<ul>
<li>世界银行下调了对撒哈拉以南非洲 2026 年的增长预测</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>燃料、化肥成本上涨以及海湾投资的不确定性威胁脆弱经济体</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>世界银行表示，沉重的债务负担限制了政府应对危机的能力</li>
</ul><p>由科琳·戈科报道</p><p>约翰内斯堡，4 月 8 日——世界银行在周三发布的一份报告中，下调了对撒哈拉以南非洲 2026 年的增长预测，称伊朗战争的后果阻碍了该地区的复苏。</p><p>该行现在预计 2026 年的增长为 4.1%，与 2025 年持平，但低于去年 10 月的 4.4% 预测。自中东战争于 2 月底爆发以来，该行下调了预测，因为战争推动了燃料和化肥成本上升，并威胁到投资流入，而沉重的债务负担已经对增长构成拖累。</p><p>这一警告发布之际，华盛顿与德黑兰达成了为期两周的停火协议，但美国能源信息署周二警告称，即使霍尔木兹海峡重新开放后，燃料价格可能仍将在几个月内持续上涨，约五分之一的全球原油运输经由该海峡。</p><p>世界银行非洲首席经济学家安德鲁·达巴伦表示，评级下调反映了比政策制定者去年年底预期的更为艰难的外部环境。</p><p>“自那以后，我们经历了中东的持续战争，能源和化肥价格也大幅上涨，” 他在新闻发布会上表示，并补充称中断的持续时间和规模尚不确定。</p><p>与此同时，围绕海湾国家投资的不确定性正在加剧。这些国家已成为非洲，特别是东非，在采矿、可再生能源、房地产和信息通信技术等领域的主要投资方。如果持续的冲突削弱了中东的劳动力需求，许多非洲移民工作的汇款流也可能受到影响。</p><p>该冲击发生时，许多政府应对措施的空间有限。达巴伦表示，债务服务成本已从 2017 年收入的 9% 上升至 2025 年的约 18%，而非洲国家中约一半处于高债务风险或已陷入债务困境。</p><p>“这些国家实际上没有太多财政空间来应对这一危机，” 他说。</p><p>数据显示，东部和南部非洲的冲击集中在石油进口国和金融脆弱的经济体，这些国家政策空间有限，包括布隆迪、马拉维、埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚和莫桑比克。在严重情况下，肯尼亚可能面临剧烈的通胀冲击，而埃塞俄比亚仅在沙特阿拉伯就有约 75 万名工人。</p><p>达巴伦对西非的前景更加谨慎，他指出那里的化肥数据仍不完整，可能会更新。</p><p>“这并不意味着西非在化肥方面可能会表现良好，” 他说。</p>

