<ul>
<li>参议院银行委员会将审查瓦什的美联储改革议程与政策观点</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>周二的会议是确认之路曲折进程中的下一步</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>这位前美联储理事长期拥有批评央行的记录，细节有待梳理</li>
</ul><p>作者：霍华德·施奈德</p><p>华盛顿，4 月 20 日（路透社）——在批评美国央行超过十年后，前美联储理事凯文·瓦什将于周二面临一场 “市场定价时刻”。届时，国会议员们可能会向这位美联储主席提名人施压，要求其详细阐述货币政策与经济理念，并阐明其对根本性变革的呼吁。这场在参议院银行委员会举行的听证会，是这位 56 岁金融家在通往美联储总部华盛顿核心职位道路上的又一步骤，尽管这一路径仍充满争议。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的最后任职日表面上定于 5 月 15 日，但关键共和党人已承诺，除非特朗普政府放弃他们视为毫无根据且威胁美联储独立性的针对鲍威尔及央行的刑事调查，否则将阻止瓦什获得确认。这不仅是货币政策技术层面的关键时刻，更是美联储自二战结束后不久以来面临的最严峻地位挑战。唐纳德·特朗普总统发动了一场积极攻势，旨在加强对央行的影响力，要求实施大幅降息，并在政策制定者未能兑现时加以严厉指责。财政部长斯科特·贝森特也在讨论彻底改革美联储运作或央行与财政部之间达成新的 “协议” 的背景下对美联储提出批评，这两个机构职能不同，若相互交织可能引发人们对将国家日益增长的债务货币化的担忧。“瓦什是否无条件支持美联储独立性，并与政府呼吁大幅降息的立场保持距离？” 德意志银行首席美国经济学家马修·卢齐蒂及其同事上周在听证会预览中写道，“瓦什必须赢得市场对他在实现通胀目标方面的承诺的信任与信誉；这是新任主席必须始终努力获得的资质。在当前背景下，这一要求可能更为迫切。”</p><p>国会议员们有充足的工作素材。通胀率仍高于美联储 2% 的目标；受伊朗战争影响，油价曾飙升，但上周有所回落；特朗普认为央行政策利率应降至 1%；人工智能和加密货币——瓦什作为投资者的两大兴趣领域——可能重塑经济格局。瓦什原本以紧缩货币和通胀鹰派著称，如今却转变为相信由于技术驱动的生产力提升，降低利率是合适的。同样，他长期坚持的关于美联储应缩减其 6.71 万亿美元资产负债表的信念也发生了变化，这一立场是在他担任理事期间，当央行债券持仓最初急剧膨胀时形成的。</p><p>频繁批评者 在过去一年里，当特朗普考虑为鲍威尔寻找继任者时，瓦什多次对美联储发出尖锐批评，呼吁 “政权更迭”，称自己的角色将是 “敲掉一些人的脑袋”，并将鲍威尔的领导描述为 “崩溃”，但未详细说明他将如何改变现状。他的提名标志着多年来的社论、学术讲座和电视采访的顶点，其中许多是通过他在斯坦福大学胡佛研究所担任谢泼德家族杰出经济学访问学者的身份进行的。该研究所被视为分析师中批评美联储的中心，这些分析师认为近期的政策制定时期鲁莽且具有实验性。瓦什在斯坦福大学获得公共政策学士学位，随后毕业于哈佛法学院，他曾表示受到胡佛研究所关键人物如货币学派学者米尔顿·弗里德曼和经济学家约翰·泰勒的影响。两人都推崇受限形式的中央银行制度，弗里德曼的理论植根于货币供应量的增长，而泰勒则以其同名 “泰勒规则” 为基础，将建议利率与美联储的双重目标（通胀与就业）挂钩。瓦什称赞基于规则的决策具有 “理想性”，但并未承诺采用它，这引发了批评者和支持者对该方法能否真正实施的强烈关注。瓦什近期关于利率的观点，以及特朗普对其产生的影响，很可能也是即将举行的听证会的焦点。该听证会将由参议员蒂姆·斯科特主持，他与其它共和党人虽对推进听证会的条件存在分歧，但对瓦什的提名持赞赏态度。</p><h3>瓦什的世界观</h3><p>这位提名人关于利率的观点呼应了前美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘在 20 世纪 90 年代提出的关于生产力对通胀影响的论点，同时也与特朗普呼吁降低利率的立场保持一致。特朗普曾表示，他只提名那些他确信会降低借贷成本的人选。美联储庞大的资产负债表也是一个敏感议题。为应对 2007-2009 年金融危机，资产负债表规模急剧扩大，目前持有大量国债和抵押贷款支持证券已成为美联储控制利率以实现 2% 通胀目标和最大就业目标的常规工具。</p><p>作为二十年前那场危机期间的美联储理事，瓦什反对资产负债表看似无限制的扩张，与其他保守经济学家一样，他认为这会扭曲金融市场。他选择在 2011 年退出央行，而非在政策辩论仍聚焦于帮助经济摆脱危机后疲软增长的过程中，通过投出异议票与当时的美联储主席本·伯南克公开决裂。周二的听证会或许会重演那个时代。瓦什于 2006 年由乔治·W·布什总统任命加入美联储，当时次贷危机全面爆发，演变为全面的金融崩盘，不仅引发了美联储购买债券，还导致了政府对华尔街的大规模救助。像鲍威尔一样，瓦什也是一位律师，并且与家人有着与包括特朗普在内的共和党高层的联系。除学术背景外，他因其华尔街智慧和人际交往能力而备受赞誉。据本周听证会前提交的财务披露文件显示，他协助引导了这些备受争议的金融部门救援行动，随后重返华尔街，担任亿万富翁投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒的顾问，这一职位帮助他积累了超过 1 亿美元的个人财富。“在危机爆发前夕，瓦什先生未能有意义地识别或解决与次级抵押贷款及衍生品相关的风险，” 参议院银行委员会最高民主党人伊丽莎白·沃伦在 4 月 15 日致信鲍威尔的信中写道，信中要求提供详细文件，说明瓦什在危机期间于美联储的角色。</p><p>沃伦写道：“自 2008 年以来，已有充分文件记录表明，瓦什先生在担任美联储理事期间，未能认真对待次贷市场带来的风险，并在安排多次数十亿美元、由纳税人出资向卷入危机的金融机构注资方面发挥了核心作用。”</p>

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<ul>
<li>Senate Banking Committee to scrutinize Warsh’s Fed reform agenda, policy views</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>参议院银行委员会将审查瓦什的美联储改革议程与政策观点</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>Session on Tuesday is next step in tangled path to confirmation</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>周二的会议是确认之路曲折进程中的下一步</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>Former Fed governor has long track record of central bank criticism to unpack, detail</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>这位前美联储理事长期拥有批评央行的记录，细节有待梳理</li>
