<p>[华盛顿/伊斯兰堡] 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示有信心很快能达成协议结束伊朗战争，并呼吁与德黑兰结盟的真主党停止攻击，因为黎巴嫩与以色列之间的为期 10 天的停火协议已生效。特朗普表示，美国与伊朗的下一次会议可能在周末举行，延长为期两周的停火是可能的，但可能不需要，因为德黑兰希望达成协议。他在白宫外对记者说：“我们将看看会发生什么。但我认为我们非常接近与伊朗达成协议。” 他补充说，如果达成协议并在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡签署，他可能会前往参加。几个小时后，特朗普在拉斯维加斯进一步表示，这场战争 “应该很快结束”。与伊朗的战争在美国并不受欢迎，并给特朗普带来了政治上的麻烦，距离国内关键的中期选举只有几个月时间。自 2 月 28 日开始的美以对伊朗的攻击引发了历史上最严重的油价冲击，并导致国际货币基金组织下调了全球经济前景，并警告称，长期冲突可能将世界推向衰退的边缘。一位参与美伊调解的巴基斯坦消息人士在 4 月 17 日（星期五）表示，背后外交方面取得了进展，双方即将举行的会议可能会导致协议的签署。消息人士表示，双方将首先签署一份谅解备忘录，随后在 60 天内签署一项全面协议。“详细协议稍后再来。双方原则上达成一致。技术细节稍后再处理，” 该消息人士在匿名的情况下表示。一位外交消息人士表示，关键的巴基斯坦调解人、陆军参谋长阿西姆·穆尼尔元帅自周三以来一直在德黑兰进行会谈，并在 “棘手问题” 上取得了突破。</p>
<h2>油价因达成协议的希望而下跌</h2>
<p>周五早盘，油价下跌，亚洲股市在中东冲突可能接近尾声的乐观情绪中，连续第二周强劲上涨，尽管霍尔木兹海峡这一全球五分之一石油和天然气供应的动脉仍然有效关闭。MSCI 亚太地区（不包括日本）股票指数下跌 0.8%，因投资者在 4 月的强劲反弹后锁定利润，该指数接近自伊朗战争爆发以来的最高点。日本日经指数在周四创下历史新高后下跌 1%，几乎所有股市都回到了战争前的水平。布伦特原油期货在格林威治标准时间 0434（新加坡时间周五 12:34）下跌至每桶 98.17 美元，而美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货下跌至每桶 93.47 美元，削减了前一交易日的涨幅。法国和英国将于周五主持约 40 个国家的会议，旨在向美国发出信号，表明一些特朗普曾批评未采取行动的亲密盟友，准备在条件允许时帮助恢复霍尔木兹海峡的航行自由。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/c272fedb57aaaf0c7ccb3cb293fdd6b14d2ea1ee960d7e5382463a375abd6d13?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/c272fedb57aaaf0c7ccb3cb293fdd6b14d2ea1ee960d7e5382463a375abd6d13"/></p>
<p>伊朗试图通过对船只收取通行费来加强对霍尔木兹海峡的控制，以确保安全通行。照片：路透社</p>
<p>伊朗基本上已关闭该海峡，除了自己的船只外，华盛顿本周对进入或离开伊朗港口的船只实施了封锁。分析人士表示，这一封锁可能会阻止大约 200 万桶每天的伊朗原油到达其主要买家中国。自战争开始以来，经过该海峡的船只数量仅为每天 130 多艘的平均水平。</p>
<h2>对 “有意义的谈判” 的希望</h2>
<p>黎巴嫩的停火于周四生效，特朗普表示他已与以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡和黎巴嫩总统约瑟夫·阿翁进行了交谈，并计划邀请他们在接下来的一两周内到白宫进行 “有意义的谈判”。伊朗坚持认为，任何和平协议也应涵盖黎巴嫩的冲突。伊朗媒体援引外交部发言人的话报道，停火是与美国达成的理解的一部分，并由巴基斯坦调解。“这可能是黎巴嫩的历史性一天。好事正在发生！！！” 特朗普在周四晚些时候的社交媒体上说。在早些时候的帖子中，他呼吁真主党尊重停火。“我希望真主党在这个重要时期表现得体。如果他们这样做，将是他们的一个伟大时刻。不能再杀戮。必须最终实现和平！” 他说。以色列与伊朗支持的真主党之间的冲突因美以与伊朗的战争而重新点燃。真主党在 3 月 2 日开火支持德黑兰，导致以色列在黎巴嫩的攻势，官方称已造成 2000 人死亡，距他们上一次重大冲突已过去 15 个月。周四午夜，贝鲁特部分地区响起庆祝性枪声，以庆祝停火的开始，目击者听到火箭发射的爆炸声，促使黎巴嫩军队发出安全警告并威胁逮捕。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/5d060d5b31df0a4e31b64fcf22f0bb6148dfff3e5846e65af1f559315d5041d4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/5d060d5b31df0a4e31b64fcf22f0bb6148dfff3e5846e65af1f559315d5041d4"/></p>
<p>黎巴嫩西顿的群众在 4 月 17 日庆祝，因黎巴嫩与以色列之间的停火协议生效，流离失所的人们返回家园。照片：路透社</p>
<p>但停火的局势依然脆弱，军方在周五早些时候报告称，以色列已经通过对几处南黎巴嫩村庄的间歇性炮击违反了停火协议。以色列军方没有立即对此作出回应，早些时候曾表示其部队仍在该地区部署，发言人称这是对真主党武装活动持续的回应。真主党在周四发布了一份关于其对以色列军事行动的长篇声明，列出了其最后一次攻击是在停火生效前 10 分钟。真主党高级官员比拉尔·拉基斯在停火开始前告诉 NBC 新闻，停火是 “必要的、迫切需要的，并且是所有人共同的要求”，但表示该组织不会遵从以色列要求其解除武装的要求，“除非在与更广泛的国家安全愿景相关的框架内”。</p>
<h2>核野心成为谈判障碍</h2>
<p>德黑兰的核野心在上周末伊斯兰堡的谈判中成为了一个障碍，美国提议伊朗暂停所有核活动 20 年。德黑兰则建议暂停三到五年，根据熟悉提案的人士的说法。特朗普在周四表示，伊朗已提出不拥有核武器超过 20 年的承诺。伊朗要求解除国际制裁，而华盛顿则要求将任何高度浓缩铀从伊朗移除。两名伊朗消息人士表示，关于高度浓缩铀库存的妥协迹象显现，德黑兰正在考虑将部分库存运出国境。路透社</p>
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<p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布与伊朗的协议即将达成，并敦促真主党保持停火，因为黎巴嫩和以色列之间的休战开始。特朗普表示，可能在本周末与伊朗举行会晤，并希望在 60 天内达成全面协议。与此同时，尽管霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势仍在持续，油价因对和平的乐观情绪而下跌。特朗普还计划邀请以色列和黎巴嫩领导人在白宫进行讨论，强调需要达成一个更广泛的和平协议，包括黎巴嫩</p>

