<p>拉丁美洲资产已成为新兴市场投资者在日益动荡的全球背景下寻求避风港的选择，得益于一系列石油出口国以及对中东紧张局势的更大隔离。</p>
<p>该地区的货币，从巴西的雷亚尔到阿根廷的比索，是自伊朗战争开始以来在新兴市场中对美元升值的少数货币之一。来自石油丰富的厄瓜多尔和哥伦比亚的美元债券在此期间表现优异，哥伦比亚的本币债务也表现良好。</p>
<p>美国和伊朗在周末未能达成和平协议，这影响了市场情绪，并在周一提升了对避险资产的需求。由于对上周达成的停火协议能否维持缺乏明确的预期，交易员们预计拉丁美洲的投资在多种情境下将保持稳定。</p>
<p>“我们最有信心的交易集中在拉丁美洲，” RBC Bluebay 的高级新兴市场投资组合经理在伦敦表示，举例提到阿根廷、巴西和哥伦比亚。“针对那些受益于或至少对高能源价格更具韧性的主权和企业债务仍然是我们偏好的主题之一。”</p>
<p>这一观点也得到了 Brandywine Global Investment Management 的支持，该公司管理着 440 亿美元的全球固定收益资产。他一直在新兴市场资产中持有超配头寸，主要集中在拉丁美洲。</p>
<p>“该地区将受益于亚洲经济体能源来源的多样化，以及美国的重新关注，” McIntyre 表示，他一直偏好本币债券。</p>
<p>一些领导人与特朗普政府的政治对齐影响了新兴市场投资组合经理的决策，预计更为积极的美国立场——对委内瑞拉的尼古拉斯·马杜罗的捕获、对古巴的施压——将对信用市场产生影响。</p>
<p>此外，拉丁美洲拥有世界上最高的实际利率，使其成为一个吸引人的目的地，投资者可以以低利率借入一种货币，并以较高利率投资另一种货币。</p>
<p>贝莱德投资研究所对硬货币新兴市场债券持乐观态度，指出一个关键指数 “偏向拉丁美洲的商品和能源出口国。” 该公司还看好与人工智能驱动的关键矿物需求上升相关的拉丁美洲股票，策略师们在一份报告中写道。</p>
<p>股票的表现也优于新兴市场同行。自战争开始以来，拉丁美洲股票的 MSCI 指数上涨了约 3%，而广泛的开发中国家股票指数则下跌了约 4%。</p>
<p>“债务流动转为负值，达到-22 亿美元，但股票仍吸引了 14 亿美元，表明商品支持和相对收益吸引力继续为该地区提供缓冲，” 国际金融协会的高级经济学家表示。</p>
<p>根据该组织的数据，拉丁美洲的资金外流在 3 月份占新兴市场资产总共 700 亿美元撤资中的不到 10 亿美元。</p>
<p>尽管如此，脆弱性依然存在。巴西的高利率继续影响企业的资产负债表，导致越来越多的公司陷入困境。投资者面临着几国二元结果的总统选举。哥伦比亚最近因财政问题被下调信用评级，而智利——一个能源进口国——的货币和债券表现滞后。</p>
<p>“该地区有赢家也有输家，” AllianceBernstein 的新兴市场债务投资组合经理表示。“即使停火协议维持，油价也可能保持高位，因此石油出口国是更大的赢家，” 他表示，偏好来自哥伦比亚、阿根廷和巴拿马等地的主权债务。</p>
<p>本月早些时候，国际货币基金组织表示，由于新兴市场对来自非银行机构（如养老基金和对冲基金）的资金依赖增加，已变得更加脆弱于全球风险情绪的变化。</p>
<p>短期内，对冲的解除引发了该资产类别的剧烈反弹，但 RBC BlueBay 的 Kettle 对在停火能否维持并导致更广泛的降级之前采取长期头寸保持谨慎。</p>
<p>“过去几周表现的一个关键启示是，地缘政治冲击在新兴市场中造成了真正的分化，” Kettle 表示。</p>

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<p>拉丁美洲资产在全球波动中吸引了新兴市场投资者，特别是由于石油出口和中东紧张局势带来的相对稳定。自伊朗战争开始以来，巴西雷亚尔和阿根廷比索等货币对美元有所升值。厄瓜多尔和哥伦比亚的美元债券表现良好，哥伦比亚的本币债务也有所上涨。尽管存在一些脆弱性，如巴西的高利率和政治不确定性，但该地区因其高实际利率和能源价格韧性可能带来的潜在收益而受到青睐</p>

<p>Latin American assets have emerged as a haven for emerging-market investors trying to navigate an increasingly volatile global backdrop, buoyed by a roster of oil exporters and greater insulation from tensions in the Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>拉丁美洲资产已成为新兴市场投资者在日益动荡的全球背景下寻求避风港的选择，得益于一系列石油出口国以及对中东紧张局势的更大隔离。</p>
</div><p>Currencies across the region, from Brazil’s real to Argentina’s , are among the few in emerging markets that have strengthened against the dollar since the start of the war in Iran. Dollar bonds from oil-rich Ecuador and Colombia have ranked among the top performers in the span, as has Colombia’s local-currency debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该地区的货币，从巴西的雷亚尔到阿根廷的比索，是自伊朗战争开始以来在新兴市场中对美元升值的少数货币之一。来自石油丰富的厄瓜多尔和哥伦比亚的美元债券在此期间表现优异，哥伦比亚的本币债务也表现良好。</p>
</div><p>The US and Iran’s failure to strike a peace deal over the weekend is on market sentiment and lift demand for safe haven assets on Monday. With limited visibility on whether a ceasefire agreement reached last week will hold, traders have been expecting Latin American bets holding up under multiple scenarios.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国和伊朗在周末未能达成和平协议，这影响了市场情绪，并在周一提升了对避险资产的需求。由于对上周达成的停火协议能否维持缺乏明确的预期，交易员们预计拉丁美洲的投资在多种情境下将保持稳定。</p>