非洲 ETF - VanEck Vectors

<ul>
<li>Bank cuts 2026 growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>世界银行下调了对撒哈拉以南非洲 2026 年的增长预测</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>Rising fuel, fertilizer costs and uncertain Gulf investment threaten vulnerable economies</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>燃料、化肥成本上涨以及海湾投资的不确定性威胁脆弱经济体</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>High debt burdens limit governments’ ability to respond to crisis, Bank says</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>世界银行表示，沉重的债务负担限制了政府应对危机的能力</li>
</ul></div><p>By Colleen Goko</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由科琳·戈科报道</p></div><p>JOHANNESBURG, April 8 - The World Bank cut its growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa for 2026 in a report published on Wednesday, saying the fallout from the Iran war was stalling the region’s recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>约翰内斯堡，4 月 8 日——世界银行在周三发布的一份报告中，下调了对撒哈拉以南非洲 2026 年的增长预测，称伊朗战争的后果阻碍了该地区的复苏。</p></div><p>The lender now expects growth of 4.1% in 2026, unchanged from 2025 but down from the 4.4% the World Bank forecast in October. Numbers were revised down since the war in the Middle East broke out in late February, pushing up fuel and fertilizer costs and threatening investment flows while heavy debt burdens already were a drag on growth, the bank said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该行现在预计 2026 年的增长为 4.1%，与 2025 年持平，但低于去年 10 月的 4.4% 预测。自中东战争于 2 月底爆发以来，该行下调了预测，因为战争推动了燃料和化肥成本上升，并威胁到投资流入，而沉重的债务负担已经对增长构成拖累。</p></div><p>The warning comes as Washington and Tehran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, though the U.S. Energy Information Administration cautioned on Tuesday that fuel prices could continue to rise for months even after a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of global oil shipments pass.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一警告发布之际，华盛顿与德黑兰达成了为期两周的停火协议，但美国能源信息署周二警告称，即使霍尔木兹海峡重新开放后，燃料价格可能仍将在几个月内持续上涨，约五分之一的全球原油运输经由该海峡。</p></div><p>Andrew Dabalen, World Bank chief economist for Africa, said the downgrade reflected a much tougher external environment than policymakers had expected late last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>世界银行非洲首席经济学家安德鲁·达巴伦表示，评级下调反映了比政策制定者去年年底预期的更为艰难的外部环境。</p></div><p>“Since then, we have had the Middle East war that is ongoing, and both energy and fertilizer prices have risen sharply,” he said during a news briefing, adding the length and scale of the disruption was as yet uncertain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“自那以后，我们经历了中东的持续战争，能源和化肥价格也大幅上涨，” 他在新闻发布会上表示，并补充称中断的持续时间和规模尚不确定。</p></div><p>At the same time, uncertainty was growing around investment from Gulf countries, which have become major investors in Africa, especially in East Africa, in sectors including mining, renewable energy, real estate and ICT. Remittance flows could also come under pressure if prolonged conflict weakens labour demand in the Middle East, where many African migrants work.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，围绕海湾国家投资的不确定性正在加剧。这些国家已成为非洲，特别是东非，在采矿、可再生能源、房地产和信息通信技术等领域的主要投资方。如果持续的冲突削弱了中东的劳动力需求，许多非洲移民工作的汇款流也可能受到影响。</p></div><p>The shock is landing as many governments have little room to respond. Dabalen said debt-servicing costs had doubled from 9% of revenues in 2017 to about 18% in 2025, while about half of African countries were either at high risk of or already in debt distress.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该冲击发生时，许多政府应对措施的空间有限。达巴伦表示，债务服务成本已从 2017 年收入的 9% 上升至 2025 年的约 18%，而非洲国家中约一半处于高债务风险或已陷入债务困境。</p></div><p>“There is very little scope actually for these countries to deal with this crisis because they just don’t have a lot of fiscal space,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这些国家实际上没有太多财政空间来应对这一危机，” 他说。</p></div><p>Data for eastern and southern Africa showed the strain was concentrated in oil-importing and financially vulnerable economies with limited policy room, including Burundi, Malawi, Ethiopia, Kenya and Mozambique. Kenya could face a sharp inflation shock under severe scenarios, while Ethiopia had about 750,000 workers in Saudi Arabia alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据显示，东部和南部非洲的冲击集中在石油进口国和金融脆弱的经济体，这些国家政策空间有限，包括布隆迪、马拉维、埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚和莫桑比克。在严重情况下，肯尼亚可能面临剧烈的通胀冲击，而埃塞俄比亚仅在沙特阿拉伯就有约 75 万名工人。</p></div><p>Dabalen was more cautious about the West Africa outlook, saying the fertilizer data there were still incomplete and could be updated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>达巴伦对西非的前景更加谨慎，他指出那里的化肥数据仍不完整，可能会更新。</p></div><p>“You shouldn’t take this to mean that, in fact, West Africa is probably going to be okay when it comes to fertilizing,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这并不意味着西非在化肥方面可能会表现良好，” 他说。</p></div>

撒哈拉以南非洲面临增长放缓，美国与伊朗战争推高成本