<h2>关键点</h2>
<ul>
<li>自 1945 年以来，恶性循环指数（VCI）在指示经济衰退方面的准确率达到了 100%，没有出现过虚假警报。</li>
<li>该指数目前发出警告，表明美国正处于经济衰退的早期阶段。</li>
<li>投资者的明智举措包括购买抗衰退股票和增加现金头寸。</li>
<li>这 10 只股票可能会造就下一波百万富翁 ›</li>
</ul>
<p>想象一下，如果投资者在政府正式宣布经济衰退之前就知道衰退即将来临，他们在管理投资组合时会更加有效。他们的长期利润几乎肯定会显著增加。</p>
<p>有了恶性循环指数（VCI），就不需要想象。<strong>穆迪分析</strong>（NYSE: MCO）首席经济学家马克·赞迪及其团队创建了这一指标。它在过去 80 年中准确预测了 100% 的美国经济衰退——没有一次虚假警报。</p>
<p><em><strong>人工智能会创造出世界上第一个万亿富翁吗？</strong> 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知的公司报告，该公司被称为 “不可或缺的垄断”，提供英伟达和英特尔都需要的关键技术。<strong>继续 »</strong></em></p>
<p>这个指标现在在说什么？投资者应该怎么做？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2NTMzOC9yZWNlc3Npb24tYWhlYWQtc2lnbi5qcGcWdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2NTMzOC9yZWNlc3Npb24tYWhlYWQtc2lnbi5qcGcWdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>为什么恶性循环指数如此准确</h2>
<p>在回答这些问题之前，了解 VCI 究竟是什么以及它为何如此准确是有帮助的。赞迪和他的同事们基于经济学家克劳迪娅·萨姆开发的萨姆规则建立了该指数。当三个月的平均失业率比 12 个月的最低点上升 0.5% 时，萨姆规则会发出经济处于衰退早期阶段的信号。</p>
<p>萨姆规则采用的方法非常准确。自 1950 年以来，它几乎正确识别了每一次经济衰退，仅有两次虚假警报。其中一次虚假警报发生在 1959 年。尽管当时萨姆规则发出信号时美国经济并未进入衰退，但六个月后却开始了衰退。</p>
<p>VCI 对萨姆规则进行了两项改进，使其更具威力。首先，该指数使用五年移动平均的劳动参与率来调整失业数据。这有助于捕捉那些放弃找工作并离开劳动力市场的工人。其次，当三个月的平均失业率比前 12 个月上升超过 1% 时，VCI 会指示经济处于衰退状态。</p>
<p>VCI 相比萨姆规则更高准确性的关键在于它考虑了失业率上升和劳动力参与率下降。这一变化有助于避免在劳动力市场看似健康但实际上正在恶化时出现的虚假警报。</p>
<h2>该指标目前对经济的看法</h2>
<p>VCI 现在反映了美国经济的什么情况？赞迪认为该指数表明我们已经处于衰退之中，尽管国家经济研究局（NBER）尚未正式确认。</p>
<p>萨姆规则并未指示衰退，部分原因是 3 月份新增的 178,000 个就业岗位似乎强劲。然而，穆迪分析的赞迪在 X（前身为 Twitter）上发布消息称，3 月份的就业增长还有更多背景。他表示，新增就业 “是在 2 月份大幅下降之后，严酷的冬季和凯撒医疗的劳工罢工对就业造成了沉重打击。” 赞迪认为，自 2025 年 4 月以来，美国实际上只增加了少量就业岗位——如果没有医疗行业的就业，净就业将会减少。</p>
<p>重要的是，2 月份的就业数据并未反映与伊朗战争相关的油价冲击。冲突正在推动通货膨胀上升。同时，劳动力参与率已降至 61.9%，这表明越来越多的美国人放弃了找工作。消费者信心在 4 月份也创下了历史新低。</p>
<p>穆迪分析已将美国经济在未来 12 个月内进入衰退的概率提高至 48.6%。这高于安永 - 帕森顿的 40% 和 <strong>高盛</strong>（NYSE: GS）的 30% 衰退概率。然而，这些机构并未使用 VCI。</p>
<h2>投资者应该怎么做？</h2>
<p>最重要的是，投资者不应惊慌。没有任何经济指标是万无一失的——即使是像 VCI 这样有完美记录的指标。然而，做好衰退的准备是个好主意。</p>
<p>一个明智的举措是购买抗衰退股票。三个在衰退期间表现良好的行业是消费品、医疗保健和公用事业。</p>
<p><strong>沃尔玛</strong>（NASDAQ: WMT）是抗衰退消费品股票的一个好例子。<strong>艾伯维</strong>（NYSE: ABBV）是一家主要制药公司，其业务不应受到衰退的显著影响。<strong>美国消费品水务</strong>（NYSE: AWR）是一家领先的电力公用事业公司，能够轻松应对经济衰退。这三只股票都是股息之王，属于至少连续 50 年增加股息的精英公司。</p>
<p>另一方面，投资者可能想要谨慎购买周期性股票，因为如果经济疲软，这些股票可能会大幅回调。小型股在衰退期间也往往更脆弱。</p>
<p>增加现金头寸也没有坏处。衰退通常会创造出有吸引力的购买机会，因此拥有一些现金以便投资可能会带来回报。</p>
<p>如果你忽视了 VCI 发出的警告信号而衰退真的来临怎么办？保持冷静。衰退通常不会持续太久。股票最终会恢复。专注于长期投资可能会帮助你赚到比恐慌性抛售更多的钱。</p>
<h2>现在投资$1,000 的地方</h2>
<p>当我们的分析师团队有股票推荐时，听取建议是值得的。毕竟，_Stock Advisor_的总平均回报率为 968%*——相比于标准普尔 500 的 191% 表现出色。</p>
<p>他们刚刚透露了他们认为目前投资者应该购买的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong>，<strong>加入_Stock Advisor_即可获取。</strong></p>
<p><strong>查看股票 »</strong></p>
<p><em>截至 2026 年 4 月 14 日的股票顾问回报。</em></p>
<p><em>Keith Speights 持有艾伯维的股份。Motley Fool 持有并推荐艾伯维、高盛集团、穆迪和沃尔玛的股份。Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
<p>本文所表达的观点和意见仅代表作者个人观点，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点。</p>

