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<p>Circle Internet Group 的股票在周四大幅下跌，此前 Compass Point 的分析师下调了该股票评级，理由是对其核心 USDC 业务即将面临的利润压缩表示担忧。</p>
<p>该股票下跌了 7.44%，至 87.41 美元，扭转了 2026 年截至周三上涨 19% 后的部分近期涨幅。</p>
<p>Compass Point 将其评级从中性下调至卖出，并将目标价从 79 美元下调至 77 美元，警告称近期的增长趋势可能无法转化为更强的盈利能力。</p>
<h2>增长转向低利润渠道</h2>
<p>尽管 USDC——该公司的旗舰美元挂钩稳定币——的供应保持韧性，但分析师强调了增长发生地的结构性转变。</p>
<p>根据 Compass Point 的数据，自 2 月初以来，近 80% 的 USDC 供应增长来自 Sky、Binance 和 Ethena 等平台。</p>
<p>这些合作关系涉及分销协议，减少了 Circle 从 USDC 储备中产生的利息收入份额。</p>
<p>Circle 在这些网络之外持有的 USDC 赚取更高的利润，称为 “离线供应”。</p>
<p>因此，向以合作伙伴驱动的增长转变正在稀释盈利能力，即使整体采用率上升。</p>
<p>这种动态标志着与以往加密货币下跌的不同，以往 USDC 供应通常会下降。</p>
<p>在当前环境中，收益分享安排支持了流通水平，但同时对利润施加压力。</p>
<h2>盈利风险在业绩前加剧</h2>
<p>分析师预计这些趋势将对即将发布的业绩产生影响，Compass Point 预测盈利能力将下降。</p>
<p>“CRCL 的第一季度业绩可能无法满足上升的预期，” Ed Engel 写道。“展望第二季度，合作平台上的 USDC 仍高于第一季度的平均水平。因此，如果当前趋势持续，我们预计毛利率将继续承压。”</p>
<p>该公司估计 Circle 的息税折旧摊销前利润在第一季度将比上一季度下降 19%。其对 2027 财年 EBITDA 的预测也比华尔街共识预期低 20%。</p>
<p>这一警告是在投资者越来越关注增长质量而不仅仅是 USDC 供应扩张的背景下发出的。</p>
<h2>利率敏感性和多元化挑战</h2>
<p>Circle 的商业模式仍然严重依赖于 USDC 背后储备产生的利息收入。在 2025 年第四季度，储备收入占总收入的 [MONEY value=&#34;733000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;]，总收入为 [MONEY value=&#34;770000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;]，突显了其对现行利率的依赖。</p>
<p>尽管 USDC 流通在此期间增长了 72%，达到 [MONEY value=&#34;75300000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;]，但储备回报率的下降部分抵消了这一好处，突显了公司对宏观经济条件的暴露。</p>
<p>这种利率敏感性为盈利引入了波动性，使 Circle 更像是一个依赖收益环境的金融平台，而不是传统的科技公司。</p>
<p>为了解决这一问题，公司正在扩展到新的领域，包括 Circle Payments Network、StableFX 和其 Arc 区块链基础设施。</p>
<p>然而，非利息收入仍占总收入的相对小部分，表明多元化仍处于早期阶段。</p>
<p>尽管 Compass Point 的前景谨慎，但更广泛的华尔街情绪仍然较为平衡。</p>
<p>在 FactSet 追踪的 27 位分析师中，48% 将该股票评级为买入，44% 给予持有评级，平均目标价为 131.29 美元。</p>
<p>尽管如此，短期前景仍取决于 Circle 能否在不进一步侵蚀利润的情况下维持增长——这一挑战可能会影响未来几个月的投资者情绪。</p>
<p>该文章的标题为 “Circle 股票下跌，分析师警告利润压缩即将到来”，首次发布于 Invezz。</p>

CRCL

CRCG

CRCD

CRCA

<p>Circle Internet Group 的股价下跌 7.44%，至 87.41 美元，此前 Compass Point 的分析师将该股票评级下调至 “卖出”，理由是对其 USDC 业务的利润压缩表示担忧。此次下调反映了对近期增长趋势可能不会带来更强盈利能力的担忧，因为增长转向了低利润渠道。分析师预测第一季度的 EBITDA 将下降 19%，2027 财年的预估将下降 20%。尽管华尔街的情绪较为平衡，但短期前景取决于 Circle 能否在不进一步侵蚀利润的情况下维持增长</p>

