<p>华盛顿，4 月 9 日（路透社）——美国 2 月份的通胀如预期有所上升，并可能在 3 月份因与伊朗的战争进一步上升，这一趋势预计将阻止美联储在短期内降息。</p><p>美国商务部经济分析局周四表示，个人消费支出物价指数在 2 月份上升了 0.4%，此前 1 月份的数据未经修正为增长 0.3%。路透社调查的经济学家预计 PCE 物价指数将增长 0.4%。截至 2 月的 12 个月内，PCE 通胀率上涨了 2.8%，与 1 月份的增幅相同。</p><p>经济分析局仍在处理因去年政府停摆导致的数据发布延迟问题。在战争之前，因唐纳德·特朗普总统的进口关税，美国通胀已经处于较高水平。</p><p>美以与伊朗的战争推高了全球油价，使全国汽油零售价格平均涨至每加仑超过 4 美元，为三年来的最高水平。经济学家预计 3 月的数据将更加显著地反映该冲突对通胀的影响。特朗普周二宣布了为期两周的停火，条件是德黑兰重新开放被封锁的霍尔木兹海峡，该事件也影响了化肥及其他商品的运输。这些干扰预计将推高食品价格。剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分后，PCE 物价指数在 2 月份增长了 0.4%，连续第三个月呈同样增长幅度。截至 2 月的 12 个月内，所谓的核心 PCE 通胀率上涨至 3.0%，此前 1 月为 3.1%。</p><p>同比核心 PCE 通胀率的放缓反映出去年较高的数值从计算中剔除。</p><p>美国中央银行根据 PCE 物价指标追踪其 2% 的通胀目标。经济学家表示，每月 PCE 通胀率需要持续增长 0.2%，才能将通胀恢复到目标水平。美联储 3 月 17-18 日的政策会议记录显示，越来越多的美联储决策者在上个月感到可能需要加息以对抗通胀。</p><p>会议记录还显示，“与会者指出，中东地区的持续冲突可能会导致能源价格更加持久地上涨，而这些较高的投入成本更可能渗透到核心通胀中。”</p><p>美联储将其基准隔夜利率维持在 3.50%-3.75% 的范围内。今年降息的可能性已大幅减小。高价格是 2 月支出增长的部分原因。占经济活动超过三分之二的消费者支出在 2 月份增长了 0.5%，此前 1 月份增长了 0.3%。经济学家预测支出将增长 0.5%。</p><p>高昂的汽油价格可能会抑制在其他类别的支出，但今年的大规模退税可能为低收入家庭提供某种缓冲。战争导致 3 月股市蒸发约 3.2 万亿美元，这可能迫使高收入家庭削减支出。他们一直是消费和整体经济的主要驱动力。</p>

