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<p>在周一，美国美元上涨，此前华盛顿与德黑兰之间的周末谈判未能达成结束持续冲突的协议。</p>
<p>根据 CNBC 的报道，美元对欧元上涨了 0.3%，交易价格为 1.169 美元，对英镑上涨了 0.25%，交易价格为 1.342 美元。</p>
<p>货币的上涨是在和平谈判破裂后出现的，随后唐纳德·特朗普发表声明，表示美国将对所有进出伊朗港口的海上交通实施封锁。</p>
<p>这一公告增加了地缘政治的不确定性，并对美元提供了适度支持。</p>
<p>尽管局势升级，自伊朗冲突开始以来，投资者对美元的需求仍然保持适度。</p>
<p>然而，该货币在三月份仍对一篮子主要货币上涨了约 2%。</p>
<h2>油价和金融状况塑造市场动态</h2>
<p>全球市场的最新发展给其他货币带来了压力。</p>
<p>较高的油价、坚挺的美元和紧缩的美国金融条件共同对外汇市场施加了压力。</p>
<p>在冲突期间，美元的相对强势主要归因于美国在能源生产上的自给自足。</p>
<p>相比之下，英国和欧元区等经济体由于对进口的高度依赖，仍然更容易受到油气价格上涨的影响。</p>
<p>这种差异加大了美元的吸引力，特别是在地缘政治风险加剧的时期。</p>
<h2>汇丰分析师对美元前景保持谨慎</h2>
<p>汇丰的分析师在周五发布的一份报告中强调了当前环境的复杂性。</p>
<p>虽然承认调整预测以支持更强美元的诱惑，但他们表示犹豫。</p>
<p>根据 CNBC 的报道，他写道：&#34;将更强的美元纳入我们的预测是诱人的。&#34;</p>
<p>他还补充说，他们&#34;不愿意&#34;做出这样的转变，而是预计美元会随着时间的推移而走弱。</p>
<p>分析师指出了支撑他们前景的两个主要原因。</p>
<p>首先，引用美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近的言论，他们表示：&#34;当缺乏可见性时，谨慎地放慢速度而不是完全改变方向是明智的。&#34;</p>
<p>&#34;其次，由于美联储并未处于加息周期，也没有转向明显的鹰派立场，因此有一些潜在的制约因素在对美元产生广泛影响，&#34;他们补充道。</p>
<h2>黄金在避险需求变化中承压</h2>
<p>尽管美元有所上涨，但其他传统避险资产的表现并不强劲。</p>
<p>自美国和以色列于 2 月 28 日开始对伊朗进行打击以来，黄金价格已下跌约 10%。</p>
<p>汇丰分析师表示，贵金属的上涨轨迹可能会恢复，但仅在特定条件下。</p>
<p>他们指出，黄金价格的持续回升可能需要敌对行动的停止、霍尔木兹海峡的全面重新开放，以及油价在更稳定的水平上稳定。</p>
<p>在此之前，市场参与者预计将继续关注地缘政治的发展及其对货币和商品的广泛影响。</p>
<p>该文章的标题为《为什么汇丰预计美元会在上涨中走弱？》，首次发布在 Invezz 上。</p>

汇丰

汇丰控股有限公司

GOLD

<p>汇丰分析师预计尽管近期有所上涨，美元仍将走弱，原因在于地缘政治不确定性和市场缺乏可见性。在美国与伊朗的和平谈判失败后，美元对欧元和英镑上涨，但汇丰保持谨慎，指出美联储并未处于加息周期。他们强调，美元的强势部分源于美国的能源自给自足，而英国和欧元区则在油价上涨中显得脆弱。与此同时，黄金价格也因避险需求的变化而下跌</p>