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<p>Shares of Circle Internet Group fell sharply on Thursday after analysts at Compass Point downgraded the stock, citing concerns over a looming margin squeeze tied to its core USDC business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Circle Internet Group 的股票在周四大幅下跌，此前 Compass Point 的分析师下调了该股票评级，理由是对其核心 USDC 业务即将面临的利润压缩表示担忧。</p>
</div><p>The stock declined 7.44% to $87.41, reversing some of its recent gains after rising 19% so far in 2026 till Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股票下跌了 7.44%，至 87.41 美元，扭转了 2026 年截至周三上涨 19% 后的部分近期涨幅。</p>
</div><p>Compass Point cut its rating to Sell from Neutral and trimmed its price target to $77 from $79, warning that recent growth trends may not translate into stronger profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Compass Point 将其评级从中性下调至卖出，并将目标价从 79 美元下调至 77 美元，警告称近期的增长趋势可能无法转化为更强的盈利能力。</p>
</div><h2>Growth shifts toward lower-margin channels</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>增长转向低利润渠道</h2>
</div><p>While supply of USDC—the company’s flagship dollar-pegged stablecoin—has remained resilient, analysts highlighted a structural shift in where that growth is occurring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 USDC——该公司的旗舰美元挂钩稳定币——的供应保持韧性，但分析师强调了增长发生地的结构性转变。</p>
</div><p>According to Compass Point, just under 80% of USDC supply growth since early February has come from platforms such as Sky, Binance, and Ethena.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Compass Point 的数据，自 2 月初以来，近 80% 的 USDC 供应增长来自 Sky、Binance 和 Ethena 等平台。</p>
</div><p>These partnerships involve distribution agreements that reduce Circle’s share of interest income generated from USDC reserves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些合作关系涉及分销协议，减少了 Circle 从 USDC 储备中产生的利息收入份额。</p>
</div><p>Circle earns higher margins on USDC held outside these networks, referred to as “off-platform” supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Circle 在这些网络之外持有的 USDC 赚取更高的利润，称为 “离线供应”。</p>
</div><p>The shift toward partnership-driven growth is therefore diluting profitability even as overall adoption rises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，向以合作伙伴驱动的增长转变正在稀释盈利能力，即使整体采用率上升。</p>
</div><p>This dynamic marks a departure from previous crypto downturns, when USDC supply typically declined.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种动态标志着与以往加密货币下跌的不同，以往 USDC 供应通常会下降。</p>
</div><p>In the current environment, yield-sharing arrangements are supporting circulation levels but simultaneously pressuring margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在当前环境中，收益分享安排支持了流通水平，但同时对利润施加压力。</p>
</div><h2>Earnings risks build ahead of results</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>盈利风险在业绩前加剧</h2>
</div><p>Analysts expect these trends to weigh on upcoming earnings, with Compass Point forecasting a decline in profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预计这些趋势将对即将发布的业绩产生影响，Compass Point 预测盈利能力将下降。</p>
</div><p>“CRCL’s 1Q results could underwhelm rising expectations,” wrote Ed Engel. “Looking into 2Q, USDC across partnership platforms remains above 1Q’s average level. Therefore, we expect gross margins to remain under pressure if current trends persist.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“CRCL 的第一季度业绩可能无法满足上升的预期，” Ed Engel 写道。“展望第二季度，合作平台上的 USDC 仍高于第一季度的平均水平。因此，如果当前趋势持续，我们预计毛利率将继续承压。”</p>
</div><p>The firm estimates that Circle’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization will fall 19% in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter. Its forecast for fiscal 2027 EBITDA is also 20% below Wall Street consensus estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司估计 Circle 的息税折旧摊销前利润在第一季度将比上一季度下降 19%。其对 2027 财年 EBITDA 的预测也比华尔街共识预期低 20%。</p>
</div><p>The warning comes as investors increasingly focus on the quality of growth rather than just expansion in USDC supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一警告是在投资者越来越关注增长质量而不仅仅是 USDC 供应扩张的背景下发出的。</p>
</div><h2>Rate sensitivity and diversification challenges</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利率敏感性和多元化挑战</h2>
</div><p>Circle’s business model remains heavily tied to interest income generated from reserves backing USDC. In the fourth quarter of 2025, reserve income accounted for [MONEY value=&#34;733000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;] out of total revenue of [MONEY value=&#34;770000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;], underscoring its reliance on prevailing interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Circle 的商业模式仍然严重依赖于 USDC 背后储备产生的利息收入。在 2025 年第四季度，储备收入占总收入的 [MONEY value=&#34;733000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;]，总收入为 [MONEY value=&#34;770000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;]，突显了其对现行利率的依赖。</p>
</div><p>While USDC circulation grew 72% to [MONEY value=&#34;75300000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;] during the period, a decline in reserve return rates partially offset the benefits, highlighting the company’s exposure to macroeconomic conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 USDC 流通在此期间增长了 72%，达到 [MONEY value=&#34;75300000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;]，但储备回报率的下降部分抵消了这一好处，突显了公司对宏观经济条件的暴露。</p>
</div><p>This rate sensitivity introduces volatility into earnings, positioning Circle more like a financial platform dependent on yield environments than a traditional technology firm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种利率敏感性为盈利引入了波动性，使 Circle 更像是一个依赖收益环境的金融平台，而不是传统的科技公司。</p>
</div><p>To address this, the company is expanding into new areas, including Circle Payments Network, StableFX, and its Arc blockchain infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了解决这一问题，公司正在扩展到新的领域，包括 Circle Payments Network、StableFX 和其 Arc 区块链基础设施。</p>
</div><p>However, non-interest income remains a relatively small portion of total revenue, indicating that diversification is still in its early stages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，非利息收入仍占总收入的相对小部分，表明多元化仍处于早期阶段。</p>
</div><p>Despite the cautious outlook from Compass Point, broader Wall Street sentiment remains more balanced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Compass Point 的前景谨慎，但更广泛的华尔街情绪仍然较为平衡。</p>
</div><p>Of 27 analysts tracked by FactSet, 48% rate the stock a Buy, while 44% have a Hold rating, with an average price target of $131.29.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 FactSet 追踪的 27 位分析师中，48% 将该股票评级为买入，44% 给予持有评级，平均目标价为 131.29 美元。</p>
</div><p>Still, the near-term outlook hinges on whether Circle can sustain growth without further eroding margins—a challenge that could shape investor sentiment in the months ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，短期前景仍取决于 Circle 能否在不进一步侵蚀利润的情况下维持增长——这一挑战可能会影响未来几个月的投资者情绪。</p>
</div><p>The post Circle stock drops as analysts warn of margin squeeze ahead appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该文章的标题为 “Circle 股票下跌，分析师警告利润压缩即将到来”，首次发布于 Invezz。</p>
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Circle 的股票下跌，分析师警告称未来可能面临利润率挤压