<p>（此处表达的观点是作者作为路透社专栏作家的个人观点）</p><p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p><p>伦敦，4 月 16 日（路透社）——伊朗战争正在引发全球铝市场前所未有的危机，其潜在的灾难性连锁反应将波及建筑、包装、运输和绿色能源等各个行业。</p><p>即使战争明天结束，阿联酋环球铝业也可能需要长达一年时间才能从上月其 Al Taweelah 冶炼厂遭受导弹袭击造成的损害中恢复过来。</p><p>巴林铝业（ALBH.BH），中国以外最大的单点生产基地，也受到了冲击，尽管目前尚不清楚受损程度。在袭击发生前，由于电力短缺，Alba 已经减少了产量，卡塔尔铝业也是如此。</p><p>随着通过霍尔木兹海峡的航运受到严重限制，如果冶炼厂耗尽原材料库存，生产损失可能会进一步扩大。</p><p>根据咨询公司 Wood Mackenzie 的数据，全球市场今年可能面临高达 400 万公吨的供应赤字。</p><p>西方买家将承受此次巨大供应冲击的主要后果，如果政策制定者希望在未来几周内缓解影响，他们将面临一些艰难的抉择。</p><h3>薄弱的库存覆盖</h3><p>在过去，市场可以转向伦敦金属交易所（LME）获取额外金属。在上世纪十年初期，注册库存曾超过 500 万吨。</p><p>此后，LME 库存已缩减至 40 万吨以下，另有 10 万吨处于非仓单类别。</p><p>CME 仓库的库存也遭到侵蚀。自年初以来，可交割库存暴跌 70%，目前总计仅为 1,864 吨。</p><p>即便这些数据也存在夸大成分。俄罗斯金属在 3 月底占 LME 注册库存的 27 万吨，但由于乌克兰入侵后实施的制裁，许多西方用户无法使用这些金属。</p><p>交易商一直在争夺非俄罗斯部分的份额。有人在 3 月第一周取消了 9.8 万吨 LME 注册的印度铝，但上周又将其大部分重新转为仓单，因为期限价差剧烈波动。</p><p>基准现金对三个月价差（CMAL0-3）扩大至每吨 95.50 美元的向后结构，这是该市场自 2007 年以来最紧的状态。</p><h3>电力限制</h3><p>存在闲置的冶炼产能，特别是在美国和欧洲，理论上可以重新启动以帮助缓解实物金属供应的紧张局面。</p><p>然而，大多数此类产能是在之前的能源危机期间停运的。冶炼厂通过电解生产金属，典型的冶炼厂耗电量堪比波士顿这样大小的城市。</p><p>鉴于伊朗战争对能源价格的影响，那些被搁置的产能中，如果有能重启的，也将微乎其微。</p><p>事实上，在波斯湾敌对行动开始之前，全球廉价电力的短缺就已经迫使更多工厂关闭。</p><p>位于莫桑比克的 Mozal 铝冶炼厂由澳大利亚 South32 公司（S32.AX）控股并运营，该公司因未能获得经济可行的供电合同，于 3 月将其转入维护状态。</p><p>即使考虑到回收产量的增加以及制造业活动受能源打击导致的疲软需求，Wood Mackenzie 表示：“在未来 18 个月内，全球铝市场无法避免巨大的供应赤字。”</p><h3>令人难以接受的抉择</h3><p>这一赤字将在西方感受最为强烈，这将迫使政府做出一些令人难以接受的抉择。</p><p>有两个国家可以帮助缓解这一短缺。</p><p>第一个是中国，全球最大的铝生产国。问题在于，中国倾向于将其大部分金属加工成杆、板和线等半成品。</p><p>世界其他国家在过去十年里建立了针对中国出口洪流的贸易壁垒，指责北京破坏竞争对手。</p><p>西方铝用户需要的是原生金属和合金，而不是更多的廉价中国产品出口。</p><p>这就剩下了俄罗斯，它既生产原生金属，也生产海湾地区生产的各类增值合金。</p><p>日本制造商已经显示出回归俄罗斯供应链的迹象，尽管他们在 2022 年（俄罗斯）入侵后进行了自我制裁。</p><p>美国及欧洲的买家若要效仿，则需要政府颁发制裁豁免许可。</p><p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普决定将进口铝关税提高至 50%，这使美国的局势更加复杂。</p><p>这使得进口锭的成本比 LME 价格（CMAL3）高出 2,500 美元/吨以上，而 LME 价格本身正处于四年高位，约为 3,580 美元/吨。</p><p>目前，这仍然是一个价格和成本的问题。海湾地区的扰乱持续时间越长，库存消耗的速度就越快。</p><p>在某个阶段，这可能不再仅仅是价格问题，而是能否拥有足够金属以满足制造订单的问题。</p><p>（此处表达的观点是安迪·霍姆作为路透社专栏作家的个人观点。喜欢本专栏吗？请关注路透社 “开放利益”（ROI），这是您获取全球金融评论的新重要来源。在 LinkedIn 和 X 上关注 ROI。并在 Apple、Spotify 或路透社应用程序上收听每日播客《早间竞价》。订阅以让路透社记者每周七天讨论市场和金融领域的重大新闻。）</p><p>LME 铝库存低位且价差收窄</p><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4cpxKAX?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2544" height="1158" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4cpxKAX"/></p><p>（撰稿：安迪·霍姆；编辑：玛格丽塔·乔伊）</p><p>）</p>

