<h2>关键要点</h2>
<ul>
<li>在伊朗战争之后，包括摩根大通和富国银行在内的主要华尔街公司大幅下调了他们的标普 500 价格目标——但历史表明，这些预测往往不准确。</li>
<li>在过去六年中，有五年华尔街显著低估了市场的实际收盘点位，最高差距达到 28%。</li>
<li>尽管全球经济面临真实风险，但坚持下去的投资者通常会获得更好的回报——从长远来看，他们总是如此。</li>
<li>我们更看好的 10 只股票 ›</li>
</ul>
<p>尽管市场在最近几周发生了逆转，但标普 500（SNPINDEX: ^GSPC）在年末将会落在哪里仍然有待观察。</p>
<p>华尔街的表现参差不齐，但在伊朗战争之后，许多华尔街公司纷纷下调价格目标。摩根大通下调了预测，称冲突意味着 “更受限” 的上涨空间。富国银行在几天后跟进，将目标从 7,800 下调至 7,300，其他几家公司也降低了预期。</p>
<p><em><strong>人工智能会创造出世界上第一位万亿富翁吗？</strong> 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知的公司报告，该公司被称为 “不可或缺的垄断”，提供英伟达和英特尔都需要的关键技术。继续 »</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2NTgyMS9pbnZlc3RpbmdfbWFya2V0cy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2NTgyMS9pbnZlc3RpbmdfbWFya2V0cy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>考虑到油价高企——其影响才刚刚开始显现——以及消费者信心创下历史新低，容易相信市场今年会表现不佳。</p>
<p>但历史给那些过于相信华尔街目标的投资者上了一课。让我们看看这些预测的准确性如何，以及出现了哪些模式。</p>
<h2>华尔街的预测记录并不理想</h2>
<p>以下是记录：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>年份</th>
<th>共识目标</th>
<th>实际年末收盘</th>
<th>差异</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>~3,300</td>
<td>3,756</td>
<td>14%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>~4,100</td>
<td>4,766</td>
<td>16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>~4,950</td>
<td>3,840</td>
<td>(22%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>~4,050</td>
<td>4,770</td>
<td>18%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>~4,720</td>
<td>5,881</td>
<td>25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025</td>
<td>~6,600</td>
<td>6,846</td>
<td>4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：macrotrends.net, Avantis Investors。</p>
<p>这个模式非常明显：在过去六年中，华尔街显著低估了市场的实际收盘点位——在某些情况下差距接近 30%。唯一的例外是 2022 年，当年由于利率迅速上升导致的熊市几乎让所有人都感到意外。</p>
<p>因此，通常情况下，华尔街倾向于低估。这一点在你看到另一次下调时值得铭记。</p>
<h2>为什么 2026 年可能会有所不同</h2>
<p>2026 年的局势与 2025 年 4 月相似，当时市场对特朗普政府的 大规模关税 做出了反应。这些关税相对较快地被大幅削减，市场下跌也很短暂。</p>
<p>当然，有很多理由相信这次可能会有所不同。尽管已经取得了一些外交进展，可能很快会达成协议，但霍尔木兹海峡的石油和天然气流动可能会在未来几个月甚至更长时间内受到影响。该地区的关键基础设施已经被摧毁，即使达成和平协议，运输费用在一段时间内也可能会居高不下。运营商将对重新升级保持警惕。</p>
<p>如果未能达成协议，水道关闭数月，全球经济衰退将难以避免。</p>
<p>归根结底，你必须对任何预测持谨慎态度，即使它来自华尔街。尽管全球经济面临真实风险，但坚持下去的投资者通常在短期内会获得更好的回报。从长远来看，他们总是如此。</p>
<p>对于我们这些缺乏水晶球的人来说，在市场中的时间 总是胜过市场时机的把握。</p>
<h2>你现在应该购买标普 500 指数的股票吗？</h2>
<p>在你购买标普 500 指数的股票之前，请考虑以下几点：</p>
<p><em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> 分析团队刚刚确定了他们认为的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong>，而标普 500 指数并不在其中。这 10 只股票在未来几年可能会带来巨额回报。</p>
<p>考虑到 <strong>Netflix</strong> 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日上榜时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1,000 美元，<strong>你现在将拥有 524,786 美元</strong>！* 或者当 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日上榜时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1,000 美元，<strong>你现在将拥有 1,236,406 美元</strong>！*</p>
<p>现在值得注意的是，<em>Stock Advisor</em> 的总平均回报率为 994% — 远超标普 500 的 199%。<strong>不要错过最新的前 10 名股票列表，加入由个人投资者为个人投资者建立的投资社区，获取 <em>Stock Advisor</em> 的最新信息。</strong></p>
<p>查看这 10 只股票 »</p>
<p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回报截至 2026 年 4 月 19 日。</em></p>
<p><em>Johnny Rice 在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。Motley Fool 在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。Motley Fool 有一份 披露政策。</em></p>
<p>此处表达的观点和意见仅代表作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映 Nasdaq, Inc. 的观点。</p>

