<ul>
<li>股市在周五休整，此前已收复 3 月跌幅</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>美元接近六周低点，避险需求消退</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>美伊可能在本周末会面；霍尔木兹海峡仍处于关闭状态</li>
</ul><p>（更新至亚洲午后）</p><p>作者：Ankur Banerjee</p><p>新加坡，4 月 17 日（路透社）- 亚洲股市有望迎来第二周的强劲涨幅，而油价被压制在每桶 100 美元以下，投资者在关键周末前降低风险敞口，该周末可能为中东战争的短期解决铺平道路。</p><p>黎巴嫩与以色列之间的为期 10 天的停火于周四生效，唐纳德·特朗普总统表示，美国与伊朗的下一次会议可能在本周末举行，届时当前的停火协议即将到期。</p><p>尽管作为全球五分之一石油和天然气供应通道的霍尔木兹海峡仍处于关闭状态，但投资者本月对任何显示局势缓和的迹象迅速持乐观态度。</p><p>这使得油价维持在每桶 100 美元以下，尽管仍远高于战前水平。布伦特原油期货（LCOc1）下跌逾 1%，至每桶 98.14 美元。美国西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货（CLc1）下跌 1.6%，至每桶 93.15 美元。</p><p>在股市方面，MSCI 亚太区除日本以外的广义指数（.MIAPJ0000PUS）下跌 0.8%，因为投资者在本月经历剧烈反弹后锁定利润。</p><p>该指数仍接近 3 月 2 日以来的最高位，即伊朗战争爆发后的首个交易日，并在 4 月上涨 14.5%，而上月下跌了 13.5%。</p><p>日本日经指数（.N225）在周四创下历史新高后于周五下滑 1%。几乎所有股市均已回到 2 月底战争爆发前的水平。</p><p>对于 M&amp;G 公共固定收益首席投资官 Andrew Chorlton 而言，过去两周的市场表现令人惊讶，市场愿意如此迅速地忽略冲突和能源冲击。</p><p>“政策制定者和央行行长关于此（冲突）所带来风险的言论与市场隐含的预期之间存在显著反差，” 他说。</p><p>Chorlton 补充道：“这似乎有些自满。不太可能不存在某些额外的风险溢价，无论是针对增长还是通胀。”</p><p>美元在 3 月受益于避险资金流入，但此后已回吐这些涨幅。欧元（EUR=）最新报 1.1779 美元，略低于前一交易日触及的七周高点。</p><p>美国基准标普 500 指数（.SPX）和科技股占比重的纳斯达克指数（.IXIC）在周四小幅上涨，连续第二天收于历史收盘高位。在亚洲交易时段，美国期货（EScv1）基本持平，而欧洲期货（STXEc1）指向温和开盘。</p><p>ATFX Global 首席市场策略师 Nick Twidale 表示：“我认为股市仍保持乐观，一些强劲的财报有所帮助，但——这是一个很大的转折——我们需要看到确凿证据表明和平将持续。”</p><p>“对我而言，这意味着海峡的全面重新开放，否则我们可能会在未来几天和几周内看到全球股市出现大幅回调。”</p><p>该水道的关闭引发了历史上最严重的油价冲击，并促使国际货币基金组织下调其全球经济前景预测，警告称长期冲突可能将世界推向衰退边缘。</p><p>衡量美元兑包括日元和欧元在内的一篮子货币的美元指数（=USD）报 98.24，徘徊在 3 月 2 日以来的最低点附近。该指数已连续八个交易日下跌至周三。</p><p>风险敏感型澳元（AUD=）报 0.7163 美元，徘徊在周四触及的四年高点附近。</p><p>日元（JPY=）兑美元略微走弱，报 159.40，因为投资者正在评估日本银行行长植田和男的言论，后者未暗示本月将加息。</p><p>这些言论将使交易者猜测下一次加息的时机，由于缺乏明确信号，市场减少了对日本银行 4 月 27 日至 28 日政策会议上加息的押注。</p>

