<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-bars-on-a-work-desk.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-bars-on-a-work-desk.jpg"/></p>
<p>摩根士丹利指出，黄金作为投资组合避风港的传统角色正受到更严格的审视，该行认为，黄金近期的价格走势与投资者通常对经典避险资产的预期相比，更加复杂。</p>
<p>该行的观点是在过去六周内，因伊朗冲突、利率预期变化和更广泛的市场动荡而导致商品市场波动加剧后提出的。</p>
<p>尽管周三达成了停火协议，但这并未完全恢复市场对黄金防御性表现的信心。</p>
<p>在 2026 年初创下历史新高后，黄金近期大幅回落，因美元走强以及投资者对更不确定的利率前景进行调整，价格承压。</p>
<p>对于摩根士丹利而言，这一逆转很重要，因为它突显了黄金并未始终如投资者所期待的那样对地缘政治压力作出反应。</p>
<p>黄金并未持续吸引避险资金流入，反而在某些时候因流动性压力、市场定位和宏观因素（特别是实际利率和美元）而走弱。</p>
<p>从这个意义上说，摩根士丹利的论点并不是黄金完全失去相关性，而是市场在定价和表达安全性方面发生了变化。</p>
<h2>为什么黄金的角色受到质疑</h2>
<p>该行的核心观点是，黄金的短期表现似乎越来越受到宏观因素和大型机构资金流动的影响，而不仅仅是简单的避险动态。</p>
<p>分析师表示，价格走势受到中央银行需求、交易所交易基金的定位以及货币和利率预期变化的影响，而不是广泛的本能性涌入防御性资产。</p>
<p>这种变化很重要，因为它可能使黄金的表现不再像简单的对冲工具，而更像是对流动性条件和投资组合轮换敏感的资产。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利更为谨慎的立场反映了这一变化的动态：黄金可能仍然提供长期的多样化收益，但其短期表现作为地缘政治对冲工具的可预测性正在降低。</p>
<p>在实际操作中，该行认为投资者应该更加挑剔。</p>
<p>黄金仍然可以作为长期的价值储存，但近期的走势表明，它不再是防御性金属交易中最清晰或最直接的表达。</p>
<h2>为什么白银看起来更具吸引力</h2>
<p>摩根士丹利对白银持更为积极的看法，认为尽管近期波动，白银仍有更强的基本面支撑。</p>
<p>白银已从 2026 年初的高点回落，但该行和行业数据表明，基本的供需动态仍在持续支撑。</p>
<p>主要原因之一是多年来持续存在的供应短缺，这使得即使在价格波动时，实物市场也变得紧张。</p>
<p>与此同时，工业需求仍然是一个关键支柱，尤其来自太阳能和电子等行业，尽管效率提升和替代趋势开始减缓使用增长。</p>
<p>这并不意味着白银没有投机性波动。</p>
<p>早期的上涨因投资者的定位而被放大，市场的波动性仍然是一个特征。</p>
<p>尽管如此，白银似乎仍然比黄金更具实质性的看涨理由，因为其前景不仅受到情绪的支持，还受到结构性需求和供应受限的支撑。</p>
<h2>为什么铝脱颖而出</h2>
<p>铝是摩根士丹利看到更清晰看涨理由的另一种金属。</p>
<p>该行的积极观点主要基于供应方面的限制和生产的高能耗，这限制了产出对需求的快速响应。</p>
<p>伦敦金属交易所的铝价在最近几个月保持支撑，分析师指出，即使在更广泛的宏观不确定性持续的情况下，供应条件仍然紧张。</p>
<p>中国的产能控制和高电力成本对冶炼厂的压力是这一故事的核心。</p>
<p>某些地区的生产中断以及重新启动闲置产能的困难加剧了供应紧张。</p>
<p>由于铝的生产与电力的可用性和定价密切相关，供应响应往往是渐进的而非即时的。</p>
<p>因此，即使更广泛的经济条件放缓，价格仍可能保持相对韧性。</p>
<h2>为什么摩根士丹利对铜持更平衡的看法</h2>
<p>相比之下，摩根士丹利对铜持更为平衡的看法。</p>
<p>尽管该金属在电气化和能源转型趋势中仍保持强劲的长期支撑，但该行认为短期背景受到需求不确定性和市场动态变化的影响，表现更加复杂。</p>
<p>这使得铜与供应受限的铝故事或结构性紧张的白银市场有所不同。</p>
<p>铜仍然是一种具有长期吸引力的战略金属，但短期价格方向可能不那么明确。</p>
<p>更广泛的结论是，投资者不再能将金属市场视为因相同原因而波动。</p>
<p>黄金的短期表现越来越受到宏观因素驱动，白银受到更紧张的基本面支撑，铝受益于供应和电力限制，而铜则处于强劲的长期需求与更不确定的短期前景之间。</p>
<p>对于投资组合经理而言，这意味着金属投资的下一个阶段可能不再是拥有一个通用的对冲工具，而是识别真正的结构性压力点所在。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利质疑黄金的避险角色，支持另一种金属的文章首发于 Invezz。</p>

