<ul>
<li>投资者权衡伊朗停火谈判前景及经济展望，美元维持基本持平</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>能源价格持续上涨且增长风险犹存，欧央行与美联储对利率调整持谨慎态度</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>美国进口价格涨幅不及预期</li>
</ul><p>（更新至美国午后交易时段）</p><p>作者：查克·米科拉日扎克</p><p>纽约，4 月 15 日（路透社）- 周三，美元微跌，全天在基本持平水平附近窄幅波动，因投资者评估伊朗与美国即将恢复和平谈判的可能性。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，与伊朗的战争已接近尾声，作为调解方的巴基斯坦陆军参谋长已抵达德黑兰，试图防止敌对行动再次爆发。</p><p>一名消息人士告诉路透社，以色列预计上周与伊朗达成的两周停火协议将得到延长，当时美国和伊朗官员正在考虑重返巴基斯坦进行进一步会谈。白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·利维特对记者表示，有关白宫请求延长伊朗战争停火协议的报道是错误的。自 2 月 28 日美以袭击伊朗以来，霍尔木兹海峡实际上已被封锁，该海峡是全球五分之一石油和天然气运输以及其他关键产品（如化肥）的关键水道。这导致油价飙升，并引发人们对全球经济和通胀受损的担忧。</p><p>Monex USA 高级交易主管胡安·佩雷斯表示：“我们正试图弄清楚谈判是否会继续、停火是否会持续，以及最终紧张局势能否被巩固或缓解，但没人确切知道事态将如何发展。”</p><p>“我们不仅受制于关于冲突的头版头条，现在的焦点也将转向经济增长。”</p><p>美元指数持续走低 衡量美元对一篮子货币表现的美元指数当日下跌 0.01%，收于 98.06，此前最高触及 98.286，日内最低点为 98.005。美国原油（CLc1）上涨 0.13%，至每桶 91.39 美元；布伦特原油（LCOc1）微涨 0.06%，至每桶 94.87 美元。四位消息人士告诉路透社，欧洲央行（ECB）决策者对在本月立即加息持谨慎态度，因为他们尚未看到由能源引发的通胀冲击变得广泛化或根深蒂固的确凿证据。欧元（EUR=）最新上涨 0.03%，报 1.1799 美元。欧央行决策者约阿希姆·纳格尔周三表示，围绕霍尔木兹海峡的情况对于央行下一步政策决策至关重要，而同僚何塞·路易斯·埃斯科瓦萨则表示，其经济基准情景（预计伊朗战争的影响是短暂的）正在能源市场显现。美元指数周二曾跌至 97.968，为自 3 月 2 日以来的最低水平，那是美以开战后的第一个交易日，但投资者表示，对美国资产的强劲需求以及美国降息前景的减弱应能支撑美元，避免更大幅度的下跌。此次下跌使美元指数连续第八个交易日收跌，创下自 12 月 3 日以来最长的连跌纪录（当时投资者普遍预期美联储今年至少降息两次）。</p><p>重点关注经济数据 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特告诉 CNBC，受伊朗战争影响，本季度经济增速将放缓，但整体状况良好并将实现反弹。他补充说，油价似乎并未推高通胀预期。美国劳工部数据显示，上月进口价格上涨 0.8%，而经下修后 2 月份涨幅为 0.9%，低于路透社调查经济学家预测的 2% 涨幅。截至 3 月的 12 个月中，进口价格飙升至 2.1%。</p><p>克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克表示，虽然她认为美国央行目前没有紧迫需要改变利率目标设定，但未来仍可能出现降息甚至加息。兑日元（JPY=），美元走强 0.18%，至 159.05，接近 160 关口，该价位曾引发日本官员干预汇市。英镑（GBP=）兑美元走强 0.06%，至 1.3572 美元。</p><p>进出口价格与美元走势</p><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/xmvjyerbxpr/impexp.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="649" height="400" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/xmvjyerbxpr/impexp.png"/></p><p>货币兑美元的走势</p><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/AUTOMATED-20260414/G20-CURRENCY-VS-USD-PCT-CHG-ARROW-SINCE-ELEX/egpbeqyxrvq/chart_eikon.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="940" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/AUTOMATED-20260414/G20-CURRENCY-VS-USD-PCT-CHG-ARROW-SINCE-ELEX/egpbeqyxrvq/chart_eikon.jpg"/></p>