艾伯维

沃尔玛

<p>恶性循环指数（VCI）自 1945 年以来准确预测了美国的经济衰退，目前信号显示早期衰退。建议投资者考虑抗衰退股票并增加现金头寸。VCI 通过调整失业数据来改进 Sahm 规则，当失业率上升超过 1% 时指示衰退。穆迪分析公司将衰退的概率提高至 48.6%，高于其他预测。推荐的股票包括沃尔玛、艾伯维和美国消费品水务公司，这些公司在经济下行期间被认为具有韧性</p>

<h2>Key Points</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关键点</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>The Vicious Cycle Index (VCI) has been 100% accurate in indicating recessions since 1945 with no false alarms.</li>
<li>This index is currently flashing a warning that the U.S. is in the early stages of a recession.</li>
<li>Smart moves for investors include buying recession-resistant stocks and increasing their cash positions.</li>
<li>These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires ›</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>自 1945 年以来，恶性循环指数（VCI）在指示经济衰退方面的准确率达到了 100%，没有出现过虚假警报。</li>
<li>该指数目前发出警告，表明美国正处于经济衰退的早期阶段。</li>
<li>投资者的明智举措包括购买抗衰退股票和增加现金头寸。</li>
<li>这 10 只股票可能会造就下一波百万富翁 ›</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Imagine how much more effective investors would be at managing their portfolios if they knew a recession was at hand before the government officially declares a recession. Their long-term profits would almost certainly increase significantly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>想象一下，如果投资者在政府正式宣布经济衰退之前就知道衰退即将来临，他们在管理投资组合时会更加有效。他们的长期利润几乎肯定会显著增加。</p>
</div><p>With the Vicious Cycle Index (VCI), no imagination is required. <strong>Moody's Analytics</strong>(NYSE: MCO) chief economist Mark Zandi and his team created the indicator. And it has signaled 100% of U.S. recessions over the last 80 years -- without a single false alarm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有了恶性循环指数（VCI），就不需要想象。<strong>穆迪分析</strong>（NYSE: MCO）首席经济学家马克·赞迪及其团队创建了这一指标。它在过去 80 年中准确预测了 100% 的美国经济衰退——没有一次虚假警报。</p>
</div><p><em><strong>Will AI create the world's first trillionaire?</strong> Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an &#34;Indispensable Monopoly&#34; providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. <strong>Continue »</strong></em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>人工智能会创造出世界上第一个万亿富翁吗？</strong> 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知的公司报告，该公司被称为 “不可或缺的垄断”，提供英伟达和英特尔都需要的关键技术。<strong>继续 »</strong></em></p>
</div><p>What is this indicator saying now? And what should investors do?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个指标现在在说什么？投资者应该怎么做？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2NTMzOC9yZWNlc3Npb24tYWhlYWQtc2lnbi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F865338%2Frecession-ahead-sign.jpg&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why the Vicious Cycle Index is so accurate</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么恶性循环指数如此准确</h2>
</div><p>Before we answer those questions, it's helpful to understand exactly what the VCI is and why it's so accurate. Zandi and his colleagues based the index on the Sahm Rule, developed by economist Claudia Sahm. The Sahm Rule signals that the economy is in the early stages of a recession when the average unemployment rate over three months rises by 0.5% above its 12-month low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在回答这些问题之前，了解 VCI 究竟是什么以及它为何如此准确是有帮助的。赞迪和他的同事们基于经济学家克劳迪娅·萨姆开发的萨姆规则建立了该指数。当三个月的平均失业率比 12 个月的最低点上升 0.5% 时，萨姆规则会发出经济处于衰退早期阶段的信号。</p>
</div><p>The approach employed by the Sahm Rule has been highly accurate. It correctly identified nearly every recession since 1950, with only two false alarms. One of those false positives occurred in 1959. Although the U.S. economy didn't enter a recession when the Sahm Rule flashed, a recession began six months later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>萨姆规则采用的方法非常准确。自 1950 年以来，它几乎正确识别了每一次经济衰退，仅有两次虚假警报。其中一次虚假警报发生在 1959 年。尽管当时萨姆规则发出信号时美国经济并未进入衰退，但六个月后却开始了衰退。</p>