</ul></div><p>By Howard Schneider</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：霍华德·施奈德</p></div><p>WASHINGTON, April 20 (Reuters) - After more than a decade criticizing the U.S. central bank, former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh faces a mark-to-market moment in a Senate hearing on Tuesday when lawmakers will likely press the Fed chief nominee to flesh out his monetary policy and economic ideas and calls for fundamental change. The hearing before the Senate Banking Committee is the next step in the 56-year-old financier’s still-controversial path to the Fed chief’s corner office in the central bank’s headquarters in Washington. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s last day in the top job is ostensibly May 15, but key Republicans have committed to blocking Warsh’s confirmation until the Trump administration drops a criminal probe of Powell and the central bank that they consider frivolous and a threat to its independence. It’s a critical moment beyond the nuts and bolts of monetary policy, as the Fed faces the most intense challenges to its standing since the years immediately following World War Two. President Donald Trump has waged an aggressive campaign to gain more influence over the central bank, demanding that it push through big interest rate cuts and castigating policymakers when they failed to deliver. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also has been critical of the Fed amid discussion about overhauling its operations or striking a new “accord” between the central bank and the Treasury, agencies with distinct roles whose intermingling could raise concerns about efforts to monetize the country’s mounting debt. “Does Warsh voice unconditional support for Fed independence and distance himself from the administration’s call for steep rate cuts?” Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti and his colleagues wrote last week in a preview of the hearing. “Warsh will have to earn market trust and credibility around his commitment to achieving the inflation target; bona fides that always need to be earned by an incoming chair. The requirement could be more acute in the current context.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华盛顿，4 月 20 日（路透社）——在批评美国央行超过十年后，前美联储理事凯文·瓦什将于周二面临一场 “市场定价时刻”。届时，国会议员们可能会向这位美联储主席提名人施压，要求其详细阐述货币政策与经济理念，并阐明其对根本性变革的呼吁。这场在参议院银行委员会举行的听证会，是这位 56 岁金融家在通往美联储总部华盛顿核心职位道路上的又一步骤，尽管这一路径仍充满争议。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的最后任职日表面上定于 5 月 15 日，但关键共和党人已承诺，除非特朗普政府放弃他们视为毫无根据且威胁美联储独立性的针对鲍威尔及央行的刑事调查，否则将阻止瓦什获得确认。这不仅是货币政策技术层面的关键时刻，更是美联储自二战结束后不久以来面临的最严峻地位挑战。唐纳德·特朗普总统发动了一场积极攻势，旨在加强对央行的影响力，要求实施大幅降息，并在政策制定者未能兑现时加以严厉指责。财政部长斯科特·贝森特也在讨论彻底改革美联储运作或央行与财政部之间达成新的 “协议” 的背景下对美联储提出批评，这两个机构职能不同，若相互交织可能引发人们对将国家日益增长的债务货币化的担忧。“瓦什是否无条件支持美联储独立性，并与政府呼吁大幅降息的立场保持距离？” 德意志银行首席美国经济学家马修·卢齐蒂及其同事上周在听证会预览中写道，“瓦什必须赢得市场对他在实现通胀目标方面的承诺的信任与信誉；这是新任主席必须始终努力获得的资质。在当前背景下，这一要求可能更为迫切。”</p></div><p>There’s plenty for lawmakers to work with. Inflation is stuck above the Fed’s 2% target; oil prices have skyrocketed thanks to the Iran war, though they receded last week; Trump thinks the central bank’s policy rate should be cut to 1%; artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies, two of Warsh’s interests as an investor, could reshape the economy. Warsh’s tight-money, inflation-hawk reputation has morphed into a belief that lower interest rates are appropriate because of tech-driven productivity. The same thing has happened to a long-held conviction the Fed should shrink its $6.71 trillion balance sheet, a position he developed after serving as a governor when the central bank’s bond holdings initially exploded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国会议员们有充足的工作素材。