<p>特斯拉（TSLA +2.96%）在过去两年中的股市表现有些扑朔迷离。尽管其 Model Y 仍然是全球销量最高的汽车，但总交付量已连续两年下降。与此同时，电动车市场的竞争日益激烈。特斯拉去年失去了全球销量最高电动车公司的地位，近期的行业新产品发布可能进一步侵蚀其市场份额。</p>
<p>考虑到这一切，为什么在过去 24 个月中，特斯拉的股票表现优于大盘呢？部分原因是许多投资者对公司的未来感到兴奋，这远远超出了其核心电动车业务。特斯拉正在努力引领机器人革命。该公司正在全力研发其人形机器人 Optimus。以下是特斯拉在这一领域取得进展时，股票可能飙升的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NjU5MzkvdGVzbGEucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="特斯拉标志" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NjU5MzkvdGVzbGEucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>特斯拉的新纪元</h2>
<p>特斯拉宣布将于今年停产其 Model X 和 Model S，部分原因是为了在其弗里蒙特工厂腾出空间来生产 Optimus 机器人。根据公司首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的说法，他们计划在夏季开始 Optimus 3 的初步生产，并在 2027 年前逐步扩大生产。马斯克还声称，Optimus 3 将是目前最先进的人形机器人。如果 Optimus 3 的表现接近宣传的效果——或许能够接近人类的熟练程度——这将是一个重大突破。原因如下：美国正面临劳动力短缺，医疗等行业受到的影响尤为严重。</p>
<p>即使在短缺之外，尽可能用机器人替代人类工人进入劳动力市场也可能是一次重大转变。毕竟，机器人不需要 401K 和许多人所需的其他费用，而这些费用通常是法律规定的。只要这些机器人的初始成本和维护费用足够低，一些公司可能会选择这种方式，替代许多人工工人。根据一些估计，Optimus 3 的起售价将在 2 万到 3 万美元之间——远低于美国人的年均中位收入。</p>
<p>假设这些机器人可以使用五年，并且每年的费用设定为每个机器人 1.5 万美元，许多公司仍然会节省开支。这可能导致整体成本降低，从而通过更便宜的产品和服务传递给客户。此外，如果对 Optimus 3（以及特斯拉未来版本的机器人）的需求足够高，公司可能会扩大生产能力，最终降低单位生产成本。如果一切顺利，Optimus 将在办公室、仓库和家庭中广受欢迎。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="特斯拉股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<p>特斯拉</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(2.96%) $11.51</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$400.41</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$1.5 万亿</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$391.65 - $409.29</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$222.79 - $498.83</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>13K</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>6300 万</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>18.03%</p>
<p>马斯克认为这可能会重塑经济。他在公司第四季度财报电话会议上表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>我认为，从长远来看，Optimus 将对美国 GDP 产生非常显著的影响。它实际上会显著推动美国 GDP 的增长。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>如果特斯拉能够按照计划在今年取得实质性进展——而 Optimus 3 的全面揭晓受到好评——那么到年底，股票可能会飙升，并在下一个十年内带来卓越的回报，因为马斯克的机器人愿景变为现实。</p>
<h2>这还不是板上钉钉的事</h2>
<p>投资者应该急于购买特斯拉的股票吗？还不急。考虑到公司机器人战略可能面临的风险是很重要的。首先，尽管马斯克可能声称 Optimus 3 是迄今为止最先进的人形机器人，但在我们看到它实际运作之前，接受他的说法并不明智。即使是公司的生产计划，投资者也应保持谨慎。特斯拉有时未能按时完成自己的时间表。其次，可能存在重大监管风险。</p>
<p>一些立法者担心人工智能（AI）对就业市场的影响，并正在提出法案以进行监管。从目前的情况来看，Optimus 3 和其他人形机器人对人类劳动的影响可能远大于当前 AI 版本的影响。因此，我们可以预期会有一些反对声音，而不仅仅来自立法者。即使 Optimus 3 的表现如马斯克所言（再说一次，我们尚不清楚这一点），监管障碍可能会减缓其采用。最后，特斯拉的交易水平暗示其机器人工作将会成功。公司的前瞻市盈率为 185，几乎没有出错的余地。</p>
<p>如果特斯拉能够完美执行，股票可能会有很大的上涨潜力，但也存在显著风险。对于长期风险承受能力强的投资者来说，特斯拉可能是一个买入选择，但风险厌恶者则应远离。</p>

特斯拉

1.25 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Leverage Shares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