华峰铝业

中国铝业

明泰铝业

南山铝业

凯撒铝业

美国铝业

云铝股份

世纪铝业

<p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（此处表达的观点是作者作为路透社专栏作家的个人观点）</p></div><p>By Andy Home</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p></div><p>LONDON, April 16 (Reuters) - The Iran war is triggering an unprecedented crisis in the global aluminium market with potentially devastating knock-on effects across sectors as diverse as construction, packaging, transport and green energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦，4 月 16 日（路透社）——伊朗战争正在引发全球铝市场前所未有的危机，其潜在的灾难性连锁反应将波及建筑、包装、运输和绿色能源等各个行业。</p></div><p>Even if the war were to end tomorrow, it could take up to a year for Emirates Global Aluminium to recover from the damage inflicted by a missile strike on its Al Taweelah smelter last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使战争明天结束，阿联酋环球铝业也可能需要长达一年时间才能从上月其 Al Taweelah 冶炼厂遭受导弹袭击造成的损害中恢复过来。</p></div><p>Aluminium Bahrain (ALBH.BH) , the largest single-site production plant outside of China, has also been hit, although the extent of the damage is currently unknown. Alba had already reduced output prior to the attack, as had Qatar Aluminium, due to a shortage of power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴林铝业（ALBH.BH），中国以外最大的单点生产基地，也受到了冲击，尽管目前尚不清楚受损程度。在袭击发生前，由于电力短缺，Alba 已经减少了产量，卡塔尔铝业也是如此。</p></div><p>With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained, the loss of production could rise further as smelters run through their stocks of raw materials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着通过霍尔木兹海峡的航运受到严重限制，如果冶炼厂耗尽原材料库存，生产损失可能会进一步扩大。</p></div><p>The global market is looking at a supply deficit of up to 4 million metric tons this year, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据咨询公司 Wood Mackenzie 的数据，全球市场今年可能面临高达 400 万公吨的供应赤字。</p></div><p>Western buyers will bear the brunt of that massive supply hit and policymakers will face some hard choices in the weeks ahead if they want to cushion the impact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西方买家将承受此次巨大供应冲击的主要后果，如果政策制定者希望在未来几周内缓解影响，他们将面临一些艰难的抉择。</p></div><h3>THIN INVENTORY COVER</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>薄弱的库存覆盖</h3></div><p>In times gone by the market could have turned to the London Metal Exchange (LME) for extra metal. Registered inventory exceeded 5 million tons in the first part of the last decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去，市场可以转向伦敦金属交易所（LME）获取额外金属。在上世纪十年初期，注册库存曾超过 500 万吨。</p></div><p>LME stocks have since shrunk to under 400,000 tons with another 100,000 tons sitting in the off-warrant category.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此后，LME 库存已缩减至 40 万吨以下，另有 10 万吨处于非仓单类别。</p></div><p>CME warehouses have also been raided. Total deliverable stocks have slumped by 70% since the start of the year and now total just 1,864 tons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CME 仓库的库存也遭到侵蚀。自年初以来，可交割库存暴跌 70%，目前总计仅为 1,864 吨。</p></div><p>Even those figures flatter to deceive. Russian metal, which many Western users can’t use due to sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine, accounted for 270,000 tons of registered LME inventory at the end of March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即便这些数据也存在夸大成分。俄罗斯金属在 3 月底占 LME 注册库存的 27 万吨，但由于乌克兰入侵后实施的制裁，许多西方用户无法使用这些金属。</p></div><p>Traders have been tussling over the non-Russian component. Someone cancelled 98,000 tons of LME-registered Indian aluminium in the first week of March, only to re-warrant most of it last week as time-spreads exploded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易商一直在争夺非俄罗斯部分的份额。有人在 3 月第一周取消了 9.8 万吨 LME 注册的印度铝，但上周又将其大部分重新转为仓单，因为期限价差剧烈波动。</p></div><p>The benchmark cash-to-three-months spread (CMAL0-3) flexed out to a backwardation of $95.50 per ton, the tightest the market’s been since 2007.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基准现金对三个月价差（CMAL0-3）扩大至每吨 95.50 美元的向后结构，这是该市场自 2007 年以来最紧的状态。</p></div><h3>POWER CONSTRAINTS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>电力限制</h3></div><p>There is idled smelter capacity, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, that could in theory be reactivated to help alleviate the squeeze on physical metal supplies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>存在闲置的冶炼产能，特别是在美国和欧洲，理论上可以重新启动以帮助缓解实物金属供应的紧张局面。</p></div><p>However, most of this capacity was taken offline during previous energy crises. Smelters produce metal by electrolysis, and a typical one can use as much power as a city the size of Boston.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，大多数此类产能是在之前的能源危机期间停运的。冶炼厂通过电解生产金属，典型的冶炼厂耗电量堪比波士顿这样大小的城市。</p></div><p>Given the impact of the Iran war on energy prices, it seems highly unlikely much, if any, of the mothballed capacity will return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于伊朗战争对能源价格的影响，那些被搁置的产能中，如果有能重启的，也将微乎其微。