<p>DAX 指数在周四回落超过 1.37%，抹去了前一天的一些涨幅，从本周高点€24,140 跌至€23,755。这一回落发生在美伊停火进展停滞以及梅赛德斯发布疲软业绩的背景下。</p>
<p><strong>美伊停火与梅赛德斯 - 奔驰交付</strong></p>
<p>德国 DAX 40 指数回落，反映出其他欧洲指数如 CAC 40、FTSE 100 和 IBEX 40 的表现。</p>
<p>这一回落发生在对美伊停火可能无法维持的风险加剧之际，尤其是以色列的因素。以色列继续轰炸黎巴嫩，而伊朗则继续关闭霍尔木兹海峡。</p>
<p>在 Truth Social 的帖子中，特朗普坚持认为美国军队将留在该地区，直到达成协议。</p>
<p>此外，大多数分析师认为停火不会持久，这也解释了为什么周四原油价格继续上涨，西德克萨斯中质油（WTI）接近$100。</p>
<p>德国对飙升的能源价格高度敏感，因为它进口所有能源。其大部分石油和天然气来自中东，而中东的供应已经大幅减少。</p>
<p>飙升的能源价格影响了德国工业部门，像巴斯夫这样的顶级公司正在将其制造基地转移到中国。</p>
<p>与此同时，DAX 指数下跌，因为汽车制造商继续面临困境。梅赛德斯 - 奔驰的一份报告显示，其第一季度销售下降，主要受中国市场影响。</p>
<p>其第一季度销售下降 6%，至 499,700 辆，中国市场销售下降 27%。这一疲软表现显著，甚至比之前的 19% 还要糟糕。</p>
<p>梅赛德斯 - 奔驰和其他顶级欧洲汽车制造商在中国面临困境，当地品牌如蔚来汽车、理想汽车、比亚迪和小鹏汽车持续获得市场份额。</p>
<p>与此同时，该公司在美国面临挑战，特朗普对外国进口征收了高额关税。</p>
<p>因此，梅赛德斯 - 奔驰的股价在交付数据公布后下跌了 2.2%。大众汽车和戴姆勒卡车的股价分别下跌超过 2.54% 和 2.2%。在指数中，其他一些主要滞后者包括 SAP、莱茵金属、GEA 集团、空客和阿迪达斯。</p>
<p><strong>DAX 指数技术分析</strong></p>
<p><em>DAX 指数图表 - 来源：TradingView</em></p>
<p>三日图显示，DAX 40 指数在周三因美伊停火后全球股市上涨而跳涨。</p>
<p>这一反弹是短暂的，随后跌至€23,795。现在它正试图填补周三形成的缺口，仍低于 100 日指数移动平均线（EMA）。</p>
<p>超级趋势指标仍在红色区域，而相对强弱指数（RSI）已经回落，从 60 降至 54。</p>
<p>因此，指数在短期内可能继续下跌，卖方的下一个关键目标是€23,000。最终在全面承诺结束战争后将反弹。如果发生这种情况，将反弹至关键阻力位€25,000。</p>

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<p>DAX 指数下跌 1.37%，至 23,755 欧元，受到美国与伊朗停火进展停滞和梅赛德斯 - 奔驰销售疲软的影响，后者报告第一季度销售下降 6%，尤其是在中国。该指数的下跌反映了对能源价格和地缘政治紧张局势的广泛担忧，分析师预测将持续波动。梅赛德斯 - 奔驰的股票下跌 2.2%，其他汽车制造商也出现下滑。DAX 指数仍低于关键移动平均线，显示出进一步下跌的潜力，目标为 23,000 欧元，若实现稳定，可能反弹至 25,000 欧元</p>

<p>The DAX Index pulled back by over 1.37% on Thursday, erasing some of the gains made a day earlier. It dropped to €23,755 from this week's high of €24,140. This retreated as the US-Iran ceasefire stalled and as Mercedes published weak results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DAX 指数在周四回落超过 1.37%，抹去了前一天的一些涨幅，从本周高点€24,140 跌至€23,755。这一回落发生在美伊停火进展停滞以及梅赛德斯发布疲软业绩的背景下。</p>
</div><p><strong>US-Iran ceasefire and Mercedes-Benz deliveries</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美伊停火与梅赛德斯 - 奔驰交付</strong></p>
</div><p>The German DAX 40 Index retreated, mirroring the performance of other European indices like CAC 40, FTSE 100, and IBEX 40.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国 DAX 40 指数回落，反映出其他欧洲指数如 CAC 40、FTSE 100 和 IBEX 40 的表现。</p>
</div><p>This retreat happened as concerns rose amid the ongoing risk that the ceasefire between the US and Iran will not hold, especially because of Israel. Israel has continued to bomb Lebanon, while Iran has continued to shut the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一回落发生在对美伊停火可能无法维持的风险加剧之际，尤其是以色列的因素。以色列继续轰炸黎巴嫩，而伊朗则继续关闭霍尔木兹海峡。</p>
</div><p>In a Truth Social post, Trump maintained that the US military will remain in the region until a deal is reached.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Truth Social 的帖子中，特朗普坚持认为美国军队将留在该地区，直到达成协议。</p>
</div><p>Also, most analysts believe that the ceasefire will not last, which explains why crude oil prices continued rising on Thursday, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) nearing $100.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，大多数分析师认为停火不会持久，这也解释了为什么周四原油价格继续上涨，西德克萨斯中质油（WTI）接近$100。</p>
</div><p>Germany is highly exposed to the soaring energy prices because it imports all its energy. Most of its oil and gas comes from the Middle East, where supply has largely dried.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国对飙升的能源价格高度敏感，因为它进口所有能源。其大部分石油和天然气来自中东，而中东的供应已经大幅减少。</p>