</div><p>The VCI made two improvements to the Sahm Rule, making it more powerful. First, the index adjusts unemployment numbers using a five-year moving average of labor force participation. This helps capture workers who give up on finding a job and leave the workforce. Second, the VCI indicates that the economy is in recession when the average unemployment rate over three months rises by more than 1% over the previous 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>VCI 对萨姆规则进行了两项改进，使其更具威力。首先，该指数使用五年移动平均的劳动参与率来调整失业数据。这有助于捕捉那些放弃找工作并离开劳动力市场的工人。其次，当三个月的平均失业率比前 12 个月上升超过 1% 时，VCI 会指示经济处于衰退状态。</p>
</div><p>The key to the VCI's greater accuracy compared to the Sahm Rule is that it factors in rising unemployment and lower workforce participation. This change helps it avoid false alarms that can flash when the labor market appears healthy but is actually weakening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>VCI 相比萨姆规则更高准确性的关键在于它考虑了失业率上升和劳动力参与率下降。这一变化有助于避免在劳动力市场看似健康但实际上正在恶化时出现的虚假警报。</p>
</div><h2>What the indicator is saying about the economy right now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>该指标目前对经济的看法</h2>
</div><p>What does the VCI reflect about the U.S. economy now? Zandi believes the index indicates we're already in a recession, even though the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) hasn't officially confirmed one yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>VCI 现在反映了美国经济的什么情况？赞迪认为该指数表明我们已经处于衰退之中，尽管国家经济研究局（NBER）尚未正式确认。</p>
</div><p>The Sahm Rule isn't indicating a recession, in part because of the seemingly robust 178,000 added jobs in March. However, Moody Analytics' Zandi posted on X (formerly Twitter) that there's more to the story with the March employment gains. He stated that the jobs increase &#34;comes after a big decline in February, when brutal winter and a labor strike at Kaiser Permanente weighed heavily on jobs.&#34; Zandi argued that the U.S. has actually added only a few jobs since April 2025 -- and would have a net loss without healthcare employment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>萨姆规则并未指示衰退，部分原因是 3 月份新增的 178,000 个就业岗位似乎强劲。然而，穆迪分析的赞迪在 X（前身为 Twitter）上发布消息称，3 月份的就业增长还有更多背景。他表示，新增就业 “是在 2 月份大幅下降之后，严酷的冬季和凯撒医疗的劳工罢工对就业造成了沉重打击。” 赞迪认为，自 2025 年 4 月以来，美国实际上只增加了少量就业岗位——如果没有医疗行业的就业，净就业将会减少。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, the February jobs numbers don't reflect the oil shock created by the war with Iran. The conflict is driving inflation higher. Meanwhile, the labor-force participation rate has fallen to 61.9%, indicating that more Americans are giving up on finding a job. Consumer confidence also hit a record low in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，2 月份的就业数据并未反映与伊朗战争相关的油价冲击。冲突正在推动通货膨胀上升。同时，劳动力参与率已降至 61.9%，这表明越来越多的美国人放弃了找工作。消费者信心在 4 月份也创下了历史新低。</p>
</div><p>Moody's Analytics has raised its probability that the U.S. economy will enter a recession over the next 12 months to 48.6%. That's higher than EY-Parthenon's 40% chance and <strong>Goldman Sachs</strong>' (NYSE: GS) 30% odds of recession. However, those organizations don't use the VCI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穆迪分析已将美国经济在未来 12 个月内进入衰退的概率提高至 48.6%。这高于安永 - 帕森顿的 40% 和 <strong>高盛</strong>（NYSE: GS）的 30% 衰退概率。然而，这些机构并未使用 VCI。</p>
</div><h2>What should investors do?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者应该怎么做？</h2>
</div><p>Above all, investors shouldn't panic. No economic indicator is infallible -- even one like the VCI that has a perfect track record. However, it's a good idea to be prepared for a recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最重要的是，投资者不应惊慌。没有任何经济指标是万无一失的——即使是像 VCI 这样有完美记录的指标。然而，做好衰退的准备是个好主意。</p>
</div><p>One smart move is to buy recession-proof stocks. Three sectors that tend to hold up well during recessions are consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个明智的举措是购买抗衰退股票。三个在衰退期间表现良好的行业是消费品、医疗保健和公用事业。</p>