摩根大通

富国银行

标普 500 指数

金融业 ETF - Vanguard

标普 500 ETF - iShares

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

标普 500 ETF - Vanguard

<p>在伊朗战争的影响下，摩根大通和富国银行等主要华尔街公司已下调了他们对标普 500 指数的价格目标，尽管在过去六年中，他们在五年里历史性地低估了市场表现。这些公司将高企的油价和低迷的消费者信心作为他们谨慎展望的理由。然而，历史表明，保持耐心的投资者通常会获得积极的回报。文章强调了市场预测的不确定性，并建议在解读华尔街预测时保持谨慎</p>

<h2>Key Points</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关键要点</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>In the wake of the Iran war, major Wall Street firms including JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo slashed their S&amp;P 500 price targets -- but history suggests these forecasts often miss the mark.</li>
<li>In five of the past six years, Wall Street significantly underestimated where the market finished, missing by as much as 28% to the upside.</li>
<li>While the risks to the global economy are real, investors who stick it out usually come out ahead -- and in the long run, they always do.</li>
<li>10 stocks we like better than S&amp;P 500 Index ›</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>在伊朗战争之后，包括摩根大通和富国银行在内的主要华尔街公司大幅下调了他们的标普 500 价格目标——但历史表明，这些预测往往不准确。</li>
<li>在过去六年中，有五年华尔街显著低估了市场的实际收盘点位，最高差距达到 28%。</li>
<li>尽管全球经济面临真实风险，但坚持下去的投资者通常会获得更好的回报——从长远来看，他们总是如此。</li>
<li>我们更看好的 10 只股票 ›</li>
</ul>
</div><p>While the market has reversed course in recent weeks, it remains to be seen where the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) will end up at year's end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管市场在最近几周发生了逆转，但标普 500（SNPINDEX: ^GSPC）在年末将会落在哪里仍然有待观察。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street's perfomance has been mixed, but in the wake of the Iran war, much of the Street has been slashing its price targets. <strong>JPMorgan Chase</strong> cut its forecast, saying the conflict means a &#34;more constrained&#34; upside. <strong>Wells Fargo</strong> followed a few days later, trimming its target from 7,800 to 7,300, and several other firms have dialed back expectations as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街的表现参差不齐，但在伊朗战争之后，许多华尔街公司纷纷下调价格目标。摩根大通下调了预测，称冲突意味着 “更受限” 的上涨空间。富国银行在几天后跟进，将目标从 7,800 下调至 7,300，其他几家公司也降低了预期。</p>
</div><p><em><strong>Will AI create the world's first trillionaire?</strong> Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an &#34;Indispensable Monopoly&#34; providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>人工智能会创造出世界上第一位万亿富翁吗？</strong> 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知的公司报告，该公司被称为 “不可或缺的垄断”，提供英伟达和英特尔都需要的关键技术。继续 »</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2NTgyMS9pbnZlc3RpbmdfbWFya2V0cy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="An investor pressing the word invest. " original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F865821%2Finvesting_markets.jpg&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>It makes sense, with oil prices elevated -- the effects of which are only beginning to be felt -- and consumer confidence hitting record lows, it's easy to believe the market will underperform this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到油价高企——其影响才刚刚开始显现——以及消费者信心创下历史新低，容易相信市场今年会表现不佳。</p>
</div><p>But history has a lesson for investors who put too much stock in Wall Street's targets. Let's look at how accurate these forecasts have actually been -- and what patterns emerge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但历史给那些过于相信华尔街目标的投资者上了一课。让我们看看这些预测的准确性如何，以及出现了哪些模式。</p>
</div><h2>Wall Street's forecasting track record isn't great</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>华尔街的预测记录并不理想</h2>
</div><p>Here's the track record:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是记录：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Year</th>
<th>Consensus Target</th>
<th>Actual Year-End Close</th>
<th>Difference</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>~3,300</td>
<td>3,756</td>
<td>14%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>~4,100</td>
<td>4,766</td>
<td>16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>~4,950</td>
<td>3,840</td>
<td>(22%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>~4,050</td>
<td>4,770</td>
<td>18%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>~4,720</td>
<td>5,881</td>
<td>25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025</td>
<td>~6,600</td>
<td>6,846</td>
<td>4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>年份</th>
<th>共识目标</th>
<th>实际年末收盘</th>
<th>差异</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>~3,300</td>
<td>3,756</td>
<td>14%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>~4,100</td>
<td>4,766</td>
<td>16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>~4,950</td>
<td>3,840</td>
<td>(22%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>~4,050</td>
<td>4,770</td>
<td>18%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>~4,720</td>
<td>5,881</td>
<td>25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025</td>
<td>~6,600</td>
<td>6,846</td>
<td>4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data sources: macrotrends.net, Avantis Investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：macrotrends.net, Avantis Investors。</p>
