<p>作者：Greg Robb</p>
<p>一些货币政策制定者认为加息有 “强烈理由”——但他们属于少数派</p>
<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周表示，目前还为时尚早，无法判断伊朗战争对美国经济的影响。</p>
<p>美联储官员对伊朗战争是否会损害美国劳动力市场或推高通胀意见不一，但更多的人担心就业前景，联邦储备委员会 3 月政策会议的纪要显示。</p>
<p>更多的美国货币政策制定者认为，美联储的下一步将是降低利率。根据纪要，“许多” 官员判断，如果通胀按预期下降，最终可能适合降低联邦基金利率的目标区间。</p>
<p>只有 “一些” 官员认为，美联储应该对下一步可能加息持开放态度，认为有 “强烈理由”。</p>
<p>“令人鼓舞的是，许多美联储领导人仍然相信，一旦油价通胀冲击减退，降息将会发生，” 海军联邦信用合作社首席经济学家希瑟·朗在一份研究报告中表示。</p>
<p>在战争开始之前，美联储正计划在通胀回到目标时逐步降低利率。自冲突开始以来，汽油价格的飙升威胁到了这一计划。</p>
<p>见：即使伊朗停火，通胀也不会很快减缓。这就是原因。</p>
<p>在 3 月 17 日至 18 日的会议上，美联储官员连续第二次将利率维持在 3.5% 至 3.75% 的区间。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔选择不多谈能源冲击将如何影响经济，采取了 “观望” 的态度。</p>
<p>美联储官员坚持今年将降息一次的预测，但经济学家认为中央银行并不急于采取任何利率行动。</p>
<p>在讨论战争影响时，“大多数” 美联储官员表示，长期冲突将削弱劳动力市场状况，“这可能需要额外的降息。” 因为更高的油价（CL00）可能会减少家庭的消费能力。</p>
<p>少数美联储官员认为，战争提高了通胀在预期之外长期保持高位的风险。这可能需要加息以帮助降低通胀。</p>
<p>官员们得出结论，关于冲突将如何影响经济 “还为时尚早”，并表示保持 “灵活” 是重要的。</p>
<p>美联储的工作人员预测，战争导致的股价下跌和原油价格上涨对经济活动的影响 “微小”。工作人员略微下调了增长预期，并表示失业率在明年大部分时间将保持在当前水平附近。今年 1 月，美联储工作人员预计失业率将下降。</p>
<p>在美联储会议后的三周内，官员们仍然不确定前景。</p>
<p>“这是一个经济不寻常的时期。存在重大风险，且不确定性很高，” 纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯表示。</p>
<p>马克·赫尔伯特：利率将走低——实际收益率表明美联储将降息半个百分点</p>
<p>到目前为止，中东冲突的影响比预期的要小，桑坦德首席美国经济学家斯蒂芬·斯坦利在给客户的报告中表示。</p>
<p>在政府报告美国经济在 3 月份新增了 178,000 个就业岗位后，关于劳动力市场的担忧有所缓解。</p>
<p>“尽管有所有的担忧……经济实际上表现得相当不错，” 德意志银行首席美国经济学家马修·卢泽蒂在接受彭博社采访时表示。“如果你退一步看，所有的总支出数据仍然看起来相当不错，” 他补充道，消费者支出和商业投资依然稳健。</p>
<p>美国和伊朗于周二晚间达成为期两周的停火，恰逢特朗普总统单方面设定的霍尔木兹海峡重新开放的最后期限。</p>
<p>不要错过：伊朗采取措施减缓霍尔木兹海峡重新开放的进程</p>
<p>——Greg Robb</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>04-08-26 1609ET</p>

<p>美联储三月份会议的纪要显示，官员们对利率变动存在分歧，许多人预计如果通胀下降可能会降息。虽然一些官员认为加息的理由充分，但大多数人对伊朗冲突背景下劳动力市场的前景表示担忧。美联储将利率维持在 3.5%-3.75%，并预测今年将降息一次，但由于油价上涨及其对家庭支出的影响，不确定性依然很高。经济学家指出，尽管存在担忧，经济表现良好</p>