通胀率仍高于美联储 2% 的目标；受伊朗战争影响，油价曾飙升，但上周有所回落；特朗普认为央行政策利率应降至 1%；人工智能和加密货币——瓦什作为投资者的两大兴趣领域——可能重塑经济格局。瓦什原本以紧缩货币和通胀鹰派著称，如今却转变为相信由于技术驱动的生产力提升，降低利率是合适的。同样，他长期坚持的关于美联储应缩减其 6.71 万亿美元资产负债表的信念也发生了变化，这一立场是在他担任理事期间，当央行债券持仓最初急剧膨胀时形成的。</p></div><p>FREQUENT CRITIC As Trump mulled naming a successor for Powell over the past year, Warsh lobbed sharp criticisms at the Fed, calling for “regime change,” saying his role would be “knocking some heads,” and labeling Powell’s leadership “broken,” but without detailing how he would change things. His nomination caps years of op-eds, academic lectures, and television interviews, many through his position as the Shepard Family Distinguished Visiting Fellow in Economics at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, a center of Fed criticism among analysts who regard the recent era of policymaking as recklessly experimental. Warsh, who earned a bachelor’s degree in public policy from Stanford before graduating from Harvard Law School, has spoken of being influenced by key Hoover figures including monetarist scholar Milton Friedman and economist John Taylor. Both championed constrained forms of central banking, Friedman’s rooted in growth of the money supply, Taylor’s in an eponymous “Taylor Rule” relating recommended interest rates to the Fed’s dual inflation and employment goals. Warsh has lauded rule-based policymaking as “aspirational” while stopping short of committing to use it, raising questions that both critics and advocates of such an approach will be keen to understand. Warsh’s recent views about interest rates, and how Trump has influenced them, are also likely to be a focus of the upcoming hearing, which will be chaired by Senator Tim Scott, who, along with other Republican lawmakers, has been complimentary of Warsh’s nomination despite the divide over the conditions for proceeding with it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>频繁批评者 在过去一年里，当特朗普考虑为鲍威尔寻找继任者时，瓦什多次对美联储发出尖锐批评，呼吁 “政权更迭”，称自己的角色将是 “敲掉一些人的脑袋”，并将鲍威尔的领导描述为 “崩溃”，但未详细说明他将如何改变现状。他的提名标志着多年来的社论、学术讲座和电视采访的顶点，其中许多是通过他在斯坦福大学胡佛研究所担任谢泼德家族杰出经济学访问学者的身份进行的。该研究所被视为分析师中批评美联储的中心，这些分析师认为近期的政策制定时期鲁莽且具有实验性。瓦什在斯坦福大学获得公共政策学士学位，随后毕业于哈佛法学院，他曾表示受到胡佛研究所关键人物如货币学派学者米尔顿·弗里德曼和经济学家约翰·泰勒的影响。两人都推崇受限形式的中央银行制度，弗里德曼的理论植根于货币供应量的增长，而泰勒则以其同名 “泰勒规则” 为基础，将建议利率与美联储的双重目标（通胀与就业）挂钩。瓦什称赞基于规则的决策具有 “理想性”，但并未承诺采用它，这引发了批评者和支持者对该方法能否真正实施的强烈关注。瓦什近期关于利率的观点，以及特朗普对其产生的影响，很可能也是即将举行的听证会的焦点。该听证会将由参议员蒂姆·斯科特主持，他与其它共和党人虽对推进听证会的条件存在分歧，但对瓦什的提名持赞赏态度。</p></div><h3>WARSH’S WORLD</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>瓦什的世界观</h3></div><p>The nominee’s ideas about interest rates echo arguments former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan made during the 1990s about the impact of productivity on inflation, while also putting Warsh in sync with Trump’s call for lower rates. Trump said he would only nominate someone he was confident would lower borrowing costs. The Fed’s massive balance sheet also is a delicate issue. Expanded dramatically to fight the 2007-2009 financial crisis, large holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities are now a staple tool for controlling interest rates for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation and maximum employment goals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这位提名人关于利率的观点呼应了前美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘在 20 世纪 90 年代提出的关于生产力对通胀影响的论点，同时也与特朗普呼吁降低利率的立场保持一致。