谈判桌外的较量升级！伊朗外长递交停战条件，并宣布形成霍尔木兹海峡综合管理方案。特朗普则果断取消赴巴会谈，维持封锁态势。这场“以强对强”的博弈，究竟会点燃战火还是引出转机？欢迎在话题下分享你的观点。

<p>谈判桌外的较量升级！伊朗外长递交停战条件，并宣布形成霍尔木兹海峡综合管理方案。特朗普则果断取消赴巴会谈，维持封锁态势。这场“以强对强”的博弈，究竟会点燃战火还是引出转机？欢迎在话题下分享你的观点。</p>

美伊互不相让：“二次谈判”还有戏吗？

德银美元指数 做空 - PowerShares

彭博美元指数 做多 - WisdomTree

<ul>
<li>Dollar holds near unchanged mark as investors weigh prospects for Iran ceasefire talks, economic outlook</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>投资者权衡伊朗停火谈判前景及经济展望，美元维持基本持平</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>ECB, Fed cautious on rate moves as energy prices, growth risks persist</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>能源价格持续上涨且增长风险犹存，欧央行与美联储对利率调整持谨慎态度</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>US import prices below expectations</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美国进口价格涨幅不及预期</li>
</ul></div><p>(Updates to afternoon US trading)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（更新至美国午后交易时段）</p></div><p>By Chuck Mikolajczak</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：查克·米科拉日扎克</p></div><p>NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar edged lower on Wednesday and wasfluctuating narrowly on either side of unchanged throughout the day as investors assessed the likelihood that peace talks between Iran and the United States would resume shortly. U.S. President Donald Trump said the war with Iran was close to over, as the army chief of mediator Pakistan arrived in Tehran to try to prevent a renewed outbreak of hostilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，4 月 15 日（路透社）- 周三，美元微跌，全天在基本持平水平附近窄幅波动，因投资者评估伊朗与美国即将恢复和平谈判的可能性。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，与伊朗的战争已接近尾声，作为调解方的巴基斯坦陆军参谋长已抵达德黑兰，试图防止敌对行动再次爆发。</p></div><p>A source told Reuters that Israel expects a two-week ceasefire, agreed to last week with the Iranians, to be extended as U.S. and Iranian officials weighed a return to Pakistan for further talks. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that reports the White House had requested an extensionof the ceasefire in the Iran war were wrong. The war has effectively throttled the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments as well as other key products such as fertilizer, since the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran began on February 28. That has sent oil prices surging and ignited concerns about the hit to global growth and inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一名消息人士告诉路透社，以色列预计上周与伊朗达成的两周停火协议将得到延长，当时美国和伊朗官员正在考虑重返巴基斯坦进行进一步会谈。白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·利维特对记者表示，有关白宫请求延长伊朗战争停火协议的报道是错误的。自 2 月 28 日美以袭击伊朗以来，霍尔木兹海峡实际上已被封锁，该海峡是全球五分之一石油和天然气运输以及其他关键产品（如化肥）的关键水道。这导致油价飙升，并引发人们对全球经济和通胀受损的担忧。</p></div><p>“We’re trying to figure out if negotiations are going to continue, if the ceasefire will continue, and if ultimately tensions can be established as solidified or eased, but no one knows exactly where things are going,” said Juan Perez, senior director of trading at Monex USA.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Monex USA 高级交易主管胡安·佩雷斯表示：“我们正试图弄清楚谈判是否会继续、停火是否会持续，以及最终紧张局势能否被巩固或缓解，但没人确切知道事态将如何发展。”</p></div><p>“Not only are we at the mercy of the headlines over the conflict, but now the focus is going to be on economic growth.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们不仅受制于关于冲突的头版头条，现在的焦点也将转向经济增长。”</p></div><p>DOLLAR INDEX CONTINUES TO FADE The dollar index (=USD) , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, shed 0.01% on the day to 98.06 after climbing as high as 98.286. The session low was 98.005. U.S. crude (CLc1) rose 0.13% to $91.39 a barrel and Brent (LCOc1) ticked up to $94.87 per barrel, a gain of 0.06% on the day. Four sources told Reuters the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are wary about raising interest rates as soon as this month, as they have yet to see firm evidence that an energy-induced inflation shock is becoming broad-based or entrenched. The euro (EUR=) was last up 0.03% at $1.1799. ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said on Wednesday the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz will be crucial in informing the central bank’s next policy decision, while fellow policymaker José Luis Escrivá saidits baseline scenario for the economy, which envisages a short-lived impact from the Iran war, is materializing on the energy market. The dollar index had dropped as low as 97.968 on Tuesday, its weakest level since March 2, the first trading day after the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began, but investors said robust demand for U.S. assets and waning prospects for U.S. interest rate cuts should buttress it against sharper declines. The decline puts the dollar index on track for an eighth straight daily loss, its longest since a nine-session skid that ended on December 3, when investors were largely expecting at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元指数持续走低 衡量美元对一篮子货币表现的美元指数当日下跌 0.01%，收于 98.06，此前最高触及 98.286，日内最低点为 98.005。美国原油（CLc1）上涨 0.13%，至每桶 91.39 美元；布伦特原油（LCOc1）微涨 0.06%，至每桶 94.87 美元。四位消息人士告诉路透社，欧洲央行（ECB）决策者对在本月立即加息持谨慎态度，因为他们尚未看到由能源引发的通胀冲击变得广泛化或根深蒂固的确凿证据。欧元（EUR=）最新上涨 0.03%，报 1.1799 美元。欧央行决策者约阿希姆·纳格尔周三表示，围绕霍尔木兹海峡的情况对于央行下一步政策决策至关重要，而同僚何塞·路易斯·埃斯科瓦萨则表示，其经济基准情景（预计伊朗战争的影响是短暂的）正在能源市场显现。美元指数周二曾跌至 97.968，为自 3 月 2 日以来的最低水平，那是美以开战后的第一个交易日，但投资者表示，对美国资产的强劲需求以及美国降息前景的减弱应能支撑美元，避免更大幅度的下跌。此次下跌使美元指数连续第八个交易日收跌，创下自 12 月 3 日以来最长的连跌纪录（当时投资者普遍预期美联储今年至少降息两次）。</p></div><p>ECONOMIC DATA IN FOCUS U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC the economy will be slower this quarter with the Iran war, but that it is in good shape and will rebound. He added that oil prices do not appear to be raising inflation expectations. The U.S. Labor Department said import prices rose 0.8% last month after a downwardly revised 0.9% gain in February, short of the 2% rise forecast by economists polled by Reuters. In the 12 months through March, import prices shot up 2.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重点关注经济数据 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特告诉 CNBC，受伊朗战争影响，本季度经济增速将放缓，但整体状况良好并将实现反弹。他补充说，油价似乎并未推高通胀预期。美国劳工部数据显示，上月进口价格上涨 0.8%，而经下修后 2 月份涨幅为 0.9%，低于路透社调查经济学家预测的 2% 涨幅。截至 3 月的 12 个月中，进口价格飙升至 2.1%。</p></div><p>Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said that while she sees no imminent need for the U.S. central bank to change its interest rate target-setting, future cuts or even hikes were possible. Against the yen (JPY=) , the dollar strengthened 0.18% to 159.05, moving closer to the 160 level that has sparked past interventions in the currency market by Japanese officials. Sterling (GBP=) strengthened 0.06% against the greenback to $1.3572.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克表示，虽然她认为美国央行目前没有紧迫需要改变利率目标设定，但未来仍可能出现降息甚至加息。兑日元（JPY=），美元走强 0.18%，至 159.05，接近 160 关口，该价位曾引发日本官员干预汇市。英镑（GBP=）兑美元走强 0.06%，至 1.3572 美元。</p></div><p>Import export prices and the dollar</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>进出口价格与美元走势</p></div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/xmvjyerbxpr/impexp.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/xmvjyerbxpr/impexp.png"/></p>
<p>Currency moves against the US dollar</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>货币兑美元的走势</p></div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/AUTOMATED-20260414/G20-CURRENCY-VS-USD-PCT-CHG-ARROW-SINCE-ELEX/egpbeqyxrvq/chart_eikon.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/AUTOMATED-20260414/G20-CURRENCY-VS-USD-PCT-CHG-ARROW-SINCE-ELEX/egpbeqyxrvq/chart_eikon.jpg"/></p>

外汇市场：美元随投资者评估美伊和平谈判重启概率而波动