<p>周五，亚洲股市表现不一，投资者在油价上涨和霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势加剧的背景下，权衡对风险资产的持续需求。</p>
<p>脆弱的中东停火协议和未解决的美伊紧张关系使交易者保持谨慎，即使华尔街近期的涨幅帮助防止了区域市场的更大回撤。</p>
<p>日本日经 225 指数上涨 0.71%，而东证指数上涨 0.30%，因日本核心通胀在五个月内首次加速，3 月份上升至 1.8%，伊朗战争加剧了能源担忧。</p>
<p>韩国 Kospi 指数下跌 0.23%，而小型股 Kosdaq 指数上涨 1%。香港恒生指数下跌 0.61%，中国 CSI 300 指数下跌 0.28%。</p>
<p>在澳大利亚，S&amp;P/ASX 200 指数下跌 0.29%。</p>
<p><strong>油价和航运风险仍然受到关注</strong></p>
<p>主要的不安来源仍然是油价。</p>
<p>由于对霍尔木兹海峡这一全球最重要能源瓶颈之一的航运中断的担忧，原油价格上涨。</p>
<p>即使没有全面的供应冲击，任何长期的船舶交通中断都可能加剧通货膨胀，给供应链带来压力，并使增长前景复杂化。</p>
<p>这使得市场在两种相互竞争的冲动之间保持平衡：一方面是对盈利的信心和风险偏好，另一方面是对能源、运输成本和通货膨胀的担忧。</p>
<p>停火协议本身对消除这种不确定性几乎没有作用。</p>
<p>市场继续将其视为暂停而非解决，油价仍然是投资者评估重新升级风险的最清晰实时指标。</p>
<p><strong>货币和政策前景</strong></p>
<p>货币市场同样谨慎，投资者关注更高的能源价格是否开始重塑利率前景。</p>
<p>这使得人们关注中央银行如何在通货膨胀风险与持续的地缘政治压力对增长的更广泛影响之间取得平衡。</p>
<p>对于看涨的投资者来说，这创造了一个尴尬的背景。</p>
<p>原油价格的再次上涨可能会促使政策制定者更加谨慎，而任何较软的增长信号可能会重新激发今年晚些时候采取更宽松政策的理由。</p>
<p><strong>投资者接下来关注的内容</strong></p>
<p>当前的重点是三个动态因素：霍尔木兹的事态发展、油价走势以及全球股市是否能够继续吸收地缘政治冲击而不要求更高的风险溢价。</p>
<p>目前，周五的混合交易表明信心仍然有限：市场并未回撤，但也不再像以前那样轻松上涨。</p>

恒生指数

2 倍做空日圓 ETF - ProShares

<p>亚洲股市在周五表现不一，投资者对油价上涨和霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势作出反应。恒生指数下跌 0.61%，而日本日经 225 指数上涨 0.71%。尽管华尔街近期有所上涨，但对能源供应中断和通胀的担忧使交易者保持谨慎。市场仍然不确定，风险偏好与地缘政治压力之间的平衡，重点关注油价和霍尔木兹的最新动态</p>

<p>Asian equities were mixed on Friday as investors weighed firmer oil prices and renewed tension around the Strait of Hormuz against a still-resilient appetite for risk assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五，亚洲股市表现不一，投资者在油价上涨和霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势加剧的背景下，权衡对风险资产的持续需求。</p>
</div><p>A fragile Middle East ceasefire and unresolved US-Iran tensions kept traders cautious, even as recent gains on Wall Street helped prevent a broader retreat in regional markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>脆弱的中东停火协议和未解决的美伊紧张关系使交易者保持谨慎，即使华尔街近期的涨幅帮助防止了区域市场的更大回撤。</p>
</div><p>Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.71%, while the Topix added 0.30% after core inflation in Japan accelerated for the first time in five months, rising to 1.8% in March, with the Iran war adding to energy concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本日经 225 指数上涨 0.71%，而东证指数上涨 0.30%，因日本核心通胀在五个月内首次加速，3 月份上升至 1.8%，伊朗战争加剧了能源担忧。</p>
</div><p>South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.23%, while the small-cap Kosdaq rose 1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined 0.61%, while China’s CSI 300 lost 0.28%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韩国 Kospi 指数下跌 0.23%，而小型股 Kosdaq 指数上涨 1%。香港恒生指数下跌 0.61%，中国 CSI 300 指数下跌 0.28%。</p>
</div><p>In Australia, the S&amp;P/ASX 200 was down 0.29%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在澳大利亚，S&amp;P/ASX 200 指数下跌 0.29%。</p>
</div><p><strong>Oil and shipping risks stay in focus</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>油价和航运风险仍然受到关注</strong></p>
</div><p>The main source of unease remained oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要的不安来源仍然是油价。</p>
</div><p>Crude prices climbed as concerns persisted over shipping disruption through Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于对霍尔木兹海峡这一全球最重要能源瓶颈之一的航运中断的担忧，原油价格上涨。</p>
</div><p>Even without a full supply shock, any prolonged disruption to vessel traffic risks feeding inflation, straining supply chains and complicating the outlook for growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使没有全面的供应冲击，任何长期的船舶交通中断都可能加剧通货膨胀，给供应链带来压力，并使增长前景复杂化。</p>
</div><p>That has left markets balancing two competing impulses: confidence in earnings and risk appetite on one side, and concern over energy, transport costs and inflation on the other.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得市场在两种相互竞争的冲动之间保持平衡：一方面是对盈利的信心和风险偏好，另一方面是对能源、运输成本和通货膨胀的担忧。</p>
</div><p>The ceasefire itself has done little to remove that uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>停火协议本身对消除这种不确定性几乎没有作用。</p>
</div><p>Markets continue to treat it more as a pause than a resolution, with oil still acting as the clearest real-time gauge of how seriously investors view the risk of renewed escalation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场继续将其视为暂停而非解决，油价仍然是投资者评估重新升级风险的最清晰实时指标。</p>
</div><p><strong>Currencies and policy outlook</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>货币和政策前景</strong></p>
</div><p>Currency markets were similarly cautious, with investors watching whether higher energy prices begin to reshape the rate outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>货币市场同样谨慎，投资者关注更高的能源价格是否开始重塑利率前景。</p>
</div><p>That keeps attention on how central banks may balance inflation risks against any broader hit to growth from sustained geopolitical stress.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得人们关注中央银行如何在通货膨胀风险与持续的地缘政治压力对增长的更广泛影响之间取得平衡。</p>
</div><p>For bullish investors, that creates an awkward backdrop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于看涨的投资者来说，这创造了一个尴尬的背景。</p>
</div><p>A renewed rise in crude could argue for more caution from policymakers, while any softer growth signals could revive the case for easier policy later in the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油价格的再次上涨可能会促使政策制定者更加谨慎，而任何较软的增长信号可能会重新激发今年晚些时候采取更宽松政策的理由。</p>
</div><p><strong>What investors are watching next</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>投资者接下来关注的内容</strong></p>
</div><p>The immediate focus is on three moving parts: developments in Hormuz, the path of oil prices and whether global equities can keep absorbing geopolitical shocks without demanding a higher risk premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前的重点是三个动态因素：霍尔木兹的事态发展、油价走势以及全球股市是否能够继续吸收地缘政治冲击而不要求更高的风险溢价。</p>
</div><p>For now, Friday’s mixed trading suggests conviction remains limited: markets are not in retreat, but they are no longer pushing higher with the same ease.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，周五的混合交易表明信心仍然有限：市场并未回撤，但也不再像以前那样轻松上涨。</p>
</div>

恒生指数下跌，因亚洲市场在权衡油价飙升和霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势