山东黄金

纽蒙特矿业

湖南白银

<p>摩根士丹利对黄金作为避险资产的有效性表示担忧，指出近期价格波动受到宏观经济因素和机构资金流动的影响，而非传统的防御性行为。该银行建议，尽管黄金仍可能提供长期的多样化，但其短期表现则不那么可预测。相比之下，摩根士丹利对白银持更乐观态度，认为其受到供需动态和工业需求的支持，并对铝的前景持看涨态度，原因在于供应限制。铜的前景则在需求不确定性中保持平衡</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-bars-on-a-work-desk.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-bars-on-a-work-desk.jpg"/></p>
<p>Gold’s traditional role as a portfolio shelter is coming under closer scrutiny, according to Morgan Stanley, which argues the metal’s recent price action has been more mixed than investors typically expect from a classic haven.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利指出，黄金作为投资组合避风港的传统角色正受到更严格的审视，该行认为，黄金近期的价格走势与投资者通常对经典避险资产的预期相比，更加复杂。</p>
</div><p>The bank’s view comes after a volatile stretch across commodities over the past six weeks, driven by anxiety over conflict involving Iran, shifts in interest rate expectations and broader market turbulence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该行的观点是在过去六周内，因伊朗冲突、利率预期变化和更广泛的市场动荡而导致商品市场波动加剧后提出的。</p>
</div><p>Although a ceasefire was agreed on Wednesday, that has not fully restored confidence in gold’s defensive behaviour.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管周三达成了停火协议，但这并未完全恢复市场对黄金防御性表现的信心。</p>
</div><p>The metal has pulled back sharply in recent weeks after rallying to record highs earlier in 2026, with prices coming under pressure as the US dollar strengthened and investors adjusted to a more uncertain rate outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 年初创下历史新高后，黄金近期大幅回落，因美元走强以及投资者对更不确定的利率前景进行调整，价格承压。</p>
</div><p>For Morgan Stanley, that reversal matters because it highlights how gold has not consistently responded to geopolitical stress in the way investors might typically expect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于摩根士丹利而言，这一逆转很重要，因为它突显了黄金并未始终如投资者所期待的那样对地缘政治压力作出反应。</p>
</div><p>Instead of attracting uninterrupted haven flows, gold has at times weakened as liquidity pressures, positioning and macro factors — particularly real rates and the dollar — have taken precedence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金并未持续吸引避险资金流入，反而在某些时候因流动性压力、市场定位和宏观因素（特别是实际利率和美元）而走弱。</p>
</div><p>In that sense, Morgan Stanley’s argument is less about gold losing relevance altogether and more about the market changing the way it prices and expresses safety.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从这个意义上说，摩根士丹利的论点并不是黄金完全失去相关性，而是市场在定价和表达安全性方面发生了变化。</p>
</div><h2>Why gold’s role is being questioned</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么黄金的角色受到质疑</h2>
</div><p>The bank’s core point is that gold’s near-term performance appears increasingly influenced by macro forces and large institutional flows rather than a simple flight-to-safety dynamic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该行的核心观点是，黄金的短期表现似乎越来越受到宏观因素和大型机构资金流动的影响，而不仅仅是简单的避险动态。</p>
</div><p>Analysts say price action is being shaped by central bank demand, exchange-traded fund positioning and shifts in currency and rate expectations, rather than by a broad, instinctive rush into defensive assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师表示，价格走势受到中央银行需求、交易所交易基金的定位以及货币和利率预期变化的影响，而不是广泛的本能性涌入防御性资产。</p>
</div><p>That shift matters because it can make gold behave less like a straightforward hedge and more like an asset sensitive to liquidity conditions and portfolio rotation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种变化很重要，因为它可能使黄金的表现不再像简单的对冲工具，而更像是对流动性条件和投资组合轮换敏感的资产。</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley’s more cautious stance reflects this changing dynamic: gold may still offer long-term diversification benefits, but its short-term behaviour is proving less predictable as a geopolitical hedge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利更为谨慎的立场反映了这一变化的动态：黄金可能仍然提供长期的多样化收益，但其短期表现作为地缘政治对冲工具的可预测性正在降低。</p>
</div><p>In practical terms, the bank is arguing that investors should be more selective.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在实际操作中，该行认为投资者应该更加挑剔。</p>
</div><p>Gold can still serve as a store of value over time, but recent moves suggest it is no longer the clearest or most immediate expression of a defensive metals trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金仍然可以作为长期的价值储存，但近期的走势表明，它不再是防御性金属交易中最清晰或最直接的表达。</p>
</div><h2>Why silver looks more compelling</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么白银看起来更具吸引力</h2>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley is more constructive on silver, which it sees as having a stronger fundamental underpinning despite recent volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利对白银持更为积极的看法，认为尽管近期波动，白银仍有更强的基本面支撑。</p>
</div><p>Silver has retreated from its early-2026 highs, but the bank and industry data point to continued support from underlying supply-demand dynamics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白银已从 2026 年初的高点回落，但该行和行业数据表明，基本的供需动态仍在持续支撑。</p>