</div><p>The pattern is striking: In five of the past six years, Wall Street significantly underestimated where the market actually finished -- in some cases by nearly 30%. The lone exception was 2022, when a bear market driven by a rapid rise in interest rates caught nearly everyone off guard.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个模式非常明显：在过去六年中，华尔街显著低估了市场的实际收盘点位——在某些情况下差距接近 30%。唯一的例外是 2022 年，当年由于利率迅速上升导致的熊市几乎让所有人都感到意外。</p>
</div><p>So in general, Wall Street tends to miss on the low side. That's worth remembering when you see another downward revision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，通常情况下，华尔街倾向于低估。这一点在你看到另一次下调时值得铭记。</p>
</div><h2>Why 2026 could be different</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么 2026 年可能会有所不同</h2>
</div><p>The 2026 setup has echoes of April 2025, when the market reacted to massive tariffs from the Trump administration. These were significantly scaled back relatively quickly, and the market dip was short-lived.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年的局势与 2025 年 4 月相似，当时市场对特朗普政府的 大规模关税 做出了反应。这些关税相对较快地被大幅削减，市场下跌也很短暂。</p>
</div><p>Of course, there's plenty of reason to believe this might be different. While there has been diplomatic progress and a deal might soon be reached, the flow of oil and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz could be affected for months to come, if not longer. Critical infrastructure throughout the area has already been destroyed, and shipping rates are likely to be elevated for some time, even if a peace deal is reached. Operators will be wary of a re-escalation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，有很多理由相信这次可能会有所不同。尽管已经取得了一些外交进展，可能很快会达成协议，但霍尔木兹海峡的石油和天然气流动可能会在未来几个月甚至更长时间内受到影响。该地区的关键基础设施已经被摧毁，即使达成和平协议，运输费用在一段时间内也可能会居高不下。运营商将对重新升级保持警惕。</p>
</div><p>If a deal isn't reached and the waterway remains shut for months, a global recession would be hard to avoid.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果未能达成协议，水道关闭数月，全球经济衰退将难以避免。</p>
</div><p>At the end of the day, you have to take any prediction with a heavy grain of salt, even if it is from Wall Street. And while the risks to the global economy are very real, investors who stick it out usually come out ahead in the short term. In the long run, they always do.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>归根结底，你必须对任何预测持谨慎态度，即使它来自华尔街。尽管全球经济面临真实风险，但坚持下去的投资者通常在短期内会获得更好的回报。从长远来看，他们总是如此。</p>
</div><p>For those of us who lack a crystal ball, time in the market will always beat timing the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于我们这些缺乏水晶球的人来说，在市场中的时间 总是胜过市场时机的把握。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy stock in S&amp;P 500 Index right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该购买标普 500 指数的股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you buy stock in S&amp;P 500 Index, consider this:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你购买标普 500 指数的股票之前，请考虑以下几点：</p>
</div><p>The <em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> analyst team just identified what they believe are the <strong>10 best stocks</strong> for investors to buy now… and S&amp;P 500 Index wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> 分析团队刚刚确定了他们认为的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong>，而标普 500 指数并不在其中。这 10 只股票在未来几年可能会带来巨额回报。</p>
</div><p>Consider when <strong>Netflix</strong> made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, <strong>you’d have $524,786</strong>!* Or when <strong>Nvidia</strong> made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, <strong>you’d have $1,236,406</strong>!*</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到 <strong>Netflix</strong> 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日上榜时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1,000 美元，<strong>你现在将拥有 524,786 美元</strong>！* 或者当 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日上榜时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1,000 美元，<strong>你现在将拥有 1,236,406 美元</strong>！*</p>
</div><p>Now, it’s worth noting <em>Stock Advisor’s</em> total average return is 994% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 199% for the S&amp;P 500. <strong>Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with <em>Stock Advisor</em>, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在值得注意的是，<em>Stock Advisor</em> 的总平均回报率为 994% — 远超标普 500 的 199%。<strong>不要错过最新的前 10 名股票列表，加入由个人投资者为个人投资者建立的投资社区，获取 <em>Stock Advisor</em> 的最新信息。</strong></p>
</div><p>See the 10 stocks »</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看这 10 只股票 »</p>
</div><p><em>*Stock Advisor returns as of April 19, 2026.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回报截至 2026 年 4 月 19 日。</em></p>
</div><p><em>Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Johnny Rice 在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。Motley Fool 在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。Motley Fool 有一份 披露政策。</em></p>
</div><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此处表达的观点和意见仅代表作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映 Nasdaq, Inc. 的观点。</p>
</div>