特朗普曾表示，他只提名那些他确信会降低借贷成本的人选。美联储庞大的资产负债表也是一个敏感议题。为应对 2007-2009 年金融危机，资产负债表规模急剧扩大，目前持有大量国债和抵押贷款支持证券已成为美联储控制利率以实现 2% 通胀目标和最大就业目标的常规工具。</p></div><p>A Fed governor during that crisis two decades ago, Warsh opposed the balance sheet’s seemingly open-ended growth alongside other conservative economists who felt it distorted financial markets. He chose to exit the central bank in 2011 rather than publicly break with then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke through dissenting votes during policy debates still focused on lifting the economy out of its post-crisis sluggish growth. The hearing on Tuesday could replay that era. Warsh joined the Fed in 2006, appointed by President George W. Bush, and was a key Bernanke adviser as a subprime housing crisis exploded into a full-blown financial meltdown that triggered not just Fed bond purchases but massive government bailouts for Wall Street. A lawyer like Powell, with family ties to a Republican hierarchy that came to include Trump, Warsh has been lauded as much for his Wall Street smarts and people skills as his academic background. He helped guide those controversial financial sector rescues and then returned to Wall Street to work as an adviser to billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, a position that helped Warsh amass a personal fortune in excess of $100 million, according to financial disclosures filed before this week’s hearing. “In the lead-up to the crisis, Mr. Warsh failed to meaningfully identify or address the risks associated with subprime mortgages and derivatives,” Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Senate Banking Committee’s top Democrat, wrote in an April 15 letter to Powell demanding documents detailing Warsh’s role at the Fed during the crisis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为二十年前那场危机期间的美联储理事，瓦什反对资产负债表看似无限制的扩张，与其他保守经济学家一样，他认为这会扭曲金融市场。他选择在 2011 年退出央行，而非在政策辩论仍聚焦于帮助经济摆脱危机后疲软增长的过程中，通过投出异议票与当时的美联储主席本·伯南克公开决裂。周二的听证会或许会重演那个时代。瓦什于 2006 年由乔治·W·布什总统任命加入美联储，当时次贷危机全面爆发，演变为全面的金融崩盘，不仅引发了美联储购买债券，还导致了政府对华尔街的大规模救助。像鲍威尔一样，瓦什也是一位律师，并且与家人有着与包括特朗普在内的共和党高层的联系。除学术背景外，他因其华尔街智慧和人际交往能力而备受赞誉。据本周听证会前提交的财务披露文件显示，他协助引导了这些备受争议的金融部门救援行动，随后重返华尔街，担任亿万富翁投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒的顾问，这一职位帮助他积累了超过 1 亿美元的个人财富。“在危机爆发前夕，瓦什先生未能有意义地识别或解决与次级抵押贷款及衍生品相关的风险，” 参议院银行委员会最高民主党人伊丽莎白·沃伦在 4 月 15 日致信鲍威尔的信中写道，信中要求提供详细文件，说明瓦什在危机期间于美联储的角色。</p></div><p>“Since 2008, it has been well-documented that Mr. Warsh, in his role as (a) Fed Governor, failed to take seriously the risks posed by the subprime mortgage market and played a central role in helping to arrange numerous multibillion-dollar, taxpayer-funded capital infusions to financial institutions involved in the crisis,” Warren wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦写道：“自 2008 年以来，已有充分文件记录表明，瓦什先生在担任美联储理事期间，未能认真对待次贷市场带来的风险，并在安排多次数十亿美元、由纳税人出资向卷入危机的金融机构注资方面发挥了核心作用。”</p></div>

Fed nominee Warsh prepares for monetary policy road test before Senate panel

- 参议院银行委员会将审查凯文·瓦什的美联储改革议程。  
- 瓦什曾批评美联储，当前被提名为新主席候选人。  
- 听证会将探讨货币政策及其对经济的影响。

美联储提名人瓦什在参议院小组委员会前为货币政策“路测”做准备