中东和平曙光初现？特朗普称美伊谈判已"非常接近达成协议"，伊方据悉同意交出浓缩铀，同期以黎停火10天协议也宣告达成。霍尔木兹的风，要变了吗？你觉得这次能谈成吗？

<p>中东和平曙光初现？特朗普称美伊谈判已"非常接近达成协议"，伊方据悉同意交出浓缩铀，同期以黎停火10天协议也宣告达成。霍尔木兹的风，要变了吗？你觉得这次能谈成吗？</p>

美伊或重启谈判，中东局势现转机

黄金勘探商 ETF - GlobalX

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黄金矿 ETF - Sprott

<ul>
<li>Equities catch breath on Friday after recouping March losses</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>股市在周五休整，此前已收复 3 月跌幅</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>Dollar near six-week lows as demand for safe havens recedes</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美元接近六周低点，避险需求消退</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>US, Iran may meet at weekend; Strait of Hormuz remains closed</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美伊可能在本周末会面；霍尔木兹海峡仍处于关闭状态</li>
</ul></div><p>(Updates to Asia afternoon)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（更新至亚洲午后）</p></div><p>By Ankur Banerjee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Ankur Banerjee</p></div><p>SINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - Asian stocks headed for a second week of strong gains while oil prices were pinned below $100 a barrel with investors dialling back risk ahead of a crucial weekend that could pave the way for a near-term resolution to the Middle East war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新加坡，4 月 17 日（路透社）- 亚洲股市有望迎来第二周的强劲涨幅，而油价被压制在每桶 100 美元以下，投资者在关键周末前降低风险敞口，该周末可能为中东战争的短期解决铺平道路。</p></div><p>A 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel went into effect on Thursday and President Donald Trump said the next meeting between the U.S. and Iran may take place over the weekend, when their current ceasefire is due to expire.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黎巴嫩与以色列之间的为期 10 天的停火于周四生效，唐纳德·特朗普总统表示，美国与伊朗的下一次会议可能在本周末举行，届时当前的停火协议即将到期。</p></div><p>Investors have been quick to take an optimistic view on any signs of denouement this month, even though the Strait of Hormuz - through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply typically flows - remains closed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管作为全球五分之一石油和天然气供应通道的霍尔木兹海峡仍处于关闭状态，但投资者本月对任何显示局势缓和的迹象迅速持乐观态度。</p></div><p>That has kept oil prices below $100 per barrel though they remain well above the pre-war levels. Brent crude futures (LCOc1) dropped more than 1% to $98.14 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (CLc1) fell 1.6% to $93.15 a barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得油价维持在每桶 100 美元以下，尽管仍远高于战前水平。布伦特原油期货（LCOc1）下跌逾 1%，至每桶 98.14 美元。美国西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货（CLc1）下跌 1.6%，至每桶 93.15 美元。</p></div><p>In stocks, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.8% as investors locked in profits after a blistering rally this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股市方面，MSCI 亚太区除日本以外的广义指数（.MIAPJ0000PUS）下跌 0.8%，因为投资者在本月经历剧烈反弹后锁定利润。</p></div><p>The index remains close to its highest since March 2, the first trading day after the Iran war broke out, and is up 14.5% in April after dropping 13.5% last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该指数仍接近 3 月 2 日以来的最高位，即伊朗战争爆发后的首个交易日，并在 4 月上涨 14.5%，而上月下跌了 13.5%。</p></div><p>Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) slipped 1% after hitting a record high on Thursday. Almost all stock markets are back to levels before the war erupted at the end of February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本日经指数（.N225）在周四创下历史新高后于周五下滑 1%。几乎所有股市均已回到 2 月底战争爆发前的水平。</p></div><p>For Andrew Chorlton, CIO for public fixed income at M&amp;G, the last two weeks have been surprising in how quickly markets have been willing to look through the conflict and energy shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 M&amp;G 公共固定收益首席投资官 Andrew Chorlton 而言，过去两周的市场表现令人惊讶，市场愿意如此迅速地忽略冲突和能源冲击。