<p>TradingKey - 币安宣布推出预测市场；BNB 价格表现平平，短期内不太可能产生显著结果。</p>
<p>4 月 12 日，美国与伊朗谈判缺乏显著进展引发了加密货币的广泛抛售，币安币（BNB）也受到拖累。目前，BNB 的价格已跌破 600 美元，交易价格约为 593 美元，比历史最高点下跌约 56%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260412/Binance-bnb-price-6da82040980046d6b83b9235f73f768f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260412/Binance-bnb-price-6da82040980046d6b83b9235f73f768f.png"/></p>
<p>BNB 价格走势图，来源：TradingView</p>
<p>在过去一周，BNB 的价格表现显著落后于比特币，令社区失望，尤其是最近推出的预测市场未能达到预期。在过去 7 天中，比特币上涨后回落，但仍保持近 8% 的涨幅；而 BNB 的趋势与 BTC 大致一致，但涨幅为 0%，这与交易所合规团队的大规模辞职后市场的担忧密不可分。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260412/btc-eth-xrp-bnb-sol-152e783d96de427a810d3b5a20f3088a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260412/btc-eth-xrp-bnb-sol-152e783d96de427a810d3b5a20f3088a.png"/></p>
<p>过去 7 天 BNB 和 BTC 的价格表现，来源：CoinMarketCap</p>
<p>上周四（4 月 9 日），币安宣布推出其预测市场。当天价格短暂突破 600 美元后迅速回落，表明短期内对 BNB 的重大影响不太可能。然而，预测市场的潜在长期影响不容忽视，因为它在三个主要方面为 BNB 提供了实质性的生态赋能：</p>
<p>1. 加速 BNB 销毁：预测市场建立在 BNB 智能链（BSC）上。高频投机将产生大量的燃气消耗。在 2026 机制下，这将直接加速 BNB 的季度销毁率，从供应端提高价格底线。</p>
<p>2. 用户留存与对冲：在熊市中，当币价缺乏波动时，现实世界（政治、体育、AI 事件）仍然活跃。预测市场允许用户在 “市场没有利润” 的情况下，依然留在币安生态系统内进行观点交易。</p>
<p>3. AI 代理的涌入：到 2026 年，预测市场的主要力量将不再仅限于人类，还将包括 Grok 或 Claude Mythos 级别的 AI 代理。为了捕捉套利机会，这些 AI 将进行 24/7 的持续链上交易，为 BNB 创造新的刚性流动性需求。</p>
<p>显然，“预测市场” 是 BNB 从 “代币” 转型为 “全功能平台” 的关键拼图，但它更像是 “长期战略资产”，而非 “即时解决方案”。要使 BNB 实现短期复苏，关键在于下一轮的美伊谈判以及确保交易所的合规问题得到妥善解决；否则，BNB 价格的任何反弹都将保持疲软。</p>
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<p>币安推出了一个预测市场，但 BNB 的价格依然疲软，目前交易价格约为 593 美元，比历史最高点下跌了 56%。该预测市场预计将带来长期利益，例如加速 BNB 的销毁和在市场下行期间留住用户。然而，BNB 的短期复苏取决于合规问题的解决以及美伊谈判的结果。该市场对 BNB 的初始影响微乎其微，近期没有观察到显著的价格上涨</p>