<p>By Greg Robb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Greg Robb</p>
</div><p>Some monetary-policy makers saw a 'strong case' for a hike - but they were in the minority</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些货币政策制定者认为加息有 “强烈理由”——但他们属于少数派</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week it is still too soon to know the Iran war's impact on the U.S. economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周表示，目前还为时尚早，无法判断伊朗战争对美国经济的影响。</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve officials were split over whether the war with Iran would hurt the U.S. labor market or boost inflation, but more were worried about the outlook for jobs, minutes of the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting show.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储官员对伊朗战争是否会损害美国劳动力市场或推高通胀意见不一，但更多的人担心就业前景，联邦储备委员会 3 月政策会议的纪要显示。</p>
</div><p>More of the U.S. monetary-policy makers were in the camp that the next move by the Fed would be to lower interest rates. &#34;Many&#34; officials, according to the minutes, &#34;judged that, in time, it would likely become appropriate to lower the target range for the federal-funds rate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更多的美国货币政策制定者认为，美联储的下一步将是降低利率。根据纪要，“许多” 官员判断，如果通胀按预期下降，最终可能适合降低联邦基金利率的目标区间。</p>
</div><p>Only &#34;some&#34; officials judged there was a &#34;strong case&#34; for the Fed to be open to the possibility that the next move could be a rate hike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只有 “一些” 官员认为，美联储应该对下一步可能加息持开放态度，认为有 “强烈理由”。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It's encouraging that many Fed leaders still believe an interest-rate cut will happen once the gas-price inflation shock subsides,&#34; said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, in a research note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“令人鼓舞的是，许多美联储领导人仍然相信，一旦油价通胀冲击减退，降息将会发生，” 海军联邦信用合作社首席经济学家希瑟·朗在一份研究报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>Prior to the start of the war, the Fed was on a path to slowly lower rates as inflation moved back to its target. The spike in gasoline prices since the start of the conflict has threatened to upset that plan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在战争开始之前，美联储正计划在通胀回到目标时逐步降低利率。自冲突开始以来，汽油价格的飙升威胁到了这一计划。</p>
</div><p>See: Inflation isn't going to slow anytime soon, even if the Iran cease-fire holds. Here's why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>见：即使伊朗停火，通胀也不会很快减缓。这就是原因。</p>
</div><p>At their meeting held March 17-18, Fed officials kept rates steady in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% for a second straight meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell chose not to say too much about how the energy shock would affect the economy, adopting a &#34;wait and see&#34; stance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 3 月 17 日至 18 日的会议上，美联储官员连续第二次将利率维持在 3.5% 至 3.75% 的区间。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔选择不多谈能源冲击将如何影响经济，采取了 “观望” 的态度。</p>
</div><p>Fed officials stuck to a forecast of one rate cut this year, but economists think the central bank is in no rush to do anything with rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储官员坚持今年将降息一次的预测，但经济学家认为中央银行并不急于采取任何利率行动。</p>
</div><p>In their discussion on the impact of the war, &#34;most&#34; Fed officials said that a protracted conflict would soften labor-market conditions, &#34;which could warrant additional rate cuts.&#34; That's because higher oil prices (CL00) could reduce household spending power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在讨论战争影响时，“大多数” 美联储官员表示，长期冲突将削弱劳动力市场状况，“这可能需要额外的降息。” 因为更高的油价（CL00）可能会减少家庭的消费能力。</p>
</div><p>A smaller number of Fed officials made the case that the war raised the risk that inflation would remain elevated for longer than otherwise expected. That could call for rate increases to help bring inflation down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>少数美联储官员认为，战争提高了通胀在预期之外长期保持高位的风险。这可能需要加息以帮助降低通胀。</p>
</div><p>Officials concluded that it was &#34;too early to know&#34; how the conflict would affect the economy, and said it was important to remain &#34;nimble.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>官员们得出结论，关于冲突将如何影响经济 “还为时尚早”，并表示保持 “灵活” 是重要的。</p>
</div><p>The Fed's staff forecast built in a &#34;small effect&#34; on economic activity from lower equity prices and higher crude-oil prices due to the war. The staff slightly lowered its estimate for growth and said the unemployment rate would remain near its current level for most of the next year. In January, the Fed staff projected the unemployment rate would move lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储的工作人员预测，战争导致的股价下跌和原油价格上涨对经济活动的影响 “微小”。工作人员略微下调了增长预期，并表示失业率在明年大部分时间将保持在当前水平附近。今年 1 月，美联储工作人员预计失业率将下降。</p>
</div><p>In the three weeks since the Fed meeting, officials are still not sure about the outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美联储会议后的三周内，官员们仍然不确定前景。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It's an unusual time for the economy. There are substantial risks, and uncertainty is high,&#34; said New York Fed President John Williams.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这是一个经济不寻常的时期。存在重大风险，且不确定性很高，” 纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯表示。</p>
</div><p>Mark Hulbert: Interest rates are headed lower - real yields suggest a half-point Fed cut is coming</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马克·赫尔伯特：利率将走低——实际收益率表明美联储将降息半个百分点</p>
</div><p>So far, the fallout from the Middle East conflict has been smaller than anticipated, said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander, in a note to clients.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，中东冲突的影响比预期的要小，桑坦德首席美国经济学家斯蒂芬·斯坦利在给客户的报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>Worries about the labor market eased somewhat after the government reported the U.S. economy added a solid 178,000 jobs in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在政府报告美国经济在 3 月份新增了 178,000 个就业岗位后，关于劳动力市场的担忧有所缓解。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Despite all the worries ... the economy is actually performing quite well,&#34; said Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, in an interview with Bloomberg. &#34;If you take a step back, all of the aggregate spending data still looks quite good,&#34; he added, with consumer spending and business investment remaining solid.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“尽管有所有的担忧……经济实际上表现得相当不错，” 德意志银行首席美国经济学家马修·卢泽蒂在接受彭博社采访时表示。“如果你退一步看，所有的总支出数据仍然看起来相当不错，” 他补充道，消费者支出和商业投资依然稳健。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. and Iran entered into a two-week cease-fire late Tuesday, just before President Donald Trump's unilateral deadline for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz arrived.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国和伊朗于周二晚间达成为期两周的停火，恰逢特朗普总统单方面设定的霍尔木兹海峡重新开放的最后期限。</p>
</div><p>Don't miss: Iran moves to put the brakes on reopening the Strait of Hormuz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要错过：伊朗采取措施减缓霍尔木兹海峡重新开放的进程</p>
</div><p>-Greg Robb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>——Greg Robb</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>04-08-26 1609ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>04-08-26 1609ET</p>
</div>

Many Fed officials think rate cuts still likely, March meeting minutes show

- 美联储官员对伊朗战争对美国经济的影响存在分歧。  
- 预计如果通胀下降，可能会降息，但也有人担心通胀上升。  
- 派系争论表明，未来经济前景依然不明朗。

三月会议纪要显示，许多美联储官员认为降息仍然有可能