<ul>
<li>伊朗 reportedly 再次关闭霍尔木兹海峡，威胁周五的走势</li>
<li>USD/JPY 仍在跟踪原油走势</li>
<li>周五的回调在关键支撑附近被买入</li>
<li>160.46 的三月高点再次受到关注</li>
<li>数据较少的一周，头条新闻最为重要</li>
</ul>
<h2>USD/JPY 展望摘要</h2>
<p>较低的能源价格和日本银行持续干预的威胁确保了 USD/JPY 上周保持在近期高点之下。但在主要交叉货币中情况有所不同，由于日本银行本月加息的可能性降低，日元对欧元、英镑和澳元贬值至新低。然而，自上周五收盘以来，霍尔木兹海峡出现了新的地缘政治紧张迹象，且 USD/JPY 处于暗示最终恢复之前看涨趋势的结构中，交易者应警惕进入新交易周时可能出现的上涨压力。</p>
<h2>USD/JPY 仍然是能源交易</h2>
<p>日本作为主要的净能源进口国，与美国形成鲜明对比，仍然是当前 USD/JPY 走势的主要驱动因素。如下面的相关矩阵所示，上周与布伦特和 WTI 期货的正相关关系分别保持在 0.85 和 0.95 的极端水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094010-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="699" height="388" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094010-1.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>虽然 USD/JPY 在过去一周也与美国两年和十年期收益率差异显示出强相关性，但这并不是主要驱动因素，这也反映出美国利率前景受到能源价格波动的严重影响。这可以从下面的五分钟逐笔图表中看到，该图表跟踪了过去两周 USD/JPY（黑色）与 WTI 原油期货（蓝色）和美国两年期收益率（红色）的走势。它们本质上是同一交易，强调了霍尔木兹海峡的发展对市场表现的影响。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094146-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1001" height="637" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094146-2.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>因此，尽管 USD/JPY 与风险偏好的历史正相关关系，但它仍然与 S&amp;P 500 期货等资产保持相对强的负相关关系，并且与美国股票或债券市场的隐含波动率指标没有显著的负相关关系。</p>
<p>忘掉风险偏好，忘掉利率差异。对 USD/JPY 来说，最重要的是原油价格的走势。</p>
<h2>霍尔木兹海峡风险在周末回归</h2>
<p>周五收盘时的情绪改善在周末受到打击，多个发展迹象表明中东地区的紧张局势再次升级。伊朗 reportedly 重新对霍尔木兹海峡的船舶交通实施限制，扭转了商业流动可能正常化的短暂乐观情绪，同时也有报道称在该水道内外运营的油轮发生了攻击事件。</p>
<p>与此同时，以色列与黎巴嫩之间的新冲突可能会破坏现有的停火协议，并重新引发对更广泛地区冲突的担忧。加剧不安的是，如果谈判失败或当前安排崩溃，可能会有新的美国轰炸的猜测，这直接挑战了推动上周末原油价格急剧下跌的降级叙事。</p>
<p>显然，这是一个负面发展，如果持续到周一开盘，可能会导致周五能源价格下跌的一大部分被逆转。根据上述相关性分析，这将为 USD/JPY 带来即时的上涨风险。</p>
<p>由于市场仍然关注中东的发展，而本周的日历缺乏真正的美国顶级数据发布，加上在四月 FOMC 会议前的黑暗期内没有美联储对货币政策的评论，未来几天的事件风险似乎对 USD/JPY 的影响较小。</p>
<h2>数据风险在地缘政治面前黯然失色</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094218-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1424" height="1176" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094218-3.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>周二发布的三月零售销售数据将提供一些关于消费者在伊朗战争的第一个完整月中如何应对飙升的汽油和柴油价格的见解，使其成为本周的头条新闻，因为消费在美国经济中占据了绝大部分。预计名义销售将增长 1.3%，但更具指导性的是剔除能源的指标。</p>
<p>除了这一发布，日历基本上是空白的，闪电 PMI 和失业救济申请是唯一值得一提的其他数据。20 年期国债拍卖可能会吸引一些关注，但这是市场参与者传统上不喜欢的期限，往往会带来头条新闻，但对更广泛的国债需求信号较少。</p>
<p>在日本，四月的闪电 PMI 报告将提供一些关于伊朗战争对经济影响的感觉，但历史上很少对市场产生影响。周五在亚洲发布的三月国家通胀报告同样可能适用，因为它在几周前发布的东京 CPI 报告中基本上被取代。</p>
<h2>牛旗形态保持上涨偏好</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094425-4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1001" height="637" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094425-4.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>USD/JPY 继续在 160 以下缓慢下行，尽管从近期价格走势来看，买家在出现显著回调时仍愿意介入。虽然这不是教科书式的例子，但这使得该货币对在一个类似牛旗的结构中交易，这是一种扩展模式，警告最终恢复之前看涨趋势的风险。</p>
<p>周五的蜡烛图可能特别具有指导意义，新的多周低点的回撤遭遇了一波买盘，恰逢旗形支撑与 50 日移动平均线的交汇，尽管能源市场出现了大幅亏损，但该会话却出现了显著的反转。这表明，美元/日元对能源价格下行波动的敏感性目前受到限制，帮助该货币对在近期高点下方保持支撑，尽管面临日本央行的干预风险，以及对美国与伊朗之间最终达成持久和平协议的持续乐观情绪。</p>
<p>相对强弱指数（RSI）（14）和移动平均收敛发散指标（MACD）在方向风险方面的信息大致中性，前者继续在 50 水平附近下滑，而后者在跌破信号线后逐渐回落至盈亏平衡点。尽管过去一个月出现了逐渐的下行趋势，但仍然感觉短期之外的风险偏向上行。</p>
<p>在当前水平之上，159.30 在最近几周既充当了支撑又充当了阻力，使其成为一个值得关注的水平，紧接着是现在略高于的旗形阻力。如果突破并收盘在后者之上，可能会激励新的看涨兴趣，最初目标是重新测试 3 月份创下的年内高点 160.46。如果这一点被干净突破，牛市的下一个上行目标将是 2024 年的高点 161.95，这是与之前日本央行干预事件相关的水平。</p>
<p>在下行方面，50 日移动平均线、3 月 19 日的低点 157.52 和旗形支撑的交汇处为基于当前价格走势的多头提供了一个吸引人的入场区。如果该区域失守，100 日移动平均线以及 156.53 和 155.64 的次要支撑将是评估短期目标或交易设置时需要关注的水平。</p>

西方石油

2 倍做空日圓 ETF - ProShares

<p>美元/日元的前景受到霍尔木兹海峡重新出现的地缘政治紧张局势的影响，伊朗 reportedly 再次限制船只通行。这可能导致美元/日元的看涨趋势重新恢复，该货币对仍与能源价格密切相关。尽管本周美国没有重要的数据发布，但市场关注中东的发展，这可能会逆转近期能源价格的下跌，并为美元/日元带来上行风险。值得关注的关键数据包括美国零售销售和日本的初值 PMI 报告，尽管它们可能对市场的影响有限</p>

<ul>
<li>Iran reportedly shuts Hormuz again, threatening Friday’s moves</li>
<li>USD/JPY still tracking crude moves</li>
<li>Friday dip bought near key support</li>
<li>160.46 March high back in focus</li>