</p></div><p>Indeed, the global shortage of affordable power was already forcing more closures even before the start of hostilities in the Gulf.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，在波斯湾敌对行动开始之前，全球廉价电力的短缺就已经迫使更多工厂关闭。</p></div><p>The Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique, majority owned and operated by Australia’s South32 (S32.AX) , was placed on care and maintenance in March after the company failed to get an economically viable power supply contract.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>位于莫桑比克的 Mozal 铝冶炼厂由澳大利亚 South32 公司（S32.AX）控股并运营，该公司因未能获得经济可行的供电合同，于 3 月将其转入维护状态。</p></div><p>Even allowing for greater recycled production and softer demand due to the energy hit on manufacturing activity, “there is no escaping a large deficit in the global aluminium market over the next 18 months,” according to Wood Mackenzie.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使考虑到回收产量的增加以及制造业活动受能源打击导致的疲软需求，Wood Mackenzie 表示：“在未来 18 个月内，全球铝市场无法避免巨大的供应赤字。”</p></div><h3>UNPALATABLE CHOICES</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>令人难以接受的抉择</h3></div><p>That deficit is going to be felt most acutely in the West, which is going to force governments to make some unpalatable choices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一赤字将在西方感受最为强烈，这将迫使政府做出一些令人难以接受的抉择。</p></div><p>Two countries could help alleviate the shortfall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有两个国家可以帮助缓解这一短缺。</p></div><p>The first is China, the world’s largest aluminium producer. The problem is that China tends to process most of its metal into semi-manufactured products such as rod, plate and wire.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一个是中国，全球最大的铝生产国。问题在于，中国倾向于将其大部分金属加工成杆、板和线等半成品。</p></div><p>The rest of the world has spent the last decade erecting trade barriers against the Chinese export flood, accusing Beijing of undermining competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>世界其他国家在过去十年里建立了针对中国出口洪流的贸易壁垒，指责北京破坏竞争对手。</p></div><p>Western aluminium users need primary metal and alloy, not more cheap Chinese product exports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西方铝用户需要的是原生金属和合金，而不是更多的廉价中国产品出口。</p></div><p>That leaves Russia, which produces both primary metal and the array of value-added alloys produced in the Gulf.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就剩下了俄罗斯，它既生产原生金属，也生产海湾地区生产的各类增值合金。</p></div><p>Japanese manufacturers are already showing signsof returning to Russian supply, having self-sanctioned after the 2022 invasion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本制造商已经显示出回归俄罗斯供应链的迹象，尽管他们在 2022 年（俄罗斯）入侵后进行了自我制裁。</p></div><p>U.S. and European buyers would need government sanction waivers to follow suit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国及欧洲的买家若要效仿，则需要政府颁发制裁豁免许可。</p></div><p>The situation in the United States is compounded by President Donald Trump’s decision to hike import aluminium tariffs to 50%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普决定将进口铝关税提高至 50%，这使美国的局势更加复杂。</p></div><p>That has sent the cost of imported ingot to over $2,500 per ton above the LME price (CMAL3) , which is itself hovering at four-year highs of $3,580 per ton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得进口锭的成本比 LME 价格（CMAL3）高出 2,500 美元/吨以上，而 LME 价格本身正处于四年高位，约为 3,580 美元/吨。</p></div><p>For now, this remains a price and cost equation. The longer the Gulf disruption runs, the faster stocks deplete.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，这仍然是一个价格和成本的问题。海湾地区的扰乱持续时间越长，库存消耗的速度就越快。</p></div><p>At some stage it may stop being a question of price altogetherand become a question of simply having enough metal to meet manufacturing orders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在某个阶段，这可能不再仅仅是价格问题，而是能否拥有足够金属以满足制造订单的问题。</p></div><p>(The opinions expressed here are those of Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.) Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, and X. And listen to the Morning Bid daily podcast on Apple, Spotify, or the Reuters app. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（此处表达的观点是安迪·霍姆作为路透社专栏作家的个人观点。喜欢本专栏吗？请关注路透社 “开放利益”（ROI），这是您获取全球金融评论的新重要来源。在 LinkedIn 和 X 上关注 ROI。并在 Apple、Spotify 或路透社应用程序上收听每日播客《早间竞价》。订阅以让路透社记者每周七天讨论市场和金融领域的重大新闻。）</p></div><p>LME aluminium stocks are low and spreads tight</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LME 铝库存低位且价差收窄</p></div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4cpxKAX" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4cpxKAX"/></p>
<p>(Writing by Andy Home; Editing by Marguerita Choy)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（撰稿：安迪·霍姆；编辑：玛格丽塔·乔伊）</p></div><p>)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>）</p></div>

ROI-Aluminium in crisis: war, tariffs and a market running on empty: Andy Home

Reuters

ROI-铝业危机：战争、关税与枯竭的市场：安迪·霍姆