<p>TradingKey - Binance announces launch of prediction market; BNB price performance lackluster, unlikely to yield significant short-term results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 币安宣布推出预测市场；BNB 价格表现平平，短期内不太可能产生显著结果。</p>
</div><p>On April 12, the lack of significant progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations triggered a broad sell-off in cryptocurrencies, and Binance Coin ( BNB) was also dragged down. Currently, the price of BNB has fallen below $600 and is trading at approximately $593, down about 56% from its all-time high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4 月 12 日，美国与伊朗谈判缺乏显著进展引发了加密货币的广泛抛售，币安币（BNB）也受到拖累。目前，BNB 的价格已跌破 600 美元，交易价格约为 593 美元，比历史最高点下跌约 56%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260412/Binance-bnb-price-6da82040980046d6b83b9235f73f768f.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260412/Binance-bnb-price-6da82040980046d6b83b9235f73f768f.png"/></p>
<p>BNB price chart, Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BNB 价格走势图，来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Over the past week, BNB's price performance has significantly lagged behind Bitcoin, disappointing the community, especially as the recently launched prediction market failed to meet expectations. In the last 7 days, Bitcoin surged and then retraced but maintained a nearly 8% gain; while BNB's trend was largely consistent with BTC, its gain was 0%, which is inseparable from market concerns following the mass resignation of the exchange's compliance team.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一周，BNB 的价格表现显著落后于比特币，令社区失望，尤其是最近推出的预测市场未能达到预期。在过去 7 天中，比特币上涨后回落，但仍保持近 8% 的涨幅；而 BNB 的趋势与 BTC 大致一致，但涨幅为 0%，这与交易所合规团队的大规模辞职后市场的担忧密不可分。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260412/btc-eth-xrp-bnb-sol-152e783d96de427a810d3b5a20f3088a.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260412/btc-eth-xrp-bnb-sol-152e783d96de427a810d3b5a20f3088a.png"/></p>
<p>BNB and BTC price performance over the last 7 days, Source: CoinMarketCap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去 7 天 BNB 和 BTC 的价格表现，来源：CoinMarketCap</p>
</div><p>Last Thursday (April 9), Binance announced the launch of its prediction market. The price briefly broke through $600 that day before quickly retreating, suggesting it is unlikely to have a major short-term impact on BNB. However, the potential long-term influence of the prediction market should not be overlooked, as it provides substantive ecological empowerment for BNB in three main aspects:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周四（4 月 9 日），币安宣布推出其预测市场。当天价格短暂突破 600 美元后迅速回落，表明短期内对 BNB 的重大影响不太可能。然而，预测市场的潜在长期影响不容忽视，因为它在三个主要方面为 BNB 提供了实质性的生态赋能：</p>
</div><p>1. Accelerating BNB Burns: The prediction market is built on the BNB Smart Chain (BSC). High-frequency speculation will generate massive gas consumption. Under the 2026 mechanism, this will directly accelerate the quarterly burn rate of BNB, raising the price floor from the supply side.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1. 加速 BNB 销毁：预测市场建立在 BNB 智能链（BSC）上。高频投机将产生大量的燃气消耗。在 2026 机制下，这将直接加速 BNB 的季度销毁率，从供应端提高价格底线。</p>
</div><p>2. User Retention and Hedging: During bear markets, when coin prices lack volatility, the real world (politics, sports, AI events) remains active. Prediction markets allow users to stay within the Binance ecosystem to trade opinions even when the 'market offers no profit.'</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2. 用户留存与对冲：在熊市中，当币价缺乏波动时，现实世界（政治、体育、AI 事件）仍然活跃。预测市场允许用户在 “市场没有利润” 的情况下，依然留在币安生态系统内进行观点交易。</p>
</div><p>3. Influx of AI Agents: By 2026, the primary force in prediction markets will no longer be limited to humans, but will include AI agents on the level of Grok or Claude Mythos. To capture arbitrage opportunities, these AIs will engage in 24/7 continuous on-chain trading, creating new and rigid liquidity demand for BNB.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3. AI 代理的涌入：到 2026 年，预测市场的主要力量将不再仅限于人类，还将包括 Grok 或 Claude Mythos 级别的 AI 代理。为了捕捉套利机会，这些 AI 将进行 24/7 的持续链上交易，为 BNB 创造新的刚性流动性需求。</p>
</div><p>It is evident that the 'prediction market' is a crucial piece of the puzzle for BNB's transition from a 'token' to a 'full-featured platform,' but it acts more like a 'long-term strategic asset' than an 'immediate fix.' For BNB to stage a short-term recovery, the key lies in the next round of U.S.-Iran negotiations and ensuring that the exchange's compliance issues are properly resolved; otherwise, any rebound in the BNB price will remain weak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>显然，“预测市场” 是 BNB 从 “代币” 转型为 “全功能平台” 的关键拼图，但它更像是 “长期战略资产”，而非 “即时解决方案”。要使 BNB 实现短期复苏，关键在于下一轮的美伊谈判以及确保交易所的合规问题得到妥善解决；否则，BNB 价格的任何反弹都将保持疲软。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
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Binance Launches Prediction Market Killer Move, Can BNB Bulls Mount a Comeback?

- Binance 推出预测市场但 BNB 价格疲软，当前约 593 美元，较历史高点下跌 56%。  
- 过去一周，BNB 表现不及比特币，受市场对合规团队辞职的担忧影响。  
- 预测市场将长期支持 BNB 生态，但短期改善需关注美伊谈判进展。

币安推出预测市场的杀手锏，BNB 多头能否卷土重来？