<li>Light data week, headlines matter most</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>伊朗 reportedly 再次关闭霍尔木兹海峡，威胁周五的走势</li>
<li>USD/JPY 仍在跟踪原油走势</li>
<li>周五的回调在关键支撑附近被买入</li>
<li>160.46 的三月高点再次受到关注</li>
<li>数据较少的一周，头条新闻最为重要</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>USD/JPY Outlook Summary</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>USD/JPY 展望摘要</h2>
</div><p>Lower energy prices and the ongoing threat of intervention from the Bank of Japan ensured USD/JPY remained capped beneath recent highs last week. But against the major crosses it was a different story, with diminishing probability of a rate hike from the BoJ later this month seeing the yen weaken to fresh lows against the euro, pound and Aussie. However, with signs of renewed geopolitical tension emerging in the Strait of Hormuz since Friday's close, and with USD/JPY sitting within a structure that hints at an eventual resumption of the prior bullish trend, traders should be alert to the risk of renewed upside pressure as we enter the new trading week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>较低的能源价格和日本银行持续干预的威胁确保了 USD/JPY 上周保持在近期高点之下。但在主要交叉货币中情况有所不同，由于日本银行本月加息的可能性降低，日元对欧元、英镑和澳元贬值至新低。然而，自上周五收盘以来，霍尔木兹海峡出现了新的地缘政治紧张迹象，且 USD/JPY 处于暗示最终恢复之前看涨趋势的结构中，交易者应警惕进入新交易周时可能出现的上涨压力。</p>
</div><h2>USD/JPY remains an energy trade</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>USD/JPY 仍然是能源交易</h2>
</div><p>Japan’s standing as a major net energy importer, the polar opposite of the United States, remains the dominant driver of USD/JPY movements right now. As seen in the correlation matrix below, the positive relationship with Brent and WTI futures remained near extreme levels at 0.85 and 0.95 respectively last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本作为主要的净能源进口国，与美国形成鲜明对比，仍然是当前 USD/JPY 走势的主要驱动因素。如下面的相关矩阵所示，上周与布伦特和 WTI 期货的正相关关系分别保持在 0.85 和 0.95 的极端水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094010-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094010-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>While USD/JPY has also shown a strong correlation with US two and 10-year yield differentials over the past week, rather than being the primary driver, that too reflects how heavily the US interest rate outlook is being influenced by energy price fluctuations. That can be seen in the five-minute tick chart below tracking movements in USD/JPY (black) against WTI crude futures (blue) and US two-year yields (red) over the past fortnight. They are essentially the same trade, underlining how influential developments in the Strait of Hormuz remain when it comes to market performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 USD/JPY 在过去一周也与美国两年和十年期收益率差异显示出强相关性，但这并不是主要驱动因素，这也反映出美国利率前景受到能源价格波动的严重影响。这可以从下面的五分钟逐笔图表中看到，该图表跟踪了过去两周 USD/JPY（黑色）与 WTI 原油期货（蓝色）和美国两年期收益率（红色）的走势。它们本质上是同一交易，强调了霍尔木兹海峡的发展对市场表现的影响。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094146-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094146-2.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>As such, despite its historical positive relationship with risk appetite, USD/JPY continues to trade with a reasonably strong inverse relationship with the likes of S&amp;P 500 futures, and has seen no meaningful inverse correlation with either US stock or bond market implied volatility measures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，尽管 USD/JPY 与风险偏好的历史正相关关系，但它仍然与 S&amp;P 500 期货等资产保持相对强的负相关关系，并且与美国股票或债券市场的隐含波动率指标没有显著的负相关关系。</p>
</div><p>Forget risk appetite, forget rate differentials. What matters most to USD/JPY right now is where the crude price is heading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>忘掉风险偏好，忘掉利率差异。对 USD/JPY 来说，最重要的是原油价格的走势。</p>
</div><h2>Hormuz risks return over weekend</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>霍尔木兹海峡风险在周末回归</h2>