<p>[WASHINGTON/ISLAMABAD] US President Donald Trump expressed confidence that an agreement could soon be reached to end the Iran war and urged the Teheran-aligned Hizbollah group to hold its fire as a 10-day truce went in to effect between Lebanon and Israel. Trump said the next meeting between the US and Iran could take place at the weekend and an extension of a two-week ceasefire was possible, but may not be needed as Teheran wanted a deal. “We’re going to see what happens. But I think we’re very close to making a deal with Iran,” he told reporters outside the White House, adding if an agreement was reached and signed in the Pakistani capital Islamabad, he may go there for the occasion. Hours later while in Las Vegas, Trump went further, saying the war “should be ending pretty soon”. The war with Iran has been unpopular in the US and has left Trump with a political headache just months before a crucial midterm election at home. The US-Israeli attack on Iran that started on Feb 28 has triggered the worst oil price shock in history and led to an International Monetary Fund downgrade of its outlook for the global economy and a warning that prolonged conflict could push the world to the brink of recession. A Pakistani source involved in mediating between the US and Iran said on Friday (Apr 17) there was progress in backdoor diplomacy and that an upcoming meeting between the two sides could result in the signing of an agreement. The two sides would first sign a memorandum of understanding followed by a comprehensive agreement within 60 days, the source said. “Detailed agreement comes later. Both sides are agreeing in principle. And technical bits come later,” the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity. A diplomatic source said the key Pakistani mediator, army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, had been holding talks in Teheran since Wednesday and had made a breakthrough on “sticky issues”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[华盛顿/伊斯兰堡] 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示有信心很快能达成协议结束伊朗战争，并呼吁与德黑兰结盟的真主党停止攻击，因为黎巴嫩与以色列之间的为期 10 天的停火协议已生效。特朗普表示，美国与伊朗的下一次会议可能在周末举行，延长为期两周的停火是可能的，但可能不需要，因为德黑兰希望达成协议。他在白宫外对记者说：“我们将看看会发生什么。但我认为我们非常接近与伊朗达成协议。” 他补充说，如果达成协议并在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡签署，他可能会前往参加。几个小时后，特朗普在拉斯维加斯进一步表示，这场战争 “应该很快结束”。与伊朗的战争在美国并不受欢迎，并给特朗普带来了政治上的麻烦，距离国内关键的中期选举只有几个月时间。自 2 月 28 日开始的美以对伊朗的攻击引发了历史上最严重的油价冲击，并导致国际货币基金组织下调了全球经济前景，并警告称，长期冲突可能将世界推向衰退的边缘。一位参与美伊调解的巴基斯坦消息人士在 4 月 17 日（星期五）表示，背后外交方面取得了进展，双方即将举行的会议可能会导致协议的签署。消息人士表示，双方将首先签署一份谅解备忘录，随后在 60 天内签署一项全面协议。“详细协议稍后再来。双方原则上达成一致。技术细节稍后再处理，” 该消息人士在匿名的情况下表示。一位外交消息人士表示，关键的巴基斯坦调解人、陆军参谋长阿西姆·穆尼尔元帅自周三以来一直在德黑兰进行会谈，并在 “棘手问题” 上取得了突破。</p>
</div><h2>Oil price falls on deal hopes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>油价因达成协议的希望而下跌</h2>
</div><p>Oil prices fell in early trade on Friday and Asian stocks headed for a second week of strong gains on optimism the Middle East conflict could be nearing an end, even though the critical Strait of Hormuz, an artery for a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply, remains effectively closed. The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.8 per cent as investors locked in profits after a blistering rally in April, with the index close to its highest since the Iran war broke out. Japan’s Nikkei slipped 1 per cent after hitting a record high on Thursday and almost all stock markets were back to pre-war levels. Brent crude futures declined to US$98.17 a barrel at 0434 GMT (12.34 pm on Friday in Singapore) while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell to US$93.47 a barrel, trimming gains from the previous session. France and Britain will chair a meeting on Friday of around 40 countries aimed at signalling to the US that some of its closest allies, many chided by Trump for failing to act, are ready to help restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz once conditions allow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五早盘，油价下跌，亚洲股市在中东冲突可能接近尾声的乐观情绪中，连续第二周强劲上涨，尽管霍尔木兹海峡这一全球五分之一石油和天然气供应的动脉仍然有效关闭。