Wall Street Is Slashing Stock Market Targets Over the Iran War. They've Been Wrong 5 of the Past 6 Years.

- 多家华尔街公司下调了标普 500 指数的价格目标。  
- 历史数据显示，华尔街预测往往偏低，过去六年五次未能准确估计市场表现。  
- 投资者持久坚持通常能在短期内获利，长期回报更可期。

nasdaq

Defiance Daily Target 2X Long JPM ETF

英伟达

英特尔

奈飞

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.20% DEP SHS REPSTG 1/400TH PFD SER MM

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 6%NON CUM DEP SHS REP 1/400TH PFD SER EE

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. DEP REP 1/400TH (5.75% NON CUM PFD DD)

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.625% DEP SH RE 1/400TH INT NO CU PF LL

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.55% DEP SHS REPSTG 1/400TH PFD SER JJ

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.75 DEP SHS REP 1/400 NCUM PFD SR GG

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NCUM PFD CL A DD

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY 7.5% PERP CONV PRF CLS 'A' SERIES 'L'

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 INT PER PFD SER Y A

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NCUM PFD CL A CC

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY 4.75% DEP SHS 1/1000 NCUM PFD CL A SR Z

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT PFD SR AA (CLA)

NVIDIA Corporation

华尔街因伊朗战争下调股市目标。在过去的 6 年中，他们有 5 次预测错误