</div><p>The improvement in sentiment seen into Friday’s close has taken a hit over the weekend, with several developments pointing to renewed tension across the Middle East. Iran reportedly reimposed restrictions on vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, reversing the brief optimism that commercial flows may normalise, while there were also reports of attacks involving tankers operating in and around the waterway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五收盘时的情绪改善在周末受到打击，多个发展迹象表明中东地区的紧张局势再次升级。伊朗 reportedly 重新对霍尔木兹海峡的船舶交通实施限制，扭转了商业流动可能正常化的短暂乐观情绪，同时也有报道称在该水道内外运营的油轮发生了攻击事件。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, fresh clashes between Israel and Lebanon risk undermining the existing ceasefire agreement and reviving fears of a broader regional conflict. Adding to the unease, there has also been speculation that renewed US bombing could follow if negotiations fail or current arrangements break down, directly challenges the de-escalation narrative that drove the sharp fall in crude prices at the end of last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，以色列与黎巴嫩之间的新冲突可能会破坏现有的停火协议，并重新引发对更广泛地区冲突的担忧。加剧不安的是，如果谈判失败或当前安排崩溃，可能会有新的美国轰炸的猜测，这直接挑战了推动上周末原油价格急剧下跌的降级叙事。</p>
</div><p>Clearly, this is a negative development that, if maintained into Monday’s open, could see a significant chunk of Friday’s energy price declines reversed. Based on the correlation analysis above, that would create immediate upside risks for USD/JPY.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>显然，这是一个负面发展，如果持续到周一开盘，可能会导致周五能源价格下跌的一大部分被逆转。根据上述相关性分析，这将为 USD/JPY 带来即时的上涨风险。</p>
</div><p>With markets still fixated on developments in the Middle East and this week’s calendar lacking genuine top-tier US data releases, along with no Fed commentary on monetary policy as the blackout period begins ahead of the April FOMC meeting, scheduled event risk looks a distant secondary driver for USD/JPY in the days ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于市场仍然关注中东的发展，而本周的日历缺乏真正的美国顶级数据发布，加上在四月 FOMC 会议前的黑暗期内没有美联储对货币政策的评论，未来几天的事件风险似乎对 USD/JPY 的影响较小。</p>
</div><h2>Data risk fades behind geopolitics</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>数据风险在地缘政治面前黯然失色</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094218-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094218-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Retail sales data for March released Tuesday will provide some insight into how consumers responded to surging gasoline and diesel prices during the first full month of the Iran war, making it the headline act for the week given consumption is by far the largest part of the broader US economy. A 1.3% increase in nominal sales is forecast, but what will be far more instructive is the ex-energy measure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二发布的三月零售销售数据将提供一些关于消费者在伊朗战争的第一个完整月中如何应对飙升的汽油和柴油价格的见解，使其成为本周的头条新闻，因为消费在美国经济中占据了绝大部分。预计名义销售将增长 1.3%，但更具指导性的是剔除能源的指标。</p>
</div><p>Outside that release, the calendar is essentially bare, with flash PMIs and jobless claims the only other data worth mentioning. The 20-year Treasury bond auction may attract some eyeballs, but it is a tenor that market participants have traditionally disliked, making it an event that often delivers headlines but far less signal on broader Treasury demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了这一发布，日历基本上是空白的，闪电 PMI 和失业救济申请是唯一值得一提的其他数据。20 年期国债拍卖可能会吸引一些关注，但这是市场参与者传统上不喜欢的期限，往往会带来头条新闻，但对更广泛的国债需求信号较少。</p>
</div><p>In Japan, the flash PMI reports for April will provide some sense of the impact of the Iran war on the economy, but historically rarely move markets. The same likely applies to the national inflation report for March due Friday in Asia, given it has largely been superseded by the Tokyo CPI release published several weeks earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在日本，四月的闪电 PMI 报告将提供一些关于伊朗战争对经济影响的感觉，但历史上很少对市场产生影响。周五在亚洲发布的三月国家通胀报告同样可能适用，因为它在几周前发布的东京 CPI 报告中基本上被取代。</p>