MSCI 亚太地区（不包括日本）股票指数下跌 0.8%，因投资者在 4 月的强劲反弹后锁定利润，该指数接近自伊朗战争爆发以来的最高点。日本日经指数在周四创下历史新高后下跌 1%，几乎所有股市都回到了战争前的水平。布伦特原油期货在格林威治标准时间 0434（新加坡时间周五 12:34）下跌至每桶 98.17 美元，而美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货下跌至每桶 93.47 美元，削减了前一交易日的涨幅。法国和英国将于周五主持约 40 个国家的会议，旨在向美国发出信号，表明一些特朗普曾批评未采取行动的亲密盟友，准备在条件允许时帮助恢复霍尔木兹海峡的航行自由。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/c272fedb57aaaf0c7ccb3cb293fdd6b14d2ea1ee960d7e5382463a375abd6d13" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/c272fedb57aaaf0c7ccb3cb293fdd6b14d2ea1ee960d7e5382463a375abd6d13"/></p>
<p>Iran has sought to tighten its grip over the Strait of Hormuz by charging tolls on vessels to ensure safe passage. PHOTO: REUTERS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗试图通过对船只收取通行费来加强对霍尔木兹海峡的控制，以确保安全通行。照片：路透社</p>
</div><p>Iran has largely closed the strait to ships other than its own, and Washington this week imposed a blockade on ships entering or leaving Iranian ports. Analysts said the blockade could prevent roughly 2 million barrels per day of Iranian crude from reaching its primary buyer China. Only a trickle of vessels have passed through the strait since the war started, compared to an average 130-plus each day before the conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗基本上已关闭该海峡，除了自己的船只外，华盛顿本周对进入或离开伊朗港口的船只实施了封锁。分析人士表示，这一封锁可能会阻止大约 200 万桶每天的伊朗原油到达其主要买家中国。自战争开始以来，经过该海峡的船只数量仅为每天 130 多艘的平均水平。</p>
</div><h2>Hopes for ‘meaningful talks’</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对 “有意义的谈判” 的希望</h2>
</div><p>The ceasefire in Lebanon went into effect on Thursday and Trump said he had spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese counterpart Joseph Aoun and planned to invite them to the White House for “meaningful talks” that could happen over the next week or two. Iran has insisted that any peace deal should also cover the fighting in Lebanon. The ceasefire was part of an understanding reached with the US and mediated by Pakistan, Iranian media reported, citing a foreign ministry spokesperson. “May have been a historic day for Lebanon. Good things are happening!!!” Trump said on social media late on Thursday. In an earlier post, he urged Hizbollah to respect the ceasefire. “I hope Hizbollah acts nicely and well during this important period of time. It will be an GREAT moment for them if they do. No more killing. Must finally have PEACE!” he said. Conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed Hizbollah in Lebanon was reignited by the US-Israeli war with Iran. Hizbollah opened fire in support of Teheran on Mar 2, prompting an Israeli offensive in Lebanon that authorities say has killed 2,000 people, 15 months after their last major conflict. Celebratory gunfire rang out across parts of Beirut as the clock struck midnight on Thursday to mark the start of the truce and witnesses heard explosions from rockets fired in celebration, prompting a safety warning and threat of arrests from the Lebanese Army.