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<p>特朗普总统决定提供无限期停火，这在金融市场上引发了混乱，分析师们难以预测战争将如何结束。这也表明特朗普越来越陷入困境，并加剧了人们对未来可能出现更糟局面的担忧。</p>
<h2>唐纳德·特朗普认为战争会很短暂</h2>
<p>特朗普决定攻击伊朗是在与本杰明·内塔尼亚胡在危机指挥中心进行紧张会议后做出的。根据《纽约时报》的报道，内塔尼亚胡和摩萨德的戴维·巴尔内亚说服特朗普相信，伊朗在多年中处于最弱状态，攻击将会很短暂。</p>
<p>八周后，危机依然存在，且没有结束的迹象。本周，副总统 JD·范斯、贾里德·库什纳和史蒂夫·维特科夫计划前往巴基斯坦与伊朗进行会谈，这一情况进一步升级。</p>
<p>就在前一天，特朗普曾宣传美国与伊朗正在谈判的潜在协议，指出这将比奥巴马的 JCPOA 更好，后者涉及包括俄罗斯和中国在内的世界大国。</p>
<p>然而，计划中的会谈并未进行，因为伊朗对是否参与保持不确定。最终，美国代表团决定不参加，特朗普引用了伊朗政府内部的分歧。</p>
<p>然而，现实是特朗普迫切希望与伊朗达成协议，而伊朗并不急于结束战争。虽然伊朗并没有发起战争，但它认为以美国的条件结束战争将导致未来几年再次遭到攻击。</p>
<h2>为什么唐纳德·特朗普陷入困境</h2>
<p>特朗普陷入没有好选择的境地有几个原因。</p>
<p>首先，他没有实现开战时设定的任何目标。尽管他多次声明，政权更迭并未发生。相反，他用年轻的穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊取代了 87 岁的哈梅内伊。伊朗革命卫队的机构依然完好无损。</p>
<p>其次，尽管特朗普和内塔尼亚胡摧毁了很多东西，但媒体报道显示，伊朗的武装力量依然强大，约一半的弹道导弹仍然完好无损。</p>
<p>第三，特朗普未能获取他去年轰炸的浓缩铀。上周，他在一份声明中表示，伊朗已同意让美国获取这些铀。</p>
<p>与此同时，特朗普认为会在四周内结束的战争现在已经进入第八周，仍然没有结束的迹象。</p>
<p>在国内，特朗普的情况发生了变化，他一些最忠诚的支持者，如塔克·卡尔森和坎迪斯·欧文斯，开始转向反对他。本周，卡尔森在一份声明中指出，他对特朗普的支持将长期困扰他。</p>
<p>对特朗普来说，最糟糕的是，战争提高了共和党在即将到来的选举中失利的可能性。Polymarket 和 Kashi 的民调显示，民主党将赢得众议院和参议院，这增加了他被弹劾的可能性。</p>
<p>与此同时，特朗普没有好的办法退出战争。他与伊朗签署的任何协议都将比奥巴马谈判的更糟，因为伊朗现在将寻求更多的让步。</p>
<p>此外，如果他决定升级，伊朗有更多的选择来造成最大痛苦。它可能会摧毁包括海水淡化厂在内的沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋等国的民用基础设施。</p>
<p>伊朗还可能摧毁沙特阿拉伯的石油管道，或利用安萨·阿拉关闭红海，这一举动将影响全球 12% 的石油供应。</p>
<p>特朗普也可能决定放弃伊朗，这一举动将使局势比之前更糟，因为后者将完全控制霍尔木兹海峡。</p>
<p>另一个大问题是以色列，可能会推动美国通过发动另一次攻击来参战。这一点很重要，因为以色列和美国在这场战争中的目标不同。特朗普希望达成核协议，而以色列则希望彻底摧毁伊朗以消除威胁。</p>
<p>特朗普总统陷入困境，已无好选择的文章首发于 Invezz</p>

西方石油

和顺石油

<p>特朗普总统的无限期停火引发了金融市场的混乱，增加了对与伊朗长期冲突的担忧。尽管最初预期战争会很短暂，但局势却升级，特朗普面临着谈判可能带来不利条款的压力。他未能实现最初目标，加上国内的不满和潜在的选举后果，使他面临有限的选择。持续的危机对地区稳定构成风险，并可能影响全球石油供应，因为美国和以色列之间的不同目标进一步复杂化了局势</p>