</div><p>“Our highest conviction trades have been centered around Latin America,” said , a senior emerging markets portfolio manager at RBC Bluebay in London, citing Argentina, Brazil and Colombia as examples. “Targeting sovereigns and corporates that either benefit from, or at least are more resilient to, higher energy prices remains one of our preferred themes.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们最有信心的交易集中在拉丁美洲，” RBC Bluebay 的高级新兴市场投资组合经理在伦敦表示，举例提到阿根廷、巴西和哥伦比亚。“针对那些受益于或至少对高能源价格更具韧性的主权和企业债务仍然是我们偏好的主题之一。”</p>
</div><p>The view is shared by , who helps oversee $44 billion in global fixed-income assets at Brandywine Global Investment Management. He has been holding an overweight position in emerging-market assets, primarily through Latin America.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一观点也得到了 Brandywine Global Investment Management 的支持，该公司管理着 440 亿美元的全球固定收益资产。他一直在新兴市场资产中持有超配头寸，主要集中在拉丁美洲。</p>
</div><p>“That region will benefit from the diversification of energy sources by Asian economies, as well as renewed interest from the US,” said McIntyre, who has been favoring local-currency bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“该地区将受益于亚洲经济体能源来源的多样化，以及美国的重新关注，” McIntyre 表示，他一直偏好本币债券。</p>
</div><p>The political alignment of some leaders with the Donald Trump administration has shaped how EM portfolio managers , with a more hands-on US stance — the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, the pressure campaign on Cuba — expected to have implications for credit markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些领导人与特朗普政府的政治对齐影响了新兴市场投资组合经理的决策，预计更为积极的美国立场——对委内瑞拉的尼古拉斯·马杜罗的捕获、对古巴的施压——将对信用市场产生影响。</p>
</div><p>On top of that, Latin America boasts some of the world’s highest real interest rates, making it an attractive destination for , who borrow in one currency with low rates and invest in another with higher ones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，拉丁美洲拥有世界上最高的实际利率，使其成为一个吸引人的目的地，投资者可以以低利率借入一种货币，并以较高利率投资另一种货币。</p>
</div><p>BlackRock Investment Institute is positive on hard-currency emerging-market bonds, noting a key index “skews toward Latin American commodity and energy exporters.” The firm also likes Latin America stocks tied to themes such as rising demand for critical minerals driven by artificial intelligence, strategists including wrote in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贝莱德投资研究所对硬货币新兴市场债券持乐观态度，指出一个关键指数 “偏向拉丁美洲的商品和能源出口国。” 该公司还看好与人工智能驱动的关键矿物需求上升相关的拉丁美洲股票，策略师们在一份报告中写道。</p>
</div><p>Equities too are outperforming EM peers. An MSCI gauge of Latin American stocks is up about 3% since the war began, bucking losses of about 4% in the broad gauge for developing-world shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票的表现也优于新兴市场同行。自战争开始以来，拉丁美洲股票的 MSCI 指数上涨了约 3%，而广泛的开发中国家股票指数则下跌了约 4%。</p>