</div><h2>Bull flag keeps upside bias alive</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>牛旗形态保持上涨偏好</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094425-4.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260419094425-4.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>USD/JPY continues to grind lower beneath 160, although it is obvious from the recent price action that buyers remain willing to step in on meaningful dips when they occur. While not a textbook example, that leaves the pair trading in a structure resembling a bull flag, an extension pattern that warns of the risk of an eventual resumption of the prior bullish trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>USD/JPY 继续在 160 以下缓慢下行，尽管从近期价格走势来看，买家在出现显著回调时仍愿意介入。虽然这不是教科书式的例子，但这使得该货币对在一个类似牛旗的结构中交易，这是一种扩展模式，警告最终恢复之前看涨趋势的风险。</p>
</div><p>Friday’s candle may prove particularly instructive, with a retracement to fresh multi-week lows met by a wall of buying ahead of the intersection of flag support and the 50-day moving average, delivering a sizeable reversal for the session despite steep losses in energy markets. It gives the sense that USD/JPY’s sensitivity to downside moves in energy prices is limited right now, helping keep the pair supported just beneath recent highs even with intervention risk from the BoJ and persistent optimism that an eventual lasting peace agreement between the US and Iran will be reached.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五的蜡烛图可能特别具有指导意义，新的多周低点的回撤遭遇了一波买盘，恰逢旗形支撑与 50 日移动平均线的交汇，尽管能源市场出现了大幅亏损，但该会话却出现了显著的反转。这表明，美元/日元对能源价格下行波动的敏感性目前受到限制，帮助该货币对在近期高点下方保持支撑，尽管面临日本央行的干预风险，以及对美国与伊朗之间最终达成持久和平协议的持续乐观情绪。</p>
</div><p>The message from RSI (14) and MACD is largely neutral when it comes to directional risks, with the former continuing to drift lower around the 50 level while the latter eases back towards breakeven after crossing below the signal line. Even with the gradual downtrend seen over the past month, it still feels like risks beyond the short term remain skewed higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相对强弱指数（RSI）（14）和移动平均收敛发散指标（MACD）在方向风险方面的信息大致中性，前者继续在 50 水平附近下滑，而后者在跌破信号线后逐渐回落至盈亏平衡点。尽管过去一个月出现了逐渐的下行趋势，但仍然感觉短期之外的风险偏向上行。</p>
</div><p>Above current levels, 159.30 has acted as both support and resistance over recent weeks, making it a level of note before flag resistance which now sits marginally overhead. A break and close above the latter may encourage fresh bullish interest, initially targeting a retest of the year-to-date high of 160.46 set in March. If that were broken cleanly, the next topside target for bulls would be the 2024 high of 161.95, a level associated with a prior BoJ intervention episode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在当前水平之上，159.30 在最近几周既充当了支撑又充当了阻力，使其成为一个值得关注的水平，紧接着是现在略高于的旗形阻力。如果突破并收盘在后者之上，可能会激励新的看涨兴趣，最初目标是重新测试 3 月份创下的年内高点 160.46。如果这一点被干净突破，牛市的下一个上行目标将是 2024 年的高点 161.95，这是与之前日本央行干预事件相关的水平。</p>
</div><p>On the downside, the intersection of the 50-day moving average, the March 19 low of 157.52 and flag support provides an appealing entry zone for longs based on the prevailing price action. If that area were to give way, the 100-day moving average, along with minor supports at 156.53 and 155.64, are the levels to watch when assessing short targets or trade setups.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下行方面，50 日移动平均线、3 月 19 日的低点 157.52 和旗形支撑的交汇处为基于当前价格走势的多头提供了一个吸引人的入场区。如果该区域失守，100 日移动平均线以及 156.53 和 155.64 的次要支撑将是评估短期目标或交易设置时需要关注的水平。</p>
</div>

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: Hormuz risks may reignite rally

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