</div><p>One of the main reasons is the persistence of supply deficits over several years, which has tightened the physical market even when prices have been volatile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要原因之一是多年来持续存在的供应短缺，这使得即使在价格波动时，实物市场也变得紧张。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, industrial demand remains a key pillar, particularly from sectors such as solar and electronics, even as efficiency gains and substitution trends begin to moderate usage growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，工业需求仍然是一个关键支柱，尤其来自太阳能和电子等行业，尽管效率提升和替代趋势开始减缓使用增长。</p>
</div><p>That does not mean silver is free from speculative swings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不意味着白银没有投机性波动。</p>
</div><p>Earlier surges were amplified by investor positioning, and volatility remains a feature of the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>早期的上涨因投资者的定位而被放大，市场的波动性仍然是一个特征。</p>
</div><p>Even so, silver still appears to have a more tangible bullish case than gold because its outlook is supported not only by sentiment, but also by structural demand and constrained supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，白银似乎仍然比黄金更具实质性的看涨理由，因为其前景不仅受到情绪的支持，还受到结构性需求和供应受限的支撑。</p>
</div><h2>Why aluminium stands out</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么铝脱颖而出</h2>
</div><p>Aluminium is another metal where Morgan Stanley sees a clearer bullish case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铝是摩根士丹利看到更清晰看涨理由的另一种金属。</p>
</div><p>The bank’s constructive view rests largely on supply-side constraints and the high energy intensity of production, which limits how quickly output can respond to demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该行的积极观点主要基于供应方面的限制和生产的高能耗，这限制了产出对需求的快速响应。</p>
</div><p>London Metal Exchange aluminium prices have remained supported in recent months, with analysts pointing to tight supply conditions even as broader macro uncertainty persists.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦金属交易所的铝价在最近几个月保持支撑，分析师指出，即使在更广泛的宏观不确定性持续的情况下，供应条件仍然紧张。</p>
</div><p>China’s capacity controls and the pressure of elevated power costs on smelters are central to that story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国的产能控制和高电力成本对冶炼厂的压力是这一故事的核心。</p>
</div><p>Production disruptions in some regions and the difficulty of restarting idled capacity have reinforced the supply tightness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>某些地区的生产中断以及重新启动闲置产能的困难加剧了供应紧张。</p>
</div><p>Because aluminium production is closely tied to electricity availability and pricing, supply responses tend to be gradual rather than immediate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于铝的生产与电力的可用性和定价密切相关，供应响应往往是渐进的而非即时的。</p>
</div><p>As a result, prices may remain relatively resilient even if broader economic conditions soften.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，即使更广泛的经济条件放缓，价格仍可能保持相对韧性。</p>
</div><h2>Why Morgan Stanley is more balanced on copper</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么摩根士丹利对铜持更平衡的看法</h2>
</div><p>By contrast, Morgan Stanley takes a more balanced view on copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，摩根士丹利对铜持更为平衡的看法。</p>
</div><p>While the metal retains strong long-term support from electrification and energy transition trends, the bank sees a more mixed near-term backdrop shaped by demand uncertainty and evolving market dynamics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管该金属在电气化和能源转型趋势中仍保持强劲的长期支撑，但该行认为短期背景受到需求不确定性和市场动态变化的影响，表现更加复杂。</p>
</div><p>That makes copper different from the more clearly supply-constrained aluminium story or the structurally tight silver market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得铜与供应受限的铝故事或结构性紧张的白银市场有所不同。</p>
</div><p>It remains a strategic metal with long-term appeal, but near-term price direction may be less straightforward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铜仍然是一种具有长期吸引力的战略金属，但短期价格方向可能不那么明确。</p>
</div><p>The broader takeaway is that investors can no longer treat the metals complex as moving for the same reasons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更广泛的结论是，投资者不再能将金属市场视为因相同原因而波动。</p>
</div><p>Gold’s short-term behaviour is becoming more macro-driven, silver is supported by tighter fundamentals, aluminium is benefiting from supply and power constraints, and copper sits between strong long-term demand and a more uncertain near-term outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金的短期表现越来越受到宏观因素驱动，白银受到更紧张的基本面支撑，铝受益于供应和电力限制，而铜则处于强劲的长期需求与更不确定的短期前景之间。</p>
</div><p>For portfolio managers, that means the next phase of metals investing may be less about owning a generic hedge and more about identifying where the real structural pressure points lie.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于投资组合经理而言，这意味着金属投资的下一个阶段可能不再是拥有一个通用的对冲工具，而是识别真正的结构性压力点所在。</p>
</div><p>The post Morgan Stanley questions gold’s safe-haven role, backs another metal appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利质疑黄金的避险角色，支持另一种金属的文章首发于 Invezz。</p>
</div>

摩根士丹利质疑黄金的避险作用，转而支持另一种金属