条款。</p></div><p>Countries in Asia and Europe are more exposed to the fallout of the Gulf energy shock than the United States. However, analysts say pullback among American consumers is inevitable as inflationary pressures rise. In a sign that the problems faced by Emerald Packaging are more widespread, prices paid by businesses for inputs increased by the most in more than 13 years in March. Goldman Sachs has raised its view on the risk of a U.S. recession to as much 30%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比美国，亚洲和欧洲国家更容易受到海湾地区能源冲击的影响。然而，分析师表示，随着通货膨胀压力增加，美国消费者的消费缩减不可避免。Emerald Packaging 遇到的问题表明情况更为普遍，企业支付的投入成本在三月创下了 13 年来的最大涨幅。高盛将对美国经济衰退的风险评估提高到了 30%。</p></div><p>U.S. President Donald Trump has kept investors on edge by talking up negotiations with Iran while threatening to destroy its civilization and send it back to the Stone Age with intensified attacks, including on its bridges and power plants. He warned Iran could be “taken out” if it did not meet a Tuesday night deadline to reach a deal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普通过谈判伊朗协议的同时威胁摧毁其文明，将市场置于紧张状态。他威胁要将伊朗 “摧毁并送回石器时代”，同时加剧攻击，包括瞄准桥梁和发电厂。他警告如果伊朗未能在星期二晚上达成协议，他们可能会被 “摧毁”。</p></div><p>Benchmark Brent crude cost about $109 a barrel on Tuesday, and has remained above or around $100 for more than three weeks, up over 50% from about $70 just before the conflict began on February 28.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二，布伦特原油基准价格约为每桶 109 美元，自冲突开始前的 2 月 28 日以来上涨超过 50%，并在过去三周中持续保持在或接近每桶 100 美元以上。</p></div><p>Risks sharpen for the global economy if oil moves above $110 or $120 a barrel, warned Nathan Sheets, chief global economist at Citi and a former U.S. Treasury Department official.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果油价超过每桶 110 或 120 美元，全球经济风险将加剧，Citi 的首席全球经济学家、前美国财政部官员 Nathan Sheets 警告道。</p></div><p>“As this shock gets bigger and bigger, the risks of recession are rising significantly…There are likely some thresholds where…certain kinds of economic activity no longer are justifiable, and you have a sharper, more nonlinear pullback,” Sheets said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“随着此次冲击越来越严重，经济衰退的风险显著上升……可能存在一些门槛，当超过这些门槛时，某些类型的经济活动将变得难以维持，从而导致更为剧烈且非线性的回落。” Sheets 表示。</p></div><p>The war, if it persists or escalates, is likely to test the trigger price at which the world’s demand for petroleum is wrenched into line with its suddenly constrained supply. That means a contraction in economic activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果战争继续或升级，将可能触发全球石油需求价格调整至与供应急剧限制相匹配的水平，这意味着经济活动将出现收缩。</p></div><p>If the current disruption to supply is sustained, 13 analysts polled by Reuters forecast an oil price of between $100-$190 per barrel for the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果当前的供应中断持续，路透社调查的 13 位分析师预测全年油价将在每桶 100 至 190 美元之间。</p></div><p>Attacks that have severely damaged refineries, ports and oil storage in the Gulf region mean energy supplies could take months to return to previous levels even if combat ends, meaning a sustained period of higher prices, according to state-run oil and gas companies in Kuwait and Qatar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>海湾地区的炼油厂、港口和油存储设施严重受损，即使战争结束，也可能需要数月时间才能恢复到以往的供应水平。据科威特和卡塔尔国营石油公司称，这可能意味着持续的高油价。</p></div><p>Even if the conflict is swiftly resolved, the International Monetary Fund is set to reduce its forecast for global economic growth and bump up its outlook for inflation, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva told Reuters on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即便冲突迅速解决，国际货币基金组织也预计将下调全球经济增长预测，并上调通胀预期，IMF 总经理 Kristalina Georgieva 周一告诉路透社。