<p>作者：诺拉·雷德蒙德</p>
<p>&#34;对我们来说，驱动全球盈利前景的因素比地缘政治更为重要&#34;</p>
<p>汇丰的定位框架达到了自唐纳德·特朗普&#34;解放日&#34;推出全球关税以来，对风险资产最乐观的水平。</p>
<p>对汇丰而言，伊朗战争对股票的影响并不像你想象的那么重要。</p>
<p>&#34;我们不需要完全恢复正常才能消退过去六周的市场波动，&#34;首席多资产策略师马克斯·凯特纳领导的分析师在周一的一份报告中写道。</p>
<p>自六周前美国和以色列对伊朗发起冲突以来，投资者一直密切关注降级信号。由于华盛顿和德黑兰在周末 21 小时的讨论中未能达成协议，美国股票目前预计将下跌。</p>
<p>MarketWatch 直播：道琼斯、标准普尔 500 和纳斯达克将在特朗普下令自己实施波斯湾封锁后回落，油价突破 100 美元。</p>
<p>但总部位于伦敦的银行分析师认为，过于关注地缘政治。</p>
<p>&#34;随着信用利差和股票迅速接近升级前的水平，我们怀疑未来几周对投资者自满的呼声将会很多，&#34;他们表示。&#34;但我们自三月中旬以来一直在争论，从市场的角度来看，真正重要的是变化的速度，而不是水平。&#34;</p>
<p>汇丰的定位框架已上升至自美国总统唐纳德·特朗普推出&#34;互惠&#34;关税的&#34;解放日&#34;以来，对风险资产最乐观的水平，该报告指出，仅仅是较少的负面消息就足以支持反弹。</p>
<p>凯特纳指出，强劲的数据点，如信用卡支出增加和同店零售销售回升，以及税收退款比去年大 25%，即使在战争期间也是第二季度盈利季节的安慰来源。</p>
<p>&#34;对我们来说，驱动全球盈利前景的因素比地缘政治更为重要，&#34;他说。凯特纳表示，过去两个季度对人工智能的担忧已消除了科技行业的估值溢价，创造了买入机会。</p>
<p>不要错过：摩根士丹利的迈克·威尔逊表示，能源价格可能已经见顶。这对股票意味着什么。</p>
<p>分析师写道，重要的问题是，美国的例外主义是否会在接下来的几个月中恢复。他们表示，他们看到一种情景，可能在第二季度末或夏季，如果失业率下降，国债收益率可能会超过 4.3%——这将对几乎所有资产类别产生连锁反应。</p>
<p>-诺拉·雷德蒙德</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>04-13-26 0852ET</p>

汇丰控股有限公司

汇丰

汇丰控股

金融业 ETF - Vanguard

金融指数 MSCI ETF - Fidelity

金融业 ETF - SPDR

HSBH

<p>汇丰分析师认为，股票可以在没有完全恢复正常的情况下反弹，强调全球盈利前景的重要性超过地缘政治担忧。他们的仓位框架达到了自特朗普实施关税以来最乐观的水平。他们认为，即使是较少的负面消息也可能支持市场反弹，引用强劲的消费者支出和零售销售作为积极指标。分析师对美国的特殊性可能重现持乐观态度，预计失业率下降和国债收益率上升将影响各种资产类别</p>