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<p>President Donald Trump’s decision to offer an indefinite ceasefire has created confusion in the financial markets, with analysts struggling to predict how the war might conclude. It also suggests that Trump is increasingly trapped and has heightened fears that the worst may still lie ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普总统决定提供无限期停火，这在金融市场上引发了混乱，分析师们难以预测战争将如何结束。这也表明特朗普越来越陷入困境，并加剧了人们对未来可能出现更糟局面的担忧。</p>
</div><h2>Donald Trump thought the war would be brief</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>唐纳德·特朗普认为战争会很短暂</h2>
</div><p>Trump's decision to attack Iran came after a tense meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu at the Situation Room. According to the New York Times, Bibi and Mossad’s David Barnea convinced Trump that Iran was at its weakest in years and that the attack would be brief.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普决定攻击伊朗是在与本杰明·内塔尼亚胡在危机指挥中心进行紧张会议后做出的。根据《纽约时报》的报道，内塔尼亚胡和摩萨德的戴维·巴尔内亚说服特朗普相信，伊朗在多年中处于最弱状态，攻击将会很短暂。</p>
</div><p>Eight weeks later, the crisis still remains, and there is no end in sight. This situation escalated this week as Vice President JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff planned to travel to Pakistan for talks with Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>八周后，危机依然存在，且没有结束的迹象。本周，副总统 JD·范斯、贾里德·库什纳和史蒂夫·维特科夫计划前往巴基斯坦与伊朗进行会谈，这一情况进一步升级。</p>
</div><p>A day earlier, Trump had touted a potential deal the US was negotiating with Iran, noting that it would be better than Barack Obama’s JCPOA, which involved the biggest world powers, including Russia and China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在前一天，特朗普曾宣传美国与伊朗正在谈判的潜在协议，指出这将比奥巴马的 JCPOA 更好，后者涉及包括俄罗斯和中国在内的世界大国。</p>
</div><p>However, the planned talks did not happen as Iran remained non-committed on whether it would participate in them. In the end, the US delegation decided not to attend, with Trump citing the divisions in the Iranian government.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，计划中的会谈并未进行，因为伊朗对是否参与保持不确定。最终，美国代表团决定不参加，特朗普引用了伊朗政府内部的分歧。</p>
</div><p>The reality, however, is that Trump is desperate to make a deal with Iran, a country that is in no hurry to end the war. While Iran did not start the war, it believes that ending on US terms will lead to another attack in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，现实是特朗普迫切希望与伊朗达成协议，而伊朗并不急于结束战争。虽然伊朗并没有发起战争，但它认为以美国的条件结束战争将导致未来几年再次遭到攻击。</p>
</div><h2>Why Donald Trump is trapped</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么唐纳德·特朗普陷入困境</h2>
</div><p>There are a few reasons why Trump is trapped in a situation with no good options.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普陷入没有好选择的境地有几个原因。</p>
</div><p>First, he has not achieved any goal he had when he started the war. Despite his repeated statements, a regime change has not happened. Instead, he replaced the 87-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei with the younger Mojtaba Khamenei. The IRGC apparatus remains intact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，他没有实现开战时设定的任何目标。尽管他多次声明，政权更迭并未发生。相反，他用年轻的穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊取代了 87 岁的哈梅内伊。伊朗革命卫队的机构依然完好无损。</p>
</div><p>Second, while Trump and Netanyahu have destroyed a lot of things, media reports show that Iran is still armed to the core, with about half of its ballistic missiles still intact</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，尽管特朗普和内塔尼亚胡摧毁了很多东西，但媒体报道显示，伊朗的武装力量依然强大，约一半的弹道导弹仍然完好无损。</p>
</div><p>Third, Trump has been unable to take the enriched uranium he bombed last year. In a statement last week, he said that Iran had agreed to have the US take the uranium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，特朗普未能获取他去年轰炸的浓缩铀。上周，他在一份声明中表示，伊朗已同意让美国获取这些铀。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the war Trump thought would take less than four weeks is now in the eighth week with no end in sight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，特朗普认为会在四周内结束的战争现在已经进入第八周，仍然没有结束的迹象。</p>
</div><p>Domestically, things have changed for Trump, with some of his most loyal supporters like Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens turning against him. In a statement this week, Carlson noted that his support for Trump would haunt him for so long.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在国内，特朗普的情况发生了变化，他一些最忠诚的支持者，如塔克·卡尔森和坎迪斯·欧文斯，开始转向反对他。本周，卡尔森在一份声明中指出，他对特朗普的支持将长期困扰他。</p>
</div><p>The worst part for Trump is that the war has raised the possibility that Republicans will lose the upcoming elections. Polymarket and Kashi polls show that Democrats will win the House and the Senate, raising the possibility that he will be impeached.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对特朗普来说，最糟糕的是，战争提高了共和党在即将到来的选举中失利的可能性。Polymarket 和 Kashi 的民调显示，民主党将赢得众议院和参议院，这增加了他被弹劾的可能性。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, Trump has no good way to exit the war. Any deal he signs with Iran will be worse than what Obama negotiated, as Iran will now seek more concessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，特朗普没有好的办法退出战争。他与伊朗签署的任何协议都将比奥巴马谈判的更糟，因为伊朗现在将寻求更多的让步。</p>
</div><p>Also, if he decides to escalate, Iran has more options to cause maximum pain. It may destroy civilian infrastructure, including desalination plants, in countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，如果他决定升级，伊朗有更多的选择来造成最大痛苦。它可能会摧毁包括海水淡化厂在内的沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋等国的民用基础设施。</p>
</div><p>Iran may also destroy Saudi Arabia’s oil pipeline or use Ansah Allah to shut down the Red Sea, a move that will impact another 12% of global oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗还可能摧毁沙特阿拉伯的石油管道，或利用安萨·阿拉关闭红海，这一举动将影响全球 12% 的石油供应。</p>
</div><p>Trump may as well decide to walk away from Iran, a move that will leave the situation worse than before, as the latter will have full control of the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普也可能决定放弃伊朗，这一举动将使局势比之前更糟，因为后者将完全控制霍尔木兹海峡。</p>
</div><p>Another big issue is Israel, which may push the US to fight by launching another attack. This is important as Israel and the US have different goals in this war. Trump wants a nuclear deal, while Israel wants a complete destruction of Iran to eliminate the threat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个大问题是以色列，可能会推动美国通过发动另一次攻击来参战。这一点很重要，因为以色列和美国在这场战争中的目标不同。特朗普希望达成核协议，而以色列则希望彻底摧毁伊朗以消除威胁。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普总统陷入困境，已无好选择的文章首发于 Invezz</p>
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特朗普总统陷入了无计可施的困境