TESL

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>尽管交付量下降和电动车市场竞争加剧，特斯拉的股票表现仍然优于市场。公司对其类人机器人 Optimus 的关注可能推动未来的增长。初步生产计划在夏季进行，企业替代人类工人可能带来成本节约。然而，风险包括技术尚未成熟、监管挑战和高股票估值。尽管存在上行潜力，投资者应保持谨慎，尤其是那些厌恶风险的投资者</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>'s ( TSLA +2.96%) performance on the stock market over the past two years is a bit of an enigma. Even as its Model Y remains the single best-selling car in the world, total deliveries have declined for two years straight. Meanwhile, competition is heating up in the electric vehicle market. Tesla lost its spot as the world's top-selling EV company last year, and recent industry launches could further erode its market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉（TSLA +2.96%）在过去两年中的股市表现有些扑朔迷离。尽管其 Model Y 仍然是全球销量最高的汽车，但总交付量已连续两年下降。与此同时，电动车市场的竞争日益激烈。特斯拉去年失去了全球销量最高电动车公司的地位，近期的行业新产品发布可能进一步侵蚀其市场份额。</p>
</div><p>Given all that, why exactly has the stock outperformed broader equities over the past 24 months?Part of the answer is that many investors are excited about the company's future, which goes well beyond its core EV business. Tesla is looking to usher in a robotics revolution. The company is working hard on its humanoid robot, Optimus. Here's why the stock could soar as Tesla makes progress in that department.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这一切，为什么在过去 24 个月中，特斯拉的股票表现优于大盘呢？部分原因是许多投资者对公司的未来感到兴奋，这远远超出了其核心电动车业务。特斯拉正在努力引领机器人革命。该公司正在全力研发其人形机器人 Optimus。以下是特斯拉在这一领域取得进展时，股票可能飙升的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NjU5MzkvdGVzbGEucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA" alt="Tesla logo." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F865939%2Ftesla.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>A new era for Tesla</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的新纪元</h2>
</div><p>Tesla announced it would discontinue its Models X and S this year, partly to make space in its Fremont factory to build its Optimus robots. According to the company's CEO, Elon Musk, they plan to start initial production of Optimus 3 in the summer and ramp things up by 2027. Musk also claims that Optimus 3 will be the most advanced humanoid robot out there. Provided Optimus 3 is nearly as good as advertised -- and perhaps can get close to matching human-level proficiency -- it could be a big deal. Here's why. There is a labor shortage in the U.S., with sectors such as healthcare among the most affected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉宣布将于今年停产其 Model X 和 Model S，部分原因是为了在其弗里蒙特工厂腾出空间来生产 Optimus 机器人。根据公司首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的说法，他们计划在夏季开始 Optimus 3 的初步生产，并在 2027 年前逐步扩大生产。马斯克还声称，Optimus 3 将是目前最先进的人形机器人。如果 Optimus 3 的表现接近宣传的效果——或许能够接近人类的熟练程度——这将是一个重大突破。原因如下：美国正面临劳动力短缺，医疗等行业受到的影响尤为严重。</p>
</div><p>Even beyond the shortages, introducing robots into the workforce to replace human workers whenever possible could be a major shift. After all, robots don't need a 401K and many other costs that people require and are often entitled to by law. Provided the initial cost and maintenance expenses of these robots are low enough, some corporations might choose to go that route and replace many human workers. According to some estimates, Optimus 3's starting price will be in the $20,000 to $30,000 range -- far below the average American's median annual income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在短缺之外，尽可能用机器人替代人类工人进入劳动力市场也可能是一次重大转变。毕竟，机器人不需要 401K 和许多人所需的其他费用，而这些费用通常是法律规定的。只要这些机器人的初始成本和维护费用足够低，一些公司可能会选择这种方式，替代许多人工工人。根据一些估计，Optimus 3 的起售价将在 2 万到 3 万美元之间——远低于美国人的年均中位收入。</p>
</div><p>Assuming these can last five years and even putting annual expenses at $15,000 per year for each, many companies would still be saving money. That could lead to lower overall costs, which might be passed on to customers through cheaper products and services. Further, there is a real possibility that, if demand for Optimus 3 (and future versions of Tesla's robot) is high enough, the company will expand its manufacturing capacity and eventually lower unit production costs. If everything goes well for Tesla, Optimus will be popular in the office, in warehouses, and in the home.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假设这些机器人可以使用五年，并且每年的费用设定为每个机器人 1.5 万美元，许多公司仍然会节省开支。这可能导致整体成本降低，从而通过更便宜的产品和服务传递给客户。此外，如果对 Optimus 3（以及特斯拉未来版本的机器人）的需求足够高，公司可能会扩大生产能力，最终降低单位生产成本。如果一切顺利，Optimus 将在办公室、仓库和家庭中广受欢迎。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Tesla Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FTSLA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