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<p>The US dollar moved higher on Monday after weekend talks between Washington and Tehran failed to produce an agreement to end the ongoing conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周一，美国美元上涨，此前华盛顿与德黑兰之间的周末谈判未能达成结束持续冲突的协议。</p>
</div><p>According to CNBC, the greenback gained 0.3% against the euro, trading at $1.169, and rose 0.25% against the British pound to $1.342.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CNBC 的报道，美元对欧元上涨了 0.3%，交易价格为 1.169 美元，对英镑上涨了 0.25%，交易价格为 1.342 美元。</p>
</div><p>The uptick in the currency came after peace negotiations broke down, followed by a statement from Donald Trump indicating that the US would initiate a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>货币的上涨是在和平谈判破裂后出现的，随后唐纳德·特朗普发表声明，表示美国将对所有进出伊朗港口的海上交通实施封锁。</p>
</div><p>The announcement added to geopolitical uncertainty and provided modest support to the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一公告增加了地缘政治的不确定性，并对美元提供了适度支持。</p>
</div><p>Despite the escalation, investor demand for the dollar has remained measured since the beginning of the Iran conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管局势升级，自伊朗冲突开始以来，投资者对美元的需求仍然保持适度。</p>
</div><p>However, the currency has still posted gains of around 2% against a basket of major peers in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，该货币在三月份仍对一篮子主要货币上涨了约 2%。</p>
</div><h2>Market dynamics shaped by oil and financial conditions</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>油价和金融状况塑造市场动态</h2>
</div><p>Recent developments in global markets have created headwinds for other currencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球市场的最新发展给其他货币带来了压力。</p>
</div><p>Higher oil prices, a firmer US dollar, and tighter US financial conditions have collectively pressured foreign exchange markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>较高的油价、坚挺的美元和紧缩的美国金融条件共同对外汇市场施加了压力。</p>
</div><p>The US dollar’s relative strength during the conflict has been largely attributed to the country’s self-sufficiency in energy production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在冲突期间，美元的相对强势主要归因于美国在能源生产上的自给自足。</p>
</div><p>In contrast, economies such as the United Kingdom and the Eurozone remain more vulnerable to rising oil and gas prices due to their heavy reliance on imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，英国和欧元区等经济体由于对进口的高度依赖，仍然更容易受到油气价格上涨的影响。</p>
</div><p>This divergence has amplified the dollar’s appeal, particularly during periods of heightened geopolitical risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种差异加大了美元的吸引力，特别是在地缘政治风险加剧的时期。</p>
</div><h2>HSBC analysts remain cautious on the USD outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>汇丰分析师对美元前景保持谨慎</h2>
</div><p>Analysts at HSBC highlighted the complexity of the current environment in a note issued on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汇丰的分析师在周五发布的一份报告中强调了当前环境的复杂性。</p>
</div><p>While acknowledging the temptation to adjust forecasts in favour of a stronger dollar, they expressed hesitation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然承认调整预测以支持更强美元的诱惑，但他们表示犹豫。</p>
</div><p>According to CNBC, he wrote, &#34;Embracing a stronger USD into our forecasts is tempting.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CNBC 的报道，他写道：&#34;将更强的美元纳入我们的预测是诱人的。&#34;</p>
</div><p>He also added that they were &#34;reluctant&#34; to make such a shift and instead expect the greenback to weaken over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他还补充说，他们&#34;不愿意&#34;做出这样的转变，而是预计美元会随着时间的推移而走弱。</p>
</div><p>The analysts pointed to two primary reasons underpinning their outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师指出了支撑他们前景的两个主要原因。</p>
</div><p>First, referencing recent remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, they stated, &#34;When there is a lack of visibility, it is prudent to slow down rather than fully change direction.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，引用美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近的言论，他们表示：&#34;当缺乏可见性时，谨慎地放慢速度而不是完全改变方向是明智的。&#34;</p>
</div><p>&#34;Second, since the Fed is not in a hiking cycle nor has turned outright hawkish, there are underlying constraints working against the broad USD,&#34; they added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;其次，由于美联储并未处于加息周期，也没有转向明显的鹰派立场，因此有一些潜在的制约因素在对美元产生广泛影响，&#34;他们补充道。</p>
</div><h2>Gold under pressure amid shifting safe-haven demand</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黄金在避险需求变化中承压</h2>
</div><p>While the dollar has seen modest gains, other traditional safe-haven assets have not performed as strongly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美元有所上涨，但其他传统避险资产的表现并不强劲。</p>
</div><p>Gold has declined by around 10% from its all-time high since the United States and Israel began strikes on Iran on February 28.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自美国和以色列于 2 月 28 日开始对伊朗进行打击以来，黄金价格已下跌约 10%。</p>
</div><p>HSBC analysts suggested that the precious metal’s upward trajectory could resume, but only under specific conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汇丰分析师表示，贵金属的上涨轨迹可能会恢复，但仅在特定条件下。</p>
</div><p>They indicated that a sustained recovery in gold prices would likely require a cessation of hostilities, the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a stabilisation in oil prices at more consistent levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们指出，黄金价格的持续回升可能需要敌对行动的停止、霍尔木兹海峡的全面重新开放，以及油价在更稳定的水平上稳定。</p>
</div><p>Until then, market participants are expected to remain focused on geopolitical developments and their broader impact on currencies and commodities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在此之前，市场参与者预计将继续关注地缘政治的发展及其对货币和商品的广泛影响。</p>
</div><p>The post Why does HSBC expect the dollar to weaken despite gains? appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该文章的标题为《为什么汇丰预计美元会在上涨中走弱？》，首次发布在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

Why does HSBC expect the dollar to weaken despite gains?

- 美元因伊朗与美国谈判失败上涨，兑欧元涨 0.3%。  
- 地缘政治不确定性推高美元，但投资者需求仍温和。  
- 汇丰分析师对美元前景持谨慎态度，预计未来可能走弱。

为什么汇丰预计美元会走弱，尽管美元有所上涨？