</p></div><p>Roughly 20 million barrels of oil and refined products had shipped out of the region each day before the war. Only a fraction of that is now reaching global markets through alternative pipeline routes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>战争前每天约有 2000 万桶石油及精炼产品从该地区出口，现在只有一小部分是通过替代管道到达全球市场。</p></div><p>“A disruption of this size is going to require significant demand destruction in order to balance the market,’ said Travis Flint, an investment grade credit analyst with Columbia Threadneedle, referring to declines in consumer and business demand that typically follow sustained high price. He compared the situation to the COVID-19 pandemic. UNEVEN ECONOMIC PAIN</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如此大规模的供应中断将需要显著的需求毁灭以平衡市场，” Columbia Threadneedle 的投资级信用分析师 Travis Flint 表示，他指出持久的高油价通常导致消费者和企业需求下滑。他将当前形势与 COVID-19 疫情对比。经济疼痛不均</p></div><p>Whatever the scenario, the impact won’t be spread equally. In the energy import-dependent United Kingdom, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and ​Development cut its forecast for British economic growth this year to 0.7% from a previous forecast of 1.2%, the ​biggest downgrade of any major economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不论出现何种情况，其影响都不会均匀分布。对能源高度依赖的英国，经济合作与发展组织将其对该国今年的经济增长预测从 1.2% 下调至 0.7%，这是主要经济体中最大的降幅。</p></div><p>For cut-flower farmer Matthew Naylor in England’s East Midlands, rising fertilizer costs and limited supply mean tending his fields with stocks he has on hand. He had heard talk, he said, of other farmers assessing whether more money was to be made selling their fertilizer than growing crops.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于英格兰东米德兰兹地区的切花农农夫 Matthew Naylor 来说，化肥成本上涨和供应有限意味着他只能用现有库存维护田间管理。他说，他听说其他一些农民正在研究卖出化肥是否比种植作物赚得更多。</p></div><p>“The best thing we can do is to be very, very economical with what we have and just to hope that sense prevails internationally,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们所能做的最好事情就是非常非常地节省我们拥有的资源，并期待国际社会恢复理智，” 他说。</p></div><p>In parts of Asia, the shock is hitting hard. In India’s Gujarat, many aluminum extrusion plants shuttered “four to five days after the war started due to unavailability of gas,” said Jitendra Chopra, president of the Aluminium Extrusion Manufacturers Association of India. India is a leading world exporter of the metal product used in construction, solar panel frames, transportation equipment and consumer goods, and its problems could over time lead to higher global prices. CHINA AND US RELATIVELY BETTER POSITIONED In contrast, the world’s two largest economies may hope to fare relatively well. China, with low dependence on Gulf oil and highly electrified looks better positioned than peers to weather the global shock. Meanwhile, the United States, now a net energy exporter, is less likely to face supply constraints. Rising costs have a two-sided U.S. impact, hurting consumers but bolstering domestic energy firms, potentially boosting pay for energy sector workers and creating jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在亚洲部分地区，冲击尤为严重。在印度古吉拉特邦，许多铝挤压厂由于天然气短缺在战争开始四到五天后即停产，印度铝挤压制造商协会主席 Jitendra Chopra 称。印度是金属产品重要出口国，这些产品广泛用于建筑、太阳能板框架、运输设备和消费品，其问题可能随着时间推移导致全球价格上涨。中国和美国相对更具优势相比之下，世界两大经济体可能更能够承受这种冲击。中国因对海湾石油依赖度低且电气化程度高而具优势，而美国目前是能源净出口国，供应难题概率较低。更高的成本对美国的影响是双重的，既伤害了消费者，又促进了国内能源企业的发展，可能提高能源行业工人的工资并创造就业机会。</p></div><p>The U.S. economy “has weathered plenty of storms over the past six years, and assuming the war concludes relatively soon, it should withstand this one,” Matthew Martin, senior U.S. economist for Oxford Economics wrote in a recent analysis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国经济在过去六年中经历了许多困境，并在假设战争很快结束的情况下，应能挺过这一场危机，Matthew Martin，牛津经济学资深美国经济学家在最近的一份分析中写道。