</div><p>“Debt flows turned negative at -$2.2 billion, but equities still attracted $1.4 billion, suggesting that commodity support and relative carry appeal continued to cushion the region,” according to , senior economist at the Institute of International Finance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“债务流动转为负值，达到-22 亿美元，但股票仍吸引了 14 亿美元，表明商品支持和相对收益吸引力继续为该地区提供缓冲，” 国际金融协会的高级经济学家表示。</p>
</div><p>Outflows from Latin America made up less than $1 billion of a total of $70 billion withdrawals from emerging-market assets in March, according to data by the organization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据该组织的数据，拉丁美洲的资金外流在 3 月份占新兴市场资产总共 700 亿美元撤资中的不到 10 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Still, vulnerabilities remain. Brazil’s high interest rates continue to corporate balance sheets, pushing more and more companies into distress. Investors face coin-flip presidential elections with binary outcomes in several countries. Colombia recently had its credit score on fiscal concerns, while Chile — an energy importer — saw its currency and bonds lag.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，脆弱性依然存在。巴西的高利率继续影响企业的资产负债表，导致越来越多的公司陷入困境。投资者面临着几国二元结果的总统选举。哥伦比亚最近因财政问题被下调信用评级，而智利——一个能源进口国——的货币和债券表现滞后。</p>
</div><p>“There are winners and losers in the region,” said , an emerging markets debt portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein. “Oil prices are likely to stay high even with the ceasefire holding, so the oil exporters are the bigger winners,” said Butt, who favors sovereign debt from places including Colombia, Argentina and Panama.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“该地区有赢家也有输家，” AllianceBernstein 的新兴市场债务投资组合经理表示。“即使停火协议维持，油价也可能保持高位，因此石油出口国是更大的赢家，” 他表示，偏好来自哥伦比亚、阿根廷和巴拿马等地的主权债务。</p>
</div><p>Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund emerging markets have become more vulnerable to shifts in global risk sentiment due to its increased exposure to funding from non-bank institutions such as pension funds and hedge funds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月早些时候，国际货币基金组织表示，由于新兴市场对来自非银行机构（如养老基金和对冲基金）的资金依赖增加，已变得更加脆弱于全球风险情绪的变化。</p>
</div><p>In the short term, the unwinding of hedges has sparked sharp rallies across the asset class, but RBC BlueBay’s Kettle remains cautious about taking longer-term positions until there is clearer evidence the ceasefire will hold and lead to broader de-escalation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期内，对冲的解除引发了该资产类别的剧烈反弹，但 RBC BlueBay 的 Kettle 对在停火能否维持并导致更广泛的降级之前采取长期头寸保持谨慎。</p>
</div><p>“One key takeaway from the last few weeks of performance is that geopolitical shocks create real dispersion within EM,” Kettle said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“过去几周表现的一个关键启示是，地缘政治冲击在新兴市场中造成了真正的分化，” Kettle 表示。</p>
</div>

Oil-Rich Latin America Lures Traders Navigating War Jitters

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石油资源丰富的拉丁美洲吸引了在战争紧张局势中寻找机会的交易员