</div><p><strong>Walmart</strong>(NASDAQ: WMT) is a good example of a recession-resistant consumer staples stock. <strong>AbbVie</strong>(NYSE: ABBV) is a major drugmaker whose business shouldn't be significantly impacted by a recession. <strong>American States Water</strong>(NYSE: AWR) is a leading electric utility that can easily weather an economic decline. All three stocks are Dividend Kings, an elite group of companies that have increased their dividends for at least 50 consecutive years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>沃尔玛</strong>（NASDAQ: WMT）是抗衰退消费品股票的一个好例子。<strong>艾伯维</strong>（NYSE: ABBV）是一家主要制药公司，其业务不应受到衰退的显著影响。<strong>美国消费品水务</strong>（NYSE: AWR）是一家领先的电力公用事业公司，能够轻松应对经济衰退。这三只股票都是股息之王，属于至少连续 50 年增加股息的精英公司。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, investors may want to be cautious about buying cyclical stocks that could pull back sharply if the economy weakens. Small-cap stocks are also often more vulnerable during recessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，投资者可能想要谨慎购买周期性股票，因为如果经济疲软，这些股票可能会大幅回调。小型股在衰退期间也往往更脆弱。</p>
</div><p>It doesn't hurt to build up a cash position, either. Recessions usually create attractive buying opportunities, so having some cash to deploy could pay off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增加现金头寸也没有坏处。衰退通常会创造出有吸引力的购买机会，因此拥有一些现金以便投资可能会带来回报。</p>
</div><p>What if you ignore the VCI's flashing warning and a recession comes? Hang tight. Recessions typically don't last all that long. Stocks eventually recover. Staying focus on the long term will likely help you make more money than panic selling will.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你忽视了 VCI 发出的警告信号而衰退真的来临怎么办？保持冷静。衰退通常不会持续太久。股票最终会恢复。专注于长期投资可能会帮助你赚到比恐慌性抛售更多的钱。</p>
</div><h2>Where to invest $1,000 right now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在投资$1,000 的地方</h2>
</div><p>When our analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, <em>Stock Advisor’s</em> total average return is 968%* — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 191% for the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当我们的分析师团队有股票推荐时，听取建议是值得的。毕竟，_Stock Advisor_的总平均回报率为 968%*——相比于标准普尔 500 的 191% 表现出色。</p>
</div><p>They just revealed what they believe are the <strong>10 best stocks</strong> for investors to buy right now, <strong>available when you join_Stock Advisor._</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们刚刚透露了他们认为目前投资者应该购买的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong>，<strong>加入_Stock Advisor_即可获取。</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>See the stocks »</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看股票 »</strong></p>
</div><p><em>*Stock Advisor returns as of April 14, 2026.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>截至 2026 年 4 月 14 日的股票顾问回报。</em></p>
</div><p><em>Keith Speights has positions in AbbVie. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AbbVie, Goldman Sachs Group, Moody's, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Keith Speights 持有艾伯维的股份。Motley Fool 持有并推荐艾伯维、高盛集团、穆迪和沃尔玛的股份。Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
</div><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文所表达的观点和意见仅代表作者个人观点，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点。</p>
</div>

This Indicator Has Called Every Recession Over the Last 80 Years. Here's What It's Saying Now.

- 恶性循环指数（VCI）显示美国正处于经济衰退的早期阶段。  
- 投资者应考虑购买抗衰退股票并增加现金储备。  
- VCI 准确预示了自 1945 年以来的每次衰退，没有出现虚假警报。

nasdaq

Amer States Wate

美国消费品 ETF - iShares

2 倍做多必需消费品 ETF - ProShares

在线零售 ETF - ProShares

线上零售 ETF - Amplify

医疗业 ETF - Vanguard

标普零售指数 ETF - SPDR

食品饮料 ETF - PowerShares

日常消费品 ETF - SPDR

医疗业 ETF - SPDR

标普全球医疗股指数 ETF - iShares

医药突破 ETF - ALPS

零售业 ETF - VanEck Vectors

电子商务 ETF - GlobalX

穆迪

英伟达

英特尔

高盛

标普 500 指数

纳斯达克 OMX 交易所

NVIDIA Corporation

GS Hldg R

这个指标在过去 80 年中成功预测了每一次经济衰退。它现在传递了什么信号？