</p></div><p>He warned, however, that the duration of the war was critical. “The longer it persists, the more likely something breaks and the economy heads toward a downturn,” he wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，他警告战争持续时间的长短至关重要，“持续时间越长，越有可能出现问题导致经济出现衰退，” 他写道。</p></div><p>So far U.S. consumer spending is holding up. Recent Bank of America credit and debit card data showed card use had grown 4.4% year over year for the week ending March 21. Excluding gasoline growth, that was a more muted 3.6%, with spending among lower income households even more devoted to rising fuel costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，美国消费者支出保持相对稳定。根据美国银行信用卡及借记卡使用最新数据，截至 3 月 21 日的本周，卡使用同比增长 4.4%。扣除汽油增长，此数据更加温和，为 3.6%，而较低收入家庭的消费更多集中在上升的汽油费用。</p></div><p>In coming weeks, the hit to family budgets in the world’s largest economy is likely to be felt across food service, travel and lodging industries, both from gasoline prices that have jumped roughly 30%, from below $3 to over $4 a gallon, and from falling equity values that influence spending decisions among wealthier households.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计未来几周内，全球最大的经济体家庭预算的紧缩影响将显现于餐饮服务、旅游及住宿行业。汽油价格从不到 3 美元跳升到超过 4 美元每加仑，增长了约 30%；此外，股票市值的下降亦影响了较富有家庭的消费决定。</p></div><p>Even with many U.S. households benefiting from larger than usual tax refunds due to laws approved last year, spending growth was likely to be about 1% this year, less than half of last year’s pace, with “a growth scare” likely over the next few months, Sam Tombs, chief U.S. economist with Panetheon Marcoeconomics, said in an analysis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即便许多美国家庭因去年通过的法律获得了非常大的退税额，今年的消费增长可能仅为 1%，不到去年的一半。Panetheon Marcoeconomics 的首席美国经济学家 Sam Tombs 在分析中称，未来几个月可能会迎来 “增长恐慌”。</p></div><p>“It would be astonishing if discretionary services spending held firm over the next couple months, given the squeeze on households’ cashflow,” Tombs wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在未来几个月内，可自由支配服务消费能够保持坚挺将令人感到惊讶，因为家庭现金流受到了挤压，” Tombs 写道。</p></div><p>Kelly, the factory owner, expects price increases in the plastics industry to keep coming right through the summer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>制造厂老板 Kelly 预计塑料行业的价格上涨将持续整个夏季。</p></div><p>“You could end the war tomorrow and it’s still going to happen” because there is so much plastic caught up in the Middle East, he said, as he stood by giant rolls of the material at his plant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“即使明天战争结束，它仍会发生，” 他说，此时他站在工厂里靠着塑料材料的大号卷筒附近。</p></div><p>“We’ve created huge problems for ourselves that are going to play out over the next several months,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们制造了巨大的问题，这些问题将在未来几个月逐步显现，” 他说。</p></div><p>ISM services PMI</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ISM 服务业采购经理人指数</p></div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4vdqVep" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/4vdqVep"/></p>
<p>Global supply chain pressures take first hit from Iran war</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球供应链压力因伊朗战争首次受到冲击</p></div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3PP1rnG" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/3PP1rnG"/></p>

From falling U.S. wealth to Indian factory closures, oil shock raises global recession risk

- 战争导致油价飙升，全球经济衰退风险加大。  
- 美国和中国相对更好，但欧洲和其他亚洲国家受到严重影响。  
- 持续的冲突可能使经济活动收缩，需降低需求以平衡市场。

Reuters

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从美国财富下降到印度工厂关闭，石油冲击加剧全球经济衰退风险