<p>By Nora Redmond</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：诺拉·雷德蒙德</p>
</div><p>'To us, what matters more than geopolitics is what's driving the global earnings outlook'</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;对我们来说，驱动全球盈利前景的因素比地缘政治更为重要&#34;</p>
</div><p>HSBC's positioning framework has reached its most bullish level for risk assets since Donald Trump's &#34;liberation day&#34; rollout of global tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汇丰的定位框架达到了自唐纳德·特朗普&#34;解放日&#34;推出全球关税以来，对风险资产最乐观的水平。</p>
</div><p>For HSBC the war in Iran isn't as important to stocks as you might think.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对汇丰而言，伊朗战争对股票的影响并不像你想象的那么重要。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We don't need a full return to normality in order to fade the moves of the last six weeks,&#34; analysts led by Max Kettner, chief multiasset strategist, wrote in a note on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我们不需要完全恢复正常才能消退过去六周的市场波动，&#34;首席多资产策略师马克斯·凯特纳领导的分析师在周一的一份报告中写道。</p>
</div><p>Since this conflict was launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran six weeks ago, investors have keenly been keeping an eye out for signals of de-escalation. U.S. stocks are currently set to dip after Washington and Tehran were unable to reach an agreement during 21 hours of discussions over the weekend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自六周前美国和以色列对伊朗发起冲突以来，投资者一直密切关注降级信号。由于华盛顿和德黑兰在周末 21 小时的讨论中未能达成协议，美国股票目前预计将下跌。</p>
</div><p>MarketWatch Live: Dow, S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq to retreat as oil tops $100 after Trump orders his own Persian Gulf blockade</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketWatch 直播：道琼斯、标准普尔 500 和纳斯达克将在特朗普下令自己实施波斯湾封锁后回落，油价突破 100 美元。</p>
</div><p>But analysts at the London-headquartered bank argue that there's too much focus on geopolitics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但总部位于伦敦的银行分析师认为，过于关注地缘政治。</p>
</div><p>&#34;As credit spreads and equities quickly approach pre-escalation levels, we suspect calls for investor complacency will be abundant in the coming weeks,&#34; they said. &#34;But we've been arguing since mid-March that what's really important from a market perspective is the rate of change, not the level.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;随着信用利差和股票迅速接近升级前的水平，我们怀疑未来几周对投资者自满的呼声将会很多，&#34;他们表示。&#34;但我们自三月中旬以来一直在争论，从市场的角度来看，真正重要的是变化的速度，而不是水平。&#34;</p>
</div><p>HSBC's positioning framework has risen to its most bullish level for risk assets since U.S. President Donald Trump's rollout of &#34;reciprocal&#34; tariffs on &#34;liberation day,&#34; the note said, adding that even just less negative news would be enough to support the rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汇丰的定位框架已上升至自美国总统唐纳德·特朗普推出&#34;互惠&#34;关税的&#34;解放日&#34;以来，对风险资产最乐观的水平，该报告指出，仅仅是较少的负面消息就足以支持反弹。</p>
</div><p>Kettner noted that strong data points, like higher credit-card spending and same-store retail sales picking up, and tax refunds that are 25% larger last year's, as sources of comfort for the second quarter's earnings season even amid war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>凯特纳指出，强劲的数据点，如信用卡支出增加和同店零售销售回升，以及税收退款比去年大 25%，即使在战争期间也是第二季度盈利季节的安慰来源。</p>
</div><p>&#34;To us, what matters more than geopolitics is what's driving the global earnings outlook,&#34; he said. Concerns about artificial intelligence over the past two quarters have removed the tech sector's valuation premium, creating opportunities to buy, Kettner said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;对我们来说，驱动全球盈利前景的因素比地缘政治更为重要，&#34;他说。凯特纳表示，过去两个季度对人工智能的担忧已消除了科技行业的估值溢价，创造了买入机会。</p>
</div><p>Don't miss: Energy prices have probably peaked, according to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. What that means for stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要错过：摩根士丹利的迈克·威尔逊表示，能源价格可能已经见顶。这对股票意味着什么。</p>
</div><p>The important question, the analysts wrote, is whether U.S. exceptionalism is going to return in the next few months. They said they see a scenario where, possibly by the end of the second quarter or by summertime, if the unemployment rate falls, Treasury yields could pass 4.3% - which would have a knock-on effect for virtually all asset classes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师写道，重要的问题是，美国的例外主义是否会在接下来的几个月中恢复。他们表示，他们看到一种情景，可能在第二季度末或夏季，如果失业率下降，国债收益率可能会超过 4.3%——这将对几乎所有资产类别产生连锁反应。</p>
</div><p>-Nora Redmond</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-诺拉·雷德蒙德</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>04-13-26 0852ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>04-13-26 0852ET</p>
</div>

Stocks can rally even without a 'full return to normality,' says HSBC

- 汇丰银行认为，全球盈利展望比地缘政治更为重要。  
- 该行分析师指出，目前市场关注点过于集中在地缘政治冲突上。  
- 强劲的经济数据为第二季度盈利季提供了信心。

汇丰表示，即使没有 ‘完全恢复正常’，股票也能上涨