</div><p>Soaring energy prices have affected the German industrial sector, with top companies like BASF shifting their manufacturing base to China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>飙升的能源价格影响了德国工业部门，像巴斯夫这样的顶级公司正在将其制造基地转移到中国。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the DAX Index dropped as automakers continued struggling. A report by Mercedes-Benz showed that its sales dropped in the first quarter, led by China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，DAX 指数下跌，因为汽车制造商继续面临困境。梅赛德斯 - 奔驰的一份报告显示，其第一季度销售下降，主要受中国市场影响。</p>
</div><p>Its sales dropped by 6% to 499,700 in Q1, with sales in China falling by 27%. This weakness is notable as it was worse than the 19% it experienced in the previous one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其第一季度销售下降 6%，至 499,700 辆，中国市场销售下降 27%。这一疲软表现显著，甚至比之前的 19% 还要糟糕。</p>
</div><p>Mercedes-Benz and other top European automakers are struggling in China, where local brands like Nio, Li Auto, BYD, and XPeng have continued to gain market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>梅赛德斯 - 奔驰和其他顶级欧洲汽车制造商在中国面临困境，当地品牌如蔚来汽车、理想汽车、比亚迪和小鹏汽车持续获得市场份额。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the company faced a challenge in the United States, where Donald Trump imposed large tariffs against foreign imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，该公司在美国面临挑战，特朗普对外国进口征收了高额关税。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the Mercedes-Benz stock price dropped by 2.2% after its delivery numbers. Volkswagen and Daimler Truck stocks fell by over 2.54% and 2.2%. Some of the other top laggards in the index were firms like SAP, Rheinmetall, GEA Group, Airbus, and Adidas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，梅赛德斯 - 奔驰的股价在交付数据公布后下跌了 2.2%。大众汽车和戴姆勒卡车的股价分别下跌超过 2.54% 和 2.2%。在指数中，其他一些主要滞后者包括 SAP、莱茵金属、GEA 集团、空客和阿迪达斯。</p>
</div><p><strong>DAX Index technical analysis</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>DAX 指数技术分析</strong></p>
</div><p><em>DAX Index chart - Source: TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>DAX 指数图表 - 来源：TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>The three-day chart shows that the DAX 40 Index jumped on Wednesday as global stocks jumped after the ceasefire between the US and Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三日图显示，DAX 40 指数在周三因美伊停火后全球股市上涨而跳涨。</p>
</div><p>This rebound was short-lived as it dropped to €23,795. It is now attempting to fill the gap that formed on Wednesday. It remains below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一反弹是短暂的，随后跌至€23,795。现在它正试图填补周三形成的缺口，仍低于 100 日指数移动平均线（EMA）。</p>
</div><p>The Supertrend indicator remains in the red, while the The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned around and moved from 60 to 54.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>超级趋势指标仍在红色区域，而相对强弱指数（RSI）已经回落，从 60 降至 54。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the index may continue falling in the near term as sellers target the next key target being at €23,000. It will eventually rebound after a full commitment to end the war. If this happens, it will rebound to the key resistance level at €25,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，指数在短期内可能继续下跌，卖方的下一个关键目标是€23,000。最终在全面承诺结束战争后将反弹。如果发生这种情况，将反弹至关键阻力位€25,000。</p>
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由于梅赛德斯 - 奔驰的销量大幅下滑，DAX 指数在脆弱的停火协议下面临风险