</p></div><p>“There’s quite a strong contrast between what policymakers and central bankers are saying about the risks that this (conflict) is creating versus what the market is implying,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“政策制定者和央行行长关于此（冲突）所带来风险的言论与市场隐含的预期之间存在显著反差，” 他说。</p></div><p>“That seems somewhat complacent,” Chorlton added. “It seems unlikely that there shouldn’t be some additional risk premium priced in, either to growth or to inflation.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Chorlton 补充道：“这似乎有些自满。不太可能不存在某些额外的风险溢价，无论是针对增长还是通胀。”</p></div><p>The U.S. dollar benefited from safe-haven flows in March, but has since given up those gains. The euro (EUR=) last bought $1.1779, just below the seven-week high it touched in the previous session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元在 3 月受益于避险资金流入，但此后已回吐这些涨幅。欧元（EUR=）最新报 1.1779 美元，略低于前一交易日触及的七周高点。</p></div><p>The U.S. benchmark S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) rose modestly to record closing highs for a second straight day on Thursday. U.S. futures (EScv1) were little changed in Asian hours while European futures (STXEc1) pointed to a subdued open.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国基准标普 500 指数（.SPX）和科技股占比重的纳斯达克指数（.IXIC）在周四小幅上涨，连续第二天收于历史收盘高位。在亚洲交易时段，美国期货（EScv1）基本持平，而欧洲期货（STXEc1）指向温和开盘。</p></div><p>“I think equity markets are remaining positive and some solid U.S. earnings have helped, but - and it’s a big but - we need to see some concrete evidence that peace is going to last,” said Nick Twidale, chief market strategist at ATFX Global.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ATFX Global 首席市场策略师 Nick Twidale 表示：“我认为股市仍保持乐观，一些强劲的财报有所帮助，但——这是一个很大的转折——我们需要看到确凿证据表明和平将持续。”</p></div><p>“And to me, that is a full reopening of the Strait, or we could see some substantial corrections in global stocks in the coming days and weeks.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“对我而言，这意味着海峡的全面重新开放，否则我们可能会在未来几天和几周内看到全球股市出现大幅回调。”</p></div><p>Closure of the waterway has caused the worst oil price shock in history, and spurred the International Monetary Fund to downgrade its outlook for the global economy, warning that a prolonged conflict could push the world to the brink of recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该水道的关闭引发了历史上最严重的油价冲击，并促使国际货币基金组织下调其全球经济前景预测，警告称长期冲突可能将世界推向衰退边缘。</p></div><p>The dollar index (=USD) , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was at 98.24, loitering near its lowest since March 2. The index had declined for eight straight sessions through Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>衡量美元兑包括日元和欧元在内的一篮子货币的美元指数（=USD）报 98.24，徘徊在 3 月 2 日以来的最低点附近。该指数已连续八个交易日下跌至周三。</p></div><p>The risk-sensitive Australian dollar (AUD=) fetched $0.7163, drifting near the four-year high it touched on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>风险敏感型澳元（AUD=）报 0.7163 美元，徘徊在周四触及的四年高点附近。</p></div><p>The yen (JPY=) was slightly weaker at 159.40 per dollar as investors took stock of comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who steered clear of signalling a rate hike was on the cards this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元（JPY=）兑美元略微走弱，报 159.40，因为投资者正在评估日本银行行长植田和男的言论，后者未暗示本月将加息。</p></div><p>The remarks will keep traders guessing on the timing of the next rate hike, with the lack of a clear signal leading markets to reduce bets of a rate increase at the BOJ’s April 27-28 policy meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些言论将使交易者猜测下一次加息的时机，由于缺乏明确信号，市场减少了对日本银行 4 月 27 日至 28 日政策会议上加息的押注。</p></div>

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks power towards weekly gain, oil below $100 on peace deal hopes

Reuters

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全球市场：亚洲股市有望录得周度二连涨，和平协议希望助推油价跌破 100 美元