</div><p>Tesla</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(2.96%) $11.51</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(2.96%) $11.51</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$400.41</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$400.41</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$1.5T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$1.5 万亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$391.65 - $409.29</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$391.65 - $409.29</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$222.79 - $498.83</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$222.79 - $498.83</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>13K</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>13K</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>63M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>6300 万</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>18.03%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>18.03%</p>
</div><p>Musk thinks this could reshape the economy. As he said during the company's fourth quarter earnings conference call:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克认为这可能会重塑经济。他在公司第四季度财报电话会议上表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>I think long-term Optimus will have a very significant impact on the US GDP. It will actually move the needle on US GDP significantly.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>我认为，从长远来看，Optimus 将对美国 GDP 产生非常显著的影响。它实际上会显著推动美国 GDP 的增长。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>If Tesla can make meaningful progress this year as planned -- and Optimus 3's full reveal is well-received -- the stock could soar by the end of the year and deliver outstanding returns in the next decade as Musk's robotics vision becomes reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果特斯拉能够按照计划在今年取得实质性进展——而 Optimus 3 的全面揭晓受到好评——那么到年底，股票可能会飙升，并在下一个十年内带来卓越的回报，因为马斯克的机器人愿景变为现实。</p>
</div><h2>It's not a slam dunk yet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这还不是板上钉钉的事</h2>
</div><p>Should investors rush to buy shares of Tesla? Not so fast. It's important to consider the potential risks involved with the company's robotics strategy. First, Musk might claim that Optimus 3 is by far the most advanced humanoid robot, but until we see it in action, it wouldn't be wise to take his word for it. Investors should be cautious even with the company's planned production schedules. Tesla has sometimes failed to meet its own timeline. Second, there could be significant regulatory risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应该急于购买特斯拉的股票吗？还不急。考虑到公司机器人战略可能面临的风险是很重要的。首先，尽管马斯克可能声称 Optimus 3 是迄今为止最先进的人形机器人，但在我们看到它实际运作之前，接受他的说法并不明智。即使是公司的生产计划，投资者也应保持谨慎。特斯拉有时未能按时完成自己的时间表。其次，可能存在重大监管风险。</p>
</div><p>Some lawmakers are worried about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the job market and are introducing bills to track that. By the looks of it, the impact Optimus 3 and other humanoid robots could have on human labor could be far greater than that of current AI iterations. So, we can expect some pushback, and not just from lawmakers. Even if Optimus 3 is as good as Musk claims (and again, we don't know that yet), regulatory roadblocks might slow its adoption. Lastly, Tesla is trading at levels that imply its robotics work will be successful. The company's forward price-to-earnings of 185 leaves no room for error.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些立法者担心人工智能（AI）对就业市场的影响，并正在提出法案以进行监管。从目前的情况来看，Optimus 3 和其他人形机器人对人类劳动的影响可能远大于当前 AI 版本的影响。因此，我们可以预期会有一些反对声音，而不仅仅来自立法者。即使 Optimus 3 的表现如马斯克所言（再说一次，我们尚不清楚这一点），监管障碍可能会减缓其采用。最后，特斯拉的交易水平暗示其机器人工作将会成功。公司的前瞻市盈率为 185，几乎没有出错的余地。</p>
</div><p>The stock could have ample upside potential if it executes flawlessly, but there is also significant risk. Tesla might be a buy for long-term, risk-tolerant investors, but risk-averse people will want to stay away.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果特斯拉能够完美执行，股票可能会有很大的上涨潜力，但也存在显著风险。对于长期风险承受能力强的投资者来说，特斯拉可能是一个买入选择，但风险厌恶者则应远离。</p>
</div>

Why Tesla Stock Could Double as Optimus Reaches Human-Level Proficiency This Year

- 特斯拉在电动车市场面临竞争，交付量连续两年下降。  
- 该公司致力于开发人形机器人 Optimus，预计将影响经济。  
- 尽管前景乐观，投资者需考虑其机器人战略的潜在风险。

为什么特斯拉的股票可能会因为 Optimus 今年达到人类水平的熟练度而翻倍