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黎巴嫩的停火于周四生效，特朗普表示他已与以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡和黎巴嫩总统约瑟夫·阿翁进行了交谈，并计划邀请他们在接下来的一两周内到白宫进行 “有意义的谈判”。伊朗坚持认为，任何和平协议也应涵盖黎巴嫩的冲突。伊朗媒体援引外交部发言人的话报道，停火是与美国达成的理解的一部分，并由巴基斯坦调解。“这可能是黎巴嫩的历史性一天。好事正在发生！！！” 特朗普在周四晚些时候的社交媒体上说。在早些时候的帖子中，他呼吁真主党尊重停火。“我希望真主党在这个重要时期表现得体。如果他们这样做，将是他们的一个伟大时刻。不能再杀戮。必须最终实现和平！” 他说。以色列与伊朗支持的真主党之间的冲突因美以与伊朗的战争而重新点燃。真主党在 3 月 2 日开火支持德黑兰，导致以色列在黎巴嫩的攻势，官方称已造成 2000 人死亡，距他们上一次重大冲突已过去 15 个月。周四午夜，贝鲁特部分地区响起庆祝性枪声，以庆祝停火的开始，目击者听到火箭发射的爆炸声，促使黎巴嫩军队发出安全警告并威胁逮捕。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/5d060d5b31df0a4e31b64fcf22f0bb6148dfff3e5846e65af1f559315d5041d4" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/5d060d5b31df0a4e31b64fcf22f0bb6148dfff3e5846e65af1f559315d5041d4"/></p>
<p>A crowd in Sidon, Lebanon, celebrates on Apr 17 as displaced people return to their homes after a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel went into effect. PHOTO: REUTERS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黎巴嫩西顿的群众在 4 月 17 日庆祝，因黎巴嫩与以色列之间的停火协议生效，流离失所的人们返回家园。照片：路透社</p>
</div><p>But the pause in hostilities remained fragile, with the army early on Friday reporting that Israel had already violated the ceasefire with intermittent shelling of several southern Lebanese villages. There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military, which had said earlier that its forces remained deployed in the area, in what a spokesperson said was in response to continued Hizbollah militant activity. Hizbollah released a lengthy statement on its military operations against Israel throughout Thursday, which listed its last attack as being 10 minutes before the ceasefire took effect. The truce was “essential, urgently needed and a demand shared by all,” senior Hizbollah official Bilal Lakkiss told NBC News ahead of the start of the ceasefire, but said the group would not comply with Israel’s demand that it disarm “except within a framework tied to a broader national security vision”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但停火的局势依然脆弱，军方在周五早些时候报告称，以色列已经通过对几处南黎巴嫩村庄的间歇性炮击违反了停火协议。以色列军方没有立即对此作出回应，早些时候曾表示其部队仍在该地区部署，发言人称这是对真主党武装活动持续的回应。真主党在周四发布了一份关于其对以色列军事行动的长篇声明，列出了其最后一次攻击是在停火生效前 10 分钟。真主党高级官员比拉尔·拉基斯在停火开始前告诉 NBC 新闻，停火是 “必要的、迫切需要的，并且是所有人共同的要求”，但表示该组织不会遵从以色列要求其解除武装的要求，“除非在与更广泛的国家安全愿景相关的框架内”。</p>
</div><h2>Nuclear ambitions a sticking point</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>核野心成为谈判障碍</h2>
</div><p>Teheran’s nuclear ambitions were a sticking point at talks in Islamabad last weekend, where the US proposed a 20-year suspension of all nuclear activity by Iran. Teheran suggested a halt of three to five years, according to people familiar with the proposals. Trump on Thursday said Iran had offered not to possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years. Iran has demanded that international sanctions be lifted and Washington has pressed for any highly enriched uranium to be removed from Iran. Two Iranian sources said there were signs of a compromise on the highly enriched uranium stockpile, with Teheran considering shipping part of it out of the country. REUTERS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德黑兰的核野心在上周末伊斯兰堡的谈判中成为了一个障碍，美国提议伊朗暂停所有核活动 20 年。德黑兰则建议暂停三到五年，根据熟悉提案的人士的说法。特朗普在周四表示，伊朗已提出不拥有核武器超过 20 年的承诺。伊朗要求解除国际制裁，而华盛顿则要求将任何高度浓缩铀从伊朗移除。两名伊朗消息人士表示，关于高度浓缩铀库存的妥协迹象显现，德黑兰正在考虑将部分库存运出国境。路透社</p>
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特朗普表示，美国与伊朗 “非常接近” 达成协议；双方可能会在周末会面