3 倍做多纳指 ETF - ProShares

金融业 ETF - SPDR

美国经纪商&证券交易所 ETF - iShares

<p>WASHINGTON, April 9 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation increased as expected in February and likely rose further in March amid the war with Iran, a trend that is expected to discourage the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates for a while.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华盛顿，4 月 9 日（路透社）——美国 2 月份的通胀如预期有所上升，并可能在 3 月份因与伊朗的战争进一步上升，这一趋势预计将阻止美联储在短期内降息。</p></div><p>The personal consumption expenditures price index climbed 0.4% after an unrevised 0.3 gain in January, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PCE price index rising 0.4%. In the 12 months through February, PCE inflation advanced 2.8% after increasing by the same margin in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国商务部经济分析局周四表示，个人消费支出物价指数在 2 月份上升了 0.4%，此前 1 月份的数据未经修正为增长 0.3%。路透社调查的经济学家预计 PCE 物价指数将增长 0.4%。截至 2 月的 12 个月内，PCE 通胀率上涨了 2.8%，与 1 月份的增幅相同。</p></div><p>The BEA is still catching up on data releases following delays caused by last year’s government shutdown. Inflation was already elevated before the war, largely because of President Donald Trump’s import duties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济分析局仍在处理因去年政府停摆导致的数据发布延迟问题。在战争之前，因唐纳德·特朗普总统的进口关税，美国通胀已经处于较高水平。</p></div><p>The U.S.-Israel war with Iran boosted global oil prices and sent the national average gasoline retail price soaring above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years. Economists expect the inflation fallout from the conflict, which started at the end of February, would be more pronounced in March’s data. Trump on Tuesday announced a two-week ceasefire on condition of Tehran reopening the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, which has also affected shipments of fertilizers and other goods. The disruptions are expected to raise food prices. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index increased 0.4% in February, rising by the same margin for a third straight month. In the 12 months through February, so-called core PCE inflation advanced 3.0% following a 3.1% increase in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美以与伊朗的战争推高了全球油价，使全国汽油零售价格平均涨至每加仑超过 4 美元，为三年来的最高水平。经济学家预计 3 月的数据将更加显著地反映该冲突对通胀的影响。特朗普周二宣布了为期两周的停火，条件是德黑兰重新开放被封锁的霍尔木兹海峡，该事件也影响了化肥及其他商品的运输。这些干扰预计将推高食品价格。剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分后，PCE 物价指数在 2 月份增长了 0.4%，连续第三个月呈同样增长幅度。截至 2 月的 12 个月内，所谓的核心 PCE 通胀率上涨至 3.0%，此前 1 月为 3.1%。</p></div><p>The slowdown in year-on-year core PCE inflation reflected last year’s high readings dropping out of the calculation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同比核心 PCE 通胀率的放缓反映出去年较高的数值从计算中剔除。</p></div><p>The U.S. central bank tracks the PCE price measures for its 2% inflation target. Economists say monthly PCE inflation needs to increase 0.2% for a sustained period to bring inflation back to target. Minutes of the Fed’s March 17-18 policy meeting released on Wednesday showed a growing group of Federal Reserve policymakers felt last month that interest rate hikes might be needed to counter inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国中央银行根据 PCE 物价指标追踪其 2% 的通胀目标。经济学家表示，每月 PCE 通胀率需要持续增长 0.2%，才能将通胀恢复到目标水平。美联储 3 月 17-18 日的政策会议记录显示，越来越多的美联储决策者在上个月感到可能需要加息以对抗通胀。</p></div><p>They also showed “participants noted that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East would likely lead to more persistent increases in energy prices and that these higher input costs would be more likely to pass through to core inflation.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>会议记录还显示，“与会者指出，中东地区的持续冲突可能会导致能源价格更加持久地上涨，而这些较高的投入成本更可能渗透到核心通胀中。”</p></div><p>The Fed left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75%. The odds of a rate cut this year have greatly diminished. High prices accounted for some of the rise in spending in February. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.5% after increasing 0.3% in January. Economists had forecast spending advancing 0.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储将其基准隔夜利率维持在 3.50%-3.75% 的范围内。今年降息的可能性已大幅减小。高价格是 2 月支出增长的部分原因。占经济活动超过三分之二的消费者支出在 2 月份增长了 0.5%，此前 1 月份增长了 0.3%。经济学家预测支出将增长 0.5%。</p></div><p>Expensive gasoline could pull spending away from other categories, though large tax refunds this year could provide lower-income households with some cushion. The war wiped off about $3.2 trillion from the stock market in March, which could force higher-income households to cut back on spending. They have been the main drivers of spending and the overall economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高昂的汽油价格可能会抑制在其他类别的支出，但今年的大规模退税可能为低收入家庭提供某种缓冲。战争导致 3 月股市蒸发约 3.2 万亿美元，这可能迫使高收入家庭削减支出。他们一直是消费和整体经济的主要驱动力。</p></div>

US PCE inflation picks up in February; consumer spending solid

- 美国 2 月 PCE 通胀上涨 0.4%， 预计 3 月将进一步上升。  
- 伊朗战争推动全球油价上涨，消费者支出在 2 月增长 0.5%。  
- 美联储可能因通胀压力延迟降息，基准利率维持在 3.50%-3.75%。

美国 PCE 通胀数据 2 月上升；消费者支出稳健